Fantasy Football Player Notes

White was a volume king last year, which helped propel him to RB10 in fantasy. He ranked fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities. He also ranked top-ten in carries (second), targets (ninth), and red zone touches (ninth). The problem when we look at his 2023 season is that his efficiency was objectively bad. Among 49 qualifying backs, White ranked 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 40th in explosive run rate, and 45th in yards after contact per attempt. White could get similar volume in 2024, and if so, that starts in Week 1. Washington's defense is an enigma for 2024 with new personnel and a new scheme with Dan Quinn's arrival. Even with all of that, I don't think the Commanders' run defense will be a top-shelf unit, as they were a bottom-five collection last season. In 2023, Washington allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt with the eighth-lowest stuff rate. White could volume his way to an RB1 week to begin the 2024 season.

Godwin stumbled out of the gate last year, which led to his WR34 finish in fantasy points per game, but I think we need to focus more on how he ended the season. After Week 13, he turned up the heat, closing the season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 28.7% target share, 83.6 receiving yards per game, 2.79 yards per route run, and 0.133 first downs per route run. That scorching hot conclusion to last year also coincided with his move back to the slot more (36.1% vs. 44%). Godwin should be the team's starting slot this year, which will benefit him. Dan Quinn likely utilizes single-high at a high rate this year after encompassing 64.9% and 57.1% of his defensive snaps over the last two years with Dallas. Last year in Weeks 14-18, against single high, Godwin led the team with 2.45 YPRR and 0.125 FD/RR and was second behind only Mike Evans in target share (19.1%) and first-read share (21.1%). Godwin will match up with rookie Mike Sainristill for most of Week 1. The floor and ceiling are high for Godwin to open this season.

Otton was a weekly streaming possibility last year as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. He managed four TE1 performances last year. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 27th in target share, 26th in receiving yards per game, and 46th in YPRR. Sadly, this isn't a week to consider Otton for your starting lineups. Last year, Washington was tough against tight ends, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game.

I wasn't high on McMillan as a prospect, but he played well in the preseason. He has a glorious matchup in Week 1. This preseason, he had a 37.5% TPRR while ranking 13th in receiving grade and 11th in YPRR. The entire Washington secondary was in shambles last year, and it doesn't look much better entering Week 1. McMillan will see Benjamin St. Juste (68% catch rate and 102.9 passer rating) and Michael Davis (65.5% catch rate and 119.8 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day. Washington allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to wide receivers last year.