Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 1 PPR Rankings
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44.
Terry McLaurin
WR - (at TB)
McLaurin is set to bounce back this year if Daniels is the passer that I think he is. Last year, he finished as the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but his WR21 rank in expected fantasy points per game is closer to what I hope we get in 2024. Last season, he still led the team with a 20.4% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Sam Howell was a crushing blow of inefficiency, though ranking 21st in CPOE and 25th in clean pocket passer rating. If Daniels has time in the pocket in Week 1, McLaurin should have a boom game. Last year, Tampa Bay utilized single-high on 53.4% of their defensive snaps. Last year, against single-high, McLaurin had 1.96 YPRR and a 25.8% first-read share. McLaurin will line up against Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) for most of the day. Last season, the Bucs allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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89.
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB - (at TB)
Robinson Jr. will be quite good this year, but he opens with a brutal matchup to begin the 2024 season. Last year, he didn't get enough credit for his performance. Robinson Jr. was the RB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate, 13th in yards after contact per attempt, and fifth in yards per route run. In the 12 games in which he played at least 40% of the snaps, Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 total yards per game. Robinson Jr. will probably sniff at least 15 touches in Week 1, but he probably needs a touchdown to pay off. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while giving up the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Robinson is an RB2/3.
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93.
Austin Ekeler
RB - (at TB)
This isn't a matchup to consider sneaking Ekeler into your flex. Even if we want to excuse Ekeler's 2023 performance, this is a brutal matchup on the ground and through the air for backs. Last year among 49 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranked 38th in yards after contact per attempt and 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while giving up the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Daniels isn't likely to check down much, as he will more likely take off running when his options downfield are covered. We should look to Ekeler's pass game involvement if on limited target volume when the matchup dictates that his efficiency with that work could see a matchup bump. That isn't the case here. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-lowest yards per reception and the eighth-fewest receiving touchdowns to backs. Sit Ekeler.
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140.
Zach Ertz
TE - (at TB)
Yes, I know you were looking for Ben Sinnott, aka the Lawmaker here. I'd love to write up Sinnott as a Week 1 play, but I have no clue what his snap share and routes per dropback rate will be. Just because I'm avoiding him here means he's likely to score a touchdown this week. Now that I got that out of the way, I'm going to puke after saying this, but Ertz is a good streaming option for Week 1. Last year, he looked every bit like the player you'd think is on the back nine of his career. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he did rank tenth in target share but was also 39th in YPRR and 40th in FD/RR. Ertz is a volume and matchup play. Last year, Tampa Bay was ripped apart by tight ends giving up the second-most receiving yards, the 11th-highest yards per reception, and the third-most fantasy points per game.
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171.
Ben Sinnott
TE - (at TB)
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173.
Luke McCaffrey
WR - (at TB)
Well, well, well. Look at that. McCaffrey is now projected to be a starter in two wide receiver sets for Washington. McCaffrey has been a crush of mine since I watched him at the Senior Bowl in Mobile (shout out to Jim Nagy). McCaffrey could hit the ground running in Week 1 against a team that utilized zone coverage on 73.9% of their defensive snaps last year. Last year against zone among 111 qualifying FBS wide receivers, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and 28th in YPRR against zone. If McCaffrey is lining up on the perimeter for most of the game, he'll see Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) in coverage. McCaffrey is a fine deep-league flex.
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178.
K.J. Osborn
WR - (at TB)
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196.
Dyami Brown
WR - (at TB)
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197.
Noah Brown
WR - (at TB)
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225.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB - (at TB)
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240.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - (at TB)
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287.
John Bates
TE - (at TB)
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305.
Jamison Crowder
WR - (at TB)
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307.
Chris Moore
WR - (at TB)
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333.
Jeremy McNichols
RB - (at TB)
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402.
Colson Yankoff
RB,TE - (at TB)
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438.
Cole Turner
TE - (at TB)
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455.
Michael Wiley
RB - (at TB)
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474.
Michael Strachan
WR - (at TB)
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475.
Lawrence Cager
TE - (at TB)
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493.
Demetric Felton Jr.
RB - (at TB)
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525.
Tyree Jackson
TE - (at TB)
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