Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 12 Rankings
|
1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET (at IND)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has now caught at least one touchdown in eight consecutive games. That streak and last week's overall WR1 performance have enabled St. Brown to enter Week 12 trailing only Ja'Marr Chase among wide receivers in total fantasy points. With Chase on a bye this week, St. Brown is a logical candidate to be this week's top fantasy wideout. Even if he falls short of that lofty perch, fantasy managers should continue to trust St. Brown as an elite WR1. This week's matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts should only help St. Brown, who thrives against zone coverage.
|
|
2.
Justin Jefferson
MIN (at CHI)
Justin Jefferson has underwhelmed in two straight games. But even when that is the case, he is still posting starter-level production. Jefferson has scored more than 11 points in nine of 10 games and his worst weekly finish is WR33. Jefferson has a tough Week 12 matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts this year. But Jefferson is about as matchup-proof as it gets at the wide receiver position. He should continue to post huge numbers once again in Week 12.
|
|
3.
A.J. Brown
PHI (at LAR)
Some negative touchdown regression is largely to blame for A.J. Brown finishing 36th or worse among wide receivers in fantasy points in three of his last four games. A Week 12 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams could help cure Brown's recent end zone drought. The Rams have allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Only three NFL teams have allowed more. Brown is always a threat to score, and a touchdown would push him into WR1 territory this week.
|
|
4.
Nico Collins
HOU (vs . TEN)
After missing over a month of action due to a hamstring injury, Nico Collins returned to the lineup last week. He appeared to make an immediate impact, scoring a 77-yard touchdown on Houston's first play from scrimmage. But the play was called back due to a penalty. The Texans went on to win handily and did not need Collins to do much heavy lifting. Collins ended the night with four catches for 54 yards. Some better fortune should be in store for Houston's top wideout when the team takes on the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been tougher against the run than the pass, which should open up opportunities for Collins in this matchup.
|
|
5.
Puka Nacua
LAR (vs . PHI)
Since returning to the Rams lineup last month, Puka Nacua has finished as a top-20 fantasy wideout in three of four games. His miss was notable because Nacua was ejected in that game early for throwing a punch. Nacua continues to produce whenever he is on the field. The Rams have a tough matchup in Week 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles. But head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford are savvy enough to be able to get their wide receivers involved. I would not hesitate to start both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp this week.
|
|
6.
Tyreek Hill
MIA (vs . NE)
Everyone has choices to make in life. Some good and well, some not so good. We'll file the New England Patriots coaching staff's decision not to shadow Puka Nacua with Christian Gonzalez last week under not-so-good. In Week 5, Christian Gonzalez followed Tyreek Hill on 78% of his routes, limiting him to four receptions and 59 scoreless receiving yards. We'll see if they let Gonzalez shadow him or allow Hill to destroy them this week. Since Tagovailoa's return, Hill has had a 20% target share, a 38.4% air-yard share, 2.03 YPRR, and a 25.6% first-read share. He has four end-zone targets across his last four games. If you have Hill, you're starting him weekly in nearly every instance.
|
|
7.
Cooper Kupp
LAR (vs . PHI)
As is the case with teammate Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp has produced in every full game he has played since returning from an early-season injury. Kupp peaked with last week's overall WR2 weekly performance and has 80 yards and/or a touchdown in five of six games this season. A matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles and rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell looks in Week 12 for Kupp and the Rams. Kupp and Nacua line up all over the formation, so it is difficult to assume one gets shut down. That means that even in a difficult draw, Kupp should continue to be an elite fantasy wide receiver in this game.
|
|
8.
DK Metcalf
SEA (vs . ARI)
DK Metcalf returned to action last week after missing two games due to injury. Metcalf resumed his normal workload in Seattle, catching seven balls for 70 yards. He has been somewhat boom-or-bust this season from a fantasy standpoint. Metcalf has three top-10 fantasy finishes but has finished outside the top 24 in his other five games. It is hard to argue against Metcalf's upside, especially with many prominent wideouts having a Week 12 bye. Because of that, Metcalf is a borderline WR1 despite some inconsistent weekly results.
|
|
9.
