Fantasy Football Player Notes

Harris was his usual consistent self last season. He finished with his third consecutive season with at least 1,000 rushing yards, eight total touchdowns, and 1,200 total yards. That didn't equate to a smash season, though, as he was the RB30 in fantasy points per game as he split work with Jaylen Warren. Warren will still be a thorn in his side for 2024. What gets lost in the Harris discussion, though, is that he arguably had one of his best seasons on a per-touch basis of his career. Among 49 qualifying backs, he was 10th in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris could have a tough time in Week 1 against a stout Falcons' run defense. While Atlanta allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and 13th-most rushing yards per game, they were a tough team overall to run on. They faced the sixth-most rushing attempts last year and held opposing rushers at bay with the sixth-highest stuff rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles forced, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Harris will have to rely on volume this week.

Pickens should lead the way for Pittsburgh's aerial attack this season. We got a small snippet of what that might look like last year when Dionate Johnson missed time with an injury. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, he produced 3.0 yards per route run, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, he saw three end zone targets and had a ridiculous 38.4% first-read share. Those market share numbers could all be repeated in 2024. We'll see about the efficiency numbers that Pittsburgh's quarterback play could vastly impact. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pickens had a 21.5% target share, 2.87 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. All of these are stellar marks. Pickens will run about 83% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (57.9% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (61.9% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating).

Warren sounds like he is trending toward playing Week 1, but I'd monitor injury reports for the rest of the week. I'll update his status as we get more information. The Steelers could definitely use his explosive skill set against the Falcons. Last year, Warren ranked third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. He was also 12th in yards per route run and fifth in targets per route run. While he was the RB29 in fantasy points per game last season, he also finished as an RB2 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in 50% of his games. Atlanta was a tough run defense to face last year with the sixth-highest stuff rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles forced, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Warren is an RB3/flex.

Last year wasn't exactly the type of season anyone hoped for, Freiermuth. He finished as the TE27 in fantasy points per game before a hamstring issue derailed his season. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, Freiermuth ranked 23rd in target share, 34th in yards per route run, and 28th in first downs per route run. The hope candle has been lit again for the 2024 season, but I have my worries. We have all seen what Arthur Smith does with player usage. I won't rule out Darnell Washington cutting into Freiermuth's snaps and routes more than anyone wants to see. If Freiermuth retains an every-down role, the matchup is nice for Week 1. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, when Freiermuth was healthy, he saw a 12% target share and 14.2% first read share producing 1.25 yards per route run. None of these numbers are amazing, but Morris's defense could be vulnerable to tight ends in 2024. The Falcons have upgraded their defense this offseason, but they still surrendered the fourth-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends last year.