Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 12 Rankings
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1.
Travis Kelce
KC (at CAR)
The Buffalo Bills put the clamps on Travis Kelce last week, holding the Chiefs star to just eight scoreless yards. It was quite the departure from Kelce's recent form. In the three games before last week, Kelce had a total of 32 receptions for 254 yards. Expect Kelce's Week 12 numbers to more closely resemble those previous stat lines when Kansas City faces Carolina. In addition to their other deficiencies on defense, the Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Keep Kelce as an elite TE1 this week.
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2.
Brock Bowers
LV (vs . DEN)
Brock Bowers gets a Week 12 matchup with a tough Denver Broncos defense. Denver ranks third in the league in DVOA versus tight ends. However, that should not prohibit Bowers from posting huge fantasy numbers this week. That is because Bowers is the focal point of the Raiders' passing offense. The dynamic rookie tight end was targeted 16 times in last week's loss to the Miami Dolphins. Bowers already beat the Broncos once this year, when he scored his first NFL touchdown en route to an 8-97-1 line. He finished as the overall TE2 for that week, and could very well do so again this week.
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3.
Trey McBride
ARI (at SEA)
Trey McBride enters Week 12 as holder of a bizarre stat. The Arizona Cardinals tight end has 49 catches and 552 receiving yards without a single receiving touchdown. McBride did rush for a short score a few weeks back, but fantasy managers would sure like McBride to get some end-zone looks. Even without catching any touchdown passes, McBride has been a top-12 quarterback in six of nine games. That should inspire confidence if some positive touchdown regression comes his way in the coming weeks. Fantasy managers should keep rolling McBride out as a TE1 in 10 and 12-team leagues.
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4.
George Kittle
SF (at GB)
George Kittle missed last week's loss due to a hamstring injury, but he practiced on Wednesday. That means he should be trending in the right direction in anticipation of a Week 12 meeting with the Green Bay Packers. As long as Kittle is available on Sunday, fantasy managers should not hesitate to reinsert him into starting lineups. Kittle has finished all eight games he has played as a top 10 weekly fantasy tight end. That trend is very likely to continue against a Packers defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in DVOA versus opposing tight ends this year.
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5.
Cade Otton
TB (at NYG)
Most NFL teams look forward to their bye weeks to ease the wear and tear on players' bodies. But fantasy managers were probably not happy about having to bench Cade Otton last week. Otton had posted three top-five fantasy finishes in four weeks before Tampa Bay's Week 11 bye. While Otton should be able to pick up where he left off, it is worth noting that his hot streak coincided with injuries to wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Evans should be back this week. Monitor Otton's volume this week with Evans back, but do not let Evans' return prevent you from starting Otton. The New York Giants rank 27th in the league in DVOA versus opposing tight ends.
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6.
David Njoku
CLE (vs . PIT)
Njoku has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game, with Winston slinging the rock. He has had a 17.2% target share with 1.47 YPRR and a 14.3% first-read share. He hasn't seen a red zone or end zone target with Winston as the starter. It's worth considering streaming options this week over Njoku. The Steelers have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest yards per reception to tight ends.
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7.
Dallas Goedert
PHI (at LAR)
Godert has remained a steady option despite Philly's run-heavy offense. He is the TE7 in fantasy points per game and has at least 10.5 PPR points in four of his last five games. Goedert has a 17.9% target share, has averaged 55.3 receiving yards per game, has 2.32 YPRR, and has a 21.1% first-read share. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranks eighth in separation and sixth in route win rate. He should be a strong TE1 again this week against a Rams secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. With DeVonta Smith ruled out, the passing tree gets more consolidated. Hurts could hyper-target A.J. Brown and Goedert this week, as both have plus matchups.
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8.
Hunter Henry
NE (at MIA)
In Maye's five full starts, Henry has had a 17.6% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a team-leading 22.6% first-read share. He has finished as a TE1 in four of those games (TE7, TE6, TE10, TE7). He has eight red zone targets in this small five-game sample. Henry should flirt with low-end TE1 value again this week against a defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
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9.
