Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 16 Rankings
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1.
Josh Allen
BUF (vs . NE)
Josh Allen has scored 121.6 fantasy points in three games since Buffalo's Week 12 bye. Titans quarterback Will Levis has scored 120.1 fantasy points this season. Allen should continue to dominate when Buffalo hosts the New England Patriots this week. The Patriots rank 30th in the NFL in defensive DVOA and are ill-equipped to slow down the juggernaut that is Josh Allen. Allen has six rushing touchdowns in his last three games, so he can benefit even if Buffalo takes the air out of the ball due to building a big lead or potential lousy weather in Buffalo. He should be the consensus overall QB1 this week.
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2.
Jalen Hurts
PHI (at WAS)
It was nice to see the passing game show up for the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday as they dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jalen Hurts led the way by throwing for 290 yards. It was his most prolific passing day since way back in Week 3. Hurts also ran for a score, his 12th in the last nine games. One of those rushing touchdowns came in his previous meeting with the Washington Commanders, his Week 16 opponents. Washington is a bottom-10 defense against both the run and pass, so expect Hurts to have another solid outing on Sunday.
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3.
Joe Burrow
CIN (vs . CLE)
Joe Burrow posted his sixth consecutive top-10 fantasy finish in last week's victory in Tennessee. His ceiling was compromised due to Cincinnati playing from in front in the second half. That script may play again this week when the Bengals host the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have benched Jameis Winston in favor of Second-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Thompson-Robinson has thrown just one career touchdown against seven interceptions. Cleveland also lost running back Nick Chubb in last week's loss. Burrow should put up numbers as long as this game remains competitive, but we may not see a seventh straight three-touchdown passing performance from the Bengals signal-caller.
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4.
Lamar Jackson
BAL (vs . PIT)
Lost a bit in the shadow of Josh Allen's recent play has been the continued excellence of Lamar Jackson. The Ravens quarterback accounted for 355 yards and five touchdowns in last week's win versus the New York Giants. Jackson has now finished as a QB in 12-team leagues in all but one game this season. It should be noted that one game in which Jackson fell out of the top 12 came against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week, they will be Baltimore's opponent in a game that will likely decide the AFC North Division. Despite the difficult matchup, I cannot advise fading Jackson this week. His ceiling may not be relatively as high as usual, but he should still be able to produce plenty of fantasy points.
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5.
Jayden Daniels
WAS (vs . PHI)
From a fantasy perspective, Jayden Daniels has bounced back in recent weeks following a midseason lull. Daniels has finished as a top-seven fantasy quarterback in three consecutive games. The rookie will have an arduous task ahead of him when the Commanders host the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16. The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Daniels' status as a top-10 quarterback is likely dependent on his ability to run for a touchdown. That makes him a somewhat risky QB1 option compared to other quarterbacks in this range.
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6.
Baker Mayfield
TB (at DAL)
Mayfield is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 12, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked third in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game, 11th in passer rating, and 8th in CPOE. Mayfield should post another QB1 week against Dallas. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest CPOE, the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 13th-most passing yards per game. Since Week 10, Dallas has had the fourth-highest pressure rate. Mayfield should be able to navigate pressure without a problem, as he ranks first in yards per attempt and 13th in passer rating when pressured.
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7.
Kyler Murray
ARI (at CAR)
Murray is the QB14 in fantasy points per game, and he only has two QB1 finishes across his last six games. Murray's biggest issue is that he has seen a ton of two-high coverage while his rushing floor has also bottomed out. Since Week 6, Arizona has faced the tenth-most two high coverage in the NFL (50%). Since Week 8, Murray has surpassed 22 rushing yards in a game only once. I don't know if the rushing will return this week, but Murray finally gets a single high matchup that he can take advantage of. Since Week 12, Carolina has featured single-high at the seventh-highest rate (59.7%). Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, against single high, Murray ranks 15th in passer rating, seventh in hero throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the eighth-highest CPOE, and the 13th-highest success rate per dropback.
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8.
Sam Darnold
MIN (at SEA)
Darnold is the QB8 in fantasy points per game, with four QB1 outings in his last seven games. He ranks fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game and hero throw rate, and fourth in passer rating. Darnold has settled in and is operating well in Kevin O'Connell's offense. He remains a QB1 this week, but he faces an uphill climb against a revitalized Seattle pass defense. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE.
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9.
