George Pickens Week 1 Outlook - Steelers at Falcons

By Derek Brown (FantasyPros), Wed, Sep 4th 2024, 8:38pm EDT

Pickens should lead the way for Pittsburgh's aerial attack this season. We got a small snippet of what that might look like last year when Dionate Johnson missed time with an injury. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, he produced 3.0 yards per route run, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, he saw three end zone targets and had a ridiculous 38.4% first-read share. Those market share numbers could all be repeated in 2024. We'll see about the efficiency numbers that Pittsburgh's quarterback play could vastly impact. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pickens had a 21.5% target share, 2.87 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. All of these are stellar marks. Pickens will run about 83% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (57.9% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (61.9% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating).