Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 12 PPR Rankings
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1.
Christian McCaffrey
SF (at GB)
Christian McCaffrey has finished outside the top 10 in each of his two weeks since returning to action. But it is hard to complain too much given the workload. McCaffrey has been on the field for 91 percent of offensive snaps and earned 42 touches across his two games of work. As long as he is getting that level of volume, fantasy managers should continue to treat McCaffrey as an elite RB1, regardless of matchup. It is only a matter of time before the touchdowns and fantasy points follow.
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2.
Saquon Barkley
PHI (at LAR)
Saquon Barkley continued his bizarre trend of alternating top-two fantasy weeks with weeks outside the top 20. Does that mean fantasy managers should fade Barkley in Week 12? In a word, no. Barkley leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and is second among running backs in fantasy points. He faces a Rams defense in Week 12 that has performed better of late against running backs. But they are still giving up an average of 135.2 scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs. Keep Barkley locked in as a high-end RB1 this week.
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3.
De'Von Achane
MIA (vs . NE)
De'Von Achane continues to thrive whenever Tua Tagovailoa is under center. Achane finished as the overall RB7 in Half-PPR leagues last week. It was the third time in four weeks that Achane finished at least that high. There is not much reason to fade Achane in Week 12 when the Dolphins host the New England Patriots. Achane is the clear-cut lead back in Miami, well ahead of both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright. In the last three weeks, Achane has 58 touches. Mostert and Wright each have 17. New England has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs and ranks 28th in DVOA versus the run. That makes Achane a high-upside RB1 in Week 12.
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4.
Joe Mixon
HOU (vs . TEN)
Joe Mixon surpassed 100 rushing yards for the fifth time in six games and tacked on three rushing scores for good measure as the Houston Texans destroyed the Dallas Cowboys last Monday night. Mixon has earned at least 22 touches in five straight contests. That volume and Mixon's elite goal-line efficiency have resulted in Mixon entering Week 12 leading all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game this season. Even if Mixon regresses to some degree, he should continue to remain a volume-based RB1 in all matchups and formats.
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5.
Derrick Henry
BAL (at LAC)
Some negative regression appears to have hit Derrick Henry in recent weeks, but the Ravens' running back has kept his touchdown-scoring streak intact. Henry has found paydirt in all 11 games Baltimore has played this year. We will see strength versus strength when Baltimore travels to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles has only given up two touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. That is the fewest in the NFL. It is hard to envision a scenario where fantasy managers should bench Henry this week, but expectations should probably be tempered a bit given the difficult matchup.
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6.
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET (at IND)
Jahmyr Gibbs flashed his elite upside in last week's blowout victory versus Jacksonville. Gibbs parlayed 12 opportunities into 123 yards and a touchdown, resulting in an RB6 weekly finish. Gibbs and David Montgomery continue to make the best running back tandem in the NFL. Fantasy managers would probably prefer if Gibbs was getting more touches, but he continues to prove he can produce in limited opportunities. That should continue to be the case in Week 12 versus a below-average Indianapolis Colts defense. Consider Gibbs an RB1 once again this week.
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7.
Kenneth Walker III
SEA (vs . ARI)
Kenneth Walker III has been keeping his head above water from a fantasy perspective recently. But the Seattle running back has not exactly dominated the landscape either. Walker III has finished outside the top 12 running backs in fantasy points in five of his last six games. The good news is that Walker III is still getting a huge chunk of the work in the Seattle backfield. He is averaging 16 carries in his last three games. In that same span, Zach Charbonnet has just nine carries for only 15 rushing yards. This week, Seattle hosts the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has not allowed a touchdown in their last two games. But they have allowed running backs to accumulate high yardage totals against them. In their last three outings, opposing running backs have totaled 447 scrimmage yards. That might be enough to boost Walker III into the top 12 this week, especially considering that there are six NFL teams on a bye.
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8.
James Conner
ARI (at SEA)
James Conner has been a yeoman-like fantasy commodity for most of the year. He has only finished three of 10 weeks as a top-12 fantasy running back based on Half-PPR scoring. But he has finished inside the top 20 eight times. That has enabled Conner to enter Week 12 as the overall RB16. This week, Arizona faces a Seattle team that has been a slightly below-average defense against the run this year. Coming off a bye, Cardinals running back James Connor profiles as an intriguing RB1 candidate in Week 12.
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9.
Kyren Williams
LAR (vs . PHI)
After beginning the season with at least one touchdown in seven straight games, Kyren Williams has now failed to score in three consecutive contests. But he still has at least 82 yards from scrimmage in all three of those games. Williams also has a total of 61 opportunities across those three outings. Williams has a tough Week 12 matchup when the Philadelphia Eagles come to town for a Sunday night showdown. The Eagles have only allowed three touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. However, Williams gets enough volume to keep trusting him as an every-week starting fantasy running back.
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10.
Josh Jacobs
GB (vs . SF)
Jacobs is the RB15 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in snap share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and 18th in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.9 touches and 102.4 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. The Packers should lean on Jacobs again this week. Since Week 6, the 49ers' run defense has been vulnerable, allowing the second-highest missed tackle rate, the 12th-highest yards after the contact per attempt, the 13th-highest rushing success rate, and the sixth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Jacobs 50.6% gap).
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11.
Brian Robinson Jr.
WAS (vs . DAL)
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12.
Aaron Jones
MIN (at CHI)
Jones is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 19th in snap share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and 13th in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.6 touches and 95.4 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Jones ranks 31st in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones should have a nice day against a Bears run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards per game, and the tenth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 56.1% zone).
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13.
Jonathan Taylor
IND (vs . DET)
Jonathan Taylor fell short of expectations last week in a favorable matchup against the New York Jets. Taylor had the third-lowest yards per carry in his five-year NFL career. He also failed to find the end zone, while quarterback Anthony Richardson ran for two scores. Taylor has a tough task this week against the Detroit Lions. Detroit is a top-five defense versus the run this season. They have allowed seven rushing touchdowns but have given up less than 100 total yards per game to enemy backs. Taylor may be more of an RB2 than RB1 this week if the Lions keep him out of the end zone.
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14.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
NYG (vs . TB)
Since Week 5, Tracy Jr. has been the RB22 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.1 touches and 98.7 total yards per game. Since Week 5, among 57 qualifying backs, Tracy Jr. has ranked ninth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tracy Jr. should have another strong week against a Bucs run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (since Week 5 Tracy Jr. 51.6% zone).
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15.
David Montgomery
DET (at IND)
Montgomery is the RB12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 25th in weighted opportunities, ninth in red zone touches, and fourth in total touchdowns. He has averaged 15.8 touches and 80 total yards per game. Montgomery has finished outside the top 24 running backs in weekly scoring only once this season. Among 53 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranks 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces an Indy run defense that, since Week 8, has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Montgomery 65% zone).
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16.
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE (at MIA)
Stevenson is the RB24 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in snap share, 16th in opportunity share, and fourth in red zone touches. Since Week 8, he has played at least 70% of the snaps weekly while averaging 20.8 touches and 71.3 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson will have to rely upon volume and touchdown equity this week because the efficiency won't be there. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game and the 13th-lowest explosive run rate while having the 12th-highest stuff rate.
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17.
Najee Harris
PIT (at CLE)
Harris is the RB26 in fantasy points per game, ranking 23rd in opportunity share, sixth in carries, and ninth in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.6 touches and 89 total yards per game. Among 53 qualifying backs, Harris ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Harris should post another nice stat line this week. Since Week 6, Cleveland has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while also giving up the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
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18.
Chuba Hubbard
CAR (vs . KC)
Hubbard is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth in snap share and opportunity share and 14th in red zone touches. Hubbard has averaged 19.1 touches and 94.2 total yards per game. Hubbard will lose a few snaps this week to Jonathon Brooks. Much like with Kareem Hunt, this could be a problem in a week or two for Hubbard, but it doesn't change his outlook for Week 12. Hubbard will run into brick walls all day against a Chiefs run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and the lowest rushing yards per game and missed tackle rate.
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19.
Bucky Irving
TB (at NYG)
Since Week 7, Irving has been the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.5 touches and 70.5 total yards per game. He has played 39% of the snaps overall per game while averaging 50.6% of the rushing play snaps, 33.3% of the passing down snaps, and 40% of the snaps inside the ten-yard line. The Bucs have utilized him perfectly, with 54.2% of his rushing attempts coming on gap runs. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Irving should post another tasty stat line in Week 12. Since Week 6, New York has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs.
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20.
D'Andre Swift
CHI (vs . MIN)
Last week, Swift lost his stranglehold on the Bears' backfield, playing 54% of the snaps overall, 59% of the rushing plays, and only 29% of the snaps in the red zone. Roschon Johnson had a 71% snap rate inside the red zone. That will be problematic for Swift moving forward if it sticks. Swift is the RB19 in fantasy, averaging 18.3 touches and 87.8 total yards. Last week, Swift had 16 touches and 84 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift will run into brick walls all day in Week 12. Since Week 6, Minnesota has allowed the second-lowest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt and the 11th-lowest explosive run rate.
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21.
