Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 15 Half PPR Rankings
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1.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA (vs . IND)
After his only down week of the season, JSN bounced back with two touchdowns and 91 yards on seven receptions. This is the JSN we had come to expect this season, leading the league in receiving yards (by 242 yards). This week, they face the Colts, who may be starting 44-year-old Philip Rivers under center. The Seattle defence should feast this week, and there is a chance they'll try to run the clock as early as the first quarter. Either way, if they are going to pass, it's going to JSN. The Colts have allowed the tenth most fantasy points to the position over the last five weeks and don't have an answer for JSN with Sauce Gardner out.
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2.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN (vs . BAL)
Coming off a mediocre performance against Buffalo, Chase looks to bounce back against a team he has dominated in the past. Chase has a storied history against the Ravens, highlighted by last year's two incredible games, where he combined for 21 receptions, 457 yards, and five touchdowns. Two weeks ago, he caught seven of 14 targets for 110 yards. With the Ravens dropping two crucial divisional games over their last two weeks, this should be a great game in Cincinnati. Chase hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 7 and is primed to change that in this matchup. Forget last week, and hope Chase can have a vintage performance against the Ravens.
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3.
Puka Nacua
LAR (vs . DET)
He finally found the endzone. After four straight weeks of WR2 production, I dared to call him a WR2 heading into last week. Well, 167 yards and two scores have me still wiping egg from my face. Turns out, Davante Adams can't score touchdowns each week. As a result, adding touchdowns to Puka's already elite yardage totals shows us why he is one of the best in the league. The Rams, facing the Lions in Week 15, might be the fantasy game of the week. With two powerhouse offenses, we could be in line for massive fantasy finishes. If there was ever a matchup for Puka to start a touchdown streak, it may be this one. However, even if he doesn't find paydirt, he is locked into great usage and yardage totals.
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4.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET (at LAR)
ARSB playing last week after injuring his ankle in Week 13 was one of the most surprising recoveries I can remember. After spraining his ankle, it appeared incredibly unlikely he would suit up against the Cowboys. Despite this, he was ruled to be active an hour before kickoff and caught six passes for 92 yards. On the season, he has been one of the most reliable fantasy options. This week, he faces the Rams in a game that is primed for fantasy fireworks. The Rams' defensive strength is their defensive line; however, their secondary is near league average in fantasy points allowed to the WR position over the last five weeks. With a guaranteed hearty dose of targets, ARSB is locked in for another WR1 week.
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5.
Davante Adams
LAR (vs . DET)
We all knew that if Adams' failed to find the endzone, it was going to be a tough week for his fantasy managers. However, the connection with Matthew Stafford has been so automatic, that Adams not scoring seemed impossible. Somehow, in a game where the Rams dropped 45 points, Adams did not score. Thankfully, he has a perfect matchup in Week 15. The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers over the last five weeks. Over this span, they have averaged 178.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns to the position each game. In a game that has shootout written all over it, Adams should bounce back and be a locked-in WR1 for fantasy heading into the fantasy playoffs.
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6.
Rashee Rice
KC (vs . LAC)
Rice may be a great fantasy receiver, but last week we saw the issue of the Chiefs not having a true WR1 against the Texans. In a massive game for their playoff hopes, the Chiefs were dominated by the Texans' defense. Unfortunately, the road doesn't get a lot easier as they face the Chargers in Week 15. The Chargers have allowed teh fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs over the last five weeks. Averaging less than 100 yards and 0.4 toucdowns per game to receivers, this defense is likely salivating at the chance to put the Chiefs' playoff hopes to bed. As Patrick Mahomes' top target, he will always see enough volume to come through for fantasy. Start him as a low-end WR1 this week.
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7.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL (vs . MIN)
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8.
Nico Collins
HOU (vs . ARI)
The Texans have two components: an elite defense, and Nico Collins. With those two pieces, they have been cruising past some of the league's best teams over the last few weeks. With eight or more targets in all but one of his last seven games, CJ. Stroud relies on Collins to move the chains each week. Unfortunately, he only has one receiving touchdown over that span, but he has five games with over 75 receiving yards. As a result, he is a rock-solid WR1 with week-winning upside if he finds the endzone. This week, they play the Cardinals, who just allowed Puka Nacua to have 167 yards and two scores. It's a great matchup for the Texans' star, and he is a locked-in WR1 once agains this week.
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9.
George Pickens
DAL (vs . MIN)
It finally appeared that Pickens' attitude was no longer an issue with his new team. Unfortunately, they popped back up in a tough loss last week to the Lions. Looking like he was still at practice, walking through the game plan, Pickens only had five catches for 37 yards and a fumble. Down weeks happen to all receivers, but for it to happen against the defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts? I didn't see that coming. This week, he has a chance to redeem himself against a decent Vikings defense. This defense is coming off a shutout win against the Commanders, and has allowed the third fewest fantasy points and fewest touchdowns to the receiver position over the last five weeks. With CeeDee Lamb's availability up in the air after suffering a concussion last Thursday, Pickens may need to step up if the Cowboys want to bounce back. Hopefully, this means he runs his routes at full speed and is the WR1 for fantasy that we've seen all season.
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10.
