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Fantasy Football Player Notes

Week 1 Rankings

Zay Flowers Note
Zay Flowers photo 30. Zay Flowers (at KC)
There will be plenty of matchups to be bullish regarding Flowers' outlook, but this isn't one of them. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Flowers scorched single-high last season, but his numbers against two-high were pedestrian. Against this coverage type, he only garnered a 19.6% target share and a 20.2% air-yard share while producing 1.12 yards per route run with Mark Andrews in the lineup. Look for Andrews to lead the way this week as he dominates two-high matchups for Baltimore. Flowers will run about 69% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating). It's also possible Flowers draws shadow coverage from McDuffie.
34 weeks ago
DeAndre Hopkins Note
DeAndre Hopkins photo 41. DeAndre Hopkins (at KC)
Hopkins is dealing with a knee injury, but he's expected to play in Week 1, according to the latest reports I've read. He practiced on a limited basis all week and has been listed as questionable. Last year, he was the WR29 in fantasy points per game. With Will Levis under center last year (Weeks 8-15), he saw a 26.9% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, and produced 2.40 yards per route run as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Those market share numbers will drop some with Calvin Ridley in town. Hopkins was the only main show in town last season. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it's tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4 with Levis under center, Hopkins had a 29.8% target share, 3.0 YPRR, a 37.6% first-read share, and 0.102 FD/RR. Hopkins will run about 79% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating)
33 weeks ago
Rashod Bateman Note
Rashod Bateman photo 66. Rashod Bateman (at KC)
Bateman is the sneaky flex play in this game. Last year, his overall numbers weren't great, but he was extremely effective against two-high coverage. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Against two-high, Bateman had an 18% target per route run rate, which was only a small tick behind Flowers (19%), but Bateman produced 1.82 yards per route run while also ranking second on the team against two-high with 0.34 fantasy points per route run. With a strong total and a close (ish) spread, there will be scoring in this game, and if Baltimore can keep up their end of that bargain, Bateman should be part of the scoring onslaught. He will run most of his routes on the boundary against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating).
34 weeks ago
Tylan Wallace Note
Tylan Wallace photo 151. Tylan Wallace (at KC)
Keith Kirkwood Note
Keith Kirkwood photo 211. Keith Kirkwood (at KC)

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