Calvin Ridley Week 1 Outlook - Titans at Bears

By Derek Brown (FantasyPros), Wed, Sep 4th 2024, 8:38pm EDT

We can't dance around this fact. Ridley was a disappointment last year in Fantasy Football, but hey, it's a new season and a chance for Ridley to reenter Fantasy GMs' good graces. He was the WR27 in fantasy points per game while also ranking as the WR14 in expected fantasy points per game. His market share numbers were passable (21.6% target share, 38% air-yard share), but his per-route efficiency was horrendous. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he was 44th in yards per route run and 42nd in first downs per route run. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it's tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Ridley had a 25% target per route run rate (TPRR), 2.20 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.100 first downs per route run (FD/RR). Ridley will see Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.