Fantasy Football Player Notes

Some negative regression appears to have hit Derrick Henry in recent weeks, but the Ravens' running back has kept his touchdown-scoring streak intact. Henry has found paydirt in all 11 games Baltimore has played this year. We will see strength versus strength when Baltimore travels to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles has only given up two touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. That is the fewest in the NFL. It is hard to envision a scenario where fantasy managers should bench Henry this week, but expectations should probably be tempered a bit given the difficult matchup.

Flowers has had the breakout season that I hoped for as the WR22 in fantasy points per game. Flowers ranks 11th among wide receivers in deep targets, but he has only had two red zone looks in his last nine games. It's a big reason why he only has four touchdowns this season (18th among wide receivers). Flowers has a 24.2% target share, 2.29 YPRR, and a fantastic 29.1% first-read share. The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Flowers' numbers have dropped off the table with a 20.3% target share and 1.35 YPRR while seeing his first-read share jump to 26.1%. While Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins just ripped the Chargers secondary apart, they have been a tough assignment. Since Week 6, the Bolts' secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target.

Bateman is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with four weeks as a WR3 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring (WR19, WR35, WR2, WR12). He has a 14.9% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. He is third on the team in end-zone targets (four). The Chargers have utilized two high at the second-highest rate (61.3%) in the NFL. Against two-high, Bateman ranks second on the team with a 16.3% target share, first in YPRR (2.79), and second in first-read share (15.9%). Bateman could lead the way against the Bolts' pass defense this week. Despite it being a tough matchup, Bateman's efficiency and talent could overcome the matchup. Since Week 6, the Bolts' secondary has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest PPR points per target.

Last week, Andrews saw his route share drop back into a familiar area (57.1%) that he has lived at for much of the season. Since Week 5, he has seen seven red zone targets, a 14.1% target share, and a 15.3% first-read share while producing 2.23 YPRR and 22.9 receiving yards per game. Andrews is only a low-end TE1 this week with a horrible matchup. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers remain the only defense in the NFL that hasn't allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end.

Last week, Likely had a 51.4% route share with an insane 28% TPRR, which resulted in a 15.2% target share. The route share is replicable moving forward, but the target earning rate isn't. I don't want to roll the dice with Likely against a defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers remain the only defense in the NFL that hasn't allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end.

Mike Tomlin wasn't wrong. You have to be part of the game plan and on the field for an opposing coach to worry about you. The same can be said for Fantasy GMs. Until Johson sees his playing time ramp up more, he's unplayable for fantasy. Last week, he had a 17.1% route share, which is a fancy way to say he ran six routes. That isn't going to cut it.