Fantasy Football Player Notes

Robinson Jr. will be quite good this year, but he opens with a brutal matchup to begin the 2024 season. Last year, he didn't get enough credit for his performance. Robinson Jr. was the RB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate, 13th in yards after contact per attempt, and fifth in yards per route run. In the 12 games in which he played at least 40% of the snaps, Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 total yards per game. Robinson Jr. will probably sniff at least 15 touches in Week 1, but he probably needs a touchdown to pay off. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while giving up the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Robinson is an RB2/3.

This isn't a matchup to consider sneaking Ekeler into your flex. Even if we want to excuse Ekeler's 2023 performance, this is a brutal matchup on the ground and through the air for backs. Last year among 49 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranked 38th in yards after contact per attempt and 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while giving up the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Daniels isn't likely to check down much, as he will more likely take off running when his options downfield are covered. We should look to Ekeler's pass game involvement if on limited target volume when the matchup dictates that his efficiency with that work could see a matchup bump. That isn't the case here. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-lowest yards per reception and the eighth-fewest receiving touchdowns to backs. Sit Ekeler.