Fantasy Football Player Notes

Kirk was on his way to a wonderful season last year before injury crushed it. In Weeks 2-12, Krik was the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.6% target share and 30.5% air-yard share, producing 2.31 YPRR and 0.101 FD/RR. He has a chance to pick up right where he left off in Week 1. If Lawrence rips the Fins secondary to shreds, Kirk should be a big part of the plan. Last year, in Weeks 1-12, on play-action passes, Kirk tied for the team lead with a 19.6% target share and was second in first-read share (21.8%). Miami was also torn to pieces by slot receivers, giving up the seventh-most receptions and the seventh-highest PPR points per target. Kirk should run circles around Kader Kohou (83.5% catch rate and 132.9 passer rating).

At least for Week 1, we should follow the Gabriel Davis rule for Thomas Jr. With his 20.5 aDOT in limited preseason action, Thomas Jr. could easily just be a field-stretching option for the Jaguars this season. His downfield exploits in college at LSU were impressive, as he ranked 32nd in YPRR in his final season. His 14.2% TPRR in the preseason isn't great, but again, it is a 28-route sample that we have to work with. With these small tea leaves to piece together, it's wise to sit him in Week 1 against a pass defense that allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns and the 12th-lowest passer rating to downfield passing last year.

The hard-fast rule with Gabriel Davis probably still applies for 2024 unless we see another evolution in his game. If the defense is pitiful at defending deep passing, then fire up Davis. Last year, he ranked 15th in deep targets and eighth in aDOT among wide receivers. Well, if Miami's defense continues last year's trend, this isn't a week to look to Davis for flex help. Last year, the Dolphins allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns and the 12th-lowest passer rating to downfield passing. Sit Davis for Week 1.