Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 1 Rankings
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1.
Josh Allen
BUF (vs . ARI)
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2.
Jalen Hurts
PHI (vs . GB)
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3.
Patrick Mahomes II
KC (vs . BAL)
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4.
Lamar Jackson
BAL (at KC)
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5.
Anthony Richardson
IND (vs . HOU)
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6.
C.J. Stroud
HOU (at IND)
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7.
Kyler Murray
ARI (at BUF)
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8.
Jordan Love
GB (at PHI)
Last year, to close the season, Love was on fire. In Weeks 11-18, he was the QB4 in fantasy points per game while ranking 11th in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. To open the 2024 season, he encounters a Philly pass defense that will look quite different in terms of the scheme but will be deploying plenty of the same names that filled out the lineup card last year. In 2023, the Eagles allowed the fifth-most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns and fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While I don't expect this defense to be a bottom-five unit against the pass this season, we still have to see how much they improve with Vic Fangio calling the shots. This is, at worst, a middle-of-the-road matchup for Love. Fire him up as a QB1 in Week 1.
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9.
Jared Goff
DET (vs . LAR)
Goff was the QB11 in fantasy last year, ranking 10th in yards per attempt, 13th in CPOE, fifth in passing yards per game, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate. Another year of solid fantasy production as a late-round draft pick. Goff also flashed some ceiling with five weeks as the QB6 or higher in fantasy scoring. He faces his former team, which was tough against quarterbacks last year. The Rams held passers to the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, the 10th-lowest CPOE, and the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate last year. They don't have Aaron Donald this season and have had some turnover at cornerback, so we'll see if they can continue to stifle passing like they did last year. This is best viewed as a neutral matchup with a high total that Goff can likely take advantage of.
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10.
Jayden Daniels
WAS (at TB)
The Daniels' show begins in Week 1. We know the rushing upside he possesses, but let's talk about his passing upside. During his final season at LSU, Daniels ranked in the top six in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, and big-time throw rate. Daniels can carve up this secondary. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the third-highest passing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per attempt, and the 12th-most passing touchdowns (tied). The Bucs ranked 21st in pressure rate last year. If that holds up in Week 1, Daniels should have time in the pocket to burn them deep. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the second-most passing touchdowns and the eighth-highest deep completion rate. If you drafted Daniels, enjoy the show.
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11.
Joe Burrow
CIN (vs . NE)
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12.
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA (vs . JAC)
Last year, Tagovailoa was the QB16 in fantasy points per game, even though he was the NFL leader in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns. His 2023 season was a rollercoaster where he surpassed 308 passing yards five times, but he also didn't manage more than 250 passing yards in eight outings. Tagovailoa was quite efficient with his dropbacks, ranking third in yards per attempt, sixth in CPOE, and third in highly accurate throw rate. Tagovailoa should open the year flirting with QB1 numbers against a pass defense that allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns and passing yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
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13.
Trevor Lawrence
JAC (at MIA)
Lawrence was battered and bruised for most of last season. He dealt with a sprained MCL, ankle sprain, concussion, and bruised right shoulder. He still willed his way to a QB13 finish in fantasy points per game while ranking 14th in CPOE and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. Lawrence should light up the Dolphins' secondary in Week 1. Last year, Miami allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Miami's issues with defending play-action last year, if still present, could be their undoing. Last year, the Dolphins allowed the ninth-highest passer rating and the fifth-most passing touchdowns to play-action passing. Lawrence was 10th in play-action dropbacks and sixth in big-time throw rate on play-action passes.
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14.
Caleb Williams
CHI (vs . TEN)
Williams flashed his big-time upside in the preseason. He had a 13% big-time throw rate and 8.5 yards per attempt while also having some rookie growing pains (61.1% adjusted completion rate). We all know Williams was a high-end prospect who could hit the ground running immediately in his rookie season as a talented receiving depth chart flanks him. The Tennessee pass defense allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and CPOE and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate last year, but that could change this year. This offseason upgrading the secondary was of prime importance with the additions of Quandre Diggs, Chidobe Awuzie, and L'Jarius Snead. Williams could return QB1 production in Week 1, but it's more reasonable to expect a QB2 stat line.
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15.
Matthew Stafford
LAR (at DET)
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16.
Dak Prescott
DAL (at CLE)
Last year, Prescott finished as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, having arguably the best season of his NFL career. Prescott really started balling out after Week 5, and Dallas leaned into the passing game. In Weeks 6-18, Prescott was the QB1 in fantasy points per game while ranking fifth in adjusted completion rate, first in CPOE, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Prescott will have his work cut out for him in Week 1 against a Browns' secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the second-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating last year.
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17.
Baker Mayfield
TB (vs . WAS)
If you're looking for upside at your QB2 spot this week in Superflex leagues, look no further than Mayfield. He was the QB17 in fantasy points per game last year, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. None of this sounds overwhelmingly enticing, but the matchup is glorious. Washington will likely be a better pass defense than they were last year, but that's not saying much when there's a case to be made that they were the worst pass defense in the NFL in 2023. Last season, Washington allowed the most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns while also surrendering the third-highest yards per attempt. This game could easily shoot out in Week 1 if the Commanders' offense can push back on the other side.
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18.
Brock Purdy
SF (vs . NYJ)
Purdy was amazing last year, no matter what metric you look at. He was the QB6 in fantasy points per game and first in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy was also sixth in passing yards per game, third in passing touchdowns, third in CPOE, and 11th in adjusted completion rate. While he could easily turn in a QB1 outing in Week 1, if you have other options to consider in the same low-end QB1 area code, I would seriously consider starting them. The Jets were the wrecker of quarterbacks' dreams last year, allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the fewest fantasy points per game, and the second-lowest CPOE. This looks like a game where the 49ers could lean on Christian McCaffrey.
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19.
Geno Smith
SEA (vs . DEN)
Smith's stats sagged last year as he worked behind a patchwork and injured offensive line. Smith was the QB20 in fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in yards per attempt and 18th in CPOE. It was a different story when he had clean pockets. Too bad he faced the seventh-highest pressure rate and rarely saw them. When he did have a clean pocket, he ranked eighth in yards per attempt, second in hero throw rate, and fifth in passing grade. Denver had the fourth-lowest pressure rate last year. Chef Geno should cook in Week 1. Last year, Denver allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards per game, and the fifth-most passing touchdowns. If you're looking for a streamer or deciding between QB2s in Superflex, Smith should be at the top of the list.
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20.
Justin Herbert
LAC (vs . LV)
We've speculated all offseason, but now we finally get to see how much a Greg Roman offense will impact Herbert's fantasy outlook. He's coming off another solid fantasy season as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Herbert's underlying accuracy metrics last year are concerning even if we take the passing volume concerns out of the equation. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks last season, he ranked 26th in yards per attempt, 22nd in CPOE, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate. Despite these concerns, Herbert should return decent QB2 numbers in Week 1. After Antonio Pierce took over last year, his pass defense allowed the 14th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest CPOE, and the third-highest adjusted completion rate.
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21.
Kirk Cousins
ATL (vs . PIT)
Before the Achilles injury derailed Cousins' 2023 season, he was the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Captain Kohl's was 13th in highly accurate throw rate, seventh in CPOE, and fourth in adjusted completion rate. Cousins' mobility will be tested immediately in Week 1. Last year, the Steelers' pass defense was a middling unit, allowing the 14th-highest yards per attempt and the 12th-most passing touchdowns while sitting at 15th in passing yards per game permitted. Pittsburgh will keep Cousins' on his toes, though, as they were sixth in blitz rate and 11th in pressure rate last year. If Cousins can handle the chaos, he should have a productive day, as he was 14th in passing grade and second in adjusted completion rate when blitzed last year.
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22.
Justin Fields
PIT (at ATL)
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23.
Deshaun Watson
CLE (vs . DAL)
Last year, in his full games played, Watson averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the QB15 in fantasy points per game. Watson's rushing did most of the heavy lifting for that production. He averaged 28.4 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked eighth-best last year among quarterbacks (minimum five games started). As a passer, he was objectively a replacement-level quarterback. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he finished 28th in CPOE, 36th in adjusted completion rate, 35th in catchable target rate, and 36th in highly accurate target rate. He'll need every bit of rushing equity to turn in a good performance against Dallas in Week 1. Last year, the Cowboys allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
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24.