Kareem Hunt
KC (at CAR)
Since Week 6, Hunt has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 22.8 touches and 90 total yards per game. Isaiah Pacheco's return could easily hurt him the rest of the season, but I don't think it has a huge impact on his Week 12 outlook. Pacheco will likely only play a handful of snaps, if active, to ease him back into things. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hunt ranks 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. With his efficiency lacking, when Pacheco does factor into this backfield heavily, it will definitely hurt Hunt's fantasy value. Since Week 6, Carolina has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the 14th-highest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
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22.
J.K. Dobbins
LAC (vs . BAL)
Dobbins ranks 11th in snap share, 16th in weighted in opportunities, and 15th in carries as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 3, his tackle-breaking metrics have been struggling, as he has ranked 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 30th in yards after contact per attempt (among 44 qualifying backs). Dobbins has averaged 17.7 touches and 84.1 total yards. Dobbins will likely need to score a touchdown this week to pay off for fantasy. Since Week 6, Baltimore has remained an elite run defense, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate.
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23.
Tony Pollard
TEN (at HOU)
Pollard could be a workhorse this week if Tyjae Spears misses Week 12. I'll update his status on Friday. Spears' availability will have a huge impact on his outlook.
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24.
Rachaad White
TB (at NYG)
Since Week 7, White has been the RB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.3 touches and 70.8 total yards. He has averaged 56% of the snaps overall while playing 47.2% of the rushing play snaps, 60.2% of the passing down snaps, and 65% of the snaps inside the ten-yard line. Among 53 qualifying backs, White ranks 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. White has a glorious matchup this week against a Giants run defense that, since Week 6, has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (White 62.5% zone).
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25.
Austin Ekeler
WAS (vs . DAL)
Last week, Ekeler played 52% of the snaps while playing 59% of the passing down snaps. Ekeler could see his snaps drop some this week if Washington is in positive game script more and with Brian Robinson Jr. healthier. In Weeks 1-2, Ekeler averaged 8.5 touches and 73.5 total yards, with Robinson Jr. playing his usual role. Among 53 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranks 45th in yards after contact per attempt and 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Ekeler is a strong flex play this week against a leaky Dallas run defense. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest gap rushing success rate (Ekeler 56.9% gap).
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26.
Javonte Williams
DEN (at LV)
Last week, Williams remained the leader of the Denver backfield with 52% of the snaps, 13 touches, and 87 total yards. The blowout nature of last week's game is diluting Williams' role last week. In the first three-quarters of the game handled 64% of the snaps overall, 61% of the rushing play snaps, 66% of the passing down snaps, and 85% of the red zone snaps. The last time Williams matched up with the Raiders' defense, he finished with 18 touches and 111 total yards. Since Week 7, his tackle-breaking metrics haven't been great, with only a 6% missed tackle rate and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt, but the Raiders have a basement-level defense that Williams can succeed against. Since Week 6, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-most rushing scores.
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27.
Rico Dowdle
DAL (at WAS)
Dallas has been blown out in each of the last two games, which has led to Dowdle's final snap counts lying to an extent. In the first three-quarters of the last two games, Dowdle has played 59% of the snaps, with 81% of the rushing play snaps and 56% of the red zone snaps. Since Week 10, he has averaged 13.5 touches and 45 total yards. Since Week 9, among 32 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks ninth in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. On a per-snap basis, he has played well, but Dallas's quarterback play, the game scripts, and Mike McCarthy's insistence upon remaining pass-heavy despite the putrid quarterback play have hurt Dowdle. If Dallas can keep this game competitive, Dowdle can walk away with a nice stat line this week. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, the eighth-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the seventh-highest success rate to zone runs (since Week 9, Dowdle 55.9% zone).
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28.
Jaylen Warren
PIT (at CLE)
Warren has finished as an RB3 or higher in three of his last four games (RB34, RB25, RB22). He has averaged 13.5 touches and 70.3 total yards per game. Since Week 7, he has looked closer to his usual self with a 23% missed tackle rate. Warren should be a solid flex play again this week. Since Week 6, Cleveland has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while also giving up the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
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29.
Nick Chubb
CLE (vs . PIT)
Chubb has played only 30-36% of the snaps in three of his four games this season while averaging 13.8 touches and 42.3 total yards. He looks like a player coming off a major injury, with an 11% missed tackle rate and only 2.25 yards after contact per attempt. Chubb has another nice matchup on the ground incoming this week, but I don't know if he can take advantage of it. Since Week 6, Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the second-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Chubb 60.4% zone).
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30.
Audric Estime
DEN (at LV)
Just when we all thought it was safe to play Estime, Payton pulled the rug out from under us. Last week, the talented rookie only played 23% of the snaps while handling nine touches and producing 25 total yards. Most of that work came late in the game. Estime is a hold if you have the bench space as Javonte Williams' backup, but he's an easy-cut candidate if you don't have the room.
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31.
Jerome Ford
CLE (vs . PIT)
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32.
Justice Hill
BAL (at LAC)
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33.