Mike Evans
TB (at NYG)
Mike Evans is scheduled to return to the lineup for the first time since aggravating a hamstring injury early in Week 7. A lack of volume seemed to be Evans' biggest issue early in the year, as he was often a touchdown-dependent starter. But Evans will return to a team that is now without Chris Godwin for the season. That could enable Evans to see more targets going forward, boosting his fantasy value. His Week 12 prospects are favorable facing a New York Giants defense that ranks 31st in DVOA versus number-one wideouts this year. Provided no setbacks, fantasy managers should feel comfortable starting Evans this week despite the layoff.
|
|
10.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
SF (at GB)
Samuel has finished as a WR2 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in four of his nine games played this season. Samuel has an 18.5% target share, 2.06 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. He is eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), in the eight games Samuel has played at least 62.7% of the snaps, he has had a 19% TPRR and 1.94 YPRR against two high. The 49ers should look to feature Samuel's dynamic run after the catch ability this week against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 12th-highest missed tackle rate per reception and the 14th-highest yards after the catch per reception. Among 56 qualifying receivers, Samuel ranks second in yards after the catch per reception and 15th in missed tackles forced per reception. Since Week 6, Green Bay has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target, but Samuel's unique skillset and run-after-the-catch ability can overcome a tough matchup.
|
|
11.
George Pickens
PIT (at CLE)
Pickens is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has a 26.9% target share, a 47% air-yard share, 2.69 YPRR, and a 35.9% first-read share. Since Week 6, Cleveland has utilized single-high at the 11th-highest rate (55.3%). Against single high, Pickens has seen his target share jump to 31.7%, his YPRR rise to 3.25, and his first-read share climb to 41.1%. Since Week 6, Cleveland has been eaten alive by perimeter wide receivers, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game.
|
|
12.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL (at WAS)
With Cooper Rush at quarterback over the last two games, Lamb has had a 24.7% target share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 36.8% first-read share. Last week, he had a bounceback game as the WR14 for the week. Lamb has two red zone targets and an end zone target in this sample. Lamb is a volume-infused WR2 moving forward who faces a Washington pass defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
13.
Malik Nabers
NYG (vs . TB)
Nabers is the WR9 in fantasy points per game, ranking second in deep targets among wide receivers. He hasn't seen a red zone target since Week 4, which is more of an indictment against the offense than it is with Nabers' role within the offense. Nabers has a 33.8% target share, a 49.5% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 43.7% first-read share. If he can get competent quarterback play from Tommy DeVito this week, he should slay the Bucs secondary. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
14.
Terry McLaurin
WAS (vs . DAL)
I'm willing to toss last week in the trash for McLaurin. He has been so good this season that one game shouldn't deter us from playing him. McLaurin is the WR21 in fantasy points per game while ranking sixth in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. Among 71 qualifying receivers, he is 13th in separation and 14th in route win rate. McLaurin has a 20.9% target share, 2.43 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share. McLaurin should have a strong bounceback game this week against a Dallas secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
15.
Courtland Sutton
DEN (at LV)
Sutton is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Since Week 5, Sutton has had a 22.1% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 30.6% first-read share. Since Week 7, the Raiders have moved toward more two high coverage with the fourth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 5, against two high, Sutton has had a 21.1% target share and 27.3% first-read share, but his YPRR has dropped off a table to 0.85. He'll get plenty of volume this week, but it's questionable how efficient he'll be with it. Since Week 6, the Raiders have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
16.
Zay Flowers
BAL (at LAC)
Flowers has had the breakout season that I hoped for as the WR22 in fantasy points per game. Flowers ranks 11th among wide receivers in deep targets, but he has only had two red zone looks in his last nine games. It's a big reason why he only has four touchdowns this season (18th among wide receivers). Flowers has a 24.2% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and a fantastic 29.1% first-read share. The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Flowers' numbers have dropped off the table with a 20.3% target share and 1.35 YPRR while seeing his first-read share jump to 26.1%. While Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins just ripped the Chargers secondary apart, they have been a tough assignment. Since Week 6, the Bolts' secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target.
|
|
17.
Ladd McConkey
LAC (vs . BAL)
McConkey is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, with WR3 or higher weekly finishes in five of his last seven games. He has a 22.2% target share, 2.44 YPRR, and a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 4, he has four red zone targets. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Against two high, McConkey leads the team with a 21.3% target share with 1.72 YPRR and a stellar 25% first-read share. He should roast a Baltimore secondary that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
|
|
18.
