Metcalf has proven at this point that his floor is as a safe WR2. Last year, he finished another successful campaign as the WR22 in fantasy. He was 22nd in YPRR, 23rd in first read share, and 20th in FD/RR last season. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Metcalf ate last year against single-high with a 26.1% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, 2.71 YPRR, and 12 end zone targets. We don't know if Ryan Grubb will deploy Seattle's wide receivers in a similar fashion, but Metcalf has a compelling case to keep his number-one role against single-high. Metcalf could be shadowed by Patrick Surtain (62.9% catch rate and 93.9 passer rating) in this game. Surtain followed eight receivers last year on at least 63% of their routes, with only Tyreek Hill and D.J. Moore surpassing 70 receiving yards in his primary coverage. If Metcalf isn't shadowed, he'll see Surtain and Riley Moss (only one target defended last year) for most of the game.

Pickens should lead the way for Pittsburgh's aerial attack this season. We got a small snippet of what that might look like last year when Dionate Johnson missed time with an injury. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, he produced 3.0 yards per route run, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, he saw three end zone targets and had a ridiculous 38.4% first-read share. Those market share numbers could all be repeated in 2024. We'll see about the efficiency numbers that Pittsburgh's quarterback play could vastly impact. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pickens had a 21.5% target share, 2.87 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. All of these are stellar marks. Pickens will run about 83% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (57.9% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (61.9% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating).

Warren sounds like he is trending toward playing Week 1, but I'd monitor injury reports for the rest of the week. I'll update his status as we get more information. The Steelers could definitely use his explosive skill set against the Falcons. Last year, Warren ranked third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. He was also 12th in yards per route run and fifth in targets per route run. While he was the RB29 in fantasy points per game last season, he also finished as an RB2 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in 50% of his games. Atlanta was a tough run defense to face last year with the sixth-highest stuff rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles forced, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Warren is an RB3/flex.

Last year wasn't exactly the type of season anyone hoped for, Freiermuth. He finished as the TE27 in fantasy points per game before a hamstring issue derailed his season. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, Freiermuth ranked 23rd in target share, 34th in yards per route run, and 28th in first downs per route run. The hope candle has been lit again for the 2024 season, but I have my worries. We have all seen what Arthur Smith does with player usage. I won't rule out Darnell Washington cutting into Freiermuth's snaps and routes more than anyone wants to see. If Freiermuth retains an every-down role, the matchup is nice for Week 1. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, when Freiermuth was healthy, he saw a 12% target share and 14.2% first read share producing 1.25 yards per route run. None of these numbers are amazing, but Morris's defense could be vulnerable to tight ends in 2024. The Falcons have upgraded their defense this offseason, but they still surrendered the fourth-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends last year.