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ (at SF)
The last time we saw Rodgers play a full season, he was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, ranking 26th in yards per attempt and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback. His deeper accuracy metrics paint the picture of a quarterback that is far from washed, though, as he was also 11th in CPOE and third in hero throw rate. The 49ers are a tough opening match. Their pass defense allowed the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. Rodgers is a decent QB2, but if you're playing matchups, there are plenty of QB2s that have better ones in Week 1.
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25.
Daniel Jones
MIN (at NYG)
Wow. Just wow. Jones was absolutely abysmal last year. In Weeks 1-4, he was the QB26 in fantasy points per game. At times, he honestly looked like he forgot how to play football. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks last year, he was 43rd in yards per attempt, 30th in CPOE, and 43rd in fantasy points per dropback. Jones faces a favorable secondary in Week 1 that he can possibly exploit if he can keep his composure. Last year, Minnesota allowed the fourth-highest CPOE and the 10th-highest passing yards per game while ranking 16th in yards per attempt given up. Jones could wilt under the blitz pressure that Brian Flores is likely to bring, though. Last year, Minnesota ranked first in blitz rate as Flores brought the heat on a whopping 51.5% of their defensive snaps. Jones is a viable low-end QB2 option, but I'll likely try to find another option if possible.
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26.
Sam Darnold
MIN (at NYG)
I can't believe I'm about to type this, but the last time we saw Darnold under center, he wasn't terrible. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks in 2022, he ranked second in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Those are the good marks. He also had the 11th-lowest highly accurate throw rate and the 14th-lowest adjusted completion rate. The Kevin O'Connell effect could be kind to him this year. The Giants are a decent test in Week 1. Last year, New York ranked 15th in yards per attempt allowed while also holding passers to the eighth-lowest CPOE, the 10th-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game. Darnold is a middling QB2.
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27.
Will Levis
TEN (at CHI)
Levis was middling at best last year after taking over the starting job. In Weeks 8-15, he averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game, which over the course of a full season would have placed him as the QB30 in fantasy. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 21st in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Nothing about his starting tenure was impressive outside of his Week 8 game against the Falcons. Unfortunately, he begins the season with a stout matchup against a Bears' pass defense that was among the best in the league to close the 2023 season. After Week 11, Chicago allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and the third-lowest passer rating and adjusted completion rate. Levis is better off on your benches this week unless you're desperate in a Superflex format.
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28.
Derek Carr
NO (vs . CAR)
Carr might not be the sexiest name in fantasy, but he was amazing down the stretch last season. In Weeks 12-18 last year, he was the QB15 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn't do justice to how good he was. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in that span, he was 11th in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdowns, second in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. He's not a bad QB2/streaming option this season, but I wouldn't look to plug him into lineups in Week 1. Carr draws a Carolina pass defense that last year allowed the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
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29.
Bryce Young
CAR (at NO)
There are not many players for fantasy that I feel like "I need to see" before I'm willing to put them into a lineup, but Young is one of them. Last year was BAD in every sense of the word. Young was the QB29 in fantasy points per game, with only two QB1 outings for the year. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 44th in yards per attempt, 33rd in CPOE, and 44th in fantasy points per dropback. The Saints are no pushover pass defense, either. Last season, New Orleans allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. Even in Superflex, I'm willing to play a wide receiver or running back over Young.
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30.
Bo Nix
DEN (at SEA)
During his final collegiate season, Nix was the on-paper model of efficiency, ranking top five in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, and yards per attempt. He was similarly efficient in the preseason. Among 53 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fifth in passing grade, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and 11th in yards per attempt. Nix is a fine QB2 this week, facing a pass defense that kept quarterbacks in check last year, allowing the 11th-lowest CPOE, the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns, and sitting at 15th in fantasy points per game.
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31.
Gardner Minshew II
LV (at LAC)
After taking over as the Colts starting quarterback last season, Minshew was the QB26 in fantasy points per game. He was pedestrian in every metric I care about regarding quarterback play. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 28th in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 31st in fantasy points per dropback, and 37th in catchable target rate. The on-paper matchup looks tasty, but take it with a grain of salt with a new coaching staff in place and some new personnel in the secondary. Last year, the Chargers allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate, and the seventh-highest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Minshew, at best, is a mid-QB2.
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32.