Jayden Reed
GB (vs . SF)
Reed is the WR16 in fantasy points per game with ten deep targets this season. He hasn't seen a red-zone look since Week 6. Overall, he has a 16.6% target share, 2.80 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 56.2% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 6, against these coverages, Reed has ranked third on the team in TPRR (20%) and YPRR (2.53) and second in first-read share (18.8%). This doesn't project to be a "big Reed week." Since Week 6, San Francisco has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
|
|
19.
Jauan Jennings
SF (at GB)
Since his return, Jennings has been amazing, averaging 20.7 fantasy points per game while soaking up a 32.8% target share and a 41.3% first-read share with 2.71 YPRR and 92 receiving yards per game. Jennings has seven deep targets and nine red zone looks in his eight games played. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), Jennings has led the team in TPRR (29%) and YPRR (3.29). Jennings should be a focal point of the passing attack again this week. Jennings will have to deal with Green Bay's talented secondary that, since Week 6, has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target.
|
|
20.
Jameson Williams
DET (at IND)
After last week's monster game, Williams is the WR27 in fantasy points per game. He has eight deep targets in eight games played, but he hasn't had a red zone target since Week 2. Williams has a 17% target share, 2.51 YPRR, and a 24.4% first-read share. Since Week 9, Indy has leaned into two high with the 12th-highest rate (52.6%). Williams has destroyed two high with a 22.7% target share, 2.96 YPRR, and a 30.8% first-read share. His abilities against two high was a big reason I was so high on him last week, and he's primed to smash again. Since Week 6, Indy has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
21.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARI (at SEA)
Harrison Jr. has stumbled to WR37 in fantasy points per game this season. Among wide receivers, he ranks tenth in deep targets, but he has only five red zone targets this season, with only one over his last six games. His splits against single high and two high coverage have been pronounced. Recently, those splits have improved some, which could lead to a better day for Harrison Jr. in Week 12 than many expect. Since Week 7, against two high, he has had a 20% target share, 2.16 YPRR, and a team-leading 33.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, Seattle has utilized two high at the 12th-highest rate (50%). This is a neutral matchup for Harrison Jr. Since Week 6, Seattle has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
22.
Calvin Ridley
TEN (at HOU)
Since Week 8, Ridley has been the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 34th in separation and 24th in route win rate (among 94 qualifying wide receivers). Across his last four games, he has had a 30.4% target share, a 51.7% air-yard share, 2.69 YPRR, and a 39.1% first-read share. He has also seen two end-zone targets. Houston has two weeks this season where they have heavily deployed two high, but for most of the season, they have been based around single high coverage. In Weeks 2-10, they have utilized single-high with 61.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Ridley has had a 38.7% target share, 3.95 YPRR, and a 46.8% first-read share. He should crush this week if Levis can feed him catchable targets. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
23.
Tank Dell
HOU (vs . TEN)
Last week, with Collins back in the lineup, Dell had a 20.6% target share, a 37.9% air-yard share, 2.0 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. Dell finished as the WR41 for the week. Dell has six red zone targets in his last six games played. He has been rounding into form as the season has moved along. Since Week 6, among 76 qualifying wide receivers, Dell has ranked sixth in separation and first in route win rate. Dell should excel this week against a Tennessee secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
24.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA (vs . ARI)
Smith-Njigba continues to explode in his sophomore season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game. He has eight red zone targets across his last seven games played. Since Week 7, Arizona has had the 11th-highest two-high rate (50%). Smith-Njigba has been Seattle's go-to weapon against two high with a team-leading 23.5% target share, 2.19 YPRR, and a 24.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, Arizona has still struggled against slot receivers, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in passer rating when targeted (106.1). Smith-Njigba should lead the way for Seattle's aerial assault this week.
|
|
25.
DeVonta Smith
PHI (at LAR)
In Philly's run-centric offense, Smith has dropped to the WR31 in fantasy points per game. He has failed to surpass seven fantasy points in three of his last five games. Yes, he has three scores across his last seven games, but you can't count on touchdown production like that when the player's red zone has essentially been zilch, and they are dependent upon big plays. Since Week 3, Smith has had one red zone target. Since Week 6, Smith has had a 20.1% target share, a 24.4% air-yard share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. It's a great matchup this week for Smith, so maybe he can rattle off a big play or two and pay off despite my volume concerns. Since Week 6, the Rams have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
26.
