Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 1 PPR Rankings
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1.
Sam LaPorta
DET (vs . LAR)
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2.
Travis Kelce
KC (vs . BAL)
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3.
Trey McBride
ARI (at BUF)
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4.
Dalton Kincaid
BUF (vs . ARI)
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5.
Mark Andrews
BAL (at KC)
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6.
Evan Engram
JAC (at MIA)
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7.
Kyle Pitts
ATL (vs . PIT)
I know you've heard this before, but the pain train stops here for Pitts. Disappointment szn is a thing of the past with Arthur Smith gone. We know Pitts wasn't fully healthy last year, but his usage with Smith was confounding. Pitts finished as the TE16 in fantasy points per game and the TE15 in expected fantasy points per game. Much of this can be attributed to his minuscule touchdown production (only three, 18th among TEs) and a non-existent red zone role (34th in red zone targets). Pitts still earned volume at a solid clip, ranking 13th in target share and 11th in first-read share, although his efficiency dipped (18th in yards per route run and first downs per route run). Pitts should produce a tasty stat line in Week 1 against a defense that allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and fifth-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers last year (2023 Pitts' slot rate: 58.5%).
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8.
George Kittle
SF (vs . NYJ)
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9.
David Njoku
CLE (vs . DAL)
Njoku took flight with Joe Flacco last year as the TE7 in fantasy. The worry is what he did with Cleveland's current starting quarterback. In the five games Watson played a full-time role, Njoku had a 15% target share with 1.23 yards per route run, 35.2 receiving yards per game, only one end zone target, and 0.035 first downs per route run. His 8.5 PPR points per game would have landed him as the TE17 last year. No matter how you slice it, that's nightmare fuel for Njoku. Sadly, it could be a quiet opener for Njoku against a defense that allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends last year.
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10.
Jake Ferguson
DAL (at CLE)
Ferguson finished last season as the TE10 in fantasy points per game. He was 17th in yards per route run and 15th in first downs per route run despite ranking tenth in receiving yards per game. Ferguson should swallow up target volume this season and finish again as a low-end TE1. This is a game where you should consider streaming options over him, though. Cleveland was a shutdown defense to tight ends last year. They allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game, the second-lowest yards per reception, and the fewest receiving yards to the position. Ferguson likely needs a touchdown this week to make you feel good about starting him.
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11.
Dallas Goedert
PHI (vs . GB)
Goedert missed time again last year after suffering a broken arm in Week 10. Overall, he was the TE12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share, 13th in receiving yards per game, and 15th in first downs per route run. If the new Packer's defensive coordinator flips the scheme to more two-high, Goedert could have a busy week. Last year, in his 14 games played against two-high, Goedert had an 18.2% target share, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. Last year, Green Bay was 15th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends while surrendering the fifth-most receiving touchdowns.
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12.
Brock Bowers
LV (at LAC)
Brock Bowers enters the NFL as one of the best tight-end prospects of recent memory. Across his three collegiate seasons, he never finished lower than sixth in receiving grade or yards per route run (per PFF). We'll see what his route share is out the gate with Michael Mayer still here. Bowers should compete with Jakobi Meyers for the second spot in the target pecking order this season. Bowers could return TE1 numbers immediately, but I'm a little more skeptical than many others. The matchup is okay but not amazing. Last year, the Bolts ranked 19th in fantasy points per game and 14th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
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13.
Dalton Schultz
HOU (at IND)
There are only so many targets to go around weekly. If anyone is likely to get squeezed throughout the season in Houston's passing attack, it's Schultz. Schultz was the TE11 in fantasy last year. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 15th in target share, 11th in receiving yards per game, 14th in yards per route run, and 11th in first downs per route run. This matchup with Indy doesn't bode well for him, either. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Schultz had a 19% TPRR, 1.53 YPRR, and 0.089 FD/RR. None of these metrics are terrible, but they are all significantly behind the top three wideouts on this team. Also, add in that Mixon has a good matchup through the air, and Schultz could be the distant fifth option in the passing game in Week 1. Last year, Indy allowed the tenth-lowest yards per reception and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
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14.
Pat Freiermuth
PIT (at ATL)
Last year wasn't exactly the type of season anyone hoped for, Freiermuth. He finished as the TE27 in fantasy points per game before a hamstring issue derailed his season. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, Freiermuth ranked 23rd in target share, 34th in yards per route run, and 28th in first downs per route run. The hope candle has been lit again for the 2024 season, but I have my worries. We have all seen what Arthur Smith does with player usage. I won't rule out Darnell Washington cutting into Freiermuth's snaps and routes more than anyone wants to see. If Freiermuth retains an every-down role, the matchup is nice for Week 1. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, when Freiermuth was healthy, he saw a 12% target share and 14.2% first read share producing 1.25 yards per route run. None of these numbers are amazing, but Morris's defense could be vulnerable to tight ends in 2024. The Falcons have upgraded their defense this offseason, but they still surrendered the fourth-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends last year.