Jordan Love
GB (vs . NO)
Since Week 11, Green Bay has been more run-heavy, and it has limited Love's production. In that span, he hasn't had more than 28 passing attempts in any game and has only two QB1 weekly finishes. On a per-dropback basis, Love has been stellar during this stretch. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Love has ranked 20th in passing yards per game and 28th in passing attempts, but he has also ranked first in yards per attempt and passer rating, ninth in CPOE, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback. This could be a good spot for Green Bay to let Love chuck it. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game while ranking 17th in CPOE and 16th in success rate per dropback. During this same span, the Saints have allowed the seventh-most deep passing yards per game and the 12th-highest passer rating to deep passing.
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10.
Jared Goff
DET (at CHI)
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11.
Brock Purdy
SF (at MIA)
Purdy stunk it up last week. There's no denying it, but let's not act like Purdy has been disappointing or is a stay-away player this week. Purdy has finished as a QB1 in weekly fantasy scoring in five of his last eight starts. Since Week 8, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating, 19th in CPOE, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Miami pass defense that has shown some weakness in the last few weeks. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 12th-highest CPOE.
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12.
Anthony Richardson
IND (vs . TEN)
Richardson has been a QB1 in two of his last four starts (QB5, QB9). This is largely due to his rushing production, as he has averaged nine carries and 46.8 rushing yards while logging four rushing touchdowns. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 30th in yards per attempt, 33rd in passer rating, 34th in highly accurate throw rate, and had the third-highest off-target throw rate. All of the improvements in his game that I saw on film against the Jets have seemingly melted away. It has been a rough showing over the last three games for Richardson. He has a wonderful matchup this week, but at this juncture, it's legitimate to be worried about Richardson, even in good matchups. His rushing production will likely put him somewhere inside the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks for the week, but his passing will determine his ceiling for the week. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the highest CPOE.
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13.
Bo Nix
DEN (at LAC)
Nix has been turnover-prone over the last two games, with five interceptions. Hopefully, he can limit the "Ferris Bueller" moments this week. He has had QB1 outings in four of his last seven games as the overall QB10 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in passing yards per game, eighth in passing touchdowns, and 17th in passer rating and CPOE. Nix should sneak in this week with another top-15 fantasy quarterback performance with some upside to reenter the QB1 conversation. The Bolts' pass defense has hit the skids recently. Since Week 10, they have allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the tenth-highest passer rating.
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14.
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA (vs . SF)
Last week was a rare wretched performance for Tagovailoa. He had only 4.9 yards per attempt while struggling with three picks and only 6.8 fantasy points against Houston. Prior to last week, Tagovailoa had been money in the back with four consecutive QB1 finishes. Since Week 8, he has ranked fifth in passing yards per game, fourth in passing touchdowns, fifth in passer rating, and third in highly accurate throw rate. It looks like Tagovailoa is headed toward another down week. Since Week 10, the 49ers have remained a top-tier pass defense, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt, the fewest passing yards per game, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback.
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15.
Patrick Mahomes II
KC (vs . HOU)
Since Week 9, Mahomes has been the QB10 in fantasy points per game, ranking (among 38 qualifying quarterbacks) ninth in passing yards per game, sixth in passing touchdowns, 17th in passer rating, and 24th in CPOE. Mahome is better viewed as a fringe QB1 or strong QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.
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16.
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ (vs . LAR)
Over the last two weeks, Rodgers has been the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 14, Rodgers has ranked fourth in passing yards per game, fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. He has been dreadful for most of the season, but this could be the time to ride the hot streak with Rodgers. Since Week 10, the Rams have continued to be a pass defense to not fear, allowing the seventh-highest success rate per dropback, the 11th-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the tenth-most EPA per dropback.
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17.
Matthew Stafford
LAR (at NYJ)
Since Week 8, Stafford has been the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks since Week 8, Stafford ranks 12th in yards per attempt, seventh in passing yards per game and passer rating, and fifth in passing touchdowns. Stafford should carve up what has become an overrated Jets pass defense. Since Week 10, New York has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game, the sixth-most yards per attempt, and the second-highest CPOE.
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18.
Caleb Williams
CHI (vs . DET)
The last time Williams faced the Lions, he finished as the QB5 for the week with 256 passing yards, three passing scores, and 39 rushing yards. The Lions' defense has been gutted since that game by injuries. We'll see if Williams can bounce back after back-to-back horrible outings. Since Week 11, Williams has been the QB14 in fantasy points per game while ranking 26th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, 22nd in CPOE, and 18th in highly accurate throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks, 30 qualifying quarterbacks). Since Week 13, Detroit has ranked 11th-best in pressure rate, but they have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the most yards per attempt, and the fourth-highest passer rating.