A.J. Brown
PHI (vs . LV)
I hope the Eagles have one of those Men in Black memory erasers in their locker room, because they really need to forget about last week. Thankfully, AJ. Brown managed to come through for his third straight week of at least 100 yards. For whatever reason, something has started to click between Brown and Jalen Hurts, making him a reliable WR1 in fantasy once again. This week, they play the Raiders, who are a pass-funnel defense. On paper, the Raiders are around league average against fantasy receivers. However, this is likely skewed due to the amount of negative gamescripts they find themselves in. Outside of Maxx Crosby, this defense has no one that can compete with the talent on the Eagles. Unless Saqoun Barkley has a massive day (which hasn't been the case this season), Brown should easily find his way to a fourth consecutive 100-yard game.
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11.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA (at PIT)
After two down weeks, Waddle bounced back with a WR10 finish in Week 14. Finishing with 50 receiving yards and a score, his 21-yard rush was icing for fantasy managers. This week, the Dolphins face the Steelers, who are allowing the 11th most fantasy points to the WR position over the last five weeks. This includes last week, when they allowed Zay Flowers to have eight catches for 124 yards. Waddle may not be the WR1 we had hoped for without Tyreek Hill, but his usage as the team's top target makes him a fringe WR1 in a plus matchup this week.
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12.
Jameson Williams
DET (at LAR)
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13.
Michael Wilson
ARI (at HOU)
It's finally time for Michael Wilson to enter the WR1 discussion. Call the Cardinals offense a PPR scam, maybe even call them a joke, but take their fantasy production seriously. In three of his last four games, he has combined for 49 targets, 36 receptions, and 445 yards. That's an average of 16.3 targets, 12 receptions, and 148.3 yards over those games. Unfortunately, he only has one touchdown in his last four games, but the yardage and targets are out of this world. Regardless of whether Marvin Harrison Jr. comes back, Wilson is a must-start player in all formats. Unfortunately, his WR1 ability will be put to the test this week against Derek Stingley Jr. and an incredible Texans defense. Maybe temper expectations for this week, but he should still find a way to get enough targets to come through for fantasy.
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14.
Tetairoa McMillan
CAR (at NO)
Tetairoa McMillan is the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 23.5% target share, 63.5 receiving yards per game, 2.02 yards per route run, and a 28.2% first-read share. He leads the team with 14 red zone targets and 16 deep targets. This week, he faces a Saints' secondary that, since Week 6, has had the third-highest single high rate (60.3%). Against single high, McMillan has seen his target share rise to 26.4% with 2.19 yards per route run and a 32.3% first-read share. McMillan has a tough matchup that he'll have to overcome while also dealing with Bryce Young's yo-yo style of quarterback play. Since Week 10, the Saints have held perimeter wide receivers to the eight-fewest PPR points per target and the lowest passer rating when targeted.
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15.
Justin Jefferson
MIN (at DAL)
In JJ McCarthy's seven games with Justin Jefferson this season, he has two WR2 weekly finishes (WR18, WR20) with a 29.1% target share, 47 receiving yards per game, 1.62 yards per route run, and a 34.1% first-read share. In those seven games, he has seven red zone targets and nine deep targets. Last week was a disappointing game for Jefferson, no doubt. This is the volatility that we unfortunately see with a young quarterback who has been struggling and trying to find his NFL legs. Jefferson is a volatile play again this week with a nice matchup. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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16.
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG (vs . WAS)
Wan'Dale Robinson is having a wonderful breakout season as the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 25.9% target share with 63.7 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. Robinson should have another strong game this week. Since Week 11, Washington has led the NFL in two high rate (70%!). Against two high, Robinson has maintained strong usage with a 25.6% target share, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 32.2% first-read share. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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17.
Chris Olave
NO (vs . CAR)
Since Week 9, with Tyler Shough under center, Olave has been the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 22.4% target share, 61.6 receiving yards per game, 1.95 yards per route run, and a 31.3% first-read share. In those five games, Olave has four end zone targets and ten deep targets. This week, he faces a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 8, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58.5%). Since Week 9, against single high, Olave has had a 26.5% first-read share with 2.19 yards per route run and a 31.3% first-read share. Olave is a strong WR1/2 again this week. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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18.
Terry McLaurin
WAS (at NYG)
In his six games played this season, McLaurin has two top 24 weekly finishes (WR8, WR20) with seven red zone targets and seven deep targets. McLaurin has a 19.8% target share with 2.15 yards per route run and a 26.2% first-read share. If Marcus Mariota is looking to stretch the field, McLaurin (13.7 aDOT) should have a strong game this week. New York has allowed the seventh-highest deep ball completion rate, the third-most deep passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest passer rating to downfield passing. This feels like a nice bounce-back spot for McLaurin. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and ranked 16th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers.
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19.
Zay Flowers
BAL (at CIN)
Zay Flowers exploded last week with his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 1. Flowers is the WR27 in fantasy points per game with a 26.7% target share, 68.5 receiving yards per game, 2.32 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Flowers leads the team with 15 deep targets, but he has only seven red zone targets, which is tied for second on the team. The last time Flowers faced the Bengals, DJ Turner followed him on 62.9% of his routes, holding him to two targets and zero receiving yards in his coverage. Turner has shadowed six times this season, following Flowers, DK Metcalf (twice), Justin Jefferson, Romeo Doubs, and Gabe Davis on 62.9-90.3% of their routes, holding each receiver to 45 or fewer scoreless receiving yards. I'm worried about Flowers this week. Even if Turner isn't in his back pocket for most of the game, we also need to talk about the fact that the last time Cincy played Baltimore, they utilized two high with 52.6% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Flowers has had a 23.1% target share, 1.68 yards per route run, and a 30.5% first-read share. The market share against two high remains high, but the efficiency dip isn't great. Flowers could still finish with a solid stat line, but I doubt it will be a boom week.
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20.
DK Metcalf
PIT (vs . MIA)
DK Metcalf is the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 22.2% target share with 57.9 receiving yards per game, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 28.7% first-read share. Metcalf leads the team with 13 red zone targets and 16 deep targets. This week, he faces a Dolphins' secondary that, since Week 13, has had the third-highest two-high rate (68.2%). Against two high, Metcalf has seen his target share dip to 16.7% with 1.67 yards per route run and a 22% first-read share. Metcalf's decreased efficiency against two high has been an issue dating back to his Seattle days. He remains a solid WR3. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in fantasy points per game surrendered to the position.
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21.
Jakobi Meyers
JAC (vs . NYJ)
Since Week 11, Jakobi Meyers has been the Jags' unquestioned WR1 with a 24.5% target share, 60.8 receiving yards per game, 2.29 yards per route run, and a 29.9% first-read share. In those four games, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. He's a strong WR2/3 again this week. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in PPR points per target against perimeter wide receivers.
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22.
DeVonta Smith
PHI (vs . LV)
DeVonta Smith is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 24.9% target share with 64.5 receiving yards per game, with 2.02 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. Smith has eight red zone targets this season and is tied for the team lead with 19 deep targets. This week, he faces a Raiders' secondary that, since Week 9, has had the second-highest single high rate (62.1%). A.J. Brown has led the way for the Philly passing attack, but Smith has been involved heavily as well with a 23.2% target share, 1.93 yards per route run, and a 28.8% first-read share. Since Week 10, the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. Smith remains in the WR2/3 bucket for Week 15
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23.
Jauan Jennings
SF (vs . TEN)
Since Week 9, Jauan Jennings has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 21.2% target share, 49.2 receiving yards per game, 1.92 yards per route run, and a 30.7% first-read share. In those five games, he has had six red zone targets and four deep targets. He has been the clear WR2 in the offense even since Ricky Pearsall has been back in the lineup. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jennings should smash again this week.
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24.
Stefon Diggs
NE (vs . BUF)
Since Week 12, Stefon Diggs has seen his usage dip again with a 53.3% route share, a 10.6% target share, and a 12.8% first-read share. Diggs may continue to see this limited usage coming out of the bye, but I expect his usage to increase in a massive game against his former employer. Overall, Diggs has a 64.4% route share, a 20.1% target share, 54.2 receiving yards per game, 2.30 yards per route run, and a 22% first-read share. Diggs is second on the team with 11 red zone targets and eight deep targets. This week, he faces a Bills' secondary that has the third-highest two-high rate (57.2%). Against two high, Diggs has had a 22.8% target share, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 26.9% first-read share. With Christian Benford ruled out, Diggs' floor and ceiling projection just got a bump for Week 15. The Bills haven't been a good matchup for perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 10, they have given up the 13th-fewest PPR points per target to the position, but losing Benford is huge this week. I consider their pass defense to be middle-of-the-road without him against outside wide receivers this week.Â
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25.
Christian Watson
GB (at DEN)
Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs will see the Patrick Surtain shadow treatment this week. Surtain has shadowed five times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, and Ja'Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, but none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards with Surtain following them. Since Week 10, Christian Watson has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 61.8 receiving yards per game, 2.49 yards per route run, and a 28.4% first-read share. In those five games, Watson has had two red zone targets and 11 deep targets. Since Week 8, Denver has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Watson has ranked second on the team with a 17.2% target share with 2.26 yards per route run (leads the team) and a 25.7% first-read share. If Surtain doesn't follow Watson, I expect him to see a bump in usage, but I lean that he'll be the one that Surtain follows. I'm worried about his outlook this week with Surtain on him. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target.
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26.
Emeka Egbuka
TB (vs . ATL)
Well, so much for the bounce back that I forecasted last week. Emeka Egbuka had nine targets that he turned into two receptions for 15 receiving yards. Since Week 7, he has had only two outings that landed him inside the top-36 for wide receiver weekly scoring (WR5, WR32). Since Week 7, he has had a 28.7% target share and a 36.4% first-read share that he has turned into only 48.1 receiving yards per game and 1.42 yards per route run. In those seven games, he has had eight red zone targets and six deep targets. Not all of Egbuka's struggles can be laid at his feet, as during this stretch, only 50% of his targets have been catchable. Much of this has been related to Baker Mayfield's struggles. Hopefully, with the Bucs at full strength in the wide receiver room this week, Egbuka can have a bounce-back game with Mayfield playing better. With the improved target competition, I do expect his market share in the offense to fall. Egbuka falls into the WR2/3 or flex territory this week. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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27.
