Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Mixon was the RB11 in fantasy, ranking eighth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and seventh in weighted opportunities. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 37th in yards after contact per attempt, and 10th in zone run success rate. Mixon was also 20th in target share and 26th in YPRR among 48 qualifying backs last season. Mixon should see a bump to his zone rushing rate this season. Last year, Cincy utilized zone for 39.2% of their rushing plays versus Houston's 45.9% rate. The bump in zone rushing won't help him this week against Indy. Last year, Indy allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game with the ninth-lowest stuff rate, but gap runs gashed them. They held fast against zone with the seventh-lowest success rate and yards per carry allowed. Mixon, with his every-down workload, should be able to take advantage of their weakness against receiving backs, though. Indy allowed the eighth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to backs last year. Anyway, you slice it, Mixon is a strong volume play in Week 1.

Collins was nothing short of amazing last season as the WR7 in fantasy. He was basically Brandon Aiyuk of the AFC South, as he operated with an insane per-route efficiency. He was 12th in TPRR, second in YPRR, seventh in receiving yards per game, and fifth in FD/RR. When the offense was battered, and other skill players were out with injuries, he was able to command alpha-level volume. Collins could have a boom game out the gate for Houston, considering Indy's love for single-high last year. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Among Houston's starting trio of wide receivers, against single-high, Collins led the group in TPRR (31%), YPRR (3.83), and FD/RR (0.175). It wasn't particularly close in YPRR and FD/RR either. Collins will run about 79% of his routes against JuJu Brents (66.7% catch rate and 109.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating).

How good will Diggs be in Houston? Another year older. Now, he is competing with two amazing young wide receivers for volume. Can he keep up? We're about to get these questions answered. His falloff in the second half of the last two seasons can't be ignored at this point. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Diggs finished as the WR45 or higher in weekly scoring only twice. During that stretch, he only had one game with more than 80 receiving yards while finishing as the WR52 in fantasy points per game. Ok, let's get to this Week 1 matchup with the Colts. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Diggs had a 30% TPRR, 2.16 YPRR, and 0.103 FD/RR. In those three categories versus Collins and Dell, Diggs ranks second, third, and third. While he might post a solid stat line in Week 1 because all of those marks are still quite strong, it could be Collins and Dell leading the way. Diggs will see JuJu Brents (66.7% catch rate and 109.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating) in coverage most of the game.

Dell was amazing last year and impactful once inserted into the starting lineup full-time. Last year, in the seven full games that Dell and Nico Collins played together, Dell bested him in every meaningful category. Dell led the duo in target share (22.5 vs. 22.1%), air-yard share (35.9 vs. 25.3%), weighted opportunity (59.0 vs. 50.9), and fantasy points per game (18.7 vs. 18.1). Overall last year Dell posted monster numbers in YPRR (2.40) and FD/RR (0.115) ranking 16th and 14th in these statistics. He should push Collins for the team lead in targets in Week 1 against Indy. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Dell had a 29% TPRR, 2.70 YPRR, and 0.122 FD/RR. Among Houston's starting wide receivers, he ranks third, second, and second in those categories. The biggest worry for Dell in this matchup is his matchup with Kenny Moore (79.3% catch rate and 98.3 passer rating) inside, as Dell projects as the team's starting slot receiver now with Diggs in town. Last year, Indy allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. It's a tough matchup, but it also has to be stated that Dell has the talent to overcome it.

There are only so many targets to go around weekly. If anyone is likely to get squeezed throughout the season in Houston's passing attack, it's Schultz. Schultz was the TE11 in fantasy last year. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 15th in target share, 11th in receiving yards per game, 14th in yards per route run, and 11th in first downs per route run. This matchup with Indy doesn't bode well for him, either. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Schultz had a 19% TPRR, 1.53 YPRR, and 0.089 FD/RR. None of these metrics are terrible, but they are all significantly behind the top three wideouts on this team. Also, add in that Mixon has a good matchup through the air, and Schultz could be the distant fifth option in the passing game in Week 1. Last year, Indy allowed the tenth-lowest yards per reception and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends.