Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 12 Rankings
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1.
Jalen Hurts
PHI (at LAR)
Jalen Hurts failed to throw a touchdown pass last week but scored his ninth rushing touchdown in the last five games. That softened the blow a bit for fantasy managers, as Hurts posted his ninth top-15 weekly finish in 10 games. Hurts is dealing with a minor ankle injury, but that should not hinder him from posting another high-end performance when the Eagles face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12. The Rams have a below-average defense but should score enough points to keep Philadelphia aggressive on offense.
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2.
Lamar Jackson
BAL (at LAC)
Lamar Jackson had his worst fantasy day of the 2024 season in last week's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jackson should be able to bounce back this week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles ranks sixth in the NFL in defensive DVOA versus the pass, but they rank just 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Last week, they allowed Joe Burrow to score 29 fantasy points against them. The Chargers also tend to allow rushing production to the position. They have given up the ninth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year. Jackson should revert to his normal top-five status this week.
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3.
Jayden Daniels
WAS (vs . DAL)
Daniels has to be discussed this week after back-to-back QB24 weekly finishes in fantasy. Dan Quinn has stated that Daniels is healthy, but I don't know if I'm buying it. Since Week 8, Daniels has had at least an 18.2% off-target rate or higher in three of four games. Last week, his aDOT was a season-low of 3.7 yards. Over the last two weeks, Daniels has averaged only five rushing attempts and 11.5 rushing yards per game. In Weeks 1-9, in Daniels' full games played, he only once had less than eight rushing attempts and 35 rushing yards. I'm hoping we see Daniels look more like the ridiculously talented rookie that we have come to love, but I have my worries. If Daniels can bounce back, he should shred the Dallas pass defense. Since Week 6, the Cowboys have allowed the fourth-highest success rate per dropback, the highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest CPOE. Daniels should enjoy clean pockets against a defense that during that time frame has ranked 15th in pressure rate.
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4.
Justin Herbert
LAC (vs . BAL)
The ascension of Justin Herbert in fantasy circles continued in the Chargers' last-minute victory against Cincinnati last week. After finishing outside the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy points in five straight games to start the year, Herbert has now finished inside the top 20 in his last five. That includes four straight QB1 finishes in 12-team leagues. Herbert has a great chance to make it five in a row when the Chargers host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. Baltimore is a pass-funnel defense and has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Given Herbert's increased productivity of late, expect more of the same from the Chargers' signal-caller in this matchup.
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5.
Kyler Murray
ARI (at SEA)
Kyler Murray has lacked consistency from a fantasy perspective this year, but he has several spike weeks under his belt. Murray has finished inside the top-five in fantasy points among quarterbacks on four occasions this season. Arizona is coming off a bye and faces a Seattle Seahawks defense that is slightly below average. Murray does not have the safest weekly floor. But in a week where six NFL teams are on a bye, Murray is a solid starting option and worth consideration as a potential top-five fantasy quarterback.
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6.
Bo Nix
DEN (at LV)
The last time Nix faced the Raiders, he finished as the QB8 for the week while completing 70.4% of his passes with 7.6 yards per attempt and two passing scores. Since Week 5, Nix has been the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, among 36 qualifying passers, Nix has ranked 17th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, seventh in CPOE, and 6th in fantasy points per dropback. Nix should continue his hot streak this week. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.
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7.
Patrick Mahomes II
KC (at CAR)
Mahomes has been a QB1 in two of his last three games. Since Week 9, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 14th in passer rating, third in passing touchdowns, 13th in passing yards per game, and 17th in CPOE. Mahomes should flirt with low-end QB1 value again this week. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the 13th-highest success rate per dropback, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.
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8.
Jared Goff
DET (at IND)
Goff is the QB11 in fantasy points per game after last week's monster game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, fifth in CPOE, and third in fantasy points per dropback. Indy's pass defense has improved, but Goff has weapons to overcome this newly crowned tough matchup. Since Week 6, Indy has allowed the ninth-lowest CPOE, the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback, and the 12th-lowest yards per attempt.
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9.
Brock Purdy
SF (at GB)
Purdy is having another amazing season as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fourth in passing yards per game, third in yards per attempt, 13th in fantasy points per dropback, and eighth in hero throw rate. Purdy also has a tough challenge this week as the Packers' secondary has really gelled. Since Week 6, Green Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns and passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the 11th-lowest EPA per dropback. During that time, Green Bay has had the fourth-best pressure rate and the ninth-quickest time to pressure. Purdy has been good against pressure, ranking third in CPOE and seventh in fantasy points per dropback.
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10.
Baker Mayfield
TB (at NYG)
In two of Mayfield's last three starts, he has finished lower than QB16 for the week. He's played well, considering the weapons he's had at his disposal. Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate and 24th in CPOE. Mayfield should post a solid QB2 stat line this week against a burnable Giants' secondary. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest CPOE, and the 12th-highest EPA per dropback. Since Week 7, Tampa Bay has had the 11th-fastest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate. During the same stretch of games, New York has been fifth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
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11.
Geno Smith
SEA (vs . ARI)
Smith continues his volume-fueled fantasy assault as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Smith is third in passing attempts and first in passing yards per game. His per-dropback metrics aren't nearly as kind. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. Smith faces what has become a tough Arizona pass defense. Since Week 6, Arizona has kept quarterbacks in check with the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest CPOE, and the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed. Smith will still sit somewhere around the low-end QB1 territory with his extreme passing volume but don't expect an otherworldly or efficient performance.
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12.
Anthony Richardson
IND (vs . DET)
Last week, Richardson made his triumphant return to the starting lineup as the QB4 in fantasy for the week. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks last week, he ranked seventh in yards per attempt, 16th in catchable target rate, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback. This week he'll need all of the rushing equity he can get his hands against a tougher pass defense. Since Week 6, Detroit has kept passers in check with the fourth-lowest CPOE, the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, and the second-fewest passing touchdowns allowed.
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13.
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA (vs . NE)
Since Tagovailoa's return in Week 8, he has been QB22 in fantasy points per game. He has only finished as a QB1 once in that stretch (QB11). Since Week 8, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, 14th in CPOE, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. In this span, he has the second-lowest aDOT. Only Gardner Minshew has had a lower aDOT. Despite all of these factors, Tagovailoa could flirt with QB1 value again this week as New England's pass defense has been in the dumpster. Since Week 6, the Patriots have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE.
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14.
Jordan Love
GB (vs . SF)
Love is the QB7 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 finishes in five of his eight games played. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Love ranks seventh in yards per attempt, ninth in passing touchdowns, and 11th in CPOE and fantasy points per dropback. He could easily overcome a tough matchup in Week 12 to post another QB1 week, but make no mistake that he'll have a tough road to walk in Week 12. Since Week 6, the 49ers have remained a stout pass defense, allowing the second-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest passing yards per game.
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15.
C.J. Stroud
HOU (vs . TEN)
Stroud is the QB25 in fantasy points per game this season and hasn't finished as a QB1 since Week 4. Yes, you read that correctly. It hurt me as much to type it as it was for you to read it. I could write a novel regarding all of the reasons this has come to fruition, but we don't have time for all of that. I'll just say that missing his top wide receiver has hurt, along with operating behind an offensive line that has become Swiss cheese. In the five games Nico Collins has played at least 45% of the snaps, Stroud has had 7.58 yards per attempt, a 2.9% CPOE, 262 passing yards per game, and a 6:3 passing touchdown to interception ratio. These are all solid numbers that give me hope for Stroud this week with Collins in the starting lineup. As far as the offensive line, Houston has allowed the third-highest pressure rate this season, which should be less of a concern this week against a defense that has generated the tenth-lowest pressure rate. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the second-highest CPOE, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback. Stroud could be a QB1 this week.
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16.