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15.
Taysom Hill
NO (vs . CAR)
Hill is the ultimate wildcard at tight end. He finished last year as the TE15, but that doesn't really convey how valuable he was in fantasy. Hill managed seven outings where he was a top-10 fantasy tight end (TE6, TE6, TE3, TE6, TE6, TE10, TE8). He contributed in the passing game and on the ground with 692 total yards from scrimmage with six touchdowns. Hill will play a Swiss army knife role again for New Orleans in 2024. If you need a dice roll any week that could finish with TE1 numbers, Hill is your guy.
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16.
Hunter Henry
NE (at CIN)
Henry is banged up, but he may play in Week 1. He dealt with ankle and knee issues last year as well. Henry had ten games last year where he was able to play at least 70% of the snaps. In that sample, he finished as a TE1 in 50% of his games while drawing a 15.2% target share with 1.35 yards per route run and 35.7 receiving yards per game. He averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game. The interesting takeaway in that sample was that among 41 qualifying tight ends, he ranked seventh in first downs per route run and that fantasy points per game mark would have made him TE8 in fantasy if he had kept up the pace all year. Henry has a wonderful matchup for Week 1 if you're in need of a streamer in deep leagues. Last year, the Bengals allowed the most receptions, the third-most receiving yards, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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17.
Tyler Conklin
NYJ (at SF)
Conklin was the TE21 in fantasy points per game last year. He lived in the TE2 efficiency market, too, ranking 18th in target share, 16th in receiving yards per game, and 21st in YPRR. There will be weeks to consider streaming Conklin with Rodgers under center, but this isn't one of them. Last year, the 49ers allowed the seventh-lowest yards per reception, the 12th-lowest catch rate, and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
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18.
Cade Otton
TB (vs . WAS)
Otton was a weekly streaming possibility last year as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. He managed four TE1 performances last year. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 27th in target share, 26th in receiving yards per game, and 46th in YPRR. Sadly, this isn't a week to consider Otton for your starting lineups. Last year, Washington was tough against tight ends, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game.
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19.
Luke Musgrave
GB (at PHI)
The Packers' room is a mess until we see their in-season usage in 2024. Will they split routes and snaps this year? Will Musgrave reassume his clear starting role, or did Tucker Kraft do enough last year to eat into his playing or supplant him? With Kraft dealing with a torn pectoral this offseason, I doubt he will supplant him immediately, but I won't rule it out during the season. Musgrave gets a small boost this week as Tucker Kraft is dealing with a back issue (listed as questionable for the game). Last year, in Weeks 1-10, he was the TE22 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 31 qualifying tight ends, he was 21st in target share (13.0%), 15th in yards per route run (1.48), 19th in receiving yards per game (34.8), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.057). The matchup against Philly isn't great. Last year, they were 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. While they did give up the tenth-most receptions to the position, they also permitted the 12th-lowest yards per reception.
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20.
Cole Kmet
CHI (vs . TEN)
It might be time to panic if you drafted Kmet or have plans that he will be a top 12-15 fantasy tight end this season. Yes, last year, he was the TE9 in fantasy points per game. Last season, among 51 qualifying tight ends, Kmet ranked 12th in target share, seventh in yards per route run, and 10th in first downs per route run. He was the clear second option in the passing game. That WILL NOT happen in 2024 if everyone stays healthy. In the preseason, he only ran a route on 35% of Caleb Williams' pass attempts as Gerald Everett got involved. Even if you want to ignore that, his matchup is brutal for Week 1. Last year, Tennessee allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Sit Kmet.
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21.
Noah Fant
SEA (vs . DEN)
Last year, Fant was locked into a tight-end committee situation, but he should be the primary tight end this season. Last year, Fant was the TE36 in fantasy points per game with a 14% TPRR, 1.38 YPRR, and 0.054 FD/RR. None of those metrics scream STREAM ME IN WEEK 1, but the matchup is pretty good as Denver bled out production to tight ends last year, allowing the seventh-highest yards per reception and the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Fant is a low-end streaming option in deep leagues this week.
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22.