Jonnu Smith
MIA (vs . NE)
Since Week 8, Smith has had a 17.7% target share, 2.21 YPRR, two end zone targets, and a 20% first-read share. He is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 weeks this season. He ranks fifth in deep targets and 15th in red zone targets among tight ends. Smith has run 53% of his routes from the slot this season. New England has allowed the 14th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
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10.
Will Dissly
LAC (vs . BAL)
Since Week 6, Dissly has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks. He has had a 20.4% target share, 2.02 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share while seeing five red zone targets. Since Week 9, Baltimore has moved to heavy two-high usage with the seventh-highest rate (58%) in the NFL. Since Week 6, against two high, Dissly has led the team with a 22.5% target share and 25.9% first-read share while ranking second in YPRR (2.07). Dissly should cook again this week against a defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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11.
Sam LaPorta
DET (at IND)
LaPorta has practiced in full all week (shoulder) and doesn't carry an injury designation into Week 12. LaPorta is the TE15 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking fifth in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. He has an 11.6% target share, 2.01 YPRR, and a 12.8% first-read share. LaPorta should have a strong game against a pass defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
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12.
T.J. Hockenson
MIN (at CHI)
Since his Week 9 return, Hockenson has had one TE1 finish and two red zone targets. He has had a 57.1% route share, a 15.2% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 14.5% first-read share. Hockenson should flirt with low-end TE1 value in Week 12. Chicago has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
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13.
Mark Andrews
BAL (at LAC)
Last week, Andrews saw his route share drop back into a familiar area (57.1%) that he has lived at for much of the season. Since Week 5, he has seen seven red zone targets, a 14.1% target share, and a 15.3% first-read share while producing 2.23 YPRR and 22.9 receiving yards per game. Andrews is only a low-end TE1 this week with a horrible matchup. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers remain the only defense in the NFL that hasn't allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end.
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14.
Zach Ertz
WAS (vs . DAL)
Ertz is the TE12 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has finished as a TE1 in 55% of his games this season. Ertz has an 18.1% target share, 1.54 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. Among 43 qualifying tight ends, Ertz ranks third in separation and second in route win rate. It has been an impressive season for the veteran. He should flirt with TE1 value again this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed the highest yards per reception and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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15.
Tucker Kraft
GB (vs . SF)
Kraft is the TE10 in fantasy points per game while ranking sixth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has a 12.2% target share, 1.61 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. This is a week to consider streaming a tight end over Kraft. The 49ers have held tight ends to the fourth-lowest receiving yards per game, the lowest yards per reception, and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game.
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16.
Isaiah Likely
BAL (at LAC)
Last week, Likely had a 51.4% route share with an insane 28% TPRR, which resulted in a 15.2% target share. The route share is replicable moving forward, but the target earning rate isn't. I don't want to roll the dice with Likely against a defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Chargers remain the only defense in the NFL that hasn't allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end.
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17.
Cole Kmet
CHI (vs . MIN)
Since Week 8, Kmet has been squeezed out of the target pie with only a 6.3% target share, 0.62 YPRR, 17.3 receiving yards per game, and a 7.8% first-read share. Minnesota has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 13th-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Sit Kmet this week. He is getting close to being droppable in all redraft formats.
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18.
Dalton Schultz
HOU (vs . TEN)
Schultz couldn't get it done again last week with another nice matchup. He's been droppable in all formats. He has a 14.3% target share, 1.14 YPRR, and a 14.2% first-read share as the TE24 in fantasy. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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19.
Luke Schoonmaker
DAL (at WAS)
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20.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
CAR (vs . KC)
Sanders lands on the tight-end streaming radar this week. Since Week 6, he has had a 14.5% target share with 2.14 YPRR and a 12.4% first-read share. The matchup is glorious. The Chiefs have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.1%). Since Week 6, Sanders has led the team with 2.65 YPRR and a 28% TPRR against two high (minimum ten routes). Kansas City has also allowed the most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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21.
Pat Freiermuth
PIT (at CLE)
Freiermuth has disappointed this season as the TE21 in fantasy points per game. He has only three TE1 finishes this season. He has only two red zone targets since Russell Wilson has had the starting job. Since Week 7, he has had only a 7.4% target share, 1.11 YPRR, and an 8.5% first-read share. Cleveland is 16th in receiving yards per game and yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Freiermuth is droppable.