DeAndre Hopkins
KC (at CAR)
Hopkins route share has now trended downward for three straight games, from 62% to 51.4% last week. His first-read share has also taken a nosedive from 28% in Week 9 to only 11.1% last week. These trends are nightmare fuel for a player who looked like he was trending toward a high-volume role in the Chiefs offense weekly. Last week, Hopkins had a 12.1% target share, 1.61 YPRR, and 29 receiving yards. He has become a volatile flex quickly. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while sitting at 18th in fantasy points per game given up to the position.
|
|
27.
DJ Moore
CHI (vs . MIN)
Since Week 8, Moore has had a 19.8% target share, 0.94 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Last week, Moore had a 22.6% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and he was third on the team with a 25.9% first-read share. 57.1% of his targets were designed (no other wide receiver had above a 12.5% designed target rate. Moore's aDOT was only 0.9 yards. Thomas Brown was feeding him underneath designed looks which will help his PPR value, but it could hurt his ceiling weekly. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Moore's underneath role won't be great this week, though. Since Week 6, Minnesota has also given up the sixth-lowest yards after contact per reception and the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate per reception (ninth-lowest yards after the catch). Moore will have issues creating after the catch this week.
|
|
28.
Quentin Johnston
LAC (vs . BAL)
Last week, Johnston saw a season-high eight targets while producing a familiar two receptions, 48 receiving yards, and a score stat line. Last week, Johnston tied McConkey for the team lead in first-read share (31.8%). Overall, as the WR36 in fantasy points per game, Johnson has a 17.3% target share with 2.01 YPRR and a 24.1% first-read share. Johnston has only two red zone targets across his last six games. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Against two high, ranks third on the team in target share (12.1%) and first-read share (19.6%) while leading the way with 2.18 YPRR. Johnston is a high-upside flex this week against a Ravens secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
29.
Josh Downs
IND (vs . DET)
There's no slowing down or stopping Downs' breakout season as the WR17 in fantasy points per game. Downs has finished outside the top 31 fantasy wide receivers in weekly scoring only once since Week 4. He is 11th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Downs has a 24.9% target share, 2.58 YPRR, and a 31.4% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Lions have had the fourth-highest rate of single-high (60%). Against single-high, Downs has seen his YPRR increase to 2.76. Downs should have another banner day against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
|
|
30.
Jakobi Meyers
LV (vs . DEN)
Since Week 4, Meyers has been the WR27 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 24.6% target share with 1.78 YPRR and a 32.5% first-read share. He has two end zone targets in his last five games played. In his last meeting with Denver, Patrick Surtain followed him on 50% of his routes. With Surtain on him, he had only two targets, securing one with 18 scoreless receiving yards. Meyers finished with nine targets, six receptions, and 72 scoreless receiving yards. Surtain only followed Drake London on 50% of his routes last week, so we might see Surtain in Meyers' back pocket at a similar clip as their last meeting. Since Week 6, Denver has ranked 16th in PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
31.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA (vs . NE)
Since Tagovailoa's return, Waddle has only had a 13.1% target share, 1.30 YPRR, and a 14.4% first-read share. I don't know why Miami refuses to throw Waddle the ball, but it's not happening. Could that change this week if Gonzalez shadows Hill? Sure, it is a possibility. If Tagovailoa does feed Waddle, he should have plenty of success against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
32.
Christian Watson
GB (vs . SF)
Watson is coming off a game where he led the team with a 23.5% target share and 33.3% first-read share. He had a 76.1% air-yard share and 150 receiving yards. Overall, Watson has an 11.5% target share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 13.8% first-read share. He has three red zone targets in his last five games. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 56.2% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 6, against these coverages, Watson has ranked second in TPRR (22%), first in YPRR (3.91), and third in first-read share (16.7%). We'll see if Watson can continue his otherworldly efficiency against these coverages this week. He'll need to if he wants to walk away from Week 12 with a strong game against a tough opponent. Since Week 6, the 49ers have been shutting down perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to the position.
|
|
33.
Rome Odunze
CHI (vs . MIN)
Last week, Odunze led the team with a 32.3% target share, a 53.6% air-yard share, 2.17 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. Odunze's takeover has been slowly coming since after the bye. I've discussed his first-read share leading the way in various games since Chicago's bye. Since Week 8, Odunze has been tied for second on the team with a 27.3% first-read share and tied for the team lead with two end-zone targets. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. If Williams can have a productive game in Week 12, Odunze could smash.
|
|
34.
Cedric Tillman
CLE (vs . PIT)
With Winston under center, Tillman has been the WR8 in fantasy points per game. He has commanded a 20.1% target share and 23.8% first-read share with four end-zone targets (team-leading) and 73.7 receiving yards per game. Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (73.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Tillman has ranked second on the team with a 24.6% target share, 2.46 YPRR, and a 25.5% first-read share. The question for Tillman and Jerry Jeudy this week is, "Who will Joey Porter Jr. shadow?" Porter Jr. has followed six receivers this season on at least 65.2% of their routes. In his primary coverage, only one receiver surpassed 50 receiving yards, and he allowed only one receiving touchdown. The possible shadow coverage adds some volatility to Tillman's projection this week. Whoever avoids shadow coverage should eat this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
35.
Jerry Jeudy
CLE (vs . PIT)
In his three games with Winston under center, Jeudy has been the WR10 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn a 21.6% target share and 25.7% first-read share (team-leading) with 2.18 YPRR and 98 receiving yards per game. Jeudy has earned two end-zone targets and one red-zone target during this stretch. Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (73.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Jeudy has had a 29.8% target share, 3.93 YPRR, and a 34% first-read share. The question for Tillman and Jerry Jeudy this week is, "Who will Joey Porter Jr. shadow?" Porter Jr. has followed six receivers this season on at least 65.2% of their routes. In his primary coverage, only one receiver surpassed 50 receiving yards, and he allowed only one receiving touchdown. The possible shadow coverage adds some volatility to Jeudy's projection this week. Whoever avoids shadow coverage should eat this week. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
36.
Romeo Doubs
GB (vs . SF)
Doubs is the WR52 in fantasy points per game with three weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seven deep targets this season, but he has had a red zone target since Week 7. Overall, he's had a 17.4% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 22.3% first-read share. Since Week 4, the 49ers have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 56.2% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 6, against these coverages, Doubs has led the team with a 27% TPRR while ranking second in YPRR (2.61) and first in first-read share (29.2%). Doubs should lead the way through the air for Green Bay this week. Since Week 6, the 49ers have been shutting down perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to the position.
|
|
37.
Xavier Worthy
KC (at CAR)
Last week, Worthy saw his role change again with a 15.2% target share, a 32.4% air-yard share, 2.44 YPRR, and a 22.2% first read share. His aDOT, which had rested between 17-23 yards in the previous two weeks, fell to 14.2. His role more closely resembled the one he was playing in Week 8 and the few games after Rashee Rice's injury. The Kansas City passing attack seems in flux as Andy Reid is moving players around to different roles to see how all the pieces fit. It wouldn't shock me if Worthy moved back into the MVS role in Week 12 and was back to running clearouts for most of the game. Like Hopkins, Worthy is a volatile flex this week. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while sitting at 18th in fantasy points per game given up to the position.
|
|
38.
Jordan Addison
MIN (at CHI)
Addison is the WR43 in fantasy points per game with ten deep targets and four red zone targets in his eight games played. He has three red zone targets in his last three games. Addison has a 17% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. Since Week 4, Chicago has utilized single high at the third-highest rate (62.4%). Against single high, Addison's first-read share has increased to 23.6%, but his YPRR has dropped to 1.34. Since Week 6, Chicago has ranked 16th in fantasy points per game and allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Don't expect a massive Addison stat line in Week 12.
|
|
39.
Keenan Allen
CHI (vs . MIN)
Last week, Allen had a 25.8% target share (second on the team) with a 30.3% air-yard share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 29.6% first-read share (tied for first). Allen has only one red zone target over his last four games. Allen remains a decent but not awesome flex play weekly. Since Week 6, Minnesota has ranked 15th in PPR points per target and 17th in passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
|
|
40.
DeMario Douglas
NE (at MIA)
In his four full games played with Maye, Douglas has had a 66.3% route share, a 20.1% target share, 2.11 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share. He has zero end-zone targets and only one red-zone target in those four games. His chances of scoring a touchdown are slim weekly. Douglas is a PPR flex play only. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
|
|
41.
