Fantasy Football Player Notes

We can't dance around this fact. Ridley was a disappointment last year in Fantasy Football, but hey, it's a new season and a chance for Ridley to reenter Fantasy GMs' good graces. He was the WR27 in fantasy points per game while also ranking as the WR14 in expected fantasy points per game. His market share numbers were passable (21.6% target share, 38% air-yard share), but his per-route efficiency was horrendous. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he was 44th in yards per route run and 42nd in first downs per route run. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it's tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Ridley had a 25% target per route run rate (TPRR), 2.20 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.100 first downs per route run (FD/RR). Ridley will see Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.

I know what you're thinking..." Hey, this guy told me Pollard was his RB1 overall last year." Yep, I did. I'll own the L here. Tony Pollard was a massive disappointment. I didn't think it was possible for his tackle-breaking ability to go from stellar to putrid, but it happened. The reality is that he had the role that we coveted, though, and he should be considered the lead back for Tennessee entering this season. Last season, he was a volume-eating machine, ranking seventh in carries and 11th in targets among backs. The bright side is that in 2024, he could rebound and look much closer to the player we thought we were getting last year. Last season in Weeks 11-18, among 44 qualifying backs, Pollard ranked 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 21st in explosive run rate, and had the 11th-lowest stuff rate. Unfortunately, if the Bears continue to field a similarly dominant run defense this year as they did in 2023, Pollard could start slow in Week 1. Last year, Chicago had the fifth-highest stuff rate while holding backs to the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and third-lowest explosive run rate.

Spears lines up as a decent flex/RB3 for Week 1. He'll have to rely on his big play ability (which Spears can do), as the matchup is brutal. Last year, he was fifth in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He proved that he can be a matchup nightmare in the passing game as well, ranking seventh in target share, 10th in TPRR, and 17th in YPRR. With the rushing matchup looking like nightmare fuel for the Titans' backs, Spears could outscore Pollard in Week 1 if the team leans into his receiving chops. Last year, Chicago had the fifth-highest stuff rate while holding backs to the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and third-lowest explosive run rate. The Bears were abysmal at stopping backs through the air, giving up the highest yards per reception, the second-most receptions, and the most receiving yards.

Last year, Boyd limped to a WR59 finish in fantasy points per game. He managed to draw only a 15.1% target share with 39.2 receiving yards per game, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. He's a deep league flex only for Week 1. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Boyd had an 18% TPRR, 1.51 YPRR, and 0.053 FD/RR. None of these metrics inspire confidence against the Bears. Sit Boyd Week 1.

Okonkwo was the offseason tight end late-round darling last year. He failed to live up to the hype and hope last year. Despite that fact, he should be viewed as the Titans' clear starter at the position for this year. In Week 3 of the preseason with Will Levis under center, he logged a 72% snap rate and an 87.5% route per dropback rate. Last season, Okonkwo was the TE26 in fantasy points per game with a 15% target share, 1.47 YPRR, 0.069 FD/RR, and a 15.5% first-read share. He wasn't a huge part of their red zone offense, with only six looks all year (27th). That could change this season. Oknokwo could get off to a solid start in Week 1 against a Bears' defense that allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to slot tight ends last year (Okonkwo 57.5% slot in 2023) and the fourth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends overall. If you're looking for a tight end to stream in Week 1, Okonkwo makes a ton of sense.