Ladd McConkey
LAC (at KC)
Last week, Ladd McConkey led the team with a 19.2% target share, which amounted to only five targets that he turned into one reception and 12 receiving yards. The entire Bolts' passing attack has to be downgraded with the passing volume in question. This week, he'll lead the way again versus Kansas City's two-high coverage. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, McConkey has had a 24% target share with 1.19 yards per route run and a 24% first-read share (leads the team). McConkey's dip in efficiency versus two high is concerning, especially when you also consider that Kansas City has been good against slot receivers. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to the position. If you have to play him this week, I get it, but don't expect a massive stat line.
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28.
Courtland Sutton
DEN (vs . GB)
Courtland Sutton is the WR23 in fantasy points per game with an 18.5% target share, 59.5 receiving yards per game, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 23.4% first-read share. Sutton is second on the team in red zone targets (ten) and deep targets (13). Sutton is headed for a down game this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (69.5%). Against two high, Sutton's numbers have suffered with a 14% target share with 1.37 yards per route run and a 17.4% first-read share. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sutton needs a touchdown to save his fantasy day in Week 15.
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29.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WAS (at NYG)
Deebo Samuel is the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 23.1% target share, 46.8 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. He has 12 red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Samuel could also have a strong day this week against a New York secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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30.
Chris Godwin Jr.
TB (vs . ATL)
Over the last two games, Godwin has had a 70.6% route share with a 20.7% target share, 66.5 receiving yards per game, 2.77 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. In those two games, he has had two red zone targets and one deep target. Godwin was the WR33 and WR27 in weekly scoring. Godwin is a strong WR3/flex. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target and the eighth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
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31.
Brian Thomas Jr.
JAC (vs . NYJ)
Since Week 13, Brian Thomas Jr. has become the field-stretching component of the passing attack with a 21.8 aDOT, 15.5% target share, 57.5 receiving yards per game, 2.13 yards per route run, and a 22.5% first-read share. In these two games, 55.5% of his target volume has come via deep targets, while he has seen zero end zone or red zone targets. This isn't a great matchup for downfield passing. Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the 13th-lowest deep ball completion rate, the sixth-fewest deep passing yards per game, and ranked 16th in passer rating versus deep passing. Thomas Jr. is a volatile flex option. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in PPR points per target against perimeter wide receivers.
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32.
Jordan Addison
MIN (at DAL)
In Jordan Addison's five games with McCarthy under center, he hasn't finished better than WR30 in any week, with only two top-36 weekly finishes (WR30, WR31). In those five games, he has had a 17.7% target share with 33 receiving yards per game, 1.15 yards per route run, and a 24% first-read share. In that same five-game sample, he has had two red zone targets and eight deep targets. He draws another plus matchup that renders him a low-end flex again this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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33.
Khalil Shakir
BUF (at NE)
Across the last two games, Shakir has seen his route share dip to 52.4% with an 11.8% target share, 10.5 receiving yards per game, and a 16.1% first-read share. In those games, he has had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Since Week 10, New England has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Shakir has been crushed by Buffalo's insistence upon utilizing a passing game by committee approach. I can't trust him in the opening week of the fantasy playoffs.
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34.
Mike Evans
TB (vs . ATL)
Mike Evans will be back this week. I expect him to maybe be on a snap count, but to compensate for that with a high route share, as the Bucs will just limit his workload on rushing plays if they ease him in. We have no idea what to expect in terms of usage for Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka as they haven't played a game all together in 2025. In Weeks 1-3, Evans was the clear leader of the passing attack with a 27.3% target share and 35.4% first-read share, churning out 46.7 receiving yards per game with 1.56 yards per route run. In those three games, Evans had five red zone targets and six deep targets. I expect him to see plenty of high cholesterol usage this week, even in a somewhat limited role. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Evans is at minimum a strong flex with WR2 upside.
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35.
Jayden Reed
GB (at DEN)
Last week, Reed stepped back into the lineup with a 65.4% route share, a 16% target share, 31 receiving yards, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Reed didn't have a red zone or deep target. Denver hasn't been a wonderful matchup for slot receivers, but with Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs getting the Patrick Surtain shadow, Reed could be more heavily involved this week. Since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
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36.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND (at SEA)
The Colts have been highly coverage-specific with their wide receiver usage, but they have a new quarterback and face a pass defense that has flipped back and forth between single and two high this year. I'm just going to look at the Colts' receiving options with a top-down perspective this week. Pittman is the WR15 in fantasy points per game with a 21.8% target share, 53.8 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 25.4% first-read share. He ranks third on the team with ten red zone targets, and he has kicked in with seven deep targets. Pittman will struggle this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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37.
Xavier Worthy
KC (vs . LAC)
Since Rashee Rice's return, Worthy hasn't finished higher than WR28 in any week, and he has only two top 36 weekly finishes (WR28, WR33). Since Week 7, he has had a 15.3% target share, 44.4 receiving yards per game, 1.36 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had three red zone targets and seven deep targets. Sit Worthy this week. Since Week 10, the Bolts have held perimeter wide receivers to the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game.
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38.
Jayden Higgins
HOU (vs . ARI)
Since Week 10, Jayden Higgins has been the WR27 in fantasy points per game with an 18.1% target share, 46.8 receiving yards per game, 2.11 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. In those five games, he has had four red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, he faces an Arizona pass defense that has featured the fifth-highest rate of two high (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Higgins has had an 18.4% target share with 2.14 yards per route run and a 22.1% first-read share. It's nice to see that his usage and efficiency have remained stable and in line with his overall numbers. Higgins is a strong WR3/flex again this week. Since Week 10, Arizona has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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39.
