Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 1 Half PPR Rankings
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1.
Tyreek Hill
MIA (vs . JAC)
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2.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET (vs . LAR)
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3.
Justin Jefferson
MIN (at NYG)
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4.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL (at CLE)
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5.
A.J. Brown
PHI (vs . GB)
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6.
Mike Evans
TB (vs . WAS)
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7.
Garrett Wilson
NYJ (at SF)
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8.
Puka Nacua
LAR (at DET)
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9.
Cooper Kupp
LAR (at DET)
Which version of Kupp do we get this year? That has been a heated offseason debate. Did he clearly take a step back, or did injuries nag at him all year, affecting his performance? Last year, he dealt with an ankle sprain and hamstring issues. In 12 games with him and Puka Nacua active, Kupp still commanded a 23.4% target share, produced 2.08 yards per route run, and was the WR23 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Detroit utilized single-high on 54.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Kupp led the team with a 27.4% target share and a 33.3% first-read share. He was second to only Puka Nacua in YPRR (2.47) and FD/RR (0.107). Kupp will run about 61% of his routes against Amik Robertson (62.5% catch rate and 85.7 passer rating). Kupp could lead the way for the passing attack in Week 1.
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10.
Davante Adams
NYJ (at SF)
Adams remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but pitiful quarterback play hurt him last year, and it's not looking any prettier for 2024. Last year was the first season since 2015 that Davante Adams didn't finish as a WR1 in fantasy. Adams checked in as the WR15 in fantasy. Adams had no issue soaking up elite-level volume, ranking second in raw target volume (175) and target share (33.1%). He did the best he could, considering the situation surrounding him, ranking 26th in yards per route run and 17th in first downs per route run. Adams will run most of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (64.7% catch rate and 98.0 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (72.5% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating).
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11.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN (vs . NE)
Chase's availability and snapshare are up in the air for Week 1. I do think it's pretty easy regarding Chase, though. If he is active he is in your lineup. Chase has the talent to blow up even with limited snaps. Cincinnati could also easily limit his snaps by cutting back his snaps on run plays, and it wouldn't hurt his pass game availability, which is all we care about for fantasy purposes. Last year, when Joe Burrow was healthy (Weeks 5-10), Chase was awesome. He had a 28.4% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, and a 34.5% first-read share. During that small sample, he produced a mouthwatering 2.69 YPRR and 0.145 FD/RR. Last year, New England was seventh in single high rate (59.7%). The last time we got a full season of Chase and Burrow ripping the league up (2022), Chase was a monster against single-high. Among 88 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked fourth in target share (32.3%), fifth in air-yard share (442.%), seventh in YPRR (3.12), and third in FD/RR (0.159). Chase will match up with Christian Gonzalez (66.7% catch rate and 67.5 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (57.4% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) all day. With Higgins being listed as doubtful, Chase could be leaned on heavily when he's on the field, even if his snaps are limited.
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12.
Nico Collins
HOU (at IND)
Collins was nothing short of amazing last season as the WR7 in fantasy. He was basically Brandon Aiyuk of the AFC South, as he operated with an insane per-route efficiency. He was 12th in TPRR, second in YPRR, seventh in receiving yards per game, and fifth in FD/RR. When the offense was battered, and other skill players were out with injuries, he was able to command alpha-level volume. Collins could have a boom game out the gate for Houston, considering Indy's love for single-high last year. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Among Houston's starting trio of wide receivers, against single-high, Collins led the group in TPRR (31%), YPRR (3.83), and FD/RR (0.175). It wasn't particularly close in YPRR and FD/RR either. Collins will run about 79% of his routes against JuJu Brents (66.7% catch rate and 109.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating).
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13.
Chris Olave
NO (vs . CAR)
Olave might not have matched the hype last year with his production, but that doesn't mean that he had a bad season. Olave was the WR19 with new career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game. Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, Olave ranked 24th in YPRR and 16th in FD/RR. The change in the offensive system will help Olave and Carr this season. Carr last year was tied to two outcomes. It was either wind up and chuck it deep or check it down, as Carr ranked eighth in deep attempts while also having the sixth-highest check-down rate. In Weeks 1-12, New Orleans had the fifth-highest aDOT while ranking 14th in catchable target rate with the 16th-highest off-target rate. In Weeks 13-18, the Saints changed it up as their aDOT was the 11th-lowest, and the offense ranked first in catchable target rate with the lowest off-target rate. Motion, play-action, and more intermediate passing will help Olave this season with Klint Kubiak. Last year Carolina utilized single-high at the third-highest rate (63.3%). Among 85 qualifying wide receivers last year against single high, Olave ranked 10th in YPRR, 12th in fantasy points per route run, and seventh in FD/RR. Olave with line up against Jaycee Horn (60.7% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating) and Mike Jackson (68.8% catch rate and 93.5 passer rating) for most of the game.
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14.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA (vs . JAC)
Waddle had the worst season of his short career last year, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy. Waddle ranked fifth in yards per route run and sixth in first downs per route run last season, with a 22% target share and a 29.7% air-yard share. With Jacksonville's new defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, I expect this secondary to lean into two-high coverage. Last year, he led a Falcon's defense that was ninth in two high usage (53.2%). Last season, in the 12 games Waddle played at least 54% of the snaps, he saw a 23.6% target share, a 31.5% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share, producing 2.90 YPRR against two high. Waddle will run about 74% of his routes against Ronald Darby (51.7% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating) and Tyson Campbell (70% catch rate and 127.4 passer rating).
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15.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARI (at BUF)
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16.
Drake London
ATL (vs . PIT)
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17.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
SF (vs . NYJ)
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18.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND (vs . HOU)
Pittman has been the model of consistency as a WR2 over the last three seasons (WR14, WR21, WR22). Despite catching passes from Gardner Minshew for most of the year, Pittman finished with his usual efficiency ranking 23rd in YPRR and 24th in FD/RR while gobbling up the volume (ninth in targets, fourth in target share). Despite ranking ninth in red zone targets, he only had four receiving touchdowns last year. Pittman faces a Houston secondary that should again feature heavy two-high coverage in 2024. Last year, the Texans ranked fourth in two-high usage (56.6%). Against two-high last year, Pittman had a 26.2% target share, a 32.1% air-yard share, 2.23 YPRR, and 0.114 FD/RR. Pittman will run about 72% of his routes against Derek Stingley Jr. (54.2% catch rate and 76.6 passer rating) and rookie Kamari Lassiter.
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19.
DK Metcalf
SEA (vs . DEN)
Metcalf has proven at this point that his floor is as a safe WR2. Last year, he finished another successful campaign as the WR22 in fantasy. He was 22nd in YPRR, 23rd in first read share, and 20th in FD/RR last season. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Metcalf ate last year against single-high with a 26.1% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, 2.71 YPRR, and 12 end zone targets. We don't know if Ryan Grubb will deploy Seattle's wide receivers in a similar fashion, but Metcalf has a compelling case to keep his number-one role against single-high. Metcalf could be shadowed by Patrick Surtain (62.9% catch rate and 93.9 passer rating) in this game. Surtain followed eight receivers last year on at least 63% of their routes, with only Tyreek Hill and D.J. Moore surpassing 70 receiving yards in his primary coverage. If Metcalf isn't shadowed, he'll see Surtain and Riley Moss (only one target defended last year) for most of the game.
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20.
Malik Nabers
NYG (vs . MIN)
We can all debate the target quality that Nabers will receive this season, but we can all agree that he is about TO GET FED on a weekly basis. We got a small snippet of it this preseason, as he had a 24% TPRR and 2.16 YPRR. I'm worried about Daniel Jones just as much as anyone else, but let's be kind and rewind and remind ourselves of the type of talent that Nabers has. During his final year at LSU, Nabers ranked third in YPRR, first in PFF receiving grade, and fourth in missed tackles forced. Nabers will have his hands full with Minnesota's upgraded outside corner tandem, though. He'll see Stephon Gilmore (56.8% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (63.8% catch rate and 82.5 passer rating) for most of the game.
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21.
Rashee Rice
KC (vs . BAL)
Rice looks to pick up where he left off last season. In Weeks 12-17, after assuming a full-time role, he gobbled up a 25.2% target share with a 30.3% first-read share, producing 2.77 yards per route run and 18.6 fantasy points per game. This preseason, his rapport with Patrick Mahomes remained strong, with a 35.2% target per route run rate and 2.06 yards per route run. Rice should be featured heavily in this opening game against the Ravens' two-high defense. In 2023, Baltimore deployed two-high on 53.3% (eighth-highest) of their defensive snaps. Yes, they switched from Mike Macdonald to Zach Orr as defensive coordinator, but Orr has been a long-time Baltimore defensive coach (linebackers). I expect him to integrate his wrinkles into the scheme, but I'm projecting them to still use two-high coverage with more than 50% of their defensive snaps. After Week 11 last season, Rice led the team with a 21.4% target share, 2.78 yards per route run, and a 28.6% first-read share (tied with Travis Kelce) against two-high. If Mahomes isn't looking for Kelce when he drops back, it'll be Rice.
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22.
DJ Moore
CHI (vs . TEN)
New year. New quarterback. New wide receivers are flanking Moore. Tons of change for the Chicago passing attack this offseason, but Moore should still be considered the favorite to lead the way for Windy City's aerial attack. Last season, he was the WR9 in fantasy points per game while setting new career highs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. He also shined on a per-route basis, ranking 13th in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Moore faces a pass defense with new coordinator Dennard Wilson calling the shots. Last year, Wilson was with Baltimore as their defensive backs' coach. Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Last year against two high, Moore had a 24.6% target share, a 46% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 38% first-read share. With the additions of Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, those market share numbers will undoubtedly come back down to earth some. His YPRR mark against two-high was ranked 34th out of 97 qualifying wide receivers last year, so he was good but not elite. Moore will run about 78% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L'Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).
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23.
DeVonta Smith
PHI (vs . GB)
Smith finished last year as the WR20 in fantasy points per game while commanding a 20.9% target share, a 31.8% air-yard share, and a 25.6% first-read share. He posted a strong 1.96 yards per route run while ranking 21st in receiving yards per game. Smith will be Brown's running mate again this year as the Eagles' WR2. He faces a Green Bay pass defense that could look different this year, with new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley taking over. Last year the Packers had the fifth-most single-high coverage in the NFL. Hafley could change that in 2024. During his last stint in the NFL, Hafley was with Robert Saleh in San Francisco for two years. Saleh led a Jets' pass defense last year that had the 11th-highest two-high rate in the league (51.6%). Last season, Smith led the team with a 23% target share, a 40.6% air-yard share, and 2.45 yards per route run against two-high. Don't be surprised if Smith out-targets Brown in Week 1.
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24.
Amari Cooper
BUF (vs . ARI)
Cooper didn't show any signs of slowing down last year. Last year, he finished as the WR17 in fantasy points per game while ranking 23rd in target share (22.1%), 13th in air-yard share (39%), and 12th in YPRR. Watson, looking like a hollowed-out version of his former self, didn't stop Cooper either, as he averaged 96 receiving yards per game with 2.96 YPRR and 0.123 FD/RR. Cooper faces a secondary that allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers last year. Those numbers don't instill a lot of confidence, but with DaRon Bland out for a while, Cooper will face Trevon Diggs (recovering from a torn ACL) and rookie Caelen Carson for most of the game. The corner matchup isn't the limiting factor here. It's the quarterback play of Watson. The hope is that Cooper remains quarterback-proof in 2024.
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25.
Terry McLaurin
WAS (at TB)
McLaurin is set to bounce back this year if Daniels is the passer that I think he is. Last year, he finished as the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but his WR21 rank in expected fantasy points per game is closer to what I hope we get in 2024. Last season, he still led the team with a 20.4% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Sam Howell was a crushing blow of inefficiency, though ranking 21st in CPOE and 25th in clean pocket passer rating. If Daniels has time in the pocket in Week 1, McLaurin should have a boom game. Last year, Tampa Bay utilized single-high on 53.4% of their defensive snaps. Last year, against single-high, McLaurin had 1.96 YPRR and a 25.8% first-read share. McLaurin will line up against Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) for most of the day. Last season, the Bucs allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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26.
Brandon Aiyuk
SF (vs . NYJ)
The ink barely dried on Aiyuk's contract as he made it back just in time for Week 1. Aiyuk was amazing last year as the WR16 in fantasy, ranking third in YPRR and second in FD/RR. His talent and efficiency allowed him to outkick his volume constraints. Aiyuk ranked 30th in raw target volume with an astounding 105 targets. He was also only 44th in red zone targets and was the WR31 in expected fantasy points per game. It didn't matter though. As good as he is, this doesn't set up as an Aiyuk smash week. The Jets ranked 11th in two high usage last year (51.7%). Two high defenses usually mean a heaping dose of Deebo Samuel. Last year against two-high, Aiyuk had an 18% target share, a 35.3% air-yard share, 2.58 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Aiyuk will still be involved, but this isn't a game where he'll be leading the way. Aiyuk will run about 75% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (56.9% catch rate and 76.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (61.4% catch rate and 85.1 passer rating).
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27.
Stefon Diggs
HOU (at IND)
How good will Diggs be in Houston? Another year older. Now, he is competing with two amazing young wide receivers for volume. Can he keep up? We're about to get these questions answered. His falloff in the second half of the last two seasons can't be ignored at this point. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Diggs finished as the WR45 or higher in weekly scoring only twice. During that stretch, he only had one game with more than 80 receiving yards while finishing as the WR52 in fantasy points per game. Ok, let's get to this Week 1 matchup with the Colts. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Diggs had a 30% TPRR, 2.16 YPRR, and 0.103 FD/RR. In those three categories versus Collins and Dell, Diggs ranks second, third, and third. While he might post a solid stat line in Week 1 because all of those marks are still quite strong, it could be Collins and Dell leading the way. Diggs will see JuJu Brents (66.7% catch rate and 109.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating) in coverage most of the game.
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28.
Chris Godwin
TB (vs . WAS)
Godwin stumbled out of the gate last year, which led to his WR34 finish in fantasy points per game, but I think we need to focus more on how he ended the season. After Week 13, he turned up the heat, closing the season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 28.7% target share, 83.6 receiving yards per game, 2.79 yards per route run, and 0.133 first downs per route run. That scorching hot conclusion to last year also coincided with his move back to the slot more (36.1% vs. 44%). Godwin should be the team's starting slot this year, which will benefit him. Dan Quinn likely utilizes single-high at a high rate this year after encompassing 64.9% and 57.1% of his defensive snaps over the last two years with Dallas. Last year in Weeks 14-18, against single high, Godwin led the team with 2.45 YPRR and 0.125 FD/RR and was second behind only Mike Evans in target share (19.1%) and first-read share (21.1%). Godwin will match up with rookie Mike Sainristill for most of Week 1. The floor and ceiling are high for Godwin to open this season.
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29.
George Pickens
PIT (at ATL)
Pickens should lead the way for Pittsburgh's aerial attack this season. We got a small snippet of what that might look like last year when Dionate Johnson missed time with an injury. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, he produced 3.0 yards per route run, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, he saw three end zone targets and had a ridiculous 38.4% first-read share. Those market share numbers could all be repeated in 2024. We'll see about the efficiency numbers that Pittsburgh's quarterback play could vastly impact. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons' defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pickens had a 21.5% target share, 2.87 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. All of these are stellar marks. Pickens will run about 83% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (57.9% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (61.9% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating).
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30.
Tank Dell
HOU (at IND)
Dell was amazing last year and impactful once inserted into the starting lineup full-time. Last year, in the seven full games that Dell and Nico Collins played together, Dell bested him in every meaningful category. Dell led the duo in target share (22.5 vs. 22.1%), air-yard share (35.9 vs. 25.3%), weighted opportunity (59.0 vs. 50.9), and fantasy points per game (18.7 vs. 18.1). Overall last year Dell posted monster numbers in YPRR (2.40) and FD/RR (0.115) ranking 16th and 14th in these statistics. He should push Collins for the team lead in targets in Week 1 against Indy. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Dell had a 29% TPRR, 2.70 YPRR, and 0.122 FD/RR. Among Houston's starting wide receivers, he ranks third, second, and second in those categories. The biggest worry for Dell in this matchup is his matchup with Kenny Moore (79.3% catch rate and 98.3 passer rating) inside, as Dell projects as the team's starting slot receiver now with Diggs in town. Last year, Indy allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. It's a tough matchup, but it also has to be stated that Dell has the talent to overcome it.
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31.
Zay Flowers
BAL (at KC)
There will be plenty of matchups to be bullish regarding Flowers' outlook, but this isn't one of them. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Flowers scorched single-high last season, but his numbers against two-high were pedestrian. Against this coverage type, he only garnered a 19.6% target share and a 20.2% air-yard share while producing 1.12 yards per route run with Mark Andrews in the lineup. Look for Andrews to lead the way this week as he dominates two-high matchups for Baltimore. Flowers will run about 69% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating). It's also possible Flowers draws shadow coverage from McDuffie.
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32.
Christian Kirk
JAC (at MIA)
Kirk was on his way to a wonderful season last year before injury crushed it. In Weeks 2-12, Krik was the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.6% target share and 30.5% air-yard share, producing 2.31 YPRR and 0.101 FD/RR. He has a chance to pick up right where he left off in Week 1. If Lawrence rips the Fins secondary to shreds, Kirk should be a big part of the plan. Last year, in Weeks 1-12, on play-action passes, Kirk tied for the team lead with a 19.6% target share and was second in first-read share (21.8%). Miami was also torn to pieces by slot receivers, giving up the seventh-most receptions and the seventh-highest PPR points per target. Kirk should run circles around Kader Kohou (83.5% catch rate and 132.9 passer rating).
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33.
Diontae Johnson
BAL (at KC)
Johnson should be the Panthers' clear WR1 this season. Last year, once he returned from injury in Week 7, he continued to gobble up targets like usual, ranking 14th in target share (23.7%), sixth in air-yard share (41.6%), and 20th in FD/RR (0.109). In that span, he was the WR33 in fantasy points per game. Last year, New Orleans utilized single-high on 53.9% of their defensive snaps. Among 85 qualifying receivers last season, Johnson ranked 19th in TPRR and 21st in YPRR against single-high. Johnson should line up across from Marshon Lattimore (58.7% catch rate and 77.9 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (56.8% catch rate and 69.9 passer rating) for most of the game. Johnson is a volume-based WR3.
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34.
Calvin Ridley
TEN (at CHI)
We can't dance around this fact. Ridley was a disappointment last year in Fantasy Football, but hey, it's a new season and a chance for Ridley to reenter Fantasy GMs' good graces. He was the WR27 in fantasy points per game while also ranking as the WR14 in expected fantasy points per game. His market share numbers were passable (21.6% target share, 38% air-yard share), but his per-route efficiency was horrendous. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he was 44th in yards per route run and 42nd in first downs per route run. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it's tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Ridley had a 25% target per route run rate (TPRR), 2.20 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.100 first downs per route run (FD/RR). Ridley will see Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.
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35.
Keenan Allen
CHI (vs . TEN)
Allen enters a new offensive system while attempting to build rapport with his rookie quarterback. He could become a trusted weapon for Caleb Williams immediately. Last year, he was WR3 in fantasy points per game, second in target share (30.7%), and 11th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. The target share will come down. The question is how much in 2024. Allen could lead the way against Tennessee in Week 1, as his numbers last year remained stellar against two-high. New defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson was the defensive backs coach for Baltimore last year. Last season, Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Allen, against two high last season, had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.48 YPRR (10th-best), and 0.109 FD/RR (17th-best). Allen could out-target Moore in Week 1. Allen is dealing with a heel issue. He practiced in full on Friday, but he has been listed as questionable.
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36.
Jayden Reed
GB (at PHI)
Reed had a wonderful rookie campaign, finishing with ten total touchdowns (fifth-most) and being the WR26 in fantasy points per game. He saw a 17.6% target share with only a 69.6% route participation as the Packers utilize a healthy dose of 12 and 21 personnel, thus limiting his weekly snap rate as the team's starting slot receiver. He did rank 21st in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets while also receiving a smattering of rushing work. The Eagles defense will likely deploy heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 usage this year after Vic Fangio dialed it up on 59.7% of the Dolphins' defensive snaps last year. Last season, in Weeks 5-13, against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Reed only saw a 9.3% target share and 11% first-read share and produced 1.55 yards per route run. While all of those numbers are concerning, it does help Reed's case that the Eagles were ripped to shreds by slot receivers last season, allowing the most receptions, the 13th-highest PPR points per target, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. I'm skeptical of those numbers repeating in 2024 with the team shoring up nickel this offseason, with the team drafting Cooper DeJean while also bringing back C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
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37.
Christian Watson
GB (at PHI)
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38.
Xavier Worthy
KC (vs . BAL)
With Hollywood Brown sidelined Worthy should be a full-time player immediately in Week 1. When he was on the field in the preseason, the Chiefs looked to get him involved immediately as he logged a 31.5% target per route run rate while producing 3.26 yards per route run. Worthy could immediately explode in his first NFL game, but he has a tough task in front of him. Last year, Baltimore allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. They were also particularly stingy to deep passing. Worthy had a 17.0 aDOT in the preseason, but it was such a small sample that we can't rush to pigeonhole him into just a field stretching role in this offense. If that is his role to start the season, though, he could find tough sledding this week against a defense that allowed the second-lowest adjusted completion rate and passer rating to deep passing. Worthy lined up in the slot on 52.6% of his preseason routes. If that holds, he will see Kyle Hamilton for most of the day (last year, he allowed only a 55.7% catch rate and 59.5 passer rating in slot coverage).
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39.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA (vs . DEN)
My disdain for Shane Waldron's usage of Smith-Njigba last year has been well-documented. No big deal. All he did was take a baller, a first-round pick, and turn him into Malachi Corley. He neutered him into a low aDOT screen merchant. Smith-Njigba was seventh in screen targets last season, with 52.3% of his target volume coming via screens. This is not the way. Ryan Grubb will change this. In the small sample, we got with Smith-Njigba as a perimeter wide receiver, he was very good. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers last season, when he was running routes on the perimeter, Smith-Njigba ranked 15th in YPRR and fourth in TPRR. Among 61 qualifying receivers with at least 40 perimeter targets, he also ranked 14th in FD/RR. Smith-Njigba did run 89.5% of his routes in the preseason from the slot, so I do still project him to be the team's slot with more perimeter time this season possible. Smith-Njigba could be leaned on this week if Metcalf draws shadow coverage from Surtain. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Last year against single-high, when Smith-Njigba was aligned outside against single-high, he posted a 28% TPRR and 1.97 YPRR, so there is some proof in the pudding that he can excel against single-high. Smith-Njigba should run circles around Ja'Quan McMillian (61.2% catch rate and 109.4 passer rating) from the slot in Week 1.
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40.
Courtland Sutton
DEN (at SEA)
Sutton will be the clear WR1 for the Broncos passing offense this year. Last year, he was the WR38 in fantasy points per game, which was largely fueled by touchdowns. Sutton had the 12th-most red zone targets, which he turned into the 10th-most total touchdowns among receivers. Outside of touchdowns, though, Sutton was very pedestrian. He was 39th in target share, 37th in yards per route run, 44th in receiving yards per game, and 38th in first downs per route run. With Mike Macdonald calling the defensive shots this season, I expect Seattle to move towards more two-high this season. Seattle, over the last two seasons, has featured this coverage with 44.4-44.7% of their defensive snaps. Baltimore utilized two high on 53.4% of their snaps last year (eighth-highest). The year prior, that mark was 50.2% for Baltimore. Last year, Sutton's numbers weren't great against two high with a 19% TPRR, 1.57 YPRR, and only 0.072 FD/RR. Sit Sutton if you can in Week 1. He'll see Tre Brown (63.8% catch rate and 94.1 passer rating) and Riq Woolen (62.1% catch rate and 81.1 passer rating) for most of the day.
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41.
Joshua Palmer
LAC (vs . LV)
Palmer took his game to another level last year with Mike Williams out. In those contests, he garnered an 18.9% target share with a 31.4% air-yard share, producing 2.19 yards per route run and 71.1 receiving yards per game. It's not inconceivable that he is the Chargers WR1 this season with his rapport with Herbert. Last year, after Antonio Pierce took over as the Raiders head coach, they deployed single high coverage on 55.4% of their snaps. Against single-high last year, Palmer had a 21% TPRR, 2.22 YPRR, and 0.083 FD/RR. He should lead the way through the air against Las Vegas. Palmer will tangle with Jack Jones (60.6% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating) and Jakorian Bennett (65.6% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating) all day. Palmer is a strong flex play for Week 1.
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42.
DeAndre Hopkins
KC (vs . BAL)
Hopkins is dealing with a knee injury, but he's expected to play in Week 1, according to the latest reports I've read. He practiced on a limited basis all week and has been listed as questionable. Last year, he was the WR29 in fantasy points per game. With Will Levis under center last year (Weeks 8-15), he saw a 26.9% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, and produced 2.40 yards per route run as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Those market share numbers will drop some with Calvin Ridley in town. Hopkins was the only main show in town last season. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it's tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4 with Levis under center, Hopkins had a 29.8% target share, 3.0 YPRR, a 37.6% first-read share, and 0.102 FD/RR. Hopkins will run about 79% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating)
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43.
Rome Odunze
CHI (vs . TEN)
There should be no worries AT ALL about Odunze's talent, but he could get squeezed for targets this season surrounded by Moore and Allen. In his final season in college, Odunze ranked 18th in YPRR and 8th in PFF receiving grade. We still have no idea how much 11 personnel Chicago will run and who will be the starter opposite Moore when the team rolls into two wide sets. Odunze is a decent flex based on talent, but if at all possible I'm sitting him this week. We need to see what his role and snap share look like before tossing him into starting lineups. Odunze likely runs most of his routes on the perimeter against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L'Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).
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44.
Brian Thomas Jr.
JAC (at MIA)
At least for Week 1, we should follow the Gabriel Davis rule for Thomas Jr. With his 20.5 aDOT in limited preseason action, Thomas Jr. could easily just be a field-stretching option for the Jaguars this season. His downfield exploits in college at LSU were impressive, as he ranked 32nd in YPRR in his final season. His 14.2% TPRR in the preseason isn't great, but again, it is a 28-route sample that we have to work with. With these small tea leaves to piece together, it's wise to sit him in Week 1 against a pass defense that allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns and the 12th-lowest passer rating to downfield passing last year.
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45.
Khalil Shakir
BUF (vs . ARI)
After Week 7 last year, Shakir logged nine games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps. In those contests, he posted a strong 2.18 yards per route run with 0.085 first downs per route run, but he only managed to cultivate an 11% target share and 12% air-yard share. In that stretch among 84 qualifying receivers, he was 42nd in fantasy points per game. Last year, Arizona utilized two high at the second-highest rate (64.9%). In Weeks 8-18 last year, against two-high, Shakir saw similar production, with his target share only bumping to 11.8% and his YPRR sitting at 2.11. The matchup is in his favor against a pass defense that allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to slot wide receivers. Shakir will match up with Garrett Williams (72.4% catch rate and 85.7 passer rating) for most of the day. The floor isn't great for Shakir in Week 1, but he has some upside to consider as a flex play.
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46.
Tyler Lockett
SEA (vs . DEN)
Lockett continued his downward trend last year. His YPRR has dropped in each of the last three seasons, with last year's mark being his lowest since 2017. Last year, he managed a WR37 finish in fantasy points per game while ranking 40th in receiving yards per game and 36th in first downs per route run. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Last year, against single-high, Lockett had a 20.7% target share, 1.67 YPRR, a 25% first-read share, and 0.086 FD/RR. Lockett could remain the second option against single high this year behind Metcalf, but my money is on Smith-Njigba taking over that role. He practiced on a limited basis all week before getting upgraded to full on walkthrough Friday.
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47.
Jameson Williams
DET (vs . LAR)
We'll see if Jameson Williams can evolve into a high-end target earner, but last year's metrics don't point to that happening. Among 93 qualifying receivers last season, Williams was 62nd in target per route run rate, 55th in yards per route run, and 70th in first downs per route run. Last year, he only managed to surpass 60% of the snaps in four games, with only three games of at least six or more targets. He operated as a field stretcher, which could come in handy against the Rams. Last year, he was ninth in aDOT and now faces a Rams pass defense that allowed the third-most deep passing touchdowns and the fifth-most deep passing yards last year. Williams will see Cobie Durant (65.2% catch rate and 101.1 passer rating) and Tre'Davious White (60% catch rate and 80.6 passer rating) in coverage for most of the game.
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48.
Ladd McConkey
LAC (vs . LV)
McConkey is slated to be the team's starting slot receiver. He has the talent to be the team's WR1 this season, but it's still questionable if he will play in two wide receiver sets and how much the Chargers will utilize 11 personnel. I could easily see McConkey being this year's Jayden Reed. A player that has his playing time capped because of the offense that he is in has to rely on touchdown run out and efficiency to hit in his rookie season. McConkey has the raw talent to do it. Last year at Georgia, McConkey was in the 98th percentile in receiving grade and receiving grade versus single coverage. He was also in the 91st percentile or higher in separation percentage and YPRR. He's a dicey flex for Week 1. McConkey will line up against Nate Hobbs (76.8% catch rate and 103.1 passer rating) for most of the game. After Antonio Pierce took over as the head coach, the Raiders allowed the 11th-fewest receiving touchdowns and the 14th-fewest receiving yards to slot receivers.
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49.
Jordan Addison
MIN (at NYG)
Addison rode high last year because of touchdown luck. Yep, I said it. The rest of his target earning metrics were not close to the consensus perception because of his WR30 finish last year. Addison had the fourth-most receiving touchdowns last year behind only Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. That's not recurring this year. Here's the gallon of cold water for the Addison hive. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 46th in target share, 59th in targets per route run, 51st in yards per route run, and 58th in first downs per route run. What stat there gives hope that he will be more than a WR4 this season if touchdown regression hits? None. New Giants' defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate last year (53.6%) with Tennessee. Against two-high last year, Addison's numbers are surprisingly strong with a 22% TPRR and 2.06 YPRR. Addison will run most of his routes against Nick McCloud (68.2% catch rate and 83.9 passer rating) and Deonte Banks (57.6% catch rate and 84.7 passer rating). Addison is a decent flex this week.
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50.
Jakobi Meyers
LV (at LAC)
No, that's not a typo. Meyers was the WR24 in fantasy points per game last year. Yes, much of that was fueled by the fifth-most touchdowns among wide receivers, but it's not like Meyers is a slouch. He commanded a 19.9% target share with a 25.9% air-yard share while ranking 29th in FD/RR. Meyers is a low-end flex who will run about 71% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (64.7% catch rate and 98.0 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (72.5% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating).
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51.
Romeo Doubs
GB (at PHI)
Doubs was the WR46 in fantasy points per game last year, which was influenced greatly by touchdowns. Last season, Doubs was fourth among wideouts in end zone target while also ranking seventh in receiving touchdowns (eight). His per-route efficiency metrics were not great by any stretch of the imagination. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 50th in target share, 57th in receiving yards per game, and 56th in yards per route run. Doubs, however, was one of Green Bay's go-to guys against Cover 3 and Cover 6, so there's some flex appeal hope for Week 1. The Eagles defense will likely deploy heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 usage this year after Vic Fangio dialed it up on 59.7% of the Dolphins' defensive snaps last year. Last season, in Weeks 5-13, against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Doubs led the team with a 16.3% target share and a 19.5% first-read share while also sitting at second with a 32.9% air-yard share. He only produced 1.18 yards per route run, but if the volume is there this week, it might not matter much. Doubs will run about 84% of his routes against Darius Slay (64.3% catch rate and 84.3 passer rating) and rookie Quinyon Mitchell.
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52.
Rashid Shaheed
NO (vs . CAR)
Shaheed flashed a big-time upside last year. While he was the WR45 in fantasy points per game last season, he had five weeks of WR2 of better finishes in weekly scoring. Last year, he drew a 13.6% target share and 23.5% air-yard share while ranking 43rd in yards per route run and 45th in receiving yards per game out of 81 qualifying receivers. Shaheed operated as the field stretcher, ranking 10th in aDOT and 15th in deep targets. This isn't the matchup to likely roll Shaheed out there as a flex option. If he's the deep shot specialist again, Carolina will make it a point to shut those down with their two high coverage. Last year, the Panthers held passers to the third-fewest deep passing touchdowns and seventh-lowest deep completion rate.
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53.
Keon Coleman
BUF (vs . ARI)
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54.
Gabe Davis
JAC (at MIA)
The hard-fast rule with Gabriel Davis probably still applies for 2024 unless we see another evolution in his game. If the defense is pitiful at defending deep passing, then fire up Davis. Last year, he ranked 15th in deep targets and eighth in aDOT among wide receivers. Well, if Miami's defense continues last year's trend, this isn't a week to look to Davis for flex help. Last year, the Dolphins allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns and the 12th-lowest passer rating to downfield passing. Sit Davis for Week 1.
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55.
Curtis Samuel
BUF (vs . ARI)
Samuel has been practicing on a limited basis. Currently, he is likely to suit up for Week 1. The last time he was in a Joe Brady offense, he finished as the WR27 in fantasy points per game. Last year, sadly, he was the WR48 in fantasy points per game with a 14.7% target share and 1.60 YPRR. I wouldn't be shocked if Samuel was utilized more on the perimeter this season, considering his performance out wide over the last two seasons. Last year, from the perimeter, among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 30th in yards per route run (2.12). The year prior, he posted a 1.84 yards per route run mark from the outside. Last year, Arizona utilized two high at the second-highest rate (64.9%). Against two high last year, Samuel had a 22% TPRR, 1.62 YPRR, and 0.062 FD/RR. These numbers are not amazing, but his overall profile last year was depressed by the struggling quarterback play of Sam Howell. Samuel is a solid flex for Week 1.
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56.
Brandin Cooks
DAL (at CLE)
Cooks was the WR43 in fantasy last year. In Weeks 6-18 last year, among 83 qualifying receivers, Cooks ranked 45th in receiving yards per game, 61st in target share, 57th in yards per route run, and 44th in first downs per route run. In Week 1, he faces a Browns' secondary that led the NFL in single-high usage last year (65.4%). Against single-high last year, Cooks had a 16.3% target share, 1.79 YPRR, and 0.087 FD/RR. None of these metrics are awe-inspiring. Cooks is a sit for Week 1 that will run about 64% of his routes against Denzel Ward (51.5% catch rate and 77.3 passer rating) and Martin Emerson Jr. (49.3% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).
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57.