Drake Maye
NE (at MIA)
Maye has finished as a QB1 in two of his five full NFL starts. He has rushed for at least 24 yards in five games. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 29th in yards per attempt, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Maye should at least return strong QB2 value this week with an outside shot of finishing as a QB1 if he can stack some rushing production. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the tenth-most passing yards per game, the 13th-highest CPOE, and the tenth-highest success rate per dropback.
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17.
Matthew Stafford
LAR (vs . PHI)
Stafford has been a new quarterback with all of his weapons back, with at least 18.9 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He likely doesn't keep that streak up this week as he runs into a buzzsaw named the Philly pass defense. Since Week 8, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, 20th in CPOE, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 6, Philly has held quarterbacks to the lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, the second-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE. Stafford will have a difficult day ahead of him, but he has the weapons at his disposal to post a serviceable QB2 stat line.
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18.
Sam Darnold
MIN (at CHI)
Darnold is the QB13 in fantasy points per game and has finished as a QB1 in 50% of his games this season. Since Week 5, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate while also sporting the sixth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. The Bears' pass defense has fallen off. Since Week 6, they have allowed the 13th-highest success rate per dropback, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the eighth-highest CPOE. Don't be surprised if Darnold is a QB1 in Week 12.
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19.
Caleb Williams
CHI (vs . MIN)
Last week, with Thomas Brown at the controls, the Bears offense looked quite different for Caleb Williams. He tied a season-high with nine rushing attempts while setting a new season-high with 70 rushing yards. Williams had four designed runs when he had only three in the entire season entering Week 11. In Weeks 1-10, Williams' aDOT was 8.6, his average time to throw was 2.70, and he threw to his first-read 60.5% of the time. Last week, the name of the game was to simplify things for Williams and get the ball out of his hands quickly. His aDOT dropped to 6.7 while his average time to throw was 2.21 (eighth-fastest), and he threw to his first read on 87.1% of his passing plays. This approach should help to minimize the high pressure and blitz rates he'll face this week. Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate and pressure rate. Since Week 6, they have allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-highest passer rating, and rank 16th in EPA per dropback. Last week, Williams was the QB22 in fantasy. He should return solid QB2 production this week.
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20.
Russell Wilson
PIT (at CLE)
I worried that Wilson was due for a regression game. I knew it was coming eventually, but I didn't think it would have been against arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL this season. Last week, Wilson finished as the QB26 in fantasy. He has finished as a QB1 twice this season (QB3, QB9). Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 35th in catchable target rate. Wilson could be primed for a bounce-back week against the Browns. Since Week 6, Cleveland has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the seventh-most passing yards per game.
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21.
Jameis Winston
CLE (vs . PIT)
Winston has finished as a QB1 in fantasy in two of his three starts (QB10, QB6). Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 19th in passer rating, 17th in CPOE, and fifth in hero throw rate. He has a tough task this week, facing a nasty pass defense. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has given up the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, the fourth-lowest CPOE, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback. Winston is a QB2 this week that might be better off on the bench.
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22.
Will Levis
TEN (at HOU)
Levis is the QB31 in fantasy points per game with only one QB1 outing this season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 25th in catchable target rate, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback. Sit him this week. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest CPOE.
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23.
Tommy DeVito
NYG (vs . TB)
Last year, in DeVito's five full starts, he finished as a QB1 once while averaging 5.4 rushing attempts and 32.2 rushing yards per game. Among 48 qualifying starters last season, he ranked 37th in yards per attempt, 31st in CPOE, 29th in fantasy points per dropback, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate. It's tough to consider him more than a bottom-dwelling QB2 this week despite a nice matchup through the air. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the highest CPOE.
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24.
Gardner Minshew II
LV (vs . DEN)
Ok, I understand Minshew passed for 282 yards last week as the QB14 in fantasy, but a broken clock is right once a day. That doesn't mean that you should be relying upon it. That was only the second time Minshew has had double-digit fantasy points in his last six games. Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the tenth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the ninth-lowest CPOE. No, thank you. Sit Minshew this week.
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25.
Cooper Rush
DAL (at WAS)
Rush at least had a pulse in Week 11 as the QB18 in fantasy as compared to the putrid performance he turned in the week prior. That still doesn't make him playable outside of the deepest of Superflex leagues. Over the last two weeks, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 26th in catchable target rate, 29th in CPOE, and 32nd in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 6, Washington has stepped up their pass defense game, allowing the ninth-fewest passing touchdowns, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest passing yards per game.
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26.
Bryce Young
CAR (vs . KC)
Since Week 8, Young has been the QB30 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 31st in catchable target rate, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. Young is a must-sit this week. Since Week 6, Kansas City has allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns, the tenth-lowest yard per attempt, and the ninth-fewest passing yards per game.
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27.
Trey Lance
DAL (at WAS)
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28.
Justin Fields
PIT (at CLE)
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29.
Mason Rudolph
TEN (at HOU)
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30.
Desmond Ridder
LV (vs . DEN)
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31.
Malik Willis
GB (vs . SF)
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32.
Jacoby Brissett
NE (at MIA)
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33.
Drew Lock
NYG (vs . TB)
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34.
Joe Flacco
IND (vs . DET)
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35.
Daniel Jones
NYG (vs . TB)
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36.
Hendon Hooker
DET (at IND)
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37.
Tyler Huntley
MIA (vs . NE)
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38.
Clayton Tune
ARI (at SEA)
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39.
Sam Howell
SEA (vs . ARI)
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40.
Devin Leary
BAL (at LAC)
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41.
Easton Stick
LAC (vs . BAL)
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42.
Blaine Gabbert
FA (BYE)
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43.
Kyle Trask
TB (at NYG)
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44.
Kenny Pickett
PHI (at LAR)
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45.
Joshua Dobbs
SF (at GB)
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46.
Nick Mullens
MIN (at CHI)
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47.
Jimmy Garoppolo
LAR (vs . PHI)
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48.
Marcus Mariota
WAS (vs . DAL)
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49.
Jarrett Stidham
DEN (at LV)
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50.
Davis Mills
HOU (vs . TEN)
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51.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
CLE (vs . PIT)
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52.
Tyson Bagent
CHI (vs . MIN)
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53.
Josh Allen
BUF (BYE)
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54.
Joe Burrow
CIN (BYE)
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55.
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ (BYE)
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56.
Kirk Cousins
ATL (BYE)
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57.
Derek Carr
NO (BYE)
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58.
Mac Jones
JAC (BYE)
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59.
Jake Browning
CIN (BYE)
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60.
Tyrod Taylor
NYJ (BYE)
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61.
Mitchell Trubisky
BUF (BYE)
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62.
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL (BYE)
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63.
Trevor Lawrence
JAC (BYE)
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64.
Spencer Rattler
NO (BYE)
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65.
Jake Haener
NO (BYE)
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66.
Andy Dalton
CAR (vs . KC)
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67.
Aidan O'Connell
LV (vs . DEN)
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68.
Skylar Thompson
MIA (vs . NE)
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69.
Josh Johnson
BAL (at LAC)
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70.
Sean Clifford
GB (vs . SF)
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71.
Ryan Tannehill
FA (BYE)
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72.
Carson Wentz
KC (at CAR)
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73.
Reid Sinnett
FA (BYE)
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74.
Trevor Siemian
TEN (at HOU)
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75.
Joe Milton III
NE (at MIA)
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76.
C.J. Beathard
JAC (BYE)
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77.
Matt Corral
FA (BYE)
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78.
Stetson Bennett
LAR (vs . PHI)
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79.
Jeff Driskel
WAS (vs . DAL)
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80.
Jaren Hall
SEA (vs . ARI)
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81.
Jordan Travis
NYJ (BYE)
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82.
Tanner McKee
PHI (at LAR)
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83.
Zach Wilson
DEN (at LV)
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84.
Matt Barkley
FA (BYE)
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85.
Taylor Heinicke
LAC (vs . BAL)
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