Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 5 Rankings
|
1.
Jordan Mason
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
Jordan Mason posted a career-high 160 total yards in last week's victory against the New England Patriots. He scored for the third time in four games and finished the week as a top-five fantasy running back. Mason will carry similar upside in Week 5 against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards and fourth-most total touchdowns to the running back position. Continue to treat Jordan Mason as a rock-solid RB1 in all formats.
|
|
2.
Derrick Henry
RB - BAL (at CIN)
Remember when people were concerned that the Baltimore Ravens were not getting Derrick Henry involved enough in the offense? Needless to say, the peanut gallery has been silenced. Henry has 53 total touches over his last two games and has turned them into 383 yards and four scores. You can almost argue that Henry has handled too many touches of late. In any event, expect the good times to keep rolling for King Henry. Henry faces the Cincinnati Bengals and their below-average run defense in Week 5. Though they came in a Tennessee Titans uniform, Henry has had 250 total yards in his last two meetings with the Bengals. Derrick Henry should continue to be a high-end RB1 for the foreseeable future, despite his relative lack of involvement in the passing game.
|
|
3.
Kyren Williams
RB - LAR (vs . GB)
Kyren Williams had his most efficient rushing game of the 2024 season last week. Although that was admittedly a low bar to clear. Williams had 94 yards on 19 carries and scored for the sixth time this year. The volume should continue to be there for Williams, but efficiency could once again be an issue for the Rams' running back. The Rams host the Green Bay Packers in Week 5. Green Bay ranks third in defensive EPA against the run this season. With five of this year's top 20 scoring backs on a bye, Williams' volume keeps him as an RB1. However, he is a longshot to reach his ceiling in this matchup.
|
|
4.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO (at KC)
Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in fantasy points through four weeks. But it has not exactly come in the manner in which we might have expected entering the year. Kamara is averaging 20 carries per game after averaging just under 15 in each of the last two seasons. The increase in volume has come with a corresponding decrease in some other metrics. Among 53 running backs with at least 20 percent of their team's carries, Kamara ranks 46th in both elusive rating and yards per attempt after contact, per Pro Football Focus. This could be something to monitor down the road. But for now, Kamara's bell-cow role in Klint Kubiak's creative scheme makes him an every-week RB1. That holds even in a difficult Week 5 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.
|
|
5.
Kenneth Walker III
RB - SEA (vs . NYG)
Welcome back, Kenneth Walker III! Coming off a two-week layoff due to an oblique injury and facing a tough Detroit Lions run defense, few expected Walker to have his usual impact on the Monday night festivities. All he did was score three times on just 12 carries on the way to an overall RB2 finish for the week. Fantasy managers may not get a carbon copy of that performance in Week 5, but Walker III is squarely on the RB1 radar. The Seahawks will host the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. Provided there are no limitations or aftereffects from the injury, Walker III should be in line to handle upwards of 20 touches in a game which should feature a positive game script and a slight advantage in the trenches.
|
|
6.
Bijan Robinson
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
Robinson has been disappointing thus far this season as the RB22 in fantasy. It's tough to blame his offensive line for the shortcomings, as they are ranked sixth-best in yards before contact per attempt. Robinson simply hasn't been breaking tackles at the same rate during this rookie season. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. In Weeks 1-3, he averaged 19.7 touches and 85 total yards. During that stretch, he owned the backfield with 72% of the rushing play snaps, 91% of the passing down snaps, and 78% of the red zone snaps. Last week, his market share of the backfield volume fell off. He played only 47% of the rushing downs and 67% of the passing downs, with 11 touches and 74 total yards. This is a fantastic spot for a bounceback for Robinson. Tampa Bay's run defense has been like Swiss cheese. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL.
|
|
7.
Aaron Jones
RB - MIN (vs . NYJ)
Jones continues to crush this season as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 20 touches and 116.1 total yards. Among 53 qualifying running backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Jones should be the engine of the Vikings offense this week. The strength of the Jets' defense is their secondary, but you can run on this defense. The Jets have allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the tenth-highest success rate to zone runs (Jones 56.3% zone).
|
|
8.
Breece Hall
RB - NYJ (at MIN)
After posting three consecutive top-15 weekly finishes to start the year, Breece Hall scored just 2.8 fantasy points in a 10-9 home loss to the Denver Broncos. Things may not get much better for Hall when he faces off with Minnesota's top-ranked defense in Week 5. The Vikings have held three of four primary backs (Jordan Mason being the lone exception) outside of the top 20 in fantasy points during their 4-0 start to the season. Hall's ability to catch passes out of the backfield should help him buck that trend, but fantasy managers should temper expectations in this matchup.
|
|
9.