Jonnu Smith
MIA (vs . JAC)
Smith could walk out of Week 1 with a TE1-worthy stat line. He was a target of mine in the later rounds of plenty of best-ball drafts this offseason. Last year, among 43 qualifying tight ends, he was 17th in receiving yards per game, 11th in yards per route run, and fifth in missed tackles forced per reception. He could be the WR3 for Tua Tagovailoa this year. He faces a Jacksonville defense that gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game, the highest yards per reception, and the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends last year. If you need a tight-end streamer for Week 1, Smith makes a ton of sense.
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23.
Zach Ertz
WAS (at TB)
Yes, I know you were looking for Ben Sinnott, aka the Lawmaker here. I'd love to write up Sinnott as a Week 1 play, but I have no clue what his snap share and routes per dropback rate will be. Just because I'm avoiding him here means he's likely to score a touchdown this week. Now that I got that out of the way, I'm going to puke after saying this, but Ertz is a good streaming option for Week 1. Last year, he looked every bit like the player you'd think is on the back nine of his career. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he did rank tenth in target share but was also 39th in YPRR and 40th in FD/RR. Ertz is a volume and matchup play. Last year, Tampa Bay was ripped apart by tight ends giving up the second-most receiving yards, the 11th-highest yards per reception, and the third-most fantasy points per game.
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24.
Juwan Johnson
NO (vs . CAR)
Last year, Johnson was the TE18 in fantasy points per game. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he was 19th in target share (13.6%), 30th in YPRR, and 17th in FD/RR. He'll have plenty of streamable matchups this season, but this isn't one of them. Overall, Carolina allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-lowest receiving yards to tight ends. The Panthers also held slot tight ends (Johnson, 57.2% slot) to the second-fewest fantasy points. Sit Johnson.
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25.
Colby Parkinson
LAR (at DET)
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26.
Chig Okonkwo
TEN (at CHI)
Okonkwo was the offseason tight end late-round darling last year. He failed to live up to the hype and hope last year. Despite that fact, he should be viewed as the Titans' clear starter at the position for this year. In Week 3 of the preseason with Will Levis under center, he logged a 72% snap rate and an 87.5% route per dropback rate. Last season, Okonkwo was the TE26 in fantasy points per game with a 15% target share, 1.47 YPRR, 0.069 FD/RR, and a 15.5% first-read share. He wasn't a huge part of their red zone offense, with only six looks all year (27th). That could change this season. Oknokwo could get off to a solid start in Week 1 against a Bears' defense that allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to slot tight ends last year (Okonkwo 57.5% slot in 2023) and the fourth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends overall. If you're looking for a tight end to stream in Week 1, Okonkwo makes a ton of sense.
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27.
Greg Dulcich
NYG (vs . MIN)
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28.
Isaiah Likely
BAL (at KC)
In Weeks 12-18, Likely was third on the team in target share (14%) and yards per route run (1.52) against two-high. With Andrews back in the fold, Likely will still be involved, but he probably won't be a top-three option in the passing attack in Week 1. Park Likely on the bench this week against a defense that allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends last year.
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29.
Mike Gesicki
CIN (vs . NE)
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30.
Tucker Kraft
GB (at PHI)
Last year, Kraft assumed the starting tight end role in Week 12 and was the TE12 in fantasy points per game for the final seven games of the season. During his tenure as the starter, among 37 qualifying tight ends, he was 21st in target share (14.2%), 19th in yards per route run (1.59), and 12th in receiving yards per game and first downs per route run. Last year, the Eagles were 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. While they did give up the tenth-most receptions to the position, they also permitted the 12th-lowest yards per reception. Kraft is a fine, deep league stash, but it's impossible to plug him into a lineup in Week 1. Kraft is dealing with a back issue after only getting in a limited practice session on Wednesday. He has been listed as questionable. This gives a boost to Luke Musgrave.
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31.
Michael Mayer
LV (at LAC)
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32.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
CAR (at NO)
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33.
Ben Sinnott
WAS (at TB)
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34.
Gerald Everett
CHI (vs . TEN)
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35.
Dawson Knox
BUF (vs . ARI)
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36.
Hayden Hurst
LAC (vs . LV)
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37.
Kylen Granson
IND (vs . HOU)
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38.
Johnny Mundt
MIN (at NYG)
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39.
Theo Johnson
NYG (vs . MIN)
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40.
Daniel Bellinger
NYG (vs . MIN)
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41.
Will Dissly
LAC (vs . LV)
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42.
Josh Oliver
MIN (at NYG)
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43.
Noah Gray
KC (vs . BAL)
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44.
Tanner Hudson
CIN (vs . NE)
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45.
Austin Hooper
NE (at CIN)
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46.
Adam Trautman
DEN (at SEA)
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47.
Mo Alie-Cox
IND (vs . HOU)
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48.
