Fantasy Football Player Notes

Walker soldered on through a bunch of injuries last year to still finish as a rock-solid RB2 (RB20). He dealt with a bruised shoulder, a strained oblique, a chest issue, and a tender calf last season. In the 14 games he played at least 41% of the snaps, he averaged 17.3 touches and 82 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs last year, Walker was 21st in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt. He should have no issues carving up the Broncos run defense that allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-most missed tackles per attempt last season.

Metcalf has proven at this point that his floor is as a safe WR2. Last year, he finished another successful campaign as the WR22 in fantasy. He was 22nd in YPRR, 23rd in first read share, and 20th in FD/RR last season. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Metcalf ate last year against single-high with a 26.1% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, 2.71 YPRR, and 12 end zone targets. We don't know if Ryan Grubb will deploy Seattle's wide receivers in a similar fashion, but Metcalf has a compelling case to keep his number-one role against single-high. Metcalf could be shadowed by Patrick Surtain (62.9% catch rate and 93.9 passer rating) in this game. Surtain followed eight receivers last year on at least 63% of their routes, with only Tyreek Hill and D.J. Moore surpassing 70 receiving yards in his primary coverage. If Metcalf isn't shadowed, he'll see Surtain and Riley Moss (only one target defended last year) for most of the game.

My disdain for Shane Waldron's usage of Smith-Njigba last year has been well-documented. No big deal. All he did was take a baller, a first-round pick, and turn him into Malachi Corley. He neutered him into a low aDOT screen merchant. Smith-Njigba was seventh in screen targets last season, with 52.3% of his target volume coming via screens. This is not the way. Ryan Grubb will change this. In the small sample, we got with Smith-Njigba as a perimeter wide receiver, he was very good. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers last season, when he was running routes on the perimeter, Smith-Njigba ranked 15th in YPRR and fourth in TPRR. Among 61 qualifying receivers with at least 40 perimeter targets, he also ranked 14th in FD/RR. Smith-Njigba did run 89.5% of his routes in the preseason from the slot, so I do still project him to be the team's slot with more perimeter time this season possible. Smith-Njigba could be leaned on this week if Metcalf draws shadow coverage from Surtain. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Last year against single-high, when Smith-Njigba was aligned outside against single-high, he posted a 28% TPRR and 1.97 YPRR, so there is some proof in the pudding that he can excel against single-high. Smith-Njigba should run circles around Ja'Quan McMillian (61.2% catch rate and 109.4 passer rating) from the slot in Week 1.

Lockett continued his downward trend last year. His YPRR has dropped in each of the last three seasons, with last year's mark being his lowest since 2017. Last year, he managed a WR37 finish in fantasy points per game while ranking 40th in receiving yards per game and 36th in first downs per route run. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Last year, against single-high, Lockett had a 20.7% target share, 1.67 YPRR, a 25% first-read share, and 0.086 FD/RR. Lockett could remain the second option against single high this year behind Metcalf, but my money is on Smith-Njigba taking over that role. He practiced on a limited basis all week before getting upgraded to full on walkthrough Friday.

Last year, Fant was locked into a tight-end committee situation, but he should be the primary tight end this season. Last year, Fant was the TE36 in fantasy points per game with a 14% TPRR, 1.38 YPRR, and 0.054 FD/RR. None of those metrics scream STREAM ME IN WEEK 1, but the matchup is pretty good as Denver bled out production to tight ends last year, allowing the seventh-highest yards per reception and the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Fant is a low-end streaming option in deep leagues this week.