Josh Jacobs
RB - GB (at LAR)
First, the good. Josh Jacobs has 81 opportunities (carries plus targets) through four games. He has at least 15 opportunities in all four of Green Bay's games. Now, the not-so-good. Jacobs has yet to finish any of those four weeks as a top-20 fantasy running back. He has not scored and has fumbled twice, losing one. Jacobs has also ceded more work in the last two weeks to Emanuel Wilson. And though Jacobs is still the primary Packer running back, Wilson has held his own. Green Bay has an excellent matchup this week against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams rank 31st in DVOA versus both the run and pass. Given the advantages Green Bay will have in the passing game, it will be interesting to see how much they lean on Jacobs. Jacobs should have his best fantasy day of the season in Week 5 but will need a touchdown to finish as an RB1.
|
|
10.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL (at PIT)
CeeDee Lamb came through with a long touchdown catch-and-run for the second time in his last three games on the way to a top-five weekly finish. Though fantasy managers should be satisfied with Lamb's year-to-date performance, it feels like there has been meat left on the bone. Lamb has 300 first-half yards through four games, but just 16 total yards after intermission. There should be a more concerted effort to keep Lamb involved for four quarters this week versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dallas has not proven they can run the ball, and Pittsburgh boasts one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Cowboys will also be without number-two wideout Brandin Cooks. The Steelers will surely pay extra attention to Lamb. But this feels like a game where Dak Prescott could target his star wide receiver 15 or more times. That makes CeeDee Lamb an elite WR1 in all leagues.
|
|
11.
James Cook
RB - BUF (at HOU)
A blowout at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens was partly to blame for James Cook falling short of expectations a week ago. But fantasy managers should not assume that Cook will be a top-10 fantasy back in Week 5 either. Cook's two best games have come in Buffalo blowout victories. That is an unlikely outcome with the Bills traveling to take on the Texans on Sunday. Houston has an above-average run defense and has allowed the fewest receiving yards to enemy backs thus far this year. 34.1 percent of Cook's fantasy points have come as a receiver. I am still starting Cook where I have him, but I think this will be more of a "floor" game for him as opposed to a "ceiling" game.
|
|
12.
Najee Harris
RB - PIT (vs . DAL)
Harris has been solid but unspectacular this season as the RB34 in fantasy points per game. He has played at least 56% of the snaps in three of four games while averaging 19.5 touches and 78 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 38th in missed tackle forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris faces an up-and-down Dallas run defense. They locked down the Giants last week, but overall, they have been unimpressive. Dallas ranks 17th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt allowed.
|
|
13.
Nico Collins
WR - HOU (vs . BUF)
Nico Collins continued his home dominance last week with a 12-151-1 line against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He will get another chance to pad those numbers when Houston hosts the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. This may not represent the smash spot for Collins that last week's matchup did. Buffalo plays a lot of zone coverage, which may lend itself towards a more even split with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Of course, we have the Diggs revenge narrative to consider as well. Continue to start Collins with confidence, but his upside may be slightly capped in this contest.
|
|
14.
Chuba Hubbard
RB - CAR (at CHI)
With Dalton under center, Hubbard has been the RB4 in fantasy points per game, averaging a 66% snap rate, 24 touches, and 145 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs this season, Hubbard ranks 18th in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard faces a run defense this week that has done a solid job of shutting down zone rushers. Overall, Chicago has allowed the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They have also held rushers to the seventh-lowest zone success rate (Hubbard 76.4% zone).
|
|
15.
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB - WAS (vs . CLE)
Robinson Jr. has been a wonderful RB2 this season. As the RB17 in fantasy points per game, he has averaged 18.5 touches and 93.8 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. He hasn't flashed a massive passing game ceiling, but he does have at least three targets in three of his four games. Robinson Jr. should return RB2 production in Week 5 against a Browns run defense that has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-most rushing yards per game. Robinson Jr. has been listed as a game-time decision after dealing with a knee issue this week. He didnât practice on Wednesday or Thursday before sneaking in a limited session on Friday. Iâd consider him closer to doubtful, so prepare a backup option for Week 5.
|
|
16.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN (vs . NYJ)
Justin Jefferson is the lone NFL wide receiver to score a touchdown in all four games to start the 2024 season. That streak may be in jeopardy on Sunday morning against the New York Jets. New York leads the NFL in pass defense EPA and has allowed just two receiving scores to opposing wideouts this season. The Jets have also struggled in run defense, so the Vikings may look to exploit that edge on the ground. Jefferson is talented enough to beat even the most difficult of matchups. However, do not be shocked if Jefferson has his least productive fantasy day of the season in Week 5.
|
|
17.
James Conner
RB - ARI (at SF)
James Conner bounced back from a subpar Week 3 to post his third RB1 finish of the young season last week. He will have a tougher matchup this week against San Francisco. The 49ers rank sixth in the NFL in run defense DVOA. San Francisco has been vulnerable to receiving backs out of the backfield. They have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs so far this season. Conner has only been targeted once in each of the last three games but did haul in three passes in Arizona's season opener. If the Cardinals can get Conner going as a receiver, he could end the week as an RB1. Otherwise, he will likely finish the week as a volume-based RB2 in 12-team leagues.
|
|
18.