Josh Whyle
TEN (at CHI)
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49.
Foster Moreau
NO (vs . CAR)
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50.
Darnell Washington
PIT (at ATL)
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51.
Brevin Jordan
HOU (at IND)
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52.
Jeremy Ruckert
NYJ (at SF)
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53.
Davis Allen
LAR (at DET)
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54.
Durham Smythe
FA (BYE)
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55.
Drew Sample
CIN (vs . NE)
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56.
Brock Wright
DET (vs . LAR)
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57.
Elijah Higgins
ARI (at BUF)
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58.
Luke Schoonmaker
DAL (at CLE)
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59.
Jordan Akins
CLE (vs . DAL)
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60.
Drew Ogletree
IND (vs . HOU)
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61.
Cade Stover
HOU (at IND)
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62.
John Bates
WAS (at TB)
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63.
Erick All Jr.
CIN (vs . NE)
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64.
Connor Heyward
PIT (at ATL)
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65.
Tip Reiman
ARI (at BUF)
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66.
Charlie Woerner
ATL (vs . PIT)
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67.
Stone Smartt
LAC (vs . LV)
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68.
Luke Farrell
JAC (at MIA)
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69.
Jaheim Bell
NE (at CIN)
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70.
Payne Durham
TB (vs . WAS)
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71.
AJ Barner
SEA (vs . DEN)
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72.
Brenton Strange
JAC (at MIA)
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73.
Grant Calcaterra
PHI (vs . GB)
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74.
Julian Hill
MIA (vs . JAC)
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75.
Harrison Bryant
LV (at LAC)
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76.
Chris Manhertz
NYG (vs . MIN)
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77.
Jared Wiley
KC (vs . BAL)
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78.
MyCole Pruitt
PIT (at ATL)
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79.
Hunter Long
LAR (at DET)
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80.
Jake Tonges
SF (vs . NYJ)
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81.
Brady Russell
SEA (vs . DEN)
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82.
Eric Saubert
SF (vs . NYJ)
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83.
Ross Dwelley
ATL (vs . PIT)
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84.
Ko Kieft
TB (vs . WAS)
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85.
Charlie Kolar
BAL (at KC)
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86.
Nate Adkins
DEN (at SEA)
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87.
Nick Muse
PHI (vs . GB)
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88.
Marcedes Lewis
CHI (vs . TEN)
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89.
Ben Sims
GB (at PHI)
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90.
Quintin Morris
BUF (vs . ARI)
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91.
Nick Vannett
TEN (at CHI)
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92.
Robert Tonyan
FA (BYE)
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93.
Parker Hesse
FA (BYE)
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94.
Devin Culp
TB (vs . WAS)
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95.
Brevyn Spann-Ford
DAL (at CLE)
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96.
Donald Parham Jr.
FA (BYE)
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97.
Jordan Franks
FA (BYE)
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98.
Colson Yankoff
WAS (at TB)
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99.
Tanner Conner
MIA (vs . JAC)
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100.
Irv Smith Jr.
HOU (at IND)
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101.
C.J. Uzomah
PHI (vs . GB)
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102.
Eric Tomlinson
FA (BYE)
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103.
Cameron Latu
PHI (vs . GB)
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104.
Jordan Matthews
CAR (at NO)
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105.
E.J. Jenkins
PHI (vs . GB)
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106.
Cole Turner
WAS (at TB)
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107.
James Mitchell
CAR (at NO)
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108.
Anthony Firkser
KC (vs . BAL)
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109.
Rodney Williams
FA (BYE)
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110.
Nick Guggemos
FA (BYE)
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111.
Moral Stephens
FA (BYE)
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112.
Stephen Carlson
CHI (vs . TEN)
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113.
Tucker Fisk
LAC (vs . LV)
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114.
Jack Stoll
MIA (vs . JAC)
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115.
Geoff Swaim
CLE (vs . DAL)
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116.
Mitchell Wilcox
FA (BYE)
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117.
Josiah Deguara
JAC (at MIA)
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118.
Zach Gentry
FA (BYE)
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119.
Brayden Willis
SF (vs . NYJ)
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120.
Nick Boyle
FA (BYE)
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121.
Brycen Hopkins
FA (BYE)
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122.
Zack Kuntz
NYJ (at SF)
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123.
Tyree Jackson
WAS (at TB)
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124.
Michael Jacobson
NO (vs . CAR)
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125.
Teagan Quitoriano
HOU (at IND)
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126.
Shane Zylstra
DET (vs . LAR)
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127.
Zach Davidson
BUF (vs . ARI)
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128.
Tommy Sweeney
CHI (vs . TEN)
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