Luther Burden III
CHI (vs . CLE)
Since Week 12, Luther Burden has had a 54.7% route share with a 16% target share, 48.7 receiving yards per game, 2.28 yards per route run, and a 23.6% first-read share. In those three games, he has had one red zone target and zero deep targets. Burden had weekly scoring finishes of WR36, WR44, and WR25. Burden is a middling flex play again this week. The Browns have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season.
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40.
Adonai Mitchell
NYJ (at JAC)
Last week, with Brady Cook under center, Mitchell had a 14.2 aDOT with a 17.6% target share, 24 receiving yards, and a 14.8% first-read share. I don't have much faith in Mitchell this week despite drawing a nice matchup on the perimeter. I don't trust Cook to get the ball to Mitchell consistently. If you are forced to consider Mitchell as a flex play this week, I get it, but outside of pure desperation mode, I'm not playing Mitchell this week. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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41.
Troy Franklin
DEN (vs . GB)
Last week, Troy Franklin's route share fell off the table to 39.5% and he had only a 10.5% target share. Franklin hasn't been an 80-85% route share receiver this season, but even in Week 13, when people were worried about his usage, he had a 68.8% route share, which has been pretty much his baseline this season. Franklin is off the flex radar this week after the dip in his playing time and the tough matchup this week. Since Week 12, Green Bay has utilized two high at the second-highest rate (69.5%). Against two high, Franklin's target share has only been 14.8% with 0.95 yards per route run. That's not good enough to justify blind faith and playing him this week. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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42.
Ricky Pearsall
SF (vs . TEN)
I don't know what Ricky Pearsall did to piss off Kyle Shanahan, but he has been a ghost since his return to the lineup. Since Week 11, Pearsall has had a 10.2% target share with 6.7 receiving yards per game and a 10.2% first-read share. In those three games, he has had two end zone targets and three deep targets. Pearsall is a dart throw flex only until we see his role in this offense reappear. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jennings should smash again this week.
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43.
Jerry Jeudy
CLE (at CHI)
Jerry Jeudy had his second-best game of the season last week with 76 receiving yards (one touchdown) and a WR15 finish for the week. Since Week 12, he has had a 13.6% target share with a 29.6% air-yard share, 47 receiving yards per game, 1.70 yards per route run, and an 18.2% first-read share. In those three games, Jeudy has zero red zone targets and three deep targets. Jeudy is back to low-end flex territory this week. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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44.
Keenan Allen
LAC (at KC)
Last week, Keenan Allen was third on the team with an 11.5% target share while ranking first on the team with a 23.1% first-read share. He turned that volume (three targets) into three receptions and 22 receiving yards. There's nothing pretty about this passing attack right now. This week, Allen likely fights Oronde Gadsden for the second spot in the target pecking order in a run-first offense. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, Allen has ranked second on the team with a 17.8% target share with 1.83 yards per route run and a 20% first-read share. Allen is a low-end flex this week that needs a touchdown to pay off. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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45.
Darnell Mooney
ATL (at TB)
Since Week 12, without Drake London, Darnell Mooney has only once finished higher than WR69 in weekly scoring. In those three games, Mooney has had a 14% target share with 35 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 19.6% first-read share. Since Week 12, he has had three red zone targets and two deep targets. It's been surprising how much he has struggled to command a high market share in the Atlanta passing offense with only Kyle Pitts to deal with weekly. He's a decent flex play this week with a good matchup. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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46.
Romeo Doubs
GB (at DEN)
Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs will see the Patrick Surtain shadow treatment this week. Surtain has shadowed five times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, and Ja'Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, but none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards with Surtain following them. Since Week 10, Doubs has had a 15.1% target share with 20.2 receiving yards per game with 0.96 yards per route run, and a 16% first-read share. In those five games, he has had four red zone targets and two deep targets. Since Week 8, Denver has utilized two high at the ninth-highest rate (57.1%). Since Week 10, against two high, Doubs has had a team-leading 18.8% target share with 1.73 yards per route run and a 17.1% first-read share. I lean that out of the two players, Watson is more likely to get the Surtain treatment this week. If I'm right, Doubs should see a bump in work. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the 14th-fewest PPR points per target.
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47.
Darius Slayton
NYG (vs . WAS)
Since Week 5, Darius Slayton has had a 13.9% target share with 45.3 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, a 14.5-yard average depth of target, and a 17.5% first-read share, per Fantasy Points Data. In those six games, he has had one red-zone target, eight deep targets, and three top-36 finishes in weekly scoring (WR34, WR27, WR19). Slayton is a strong flex play this week against the Commanders. His downfield role should come in handy for Jaxson Dart. Washington has allowed the third-highest completion rate and the second-highest passer rating on deep passes. Since Week 10, Washington has also allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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48.
John Metchie III
NYJ (at JAC)
Last week, with Brady Cook under center, John Metchie had a 23.5% target share, a team-leading 29.6% first-read share, and two red zone targets. Sadly, he turned that volume into only four receptions and 34 receiving yards. I can't trust Metchie as a flex play this week with Cook slinging the rock despite the plus matchup. If you're out of other flex options this week in a deep league, I get it, but there's no way you can feel warm and cozy about playing him. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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49.