Xavier Legette
CAR (vs . KC)
Since Week 8, Legette has had a 19.1% target share, a 30.9% air-yard share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 22.1% first-read share. In that small stretch, Legette finished as a WR3 twice (WR33, WR28) in weekly scoring and saw two red zone targets. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Since Week 8, against two high, Legette's target share has fallen to 17.1% and his YPRR has dropped to 1.32. Sit Legette this week. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
42.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND (vs . DET)
Since Week 4, Pittman hasn't had more than 63 receiving yards in any game. He hasn't hit double-digit fantasy points or seen a red zone target since Week 6. It's been a tough season for Pittman, and he has struggled to stay healthy. Pittman has a 21.1% target share, 1.51 YPRR, and a 23.5% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Lions have had the fourth-highest rate of single-high (60%). Against single-high, Pittman has seen his YPRR drop to 1.37 and his first-read share fall to 21.5%. He's a must-sit this week against a secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
43.
Rashod Bateman
BAL (at LAC)
Bateman is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with four weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring (WR19, WR35, WR2, WR12). He has a 14.9% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. He is third on the team in end-zone targets (four). The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Bateman ranks second on the team with a 16.3% target share, first in YPRR (2.79), and second in first-read share (15.9%). Bateman could lead the way against the Bolts' pass defense this week. Despite it being a tough matchup, Bateman's efficiency and talent could overcome the matchup. Since Week 6, the Bolts' secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target.
|
|
44.
Tyler Lockett
SEA (vs . ARI)
Lockett is the WR50 in fantasy points per game with nine deep targets and seven red zone targets in his ten games played. He has five red zone targets in his last five games. Lockett has a 13.1% target share, 1.40 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share. Since Week 6, Arizona has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Lockett this week.
|
|
45.
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG (vs . TB)
Since Week 5, Robinson has been the WR55 in fantasy points per game. With Theo Johnson factoring into the passing game more, Robinson has seen his target share dip some with a 19.3% target share, 1.01 YPRR, 32.8 receiving yards per game, and a 24.2% first-read share. Across his last six games, he has seen four red zone targets and zero end-zone targets. Robinson is a decent flex play this week, especially in PPR formats. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the second-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
|
|
46.
Noah Brown
WAS (vs . DAL)
Brown is the WR72 in fantasy points per game with two WR3 or higher weekly finishes this season (WR23, WR35). In his nine games played, he has six deep targets and three red zone targets. Since Week 3, Brown has had a 15.9% target share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share. Since Week 3, Dallas has ranked eighth in single high rate (56.9%). During that same timeframe, against single-high, Brown has had a 16.9% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. Brown is a viable flex play this week against a Dallas secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
47.
Elijah Moore
CLE (vs . PIT)
With Winston under center, Moore has been the WR28 in fantasy points per game. He has seen a 20.9% target share with 1.57 YPRR and a 22.9% first-read share. Moore has had two end-zone targets. Since Week 6, the Steelers have had the highest single-high rate in the NFL (73.5%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Moore has seen a 17.5% target share and 19.1% first-read share with 1.70 YPRR. Moore could see a target bump with one of the Browns' receivers receiving the Joey Porter Jr. treatment this week, but the Steelers have turned into a tough matchup for slot receivers over the last few weeks. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
|
|
48.
Ricky Pearsall
SF (at GB)
With Jauan Jennings back, Pearsall has had a 10.9% target share, 1.52 YPRR, 36.5 receiving yards per game, and a 15.2% first-read share. Since Week 6, Green Bay has been 11th in two high rate (51.6%). Against two high (minimum 40 routes), Pearsall has ranked fourth on the team with a 16% TPRR and only 1.0 YPRR. Pearsall is a must-sit this week. Since Week 6, Green Bay has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target.
|
|
49.
Alec Pierce
IND (vs . DET)
Ok, we're back for another edition of "Is it time to flex Alec Pierce." Is the team bad against deep passing? Ok, let's check. Detroit has allowed the second-lowest passer rating and the ninth-lowest deep completion rate. Well, it's definitely not time to flex Pierce, then. 46.5% of his target volume this season has come via deep passing. Sit him this week, and thanks for coming to my Pierce talk.
|
|
50.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TEN (at HOU)
Westbrook-Ikhine has been on a touchdown heater with five scores in his last six games, but this isn't the week to chase that flukey touchdown production. Houston has two weeks this season where they have heavily deployed two high, but for most of the season, they have been based around single high coverage. In Weeks 2-10, they have utilized single-high with 61.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 8, against single-high, Westbrook-Ikhine has had an 11.3% target share, 0.79 YPRR, and an 8.5% first-read share. Keep Westbrook-Ikhine on the bench this week.
|
|
51.
