Fantasy Football Player Notes

New year. New quarterback. New wide receivers are flanking Moore. Tons of change for the Chicago passing attack this offseason, but Moore should still be considered the favorite to lead the way for Windy City's aerial attack. Last season, he was the WR9 in fantasy points per game while setting new career highs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. He also shined on a per-route basis, ranking 13th in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Moore faces a pass defense with new coordinator Dennard Wilson calling the shots. Last year, Wilson was with Baltimore as their defensive backs' coach. Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Last year against two high, Moore had a 24.6% target share, a 46% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 38% first-read share. With the additions of Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, those market share numbers will undoubtedly come back down to earth some. His YPRR mark against two-high was ranked 34th out of 97 qualifying wide receivers last year, so he was good but not elite. Moore will run about 78% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L'Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).

Swift enters the 2024 season at the top of this running back depth chart for Chicago. That top spot could be more assumption and less reality though. Last year, Chicago utilized a full-blown committee, with Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and D'Onta Foreman all having moments in the sun. Swift was "good" last season, but he wasn't nearly as good as you might think at first glance. After monster games in Weeks 2 & 3, he proceeded to average only 16.8 touches and 72.4 total yards the rest of the season as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked only 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift could have a hard time finding running room in Week 1 against a Titans' defense that allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns, and the 13th-lowest missed tackles last season. They were also a shutdown defense against backs through the air with the fourth-fewest receptions while also sitting at 16th in yards per reception.

Allen enters a new offensive system while attempting to build rapport with his rookie quarterback. He could become a trusted weapon for Caleb Williams immediately. Last year, he was WR3 in fantasy points per game, second in target share (30.7%), and 11th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. The target share will come down. The question is how much in 2024. Allen could lead the way against Tennessee in Week 1, as his numbers last year remained stellar against two-high. New defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson was the defensive backs coach for Baltimore last year. Last season, Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Allen, against two high last season, had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.48 YPRR (10th-best), and 0.109 FD/RR (17th-best). Allen could out-target Moore in Week 1. Allen is dealing with a heel issue. He practiced in full on Friday, but he has been listed as questionable.

There should be no worries AT ALL about Odunze's talent, but he could get squeezed for targets this season surrounded by Moore and Allen. In his final season in college, Odunze ranked 18th in YPRR and 8th in PFF receiving grade. We still have no idea how much 11 personnel Chicago will run and who will be the starter opposite Moore when the team rolls into two wide sets. Odunze is a decent flex based on talent, but if at all possible I'm sitting him this week. We need to see what his role and snap share look like before tossing him into starting lineups. Odunze likely runs most of his routes on the perimeter against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L'Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).

It might be time to panic if you drafted Kmet or have plans that he will be a top 12-15 fantasy tight end this season. Yes, last year, he was the TE9 in fantasy points per game. Last season, among 51 qualifying tight ends, Kmet ranked 12th in target share, seventh in yards per route run, and 10th in first downs per route run. He was the clear second option in the passing game. That WILL NOT happen in 2024 if everyone stays healthy. In the preseason, he only ran a route on 35% of Caleb Williams' pass attempts as Gerald Everett got involved. Even if you want to ignore that, his matchup is brutal for Week 1. Last year, Tennessee allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Sit Kmet.