Jacoby Brissett
NE (at CIN)
The last time we saw Brissett in an extended starting role was in 2022, when he was with Cleveland. In that season, he ranked 20th in yards per attempt, fourth in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. Brissett could return nice streaming upside this week for Fantasy GMs in deeper Superflex formats. Last year, Cincy allowed the highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most passing yards per game.
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33.
Drake Maye
NE (at CIN)
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34.
Aidan O'Connell
LV (at LAC)
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35.
Sam Howell
SEA (vs . DEN)
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36.
Michael Penix Jr.
ATL (vs . PIT)
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37.
Jarrett Stidham
DEN (at SEA)
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38.
Joe Flacco
IND (vs . HOU)
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39.
Jameis Winston
CLE (vs . DAL)
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40.
Drew Lock
NYG (vs . MIN)
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41.
Tyrod Taylor
NYJ (at SF)
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42.
Jake Browning
CIN (vs . NE)
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43.
Nick Mullens
MIN (at NYG)
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44.
Mac Jones
JAC (at MIA)
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45.
Josh Johnson
BAL (at KC)
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46.
Tyson Bagent
CHI (vs . TEN)
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47.
Kenny Pickett
PHI (vs . GB)
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48.
Mason Rudolph
TEN (at CHI)
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49.
Hendon Hooker
DET (vs . LAR)
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50.
Andy Dalton
CAR (at NO)
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51.
Davis Mills
HOU (at IND)
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52.
Skylar Thompson
PIT (at ATL)
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53.
Kyle Trask
TB (vs . WAS)
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54.
Carson Wentz
KC (vs . BAL)
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55.
Clayton Tune
ARI (at BUF)
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56.
Mitchell Trubisky
BUF (vs . ARI)
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57.
Malik Willis
GB (at PHI)
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58.
Cooper Rush
DAL (at CLE)
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59.
Easton Stick
LAC (vs . LV)
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60.
Brandon Allen
SF (vs . NYJ)
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61.
Jeff Driskel
WAS (at TB)
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62.
Stetson Bennett
LAR (at DET)
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63.
Mike White
BUF (vs . ARI)
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64.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
CLE (vs . DAL)
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65.
Jake Haener
NO (vs . CAR)
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66.
Kyle Allen
PIT (at ATL)
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67.
Tyler Huntley
MIA (vs . JAC)
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68.
Jaren Hall
SEA (vs . DEN)
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69.
Sean Clifford
GB (at PHI)
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70.
Desmond Ridder
LV (at LAC)
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71.
Taysom Hill
NO (vs . CAR)
Hill is the ultimate wildcard at tight end. He finished last year as the TE15, but that doesn't really convey how valuable he was in fantasy. Hill managed seven outings where he was a top-10 fantasy tight end (TE6, TE6, TE3, TE6, TE6, TE10, TE8). He contributed in the passing game and on the ground with 692 total yards from scrimmage with six touchdowns. Hill will play a Swiss army knife role again for New Orleans in 2024. If you need a dice roll any week that could finish with TE1 numbers, Hill is your guy.
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72.
Carter Bradley
LV (at LAC)
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73.
Blaine Gabbert
FA (BYE)
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74.
Michael Pratt
TB (vs . WAS)
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75.
Ryan Tannehill
FA (BYE)
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76.
Logan Woodside
FA (BYE)
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77.
Tim Boyle
NYG (vs . MIN)
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78.
Jake Fromm
DET (vs . LAR)
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79.
Reid Sinnett
FA (BYE)
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80.
Feleipe Franks
CAR (at NO)
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81.
Trevor Siemian
FA (BYE)
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82.
Sam Ehlinger
IND (vs . HOU)
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83.
Adam Froman
ATL (vs . PIT)
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84.
Devin Leary
BAL (at KC)
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85.
C.J. Beathard
JAC (at MIA)
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86.
Adrian Martinez
NYJ (at SF)
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87.
Matt Corral
FA (BYE)
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88.
Will Grier
DAL (at CLE)
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89.
John Wolford
FA (BYE)
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90.
Ben Chappell
WAS (at TB)
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91.
Bailey Zappe
CLE (vs . DAL)
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92.
Matt Barkley
FA (BYE)
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93.
Collin Hill
FA (BYE)
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