DJ Moore
CHI (vs . CLE)
D.J. Moore has been an utter disappointment this season as the WR46 in fantasy points per game, with only four games this season as a top 36 wide receiver in weekly scoring. Chicago has been trying to get him more involved over the last three games, as he has had five red zone targets. Moore has a 14.4% target share with 38.3 receiving yards per game, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 17.3% first-read share. This week, he faces a Cleveland secondary that has the highest single high rate in the NFL (66.6%). Against single high, Moore has a 13.9% target share with 1.22 yards per route run and a 16.8% first-read share. Moore is a middling flex play again this week. Since Week 10, Cleveland has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers, but it'll help that Denzel Ward is out this week.
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50.
Devaughn Vele
NO (vs . CAR)
Since Week 10, with Tyler Shough under center, Vele has had a 17.6% target share with 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.35 yards per route run, and a 17.9% first-read share. In those four games, Vele has had two red zone targets and five deep targets. During that span, Vele has had one WR1 weekly finish (WR7) but sadly has been outside the top 45 wide receivers in weekly scoring in the other three games. This week, he faces a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 8, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58.5%). Since Week 10, against single high, Vele has had only a 15.1% target share with 0.89 yards per route run and an 11.1% first-read share. The market share and efficiency dips against single high drop Vele to low-end flex territory for Week 15. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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51.
Kayshon Boutte
NE (vs . BUF)
Kayshon Boutte has been a weekly flex option with a high ceiling, with five top 24 weekly finishes this season. That has been because of his downfield role and touchdown scoring prowess. Boutte has ten deep targets and six touchdowns despite only seeing two red zone targets this season. Boutte is in play again this week as a volatile but high upside flex play. Since Week 9, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest deep completion rate and the eighth-most deep passing yards per game.
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52.
Alec Pierce
IND (at SEA)
The Colts have been highly coverage-specific with their wide receiver usage, but they have a new quarterback and face a pass defense that has flipped back and forth between single and two high this year. I'm just going to look at the Colts' receiving options with a top-down perspective this week. Alec Pierce is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with six weeks as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring. Pierce has an 18.7% target share with 69.9 receiving yards per game, 2.32 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. He has only five red zone targets as his main job has been as the deep threat, with 30.3% of his target volume coming via downfield targets (18.8 aDOT). This matchup doesn't set up well for Pierce this week. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Also, they have allowed the eighth-fewest deep passing yards per game and the fifth-lowest passer rating to downfield targets.
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53.
Chimere Dike
TEN (at SF)
Since Week 7, Chimere Dike has finished inside the top-36 in weekly scoring among wide receivers four times while seeing a 15.1% target share with 36.9 receiving yards per game, 1.31 yards per route run, and a 20.6% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had six red zone targets and five deep targets. Dike is a viable flex option this week. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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54.
Rashid Shaheed
SEA (vs . IND)
Rashid Shaheed is a dart throw flex with a good matchup. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 11, against single high, Shaheed has had only an 11.5% target share with 1.0 yards per route run and a 10.8% first-read share, but the matchup on the perimeter is nice for him. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. I wouldn't be surprised if Shaheed pops out of the woodwork with a solid game this week.
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55.
Jalen Coker
CAR (at NO)
Jalen Coker is on the deep league flex radar again this week. Since Week 6, the Saints' secondary has had the third-highest single high rate (60.3%). Since Week 10, against single high, Coker has had an 18.2% target share with 2.52 yards per route run and a 28.2% first-read share. Those are strong numbers, no matter how you slice it. The worries for Coker are Bryce Young's uneven play and the improvement in the Saints' pass defense. Since Week 10, the Saints have held slot receivers to the sixth-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-lowest passer rating when targeted.
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56.
Cooper Kupp
SEA (vs . IND)
Cooper Kupp is a flex option best left on the bench this week. Since Week 10, Indy has utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (60%). Since Week 11, against single high, Kupp has had an 18% target share with 1.10 yards per route run and an 18.9% first read share. The market share against single high is encouraging, but the efficiency against the coverage type and the corner matchup isn't. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the second-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers. Kenny Moore has been playing good football. Sit Kupp.
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57.
Tre Tucker
LV (at PHI)
Since Week 10, without Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker has had a 17.3% target share with 29.4 receiving yards per game, 0.78 yards per route run, and a 21.9% first-read share. In those five games, Tucker has had three red zone targets and nine deep targets. Tucker is a flex option best left on the bench. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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58.
Andrei Iosivas
CIN (vs . BAL)
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59.
Elic Ayomanor
TEN (at SF)
Elic Ayomanor has finished as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring since Week 3. He hasn't surpassed 15 receiving yards in a game since Week 9. It has been a tough season for Ayomanor after a promising start out of the gate. He has a 16.1% target share with 29.4 receiving yards per game, 1.01 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. He's second on the team with six red zone targets and leads the squad with ten deep targets. Ayomanor is a deep league desperation flex only. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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60.
Malik Washington
MIA (at PIT)
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61.
Mack Hollins
NE (vs . BUF)
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62.
Mitch Tinsley
CIN (vs . BAL)
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63.
Xavier Legette
CAR (at NO)
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64.
