Fantasy Football Player Notes

The offseason reports for Williams have been encouraging. I'm hoping for a bounceback season for Wiliams this year. Last year, he rolled up the volume (264 touches), but his efficiency was severely lacking. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Seattle offers a chance for Williams to get off to a wonderful start. The Seahawks were among the worst run defenses in the NFL last year, allowing the second-highest rushing yards per game, the third-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Williams is an RB2/3 who could outperform his ranking in Week 1.

Sutton will be the clear WR1 for the Broncos passing offense this year. Last year, he was the WR38 in fantasy points per game, which was largely fueled by touchdowns. Sutton had the 12th-most red zone targets, which he turned into the 10th-most total touchdowns among receivers. Outside of touchdowns, though, Sutton was very pedestrian. He was 39th in target share, 37th in yards per route run, 44th in receiving yards per game, and 38th in first downs per route run. With Mike Macdonald calling the defensive shots this season, I expect Seattle to move towards more two-high this season. Seattle, over the last two seasons, has featured this coverage with 44.4-44.7% of their defensive snaps. Baltimore utilized two high on 53.4% of their snaps last year (eighth-highest). The year prior, that mark was 50.2% for Baltimore. Last year, Sutton's numbers weren't great against two high with a 19% TPRR, 1.57 YPRR, and only 0.072 FD/RR. Sit Sutton if you can in Week 1. He'll see Tre Brown (63.8% catch rate and 94.1 passer rating) and Riq Woolen (62.1% catch rate and 81.1 passer rating) for most of the day.

King Jaleel is READY TO BE UNLEASHED! I've been talking about the Broncos passing down back since January. I can't wait to see him crush in this role in Sean Payton's offense. Last year, he was a magician on a per-touch basis, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and fourth in yards per route run. Payton has been as consistent as they come with featuring his back in the passing game. This will continue in 2024. Over the last nine seasons, Payton has coordinated an NFL offense; he has never finished lower than fourth in targets to the running back position. The Seahawks were among the worst run defenses in the NFL last year, allowing the second-highest rushing yards per game, the third-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. They also allowed the 10th-highest yards per reception and the ninth-most receiving yards to backs. McLaughlin is flex-worthy in Week 1 (especially in PPR leagues).

Mims was a rookie season flop. He finished as the WR91 in fantasy points per game, eclipsing a 50% snap rate only twice. His per-route numbers weren't great either, as he had a 14% TPRR, 1.50 YPRR, and 0.038 FD/RR. Baltimore utilized two high on 53.4% of their snaps last year (eighth-highest). With Mike MacDonald in Seattle now, I expect similar coverage usage this season. Against two high, Mims per route numbers were even worse with a 12% TPRR, 1,50 YPRR, and 0.034 FD/RR. Add on that Seattle allowed the third-fewest receiving touchdowns to slots last year while ranking 18th in PPR points per target, and Mims is a must-sit.