Fantasy Football Player Notes

New year. New quarterback. New wide receivers are flanking Moore. Tons of change for the Chicago passing attack this offseason, but Moore should still be considered the favorite to lead the way for Windy City's aerial attack. Last season, he was the WR9 in fantasy points per game while setting new career highs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. He also shined on a per-route basis, ranking 13th in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Moore faces a pass defense with new coordinator Dennard Wilson calling the shots. Last year, Wilson was with Baltimore as their defensive backs' coach. Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Last year against two high, Moore had a 24.6% target share, a 46% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 38% first-read share. With the additions of Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, those market share numbers will undoubtedly come back down to earth some. His YPRR mark against two-high was ranked 34th out of 97 qualifying wide receivers last year, so he was good but not elite. Moore will run about 78% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L'Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).

Allen enters a new offensive system while attempting to build rapport with his rookie quarterback. He could become a trusted weapon for Caleb Williams immediately. Last year, he was WR3 in fantasy points per game, second in target share (30.7%), and 11th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. The target share will come down. The question is how much in 2024. Allen could lead the way against Tennessee in Week 1, as his numbers last year remained stellar against two-high. New defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson was the defensive backs coach for Baltimore last year. Last season, Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Allen, against two high last season, had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.48 YPRR (10th-best), and 0.109 FD/RR (17th-best). Allen could out-target Moore in Week 1. Allen is dealing with a heel issue. He practiced in full on Friday, but he has been listed as questionable.

There should be no worries AT ALL about Odunze's talent, but he could get squeezed for targets this season surrounded by Moore and Allen. In his final season in college, Odunze ranked 18th in YPRR and 8th in PFF receiving grade. We still have no idea how much 11 personnel Chicago will run and who will be the starter opposite Moore when the team rolls into two wide sets. Odunze is a decent flex based on talent, but if at all possible I'm sitting him this week. We need to see what his role and snap share look like before tossing him into starting lineups. Odunze likely runs most of his routes on the perimeter against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L'Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).