Fantasy Football Player Notes

Mike Evans is scheduled to return to the lineup for the first time since aggravating a hamstring injury early in Week 7. A lack of volume seemed to be Evans' biggest issue early in the year, as he was often a touchdown-dependent starter. But Evans will return to a team that is now without Chris Godwin for the season. That could enable Evans to see more targets going forward, boosting his fantasy value. His Week 12 prospects are favorable facing a New York Giants defense that ranks 31st in DVOA versus number-one wideouts this year. Provided no setbacks, fantasy managers should feel comfortable starting Evans this week despite the layoff.

Since Week 7, Irving has been the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.5 touches and 70.5 total yards per game. He has played 39% of the snaps overall per game while averaging 50.6% of the rushing play snaps, 33.3% of the passing down snaps, and 40% of the snaps inside the ten-yard line. The Bucs have utilized him perfectly, with 54.2% of his rushing attempts coming on gap runs. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Irving should post another tasty stat line in Week 12. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs.

Since Week 7, White has been the RB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.3 touches and 70.8 total yards. He has averaged 56% of the snaps overall while playing 47.2% of the rushing play snaps, 60.2% of the passing down snaps, and 65% of the snaps inside the ten-yard line. Among 53 qualifying backs, White ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. White has a glorious matchup this week against a Giants run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (White 62.5% zone).

Most NFL teams look forward to their bye weeks to ease the wear and tear on players' bodies. But fantasy managers were probably not happy about having to bench Cade Otton last week. Otton had posted three top-five fantasy finishes in four weeks before Tampa Bay's Week 11 bye. While Otton should be able to pick up where he left off, it is worth noting that his hot streak coincided with injuries to wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Evans should be back this week. Monitor Otton's volume this week with Evans back, but do not let Evans' return prevent you from starting Otton. The New York Giants rank 27th in the league in DVOA versus opposing tight ends.

McMillan practiced in full all week (hamstring) and doesn't have an injury designation entering Week 12. In his last game action in Week 8, he had a 14% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, 0.83 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. McMillan could have a big week against a Giants secondary that, since Week 6, has allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and struggled to defend deep passing. McMillan is second on the team in deep targets, behind only Mike Evans. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most deep passing yards per game, a perfect passer rating to deep passing (158.3), and the highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.

Shepard has only had an 8.1% target share and a 9.4% first-read share this season. He hasn't eclipsed 60 receiving yards in any game this season and has only one red zone target across his last six games. Shepard is in the Darius Slayton level of flex desperation this week. Since Week 6, the Giants have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers, so the matchup is glorious, but Shepard's profile should leave everyone questioning whether he can take advantage of it in Week 12.