Josh Downs
IND (at SEA)
The Colts have been highly coverage-specific with their wide receiver usage, but they have a new quarterback and face a pass defense that has flipped back and forth between single and two high this year. I'm just going to look at the Colts' receiving options with a top-down perspective this week. Downs is the WR53 in fantasy points per game with four top 36 weekly wide receiver finishes this season. Downs has a 16.1% target share with 32.8 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and an 18.5% first-read share. He leads the team with 12 red zone targets while also seeing five deep targets. Riley Leonard could lean on Tyler Warren and Josh Downs heavily this week, considering the defensive matchups. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and the 15th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.
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65.
Ryan Flournoy
DAL (vs . MIN)
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66.
Keon Coleman
BUF (at NE)
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67.
David Sills V
ATL (at TB)
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68.
Christian Kirk
HOU (vs . ARI)
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69.
Isaac TeSlaa
DET (at LAR)
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70.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN (vs . GB)
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71.
Jack Bech
LV (at PHI)
Last week, Jack Bech finally got involved in the Raiders' offense with a 76.3% route share, a team-leading 18.8% target share, 50 receiving yards (led the team), 1.72 yards per route run, and a 23.5% first-read share. Bech had two red zone targets. He isn't a sexy flex option, but in deeper leagues, you could do a lot worse. Since Week 10, Philly has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Bech could see heavy volume this week if the Raiders are in comeback mode for most of the game.
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72.
Olamide Zaccheaus
CHI (vs . CLE)
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73.
Parker Washington
JAC (vs . NYJ)
Parker Washington missed last week's game with a hip injury. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday. He has been listed as questionable and could be back in uniform this week. In Weeks 11-12, with Jakobi Meyers playing a full-time role for Jacksonville, Washington finished as the WR66 and WR12 in weekly scoring, drawing a 17.3% target share with 45.5 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. I expect Washington to move into a full-time slot role this week with Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers operating on the perimeter. In those two games, Washington had two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Washington is only a deep league flex play this week. Since Week 10, New York has held slot receivers to the third-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-lowest passer rating when targeted.
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74.
Isaiah Hodgins
NYG (vs . WAS)
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75.
Calvin Austin III
PIT (vs . MIA)
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76.
DeAndre Hopkins
BAL (at CIN)
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77.
DeMario Douglas
NE (vs . BUF)
|
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78.
Van Jefferson
TEN (at SF)
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79.
Tre Harris
LAC (at KC)
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80.
Noah Brown
WAS (at NYG)
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81.
Jalen Nailor
MIN (at DAL)
|
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82.
Tim Patrick
JAC (vs . NYJ)
|
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83.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL (vs . MIN)
|
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84.
Tyquan Thornton
KC (vs . LAC)
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85.
Jaylin Noel
HOU (vs . ARI)
|
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86.
Tyler Lockett
LV (at PHI)
|
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87.
Mason Tipton
NO (vs . CAR)
|
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88.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU (vs . ARI)
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89.
Isaiah Bond
CLE (at CHI)
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90.
Dylan Drummond
ATL (at TB)
|
|
91.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB (at DEN)
|
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92.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
KC (vs . LAC)
|
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93.
Andre Baccellia
ARI (at HOU)
|
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94.
Cedric Tillman
CLE (at CHI)
|
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95.
Adam Thielen
PIT (vs . MIA)
|
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96.
Brandin Cooks
BUF (at NE)
|
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97.
Kyle Williams
NE (vs . BUF)
|
|
98.
Isaiah Williams
NYJ (at JAC)
|
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99.
Matthew Golden
GB (at DEN)
|
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100.
Tez Johnson
TB (vs . ATL)
|
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101.
Treylon Burks
WAS (at NYG)
|
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102.
Jahan Dotson
PHI (vs . LV)
|
|
103.
Rome Odunze
CHI (vs . CLE)
|
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104.
Joshua Palmer
BUF (at NE)
|
|
105.
Tyrell Shavers
BUF (at NE)
|
|
106.
Jalen McMillan
TB (vs . ATL)
|
|
107.
Sterling Shepard
TB (vs . ATL)
|
|
108.
Jalen Brooks
ARI (at HOU)
|
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109.
Demarcus Robinson
SF (vs . TEN)
|
|
110.
Gage Larvadain
CLE (at CHI)
|
|
111.
Kendrick Bourne
SF (vs . TEN)
|
|
112.
Xavier Smith
LAR (vs . DET)
|
|
113.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
PIT (vs . MIA)
|
|
114.
Kalif Raymond
DET (at LAR)
|
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115.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DEN (vs . GB)
|
|
116.
Tutu Atwell
LAR (vs . DET)
|
|
117.
Devontez Walker
BAL (at CIN)
|
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118.
Konata Mumpfield
LAR (vs . DET)
|
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119.
Tylan Wallace
BAL (at CIN)
|
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120.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
MIA (at PIT)
|
|
121.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
LV (at PHI)
|
|
122.
Jaylin Lane
WAS (at NYG)
|
|
123.
Jordan Whittington
LAR (vs . DET)
|
|
124.
Malachi Corley
CLE (at CHI)
|
|
125.
Bo Melton
GB (at DEN)
|
|
126.
James Proche II
TEN (at SF)
|
|
127.
Allen Lazard
NYJ (at JAC)
|
|
128.
Jimmy Horn Jr.
CAR (at NO)
|
|
129.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
MIA (at PIT)
|
|
130.
Deven Thompkins
ATL (at TB)
|
|
131.