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22.
Theo Johnson
NYG (vs . TB)
Since Week 5, Johnson has had a 10.5% target share, 1.08 YPRR, averaged 30.6 receiving yards per game, and seen a 13.3% first-read share. He doesn't have an end-zone or red-zone target during this span, so his chances of scoring a touchdown are slim. Johnson makes the low end of the tight-end streaming list for Week 12 because the matchup is quite nice. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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23.
Noah Gray
KC (at CAR)
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24.
Chig Okonkwo
TEN (at HOU)
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25.
Davis Allen
LAR (vs . PHI)
Allen isn't worth a roster spot at this point. Since Week 10, he has had a 74% route share, an 8.2% target share, only 0.60 YPRR, and 17 receiving yards per game. That type of volume only has a pulse in fantasy in a wonderful matchup. Allen definitely doesn't have that this week. Philly has shut down tight ends, allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game.
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26.
Austin Hooper
NE (at MIA)
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27.
AJ Barner
SEA (vs . ARI)
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28.
Adam Trautman
DEN (at LV)
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29.
Darnell Washington
PIT (at CLE)
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30.
Lucas Krull
DEN (at LV)
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31.
Michael Mayer
LV (vs . DEN)
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32.
Brock Wright
DET (at IND)
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33.
Josh Whyle
TEN (at HOU)
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34.
Kylen Granson
IND (vs . DET)
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35.
Brevyn Spann-Ford
DAL (at WAS)
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36.
Cade Stover
HOU (vs . TEN)
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37.
Tommy Tremble
CAR (vs . KC)
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38.
Colby Parkinson
LAR (vs . PHI)
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39.
Jordan Akins
CLE (vs . PIT)
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40.
Eric Saubert
SF (at GB)
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41.
Johnny Mundt
MIN (at CHI)
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42.
Mo Alie-Cox
IND (vs . DET)
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43.
Grant Calcaterra
PHI (at LAR)
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44.
Elijah Higgins
ARI (at SEA)
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45.
Nate Adkins
DEN (at LV)
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46.
Julian Hill
MIA (vs . NE)
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47.
Tucker Fisk
LAC (vs . BAL)
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48.
Nick Vannett
TEN (at HOU)
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49.
Charlie Kolar
BAL (at LAC)
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50.
Durham Smythe
MIA (vs . NE)
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51.
Drew Ogletree
IND (vs . DET)
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52.
Ben Sims
GB (vs . SF)
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53.
Stone Smartt
LAC (vs . BAL)
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54.
John Bates
WAS (vs . DAL)
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55.
Gerald Everett
CHI (vs . MIN)
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56.
Hunter Long
LAR (vs . PHI)
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57.
Peyton Hendershot
KC (at CAR)
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58.
Pharaoh Brown
SEA (vs . ARI)
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59.
Ben Sinnott
WAS (vs . DAL)
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60.
Tip Reiman
ARI (at SEA)
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61.
Payne Durham
TB (at NYG)
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62.
MyCole Pruitt
PIT (at CLE)
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63.
Shane Zylstra
DET (at IND)
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64.
Daniel Bellinger
NYG (vs . TB)
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65.
Princeton Fant
DAL (at WAS)
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66.
Jaheim Bell
NE (at MIA)
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67.
Ko Kieft
TB (at NYG)
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68.
Connor Heyward
PIT (at CLE)
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69.
John FitzPatrick
GB (vs . SF)
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70.
Teagan Quitoriano
HOU (vs . TEN)
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71.
Nick Muse
MIN (at CHI)
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72.
Marcedes Lewis
CHI (vs . MIN)
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73.
Hayden Hurst
LAC (vs . BAL)
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74.
C.J. Uzomah
PHI (at LAR)
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75.
Chris Manhertz
NYG (vs . TB)
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76.
Tyler Mabry
SEA (vs . ARI)
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77.
Jordan Franks
FA (BYE)
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78.
Jake Tonges
SF (at GB)
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79.
Blake Whiteheart
CLE (vs . PIT)
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80.
Robert Tonyan
MIN (at CHI)
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81.
Jack Westover
NE (at MIA)
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82.
Brayden Willis
SF (at GB)
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