Jerry Jeudy
CLE (vs . DAL)
Jeudy has been all hope and hype to this point in his career and has little on-field production to justify it. Yes, he had a 2022 campaign, but the other three years of his career have been lackluster. Last season, he was the WR55 in fantasy points per game. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 40th in target share, 42nd in YPRR, 46th in receiving yards per game, and 64th in FD/RR. He draws a tough matchup in Week 1 against a Dallas secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards and PPR points per target to slot receivers last year. Jeudy will have to contend with Jourdan Lewis (67.6% catch rate and 105.1 passer rating) all day.
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58.
Darnell Mooney
ATL (vs . PIT)
Mooney is coming off a horrific season where he was the WR86 in fantasy. In 15 games played last year, he only managed two weekly finishes inside the top 36 wide receivers. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 70th in target share and 74th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Last season, the Steelers had the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (62.8%). Mooney was passable but not electric against single high in 2023 with a 15% target share, 1.21 yards per route run, and a 20.4% first-read share. Mooney will see Donte Jackson (66.2% catch rate and 111.1 passer rating) and Joey Porter Jr. (47.4% catch rate and 69.6 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.
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59.
Mike Williams
PIT (at ATL)
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60.
DeMario Douglas
NE (at CIN)
Douglas is the only Patriots' wide receiver I feel good about possibly plugging into a lineup in Week 1. We still don't know the rotation of the receivers on the outside, but Douglas should have no concerns as the team's starting slot. Last year, in the eight games Douglas played at least 50% of the snaps, he commanded a team-leading 20.8% target share and 24.4% first read share. He was a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in five of those eight games. Last year Cincy had the sixth-highest single-high rate (59.8%). In that eight-game sample, against single-high, Douglas managed a 22.5% target share with 1.98 YPRR and a 23.2% first-read share. Encouraging numbers, no doubt. The good vibes continue when we look at the matchup for Douglas. Last year, the Bengals gave up the third-highest receiving touchdowns and the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Douglas will run about 67% of his routes against Mike Hilton (72.7% catch rate and 78.5 passer rating).
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61.
Adam Thielen
CAR (at NO)
Thielen has to prove in 2024 that he still has something left in the tank before I'm willing to slide him into a fantasy lineup. Last year, after Week 8, he faded badly. In Weeks 9-18, Thielen surpassed 80 receiving yards only once, as he averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game with 1.29 YPRR. Thielen is a sit and not worthy of a roster spot right now in most conventional fantasy leagues.
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62.
Andrei Iosivas
CIN (vs . NE)
Iosivas will open this year as the Bengals' starting slot and WR3. Iosivas flashed late last year when called upon to step into a starting role. In Weeks 16 and 18, Iosivas played at least 70% of snaps while drawing a 21.4% target share, a 35.5% air-yard share, and a 19.2% first-read share. He produced an eye-popping 0.121 FD/RR. It's a very small sample, but it had to be mentioned. Last year, New England was seventh in single high rate (59.7%). Last season against single-high, Iosivas had a 22% TPRR and only 1.09 YPRR. Iosivas could be moved from the slot to the perimeter if Higgins is out or limited which at this point looks likely. If that comes to fruition, he'll line up against Christian Gonzalez (66.7% catch rate and 67.5 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (57.4% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) for most of the game. Iosivas is a decent flex play in Week 1.
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63.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB (at PHI)
Wicks has gained hype and a hive following this offseason. I won't say it isn't deserved because he was ridiculous on a per-route basis last season. Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 37th in target per route run rate, 17th in yards per route run, and 13th in first downs per route run. The problem for Wicks is that he still projects as a part-time player only and the WR4 on this depth chart. In Weeks 5-13 last season, with Watson healthy, Wicks was fourth on the team with only a 30.3% route per dropback rate. For what it's worth, Wicks was strong (in a VERY limited sample) against Cover 3 and Cover 6 (only 35 routes) with a 29% target per route run rate and 4.51 yards per route run. I wouldn't be trotting Wicks out in lineups in Week 1, as he might only run a handful of routes, but if you're in a DEEP league and need the flex upside, I get it. Wicks is still best viewed as a stash and not a flex play at this point.
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64.
Adonai Mitchell
IND (vs . HOU)
With Downs out, Mitchell will be starting in three wide receiver sets and running from the slot. In the preseason, while logging a 26% TPRR and 1.26 YPRR, Mitchell lined up in the slot on 69.6% of his routes. I wasn't high on Mitchell as a prospect after he ranked outside the top 96 FBS wide receivers in YPRR, PFF receiving grade, and yards after the catch per reception (minimum 50 targets) in his final collegiate season. Mitchell will face Jimmie Ward (81.2% catch rate and 69.3 passer rating) for most of the game.
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65.
Michael Wilson
ARI (at BUF)
Last year, in the 12 games Wilson played at least 69% of the snaps, he commanded a 13.5% target share and 25.5% air-yard share, producing 1.37 YPRR and 8.8 fantasy points per game. Overall, he was the WR57 in fantasy points per game with three games inside the top-24 wideouts in weekly scoring. Last year, Buffalo utilized two high at the third-highest rate (58.6%). In the games where he saw a full-time snap share against two high, Wilson saw his YPRR climb to 1.66, and his fantasy points per route run sit at 0.40. Among 75 qualifying wide receivers last year, against two-high, those marks ranked 35th and 34th. Wilson is a viable flex in Week 1 who will run about 74% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (66.3% catch rate and 73.1 passer rating) and Christian Benford (68.9% catch rate and 87.1 passer rating).
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66.
Ja'Lynn Polk
NE (at CIN)
Polk is currently listed as a backup on various depth charts, so it's tough to consider starting him in Week 1. We have no clue what his route and snap shares will look like. New England looks to be pushing the crusty veterans on their depth chart to the front of the line and making the rookies earn it. It's not an approach I would take, but hey, what do I know? I would sit Polk in all formats for Week 1. Last year, Cincy allowed the eighth-fewest receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in PPR points per target.
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67.
Rashod Bateman
BAL (at KC)
Bateman is the sneaky flex play in this game. Last year, his overall numbers weren't great, but he was extremely effective against two-high coverage. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Against two-high, Bateman had an 18% target per route run rate, which was only a small tick behind Flowers (19%), but Bateman produced 1.82 yards per route run while also ranking second on the team against two-high with 0.34 fantasy points per route run. With a strong total and a close (ish) spread, there will be scoring in this game, and if Baltimore can keep up their end of that bargain, Bateman should be part of the scoring onslaught. He will run most of his routes on the boundary against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating).
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68.
Demarcus Robinson
LAR (at DET)
Robinson was on fire to close last season. In Weeks 13-18, he went on a tear ranking (among 109 qualifying receivers), 36th in YPRR, 28th in FD/RR, and 26th in fantasy points per route run. In those six weeks, Robinson was the WR31 in fantasy points per game. This isn't the game to look to flex him, though. Last year, Detroit utilized single-high on 54.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, over the final six games of last year, Robinson had a 16.1% target share, 1.58 YPRR, a 16.1% first-read share, and 0.089 FD/RR. Robinson was the distant third option against single-high. Kupp and Nacua will lead the way and soak up a ton of volume. Robinson will run about 76% of his routes against Carlton Davis (63.3% catch rate and 102.5 passer rating) and rookie Terrion Arnold.