Jalen Coker
CAR (vs . KC)
In his last game before the bye, Coker saw a 32% target share and 36.4% first-read share, producing 1.64 YPRR. Only 62.5% of his target volume was deemed catchable. Bryce Young's level of quarterback play remains a concern, but if Coker is going to see this type of volume weekly, we need to stand up and take notice. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Against two high, Coker is second on the team with 1.73 YPRR and leads the team in FD/RR with 0.090. Coker should fight Ja'Tavion Sanders for the team lead in targets this week. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Adam Thielen should return this week, but I think Coker holds onto the primary slot role while his perimeter snaps might tick up a tad.
|
|
52.
Joshua Palmer
LAC (vs . BAL)
|
|
53.
Darius Slayton
NYG (vs . TB)
In the seven games Darius Slayton has played alongside Malik Nabers, he has had an 11.8% target share, 1.34 YPRR, and an 8.9% first-read share. In that sample, he has only once finished higher than WR36 in weekly fantasy scoring. The matchup is fantastic for Slayton this week, but as the third or maybe fourth option in a Tommy DeVito offense, he's a thin play that is only reserved for extremely deep leagues and the most desperate fantasy GMs. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
54.
Kayshon Boutte
NE (at MIA)
|
|
55.
Devaughn Vele
DEN (at LV)
Since Week 5, Vele has had an 11.8% target share, 1.98 YPRR, and a 14.8% first-read share. He could lead the way for Denver's passing attack this week. Since Week 7, the Raiders have moved toward more two high coverage with the fourth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 5, against two high, his target share has risen to 12.9% with a whopping 3.44 YPRR and a 17.6% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Vele is a very strong flex play this week.
|
|
56.
Demarcus Robinson
LAR (vs . PHI)
Robinson has come back down to earth over the last two weeks. Since Week 10, he has had a 9.6% target share, 0.71 YPRR, and a 10.4% first-read share. He has seen two end-zone targets, but he has only managed 21 receiving yards per game with zero touchdowns. Robinson is a must-sit this week against a Philly secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
57.
Michael Wilson
ARI (at SEA)
Wilson is a low-end flex not worth worrying about this week. He has been a fringe flex option all year as the WR70 in fantasy points per game. He hasn't had more than 31 receiving yards in any game since Week 5. Since Week 6, Seattle has utilized two high at the 12th-highest rate (50%). Since Week 7, against two high, Wilson has had only a 12.7% target share, 0.67 YPRR, and a 15.2% first-read share. Since Week 6, Seattle has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Leave Wilson on the waiver wire or the bench for Week 12.
|
|
58.
Tre Tucker
LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
59.
Jalen McMillan
TB (at NYG)
McMillan opened this week with a full practice session (hamstring). He could be back this week. I'll update his outlook on Friday.
|
|
60.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB (vs . SF)
|
|
61.
Jalen Tolbert
DAL (at WAS)
|
|
62.
Kendrick Bourne
NE (at MIA)
|
|
63.
Adam Thielen
CAR (vs . KC)
Thielen opened this week with another limited practice session (hamstring). He is supposed to be back this week, but it is concerning he still hasn't ramped up to full practices yet. I'll update his outlook on Friday.
|
|
64.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DEN (at LV)
|
|
65.
Calvin Austin III
PIT (at CLE)
|
|
66.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN (at LV)
|
|
67.
Adonai Mitchell
IND (vs . DET)
|
|
68.
John Metchie III
HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
69.
Troy Franklin
DEN (at LV)
|
|
70.
Justin Watson
KC (at CAR)
|
|
71.
Mike Williams
PIT (at CLE)
Last week, Mike Williams only played 32% of the snaps and didn't draw a target. I need a prove-it game from Williams before I'm willing to stick him in a flex spot in a lineup. It has been a tough season for Williams, who has only eclipsed 40 receiving yards in a game once this season.
|
|
72.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
KC (at CAR)
|
|
73.
Jalen Nailor
MIN (at CHI)
|
|
74.
Odell Beckham Jr.
MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
75.