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19.
Justin Herbert
LAC (vs . DEN)
The Bolts offense has been stuck in the mud for the last three games, which has affected Herbert's production. He hasn't had more than 14.8 fantasy points in a game since Week 12. Since Week 13, among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert has ranked 30th in passing yards per game, 24th in yards per attempt, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. It's difficult to see him as anything more than a mid-range QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Denver has kept quarterbacks in check, giving up the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE.
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20.
Cooper Rush
DAL (vs . TB)
Since Week 11, Rush has been the QB20 in fantasy points per game. Across his last five games, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Rush has ranked 16th in passing yards per game, 21st in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. He's at least been serviceable as a QB2, which is about all we can ask from Rush. Unfortunately, he faces an improving Bucs pass defense. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest CPOE.
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21.
C.J. Stroud
HOU (at KC)
Since Week 11, Stroud has still struggled as the QB27 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying passers, Stroud has ranked 21st in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, 24th in highly accurate throw rate, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. This continues to be a disappointing sophomore season for Stroud. He has been unable to snap out of the funk. I would love to say Stroud has a ceiling performance this week against a pedestrian Chiefs pass defense, but I think we are past the point of hoping for that for Stroud this year. Since Week 10, Kansas City has ranked 16th in passing yards per game and yards per attempt allowed while also giving up the 13th-highest CPOE and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback.
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22.
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL (vs . NYG)
The most substantial sample we have for Penix Jr. in the NFL has been his 16 preseason dropbacks, where he had a 6.3% big-time throw rate, an 8.6 aDOT, and a 56.3% adjusted completion rate. Even that is too small to really pull anything substantial from. During his final collegiate season, among 144 qualifying FBS passers, Penix Jr. was impressive, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, tenth in big-time throw rate, 27th in aDOT, and 39th in adjusted completion rate. The strong-armed rookie isn't afraid of chucking it deep, as he led all FBS quarterbacks last year in deep passing attempts. This is a great matchup to ease Penix Jr. into the starting role. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest CPOE. Across their last five games, this secondary has continually been gutted by deep passing, allowing the third-highest passer rating and CPOE to deep passing.
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23.
Drake Maye
NE (at BUF)
Maye has been a QB1 in each of his last two starts (QB10, QB11). Since Week 9, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye has ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 19th in passing yards per game, 11th in CPOE, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. Maye could make it three consecutive QB1 weeks as he faces off with a Bills pass defense that isn't scary at all anymore. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing yards per game, the third-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.
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24.
Geno Smith
SEA (vs . MIN)
Smith (knee) practiced in full all week and doesn't have an injury designation this week. Smith is the QB17 in fantasy points per game and hasn't finished as a QB1 since Week 9. He hasn't managed better than QB20 in any game over the last five weeks. Since Week 11, among 35 qualifying passers, Smith has ranked 28th in passing yards per game, 14th in yards per attempt, 26th in passing touchdowns (three), and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Smith is a QB2 again this week. Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns, the third-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points via passing.
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25.
Bryce Young
CAR (vs . ARI)
Since Week 12, Young has been the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 27th in passer rating, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Young should post mid-range QB2 numbers again this week against an Arizona secondary that has regressed in recent weeks. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the 11th-highest passer rating, the seventh-highest CPOE, and ranked 15th in yards per attempt.
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26.
Russell Wilson
PIT (at BAL)
The loss of George Pickens in the last two games has crushed Wilson's ceiling, as he has finished as the QB13 and QB25 in weekly scoring, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. I don't see that changing this week, with Pickens out again. Wilson didn't even succeed against this defense in their last meeting with a QB27 (7.3 fantasy points) finish. Since Week 14, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson has ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 30th in passing yards per game, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Baltimore has also been improving their pass defense. Since Week 10, they have allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE. I expect mid-to-low-end QB2 numbers from Wilson this week.
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27.
Aidan O'Connell
LV (vs . JAC)
O'Connell is hopefully back this week. He has been a run-of-the-mill QB2 outside of his spike week against the Chiefs. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 40th in CPOE, and 41st in highly accurate throw rate. This could be another Chiefs' situation this week, though, as a bad pass defense could help to elevate O'Connell's production. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the third-most passing yards per game, the fourth-most yards per attempt, and the ninth-most fantasy points via passing.
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28.