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69.
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG (vs . MIN)
Once Robinson was a full-time player again in the Giants' offense, he was the WR55 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 17% target share with 1.37 YPRR and a 21.2% first-read share. He managed five weeks as a WR3 or better in weekly scoring. Minnesota had the sixth-highest rate of two-high last year (55.5%). In those 14 games, Robinson was integrated back into the offense against two high; he had a 16.1% target share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share (led the team). The Giants looked to him first against this coverage type. He won't be the first-line weapon this year with Nabers in town, but I do expect him to be involved heavily. The matchup in the slot against Byron Murphy (in slot coverage last year: 68.9% catch rate and 124.1 passer rating) is also a nice one. If you are struggling in a DEEP league, Robinson is a flex worthy. Last year, Minny allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the 11th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
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70.
Tyler Boyd
TEN (at CHI)
Last year, Boyd limped to a WR59 finish in fantasy points per game. He managed to draw only a 15.1% target share with 39.2 receiving yards per game, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. He's a deep league flex only for Week 1. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Boyd had an 18% TPRR, 1.51 YPRR, and 0.053 FD/RR. None of these metrics inspire confidence against the Bears. Sit Boyd Week 1.
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71.
Greg Dortch
ARI (at BUF)
Last year, in Weeks 11-18, Dortch assumed a starting role-playing at least 65% of the snaps weekly, seeing a 15.7% target share and 15.1% first-read share with 1.42 YPRR as the WR49 in fantasy. Last year, Buffalo utilized two high at the third-highest rate (58.6%). In the games where he saw a full-time snap share against two high, Dortch saw his target share dip to 11.8% and his YPRR fall to 1.08. This interesting wrinkle is that during his starting stretch, he played 76.5% of his snaps on the perimeter. Dortch should be the team's starting slot this year so that the outside usage could have contributed to the dip in his production. Dortch is a decent (but not standout) deep league flex who will see Taron Johnson (76.5% catch rate and 104.9 passer rating) in coverage most of the day. Last year, Buffalo allowed the fifth-most receptions to slot receivers while also ranking 17th in PPR points per target and 18th in receiving yards allowed to the position.
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72.
Jalen McMillan
TB (vs . WAS)
I wasn't high on McMillan as a prospect, but he played well in the preseason. He has a glorious matchup in Week 1. This preseason, he had a 37.5% TPRR while ranking 13th in receiving grade and 11th in YPRR. The entire Washington secondary was in shambles last year, and it doesn't look much better entering Week 1. McMillan will see Benjamin St. Juste (68% catch rate and 102.9 passer rating) and Michael Davis (65.5% catch rate and 119.8 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day. Washington allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to wide receivers last year.
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73.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN (at SEA)
Mims was a rookie season flop. He finished as the WR91 in fantasy points per game, eclipsing a 50% snap rate only twice. His per-route numbers weren't great either, as he had a 14% TPRR, 1.50 YPRR, and 0.038 FD/RR. Baltimore utilized two high on 53.4% of their snaps last year (eighth-highest). With Mike MacDonald in Seattle now, I expect similar coverage usage this season. Against two high, Mims per route numbers were even worse with a 12% TPRR, 1,50 YPRR, and 0.034 FD/RR. Add on that Seattle allowed the third-fewest receiving touchdowns to slots last year while ranking 18th in PPR points per target, and Mims is a must-sit.
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74.
Darius Slayton
NYG (vs . MIN)
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75.
Josh Reynolds
JAC (at MIA)
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76.
Xavier Legette
CAR (at NO)
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77.
Quentin Johnston
LAC (vs . LV)
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78.
Jahan Dotson
PHI (vs . GB)
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79.
Jalen Tolbert
DAL (at CLE)
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80.
Jalin Hyatt
NYG (vs . MIN)
Hyatt's not on the deep league flex radar this week. Minnesota had the sixth-highest rate of two-high last year (55.5%). Last season against two-high, Hyatt had an 8% TPRR and a woeful 0.81 YPRR. That's not good, Bob. Even if we take that out of the equation, I don't know if Jones will have time in the pocket to fire it deep to Hyatt. Hyatt led all receivers with a 21.0 aDOT last season.
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81.
Van Jefferson
PIT (at ATL)
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82.
Luke McCaffrey
WAS (at TB)
Well, well, well. Look at that. McCaffrey is now projected to be a starter in two wide receiver sets for Washington. McCaffrey has been a crush of mine since I watched him at the Senior Bowl in Mobile (shout out to Jim Nagy). McCaffrey could hit the ground running in Week 1 against a team that utilized zone coverage on 73.9% of their defensive snaps last year. Last year against zone among 111 qualifying FBS wide receivers, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and 28th in YPRR against zone. If McCaffrey is lining up on the perimeter for most of the game, he'll see Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) in coverage. McCaffrey is a fine deep-league flex.
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83.
Elijah Moore
CLE (vs . DAL)
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84.
Alec Pierce
IND (vs . HOU)
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85.
Jermaine Burton
CIN (vs . NE)
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86.
K.J. Osborn
WAS (at TB)
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87.
Nelson Agholor
BAL (at KC)
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88.
Tre Tucker
LV (at LAC)
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89.
Allen Lazard
NYJ (at SF)
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90.
Jonathan Mingo
DAL (at CLE)
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91.
Jauan Jennings
SF (vs . NYJ)
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92.
Malachi Corley
NYJ (at SF)
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93.
Dyami Brown
WAS (at TB)
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94.
Noah Brown
WAS (at TB)
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95.
Trey Palmer
TB (vs . WAS)
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96.
Cedric Tillman
CLE (vs . DAL)
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97.
Treylon Burks
TEN (at CHI)
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98.
Kalif Raymond
DET (vs . LAR)
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99.
Jacob Cowing
SF (vs . NYJ)
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100.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
ATL (vs . PIT)
|
|
101.
Xavier Gipson
NYJ (at SF)
|
|
102.
Trenton Irwin
FA (BYE)
|
|
103.
Calvin Austin III
PIT (at ATL)
|
|
104.
Justin Watson
KC (vs . BAL)
|
|
105.
Jalen Nailor
MIN (at NYG)
|
|
106.
Tyquan Thornton
KC (vs . BAL)
|
|
107.
Braxton Berrios
MIA (vs . JAC)
|
|
108.
Mack Hollins
BUF (vs . ARI)
|
|
109.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WAS (at TB)
|
|
110.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
111.
Tutu Atwell
LAR (at DET)
|
|
112.
Robert Woods
HOU (at IND)
|
|
113.
Jordan Whittington
LAR (at DET)
|
|
114.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
115.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL (at CLE)
|
|
116.
Jake Bobo
SEA (vs . DEN)
|
|
117.
Parker Washington
JAC (at MIA)
|
|
118.
Devaughn Vele
DEN (at SEA)
|
|
119.
Charlie Jones
CIN (vs . NE)
|
|
120.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
KC (vs . BAL)
|
|
121.
KhaDarel Hodge
ATL (vs . PIT)
|
|
122.
Brandon Powell
MIN (at NYG)
|
|
123.