Dyami Brown
JAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
132.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
ARI (at HOU)
|
|
133.
Shedrick Jackson
LV (at PHI)
|
|
134.
Darius Cooper
PHI (vs . LV)
|
|
135.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
LAC (at KC)
|
|
136.
Ben Skowronek
PIT (vs . MIA)
|
|
137.
Cody White
SEA (vs . IND)
|
|
138.
Devin Duvernay
CHI (vs . CLE)
|
|
139.
Velus Jones Jr.
SEA (vs . IND)
|
|
140.
Charlie Jones
CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
141.
Tom Kennedy
DET (at LAR)
|
|
142.
Brycen Tremayne
CAR (at NO)
|
|
143.
Arian Smith
NYJ (at JAC)
|
|
144.
Jonathan Mingo
DAL (vs . MIN)
|
|
145.
Mason Kinsey
TEN (at SF)
|
|
146.
Laquon Treadwell
IND (at SEA)
|
|
147.
LaJohntay Wester
BAL (at CIN)
|
|
148.
Kaden Davis
CLE (at CHI)
|
|
149.
Tai Felton
MIN (at DAL)
|
|
150.
Dante Pettis
NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
151.
Chris Blair
ATL (at TB)
|
|
152.
Skyy Moore
SF (vs . TEN)
|
|
153.
KhaDarel Hodge
ATL (at TB)
|
|
154.
Jamari Thrash
FA (BYE)
|
|
155.
Kevin Austin Jr.
NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
156.
Jake Bobo
SEA (vs . IND)
|
|
157.
Jalen Royals
KC (vs . LAC)
|
|
158.
Scotty Miller
PIT (vs . MIA)
|
|
159.
Austin Trammell
JAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
160.
Jalin Hyatt
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
161.
Dalen Cambre
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
162.
Dee Eskridge
MIA (at PIT)
|
|
163.
Britain Covey
PHI (vs . LV)
|
|
164.
Nikko Remigio
KC (vs . LAC)
|
|
165.
Kameron Johnson
TB (vs . ATL)
|
|
166.
Xavier Restrepo
TEN (at SF)
|
|
167.
Roman Wilson
PIT (vs . MIA)
|
|
168.
Michael Bandy
DEN (vs . GB)
|
|
169.
Coleman Owen
IND (at SEA)
|
|
170.
Tejhaun Palmer
ARI (at HOU)
|
|
171.
Xavier Gipson
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
172.
Myles Price
MIN (at DAL)
|
|
173.
Elijah Moore
DEN (vs . GB)
|
|
174.
Sederrick Cunningham
FA (BYE)
|
|
175.
Dareke Young
SEA (vs . IND)
|
|
176.
Ke'Shawn Williams
PIT (vs . MIA)
|
|
177.
Tahj Washington
MIA (at PIT)
|
|
178.
Ashton Dulin
IND (at SEA)
|
|
179.
Chris Moore
WAS (at NYG)
|
|
180.
DJ Turner
LV (at PHI)
|
|
181.
Will Sheppard
GB (at DEN)
|
|
182.
Jermaine Burton
FA (BYE)
|
|
183.
Bryce Oliver
TEN (at SF)
|
|
184.
Curtis Samuel
BUF (at NE)
|
|
185.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
BUF (at NE)
|
|
186.
Calvin Ridley
TEN (at SF)
|
|
187.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
FA (BYE)
|
|
188.
Tim Jones
JAC (vs . NYJ)
|
|
189.
Beaux Collins
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
190.
Garrett Wilson
NYJ (at JAC)
|
|
191.
Tory Horton
SEA (vs . IND)
|
|
192.
Luke McCaffrey
WAS (at NYG)
|
|
193.
Malik Turner
SF (vs . TEN)
|
|
194.
Josh Reynolds
NYJ (at JAC)
|
|
195.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
196.
Russell Gage Jr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
197.
DeAndre Carter
CLE (at CHI)
|
|
198.
David Moore
CAR (at NO)
|
|
199.
Jason Brownlee
KC (vs . LAC)
|
|
200.
Justin Watson
HOU (vs . ARI)
|
|
201.
Ainias Smith
CAR (at NO)
|
|
202.
Lucky Jackson
FA (BYE)
|
|
203.
Trey Palmer
NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
204.
Roc Taylor
FA (BYE)
|
|
205.
Brandon Powell
FA (BYE)
|
|
206.
Daurice Fountain
FA (BYE)
|
|
207.
Jackson Meeks
DET (at LAR)
|
|
208.
Nelson Agholor
FA (BYE)
|
|
209.
Trenton Irwin
NYJ (at JAC)
|
|
210.
Tank Dell
HOU (vs . ARI)
|
|
211.
Tru Edwards
LAR (vs . DET)
|
|
212.
Jalen Reagor
FA (BYE)
|
|
213.
Brandon Aiyuk
SF (vs . TEN)
|
|
214.
Jalen Guyton
FA (BYE)
|
|
215.
Quez Watkins
PHI (vs . LV)
|
|
216.
Equanimeous St. Brown
FA (BYE)
|
|
217.
Michael Gallup
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
218.
Tyler Davis
FA (BYE)
|
|
219.
Malik Taylor
FA (BYE)
|
|
220.
Javon Baker
SF (vs . TEN)
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