Roschon Johnson
CHI (vs . MIN)
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34.
Isiah Pacheco
KC (at CAR)
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35.
Cam Akers
MIN (at CHI)
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36.
Trey Benson
ARI (at SEA)
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37.
Zach Charbonnet
SEA (vs . ARI)
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38.
Gus Edwards
LAC (vs . BAL)
While a Gus Edwards revenge game narrative is quite fun, it isn't likely to lead to droves of fantasy points this week. Over the last two games, Edwards has played 16-25% of the snaps while averaging only eight carries and 41 rushing yards. This isn't the matchup to consider flexing a back in a part-time early-down only role. Since Week 6, Baltimore has remained an elite run defense, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate.
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39.
Jaylen Wright
MIA (vs . NE)
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40.
Ameer Abdullah
LV (vs . DEN)
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41.
Devin Singletary
NYG (vs . TB)
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42.
Jaleel McLaughlin
DEN (at LV)
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43.
Raheem Mostert
MIA (vs . NE)
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44.
Kenneth Gainwell
PHI (at LAR)
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45.
Jonathon Brooks
CAR (vs . KC)
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46.
Antonio Gibson
NE (at MIA)
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47.
Blake Corum
LAR (vs . PHI)
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48.
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL (at WAS)
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49.
Samaje Perine
KC (at CAR)
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50.
Emanuel Wilson
GB (vs . SF)
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51.
Alexander Mattison
LV (vs . DEN)
Mattison picked up an ankle issue last week. Zamir White also left with a quad injury. I'll update Mattison's outlook on Friday, but it could be Ameer Abdullah or Dylan Laube starting at running back for the Raiders this week.
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52.
Jeremy McNichols
WAS (vs . DAL)
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53.
Chris Brooks
GB (vs . SF)
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54.
Jordan Mason
SF (at GB)
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55.
Zamir White
LV (vs . DEN)
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56.
JaMycal Hasty
NE (at MIA)
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57.
Dameon Pierce
HOU (vs . TEN)
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58.
Emari Demercado
ARI (at SEA)
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59.
Dare Ogunbowale
HOU (vs . TEN)
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60.
Tyjae Spears
TEN (at HOU)
Spears is working through the concussion protocol. On Friday, I'll update his status and outlook for Week 12.
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61.
Cordarrelle Patterson
PIT (at CLE)
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62.
Trey Sermon
IND (vs . DET)
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63.
Julius Chestnut
TEN (at HOU)
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64.
Sean Tucker
TB (at NYG)
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65.
Kyle Juszczyk
SF (at GB)
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66.
Tyler Goodson
IND (vs . DET)
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67.
Keaton Mitchell
BAL (at LAC)
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68.
Dylan Laube
LV (vs . DEN)
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69.
Hassan Haskins
LAC (vs . BAL)
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70.
Carson Steele
KC (at CAR)
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71.
Pierre Strong Jr.
CLE (vs . PIT)
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72.
Isaac Guerendo
SF (at GB)
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73.
Deuce Vaughn
DAL (at WAS)
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74.
Ty Chandler
MIN (at CHI)
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75.
Patrick Ricard
BAL (at LAC)
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76.
Hunter Luepke
DAL (at WAS)
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77.
C.J. Ham
MIN (at CHI)
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78.
Will Shipley
PHI (at LAR)
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79.
Craig Reynolds
DET (at IND)
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80.
Travis Homer
CHI (vs . MIN)
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81.
Michael Burton
DEN (at LV)
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82.
Alec Ingold
MIA (vs . NE)
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83.
Eric Gray
NYG (vs . TB)
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84.
Dalvin Cook
DAL (at WAS)
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85.
Sione Vaki
DET (at IND)
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86.
Kenny McIntosh
SEA (vs . ARI)
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87.
Tyreik McAllister
LV (vs . DEN)
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88.
Ronnie Rivers
LAR (vs . PHI)
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89.
Raheem Blackshear
CAR (vs . KC)
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90.
Miles Sanders
CAR (vs . KC)
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91.
DeeJay Dallas
ARI (at SEA)
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92.
Blake Watson
DEN (at LV)
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93.
Terrell Jennings
NE (at MIA)
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94.
Joshua Kelley
TEN (at HOU)
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95.
J.J. Taylor
HOU (vs . TEN)
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96.
MarShawn Lloyd
GB (vs . SF)
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97.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
KC (at CAR)
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98.
Kimani Vidal
LAC (vs . BAL)
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99.
Sincere McCormick
LV (vs . DEN)
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100.
D'Onta Foreman
CLE (vs . PIT)
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101.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
WAS (vs . DAL)
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102.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
MIA (vs . NE)
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103.
Rasheen Ali
BAL (at LAC)
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