Derius Davis
LAC (vs . LV)
|
|
124.
Bo Melton
GB (at PHI)
|
|
125.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
KC (vs . BAL)
|
|
126.
Skyy Moore
KC (vs . BAL)
|
|
127.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TEN (at CHI)
|
|
128.
Scotty Miller
FA (BYE)
|
|
129.
Jalen Brooks
DAL (at CLE)
|
|
130.
Johnny Wilson
PHI (vs . GB)
|
|
131.
Bub Means
NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
132.
Zach Pascal
ARI (at BUF)
|
|
133.
Devin Duvernay
JAC (at MIA)
|
|
134.
Ashton Dulin
IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
135.
Anthony Gould
IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
136.
Jamison Crowder
WAS (at TB)
|
|
137.
Velus Jones Jr.
CAR (at NO)
|
|
138.
Isaiah Williams
CIN (vs . NE)
|
|
139.
Chris Moore
WAS (at TB)
|
|
140.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU (at IND)
|
|
141.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
MIN (at NYG)
|
|
142.
Ronnie Bell
DET (vs . LAR)
|
|
143.
Tim Patrick
DET (vs . LAR)
|
|
144.
Deonte Harty
BAL (at KC)
|
|
145.
Kayshon Boutte
NE (at CIN)
|
|
146.
Grant DuBose
MIA (vs . JAC)
|
|
147.
Jamari Thrash
CLE (vs . DAL)
|
|
148.
David Moore
CAR (at NO)
|
|
149.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
150.
Tylan Wallace
BAL (at KC)
|
|
151.
DJ Turner
LV (at LAC)
|
|
152.
Robbie Chosen
FA (BYE)
|
|
153.
Jordan Matthews
CAR (at NO)
|
|
154.
Simi Fehoko
LAC (vs . LV)
|
|
155.
Chris Conley
SF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
156.
DeAndre Carter
CHI (vs . TEN)
|
|
|
157.
Kameron Johnson
TB (vs . WAS)
|
|
158.
Ben Skowronek
PIT (at ATL)
|
|
159.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DEN (at SEA)
|
|
160.
Tyler Scott
CHI (vs . TEN)
|
|
161.
Zay Jones
ARI (at BUF)
|
|
162.
Tom Kennedy
DET (vs . LAR)
|
|
163.
Steven Sims Jr.
BAL (at KC)
|
|
164.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton
NYG (vs . MIN)
|
|
165.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
FA (BYE)
|
|
166.
Tim Jones
JAC (at MIA)
|
|
167.
Kadarius Toney
FA (BYE)
|
|
168.
Dareke Young
SEA (vs . DEN)
|
|
169.
Mason Tipton
NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
170.
Tyler Johnson
LAR (at DET)
|
|
171.
Jha'Quan Jackson
TEN (at CHI)
|
|
172.
Irvin Charles
NYJ (at SF)
|
|
173.
Britain Covey
PHI (vs . GB)
|
|
174.
Gunner Olszewski
NYG (vs . MIN)
|
|
175.
Chris Blair
ATL (vs . PIT)
|
|
176.
David Bell
CLE (vs . DAL)
|
|
177.
Parris Campbell
PHI (vs . GB)
|
|
178.
Jaelon Darden
SEA (vs . DEN)
|
|
179.
Brandon Johnson
PIT (at ATL)
|
|
180.
Byron Pringle
FA (BYE)
|
|
181.
Justyn Ross
KC (vs . BAL)
|
|
182.
Jalen Reagor
LAC (vs . LV)
|
|
183.
Jason Brownlee
KC (vs . BAL)
|
|
184.
Jalen Guyton
FA (BYE)
|
|
185.
Allen Robinson II
DET (vs . LAR)
|
|
186.
DeVante Parker
FA (BYE)
|
|
187.
KJ Hamler
BUF (vs . ARI)
|
|
188.
Trent Taylor
SF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
189.
Dee Eskridge
MIA (vs . JAC)
|
|
190.
Samori Toure
CHI (vs . TEN)
|
|
191.
D.J. Montgomery
IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
192.
Isaiah Hodgins
SF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
193.
Equanimeous St. Brown
FA (BYE)
|
|
194.
Michael Thomas
FA (BYE)
|
|
195.
Keith Kirkwood
FA (BYE)
|
|
196.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
NYG (vs . MIN)
|
|
197.
Daurice Fountain
FA (BYE)
|
|
198.
Sterling Shepard
TB (vs . WAS)
|
|
199.
Joe Parker
FA (BYE)
|
|
200.
Collin Johnson
CHI (vs . TEN)
|
|
201.
Elijah Cooks
PHI (vs . GB)
|
|
202.
Danny Gray
PHI (vs . GB)
|
|
203.
Antoine Green
DET (vs . LAR)
|
|
204.
Quintez Cephus
LAR (at DET)
|
|
205.
Austin Trammell
JAC (at MIA)
|
|
206.
Alex Erickson
FA (BYE)
|
|
207.
James Proche II
CLE (vs . DAL)
|
|
208.
Bisi Johnson
FA (BYE)
|
|
209.
Willie Snead IV
FA (BYE)
|
|
210.
Lawrence Cager
WAS (at TB)
|
|
211.
Cody Thompson
TB (vs . WAS)
|
|
212.
Cornelius Johnson
GB (at PHI)
|
|
213.
Tejhaun Palmer
ARI (at BUF)
|
|
214.
Michael Strachan
WAS (at TB)
|
|
215.
Jamal Agnew
FA (BYE)
|
|
216.
Marquise Goodwin
FA (BYE)
|
|
217.
Kyle Philips
PHI (vs . GB)
|
|
218.
N'Keal Harry
FA (BYE)
|
|
219.
Jeff Cotton Jr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
220.
Denzel Mims
FA (BYE)
|
|
221.
Ty James
FA (BYE)
|
|
222.
Isaiah McKenzie
FA (BYE)
|
|
223.
Josh Ali
FA (BYE)
|
|
224.
Quez Watkins
ARI (at BUF)
|
|
225.
Tulu Griffin
GB (at PHI)
|
|
226.
Justin Shorter
LV (at LAC)
|
|
227.
Deven Thompkins
CAR (at NO)
|
|
228.
Marcus Kemp
FA (BYE)
|
|
229.
Stanley Morgan Jr.
TEN (at CHI)
|
|
230.
Rysen John
FA (BYE)
|
|
231.
Marquez Callaway
TB (vs . WAS)
|
|
232.
Lance McCutcheon
PIT (at ATL)
|
|
233.
Daniel Arias
FA (BYE)
|
|
234.
Austin Mack
FA (BYE)
|
|
235.
Kaylon Geiger Sr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
236.
Lynn Bowden Jr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
237.
Randall Cobb
FA (BYE)
|
|
238.
Penny Hart
FA (BYE)
|
|
239.
John Ross
FA (BYE)
|
|
240.
Jeff Foreman
LV (at LAC)
|
|
241.
Miles Boykin
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
242.
Devron Harper
FA (BYE)
|
|
243.
Hakeem Butler
FA (BYE)
|
|
244.
Laquon Treadwell
IND (vs . HOU)
|