Mac Jones
JAC (at LV)
Jones has posted QB1 finishes in two of his last three games (QB12, QB8). That doesn't mean that he has played well, but much like O'Connell on the other side, Jones' fantasy production could be elevated this week because of the quality of the opponent he is squaring off against. Among 43 qualifying passers, Jones ranks 36th in yards per attempt, 41st in passer rating, fourth in highly accurate throw rate, and 38th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 10, the Raiders have allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing.
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29.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
CLE (at CIN)
Last year, in his three starts, Thompson-Robinson never finished higher than QB22 in weekly scoring. Last year, among 48 qualifying passers, he ranked dead last in yards per attempt and passer rating and 45th in CPOE. There's not much hope for Thompson-Robinson this week outside of Cincy's wretched defense, which may possibly elevate his level of play. Since Week 10, Cincy has allowed the third-most yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest passer rating.
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30.
Mason Rudolph
TEN (at IND)
In Rudolph's three starts this season, he has finished as the QB20, QB13, and QB15 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 43 qualifying passers, Rudolph ranks 31st in yards per attempt, 32nd in passer rating, 20th in CPOE, and 30th in highly accurate throw rate. Rudolph is a low-end QB2 facing an improved Colts pass defense. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game and yards per attempt and the sixth-lowest CPOE.
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31.
Spencer Rattler
NO (at GB)
In his two full starts this season, Rattler finished as the QB20 and QB25 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, Rattler has barely been a replacement-level quarterback, ranking 39th in yards per attempt, 40th in passer rating, and 31st in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. This is a decent spot for Rattler, but I don't think he'll play well enough, and he doesn't have the weapons to take advantage of it. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback.
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32.
Drew Lock
NYG (at ATL)
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33.
Jameis Winston
CLE (at CIN)
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34.
Carson Wentz
KC (vs . HOU)
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35.
Sam Howell
SEA (vs . MIN)
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36.
Tim Boyle
NYG (at ATL)
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37.
Desmond Ridder
LV (vs . JAC)
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38.
Will Levis
TEN (at IND)
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39.
Kirk Cousins
ATL (vs . NYG)
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40.
Tommy DeVito
NYG (at ATL)
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41.
Jake Haener
NO (at GB)
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42.
Joe Flacco
IND (vs . TEN)
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43.
Trey Lance
DAL (vs . TB)
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44.
Jake Browning
CIN (vs . CLE)
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45.
Malik Willis
GB (vs . NO)
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46.
Hendon Hooker
DET (at CHI)
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47.
Kyle Trask
TB (at DAL)
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48.
Devin Leary
BAL (vs . PIT)
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49.
Nick Mullens
MIN (at SEA)
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50.
Mitchell Trubisky
BUF (vs . NE)
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51.
Jimmy Garoppolo
LAR (at NYJ)
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52.
Tyrod Taylor
NYJ (vs . LAR)
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53.
Brandon Allen
SF (at MIA)
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54.
Kenny Pickett
PHI (at WAS)
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55.
Blaine Gabbert
FA (BYE)
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56.
Clayton Tune
ARI (at CAR)
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57.
Tyler Huntley
MIA (vs . SF)
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58.
Davis Mills
HOU (at KC)
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59.
Jarrett Stidham
DEN (at LAC)
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60.
C.J. Beathard
JAC (at LV)
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61.
Tyson Bagent
CHI (vs . DET)
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62.
Jacoby Brissett
NE (at BUF)
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63.
Marcus Mariota
WAS (vs . PHI)
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64.
Derek Carr
NO (at GB)
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65.
Joshua Dobbs
SF (at MIA)
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66.
Andy Dalton
CAR (vs . ARI)
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67.
Skylar Thompson
MIA (vs . SF)
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68.
Kyle Allen
PIT (at BAL)
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69.
Josh Johnson
BAL (vs . PIT)
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70.
Sean Clifford
GB (vs . NO)
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71.
Ryan Tannehill
FA (BYE)
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72.
Reid Sinnett
FA (BYE)
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73.
Trevor Siemian
TEN (at IND)
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74.
Joe Milton III
NE (at BUF)
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75.
Matt Corral
FA (BYE)
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76.
Stetson Bennett
LAR (at NYJ)
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77.
Jeff Driskel
WAS (vs . PHI)
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78.
Jaren Hall
SEA (vs . MIN)
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79.
Jordan Travis
NYJ (vs . LAR)
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80.
Tanner McKee
PHI (at WAS)
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81.
Matt Barkley
FA (BYE)
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82.
Taylor Heinicke
LAC (vs . DEN)
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