Sterling Shepard
TB (at NYG)
Shepard has only had an 8.1% target share and a 9.4% first-read share this season. He hasn't eclipsed 60 receiving yards in any game this season and has only one red zone target across his last six games. Shepard is in the Darius Slayton level of flex desperation this week. Since Week 6, the Giants have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers, so the matchup is glorious, but Shepard's profile should leave everyone questioning whether he can take advantage of it in Week 12.
|
|
76.
Tim Patrick
DET (at IND)
|
|
77.
Diontae Johnson
BAL (at LAC)
Mike Tomlin wasn't wrong. You have to be part of the game plan and on the field for an opposing coach to worry about you. The same can be said for Fantasy GMs. Until Johson sees his playing time ramp up more, he's unplayable for fantasy. Last week, he had a 17.1% route share, which is a fancy way to say he ran six routes. That isn't going to cut it.
|
|
78.
Tyler Boyd
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
79.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL (at WAS)
|
|
80.
Malik Washington
MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
81.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
82.
Ja'Lynn Polk
NE (at MIA)
|
|
83.
Nelson Agholor
BAL (at LAC)
|
|
84.
Kalif Raymond
DET (at IND)
|
|
85.
David Moore
CAR (vs . KC)
|
|
86.
Jahan Dotson
PHI (at LAR)
|
|
87.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
KC (at CAR)
|
|
88.
Tutu Atwell
LAR (vs . PHI)
|
|
89.
Luke McCaffrey
WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
90.
DJ Turner
LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
91.
Greg Dortch
ARI (at SEA)
|
|
92.
Van Jefferson
PIT (at CLE)
|
|
93.
Dyami Brown
WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
94.
Jalen Reagor
LAC (vs . BAL)
|
|
95.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
96.
Rakim Jarrett
TB (at NYG)
|
|
97.
Tyler Johnson
LAR (vs . PHI)
|
|
98.
Robert Woods
HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
99.
Tylan Wallace
BAL (at LAC)
|
|
100.
Ryan Flournoy
DAL (at WAS)
|
|
101.
Trey Palmer
TB (at NYG)
|
|
102.
Bo Melton
GB (vs . SF)
|
|
103.
Jake Bobo
SEA (vs . ARI)
|
|
104.
Jalen Brooks
DAL (at WAS)
|
|
105.
Zay Jones
ARI (at SEA)
|
|
106.
Ashton Dulin
IND (vs . DET)
|
|
107.
Jonathan Mingo
DAL (at WAS)
|
|
108.
Ryan Miller
TB (at NYG)
|
|
109.
Derius Davis
LAC (vs . BAL)
|
|
110.
Jalin Hyatt
NYG (vs . TB)
|
|
111.
Brandin Cooks
DAL (at WAS)
|
|
112.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
MIN (at CHI)
|
|
113.
Josh Reynolds
DEN (at LV)
|
|
114.
Johnny Wilson
PHI (at LAR)
|
|
115.
Bryce Oliver
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
116.
Brandon Powell
MIN (at CHI)
|
|
117.
Ainias Smith
PHI (at LAR)
|
|
118.
Ben Skowronek
PIT (at CLE)
|
|
119.
K.J. Osborn
NE (at MIA)
|
|
120.
DJ Chark Jr.
LAC (vs . BAL)
|
|
121.
DeAndre Carter
CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
122.
Ramel Keyton
LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
123.
Jamari Thrash
CLE (vs . PIT)
|
|
124.
Jha'Quan Jackson
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
125.
Malik Heath
GB (vs . SF)
|
|
126.
Jordan Whittington
LAR (vs . PHI)
|
|
127.
Deven Thompkins
CAR (vs . KC)
|
|
128.
Chris Conley
SF (at GB)
|
|
129.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
SEA (vs . ARI)
|
|
130.
Cody White
SEA (vs . ARI)
|
|
131.
Javon Baker
NE (at MIA)
|
|
132.
River Cracraft
MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
133.
Treylon Burks
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
134.
Kadarius Toney
CLE (vs . PIT)
|
|
135.
Zach Pascal
ARI (at SEA)
|
|
136.
Allen Robinson II
DET (at IND)
|
|
137.
Jaelon Darden
CLE (vs . PIT)
|
|
138.
Tyler Scott
CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
139.
Ronnie Bell
SF (at GB)
|
|
140.
Jacob Cowing
SF (at GB)
|
|
141.
Justin Shorter
LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
142.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
143.
Xavier Smith
LAR (vs . PHI)
|
|
144.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
NYG (vs . TB)
|