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
Etienne picked up a shoulder issue last week and has opened this week with a limited practice. Last week he played a season-low 52% of snaps 12 touches and 60 total yards. It has been a tough season for Etienne so far as the RB29 in fantasy points per game. He hasn't rushed for more than 68 yards nor eclipsed 90 total yards in any week. He is 17th in opportunity share and 23rd in weighted opportunities. Some of this has been out of his hands as the team hasn't leaned on him in the rushing department. He hasn't received more than 13 carries in any game. On a per-touch basis, among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. This could be the bounceback game for Etienne. Indy has improved as a run defense as the season has moved along, but they still have some holes to their game. Indy is 15th in stuff rate, has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, and has given up the 10th-highest yards before contact per attempt. They have also struggled to defend gap runs giving up the 13th-highest yards per carry and the 12th-highest success rate (Etienne 61% gap). Last week Najee Harris struggled to get going, but he is running behind a line that has the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. That's not the case for Etienne who will operate behind a line that has the 10th-best adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Etienne should post his best rushing day of the 2024 season in Week 5.
|
|
19.
Ja'Marr Chase
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow targeted Ja'Marr Chase just six times in last week's victory in Carolina. But Chase would not let that prevent him from rewarding fantasy managers. Chase had a 63-yard touchdown and finished as the overall WR14 for the week. Volume has been a bit of an issue for Chase this season. He has only been targeted on 17.9 percent of Burrow's throws. It would be nice to see an uptick in targets, but Chase is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, as he proved again last week. Keep Chase locked in as a WR1 in Week 5.
|
|
20.
Jayden Reed
WR - GB (at LAR)
In the two games Jordan Love has played, Reed has finished as the WR1 and the WR2 in weekly fantasy scoring. In those games, Reed has had a 15.7% target share, a 22.7% air-yard share, 4.07 YPRR, and an 18.3% first-read share. The Rams utilize single-high at the seventh-highest rate (57.9%). Against single-high in those two games, Reed has seen his YPRR jump to an eye-popping 5.56 while his air-yard share has also increased to 38.3%. Reed is fourth on the team in red zone targets with two (tied). Reed will run about 84% of his routes against Quentin Lake (66.7% catch rate and 104.3 passer rating). The Rams have allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers this season.
|
|
21.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
If this isn't the Aiyuk breakout game, then it'll be another Samuel smash outing. Samuel is the WR17 in fantasy points per game, rocking along with a 25% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Samuel is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. He's seen his usual rushing usage with four attempts per game and a rushing score. Arizona has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.5% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Samuel has led the way this year with a 31.4% target share, a 36.6% air-yard share, 2.95 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. The biggest question of this game is, "Does San Francisco lean on their year's Cover 3 and Cover 4 beater or last year's?" It is a coin flip. My gut tells me it is Aiyuk, as this is a wonderful opportunity to get him going, but it could easily be Samuel. Arizona's outside corners have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target this season. Samuel will run about 52% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (61.5% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating).
|
|
22.
DK Metcalf
WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
A third straight 100-yard performance was not enough to keep DK Metcalf in the top 24 from a fantasy perspective last week. Metcalf lost a fumble and was tackled just short of the goal line on a would-be touchdown. Metcalf's recent hot streak is a bit inflated by a massive jump in Seattle's pass attempts in recent weeks. Geno Smith has attempted 134 passes in his last three games. That does not feel sustainable, but it is hard to question that Metcalf is the leader of a solid wide receiver corps. The New York Giants rank 24th in pass defense DVOA including 28th against opposing teams' top receivers. Even if Metcalf sees fewer targets than he has in recent weeks, he is a solid WR1.
|
|
23.
D'Andre Swift
RB - CHI (vs . CAR)
Last week taught us simply to start all your running backs against the Rams this season. Before Week 4, Swift hadn't had more than 30 rushing yards or 24 receiving yards in any game this season. Last week, he played 63% of the snaps with 23 touches and 165 total yards as the RB3 for the week. Swift played better last week with a 25% missed tackle rate, but his 1.50 yards after contact per attempt is more telling. The wonderful matchup last week really helped him, as he had 4.3 yards before contact per attempt. He legit was able to chew up four yards per carry before encountering any resistance. Overall, among 53 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 27th in explosive run rate, 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 53rd in yards after contact per attempt. Carolina offers another juicy matchup for Swift to pad his stats this week. Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Swift 57% zone).
|
|
24.
De'Von Achane
RB - MIA (at NE)
It has been a tough road for Achane without Tua Tagovailoa. Over the last two weeks, he has played at least 73% of the snaps in each game while averaging 13.5 touches and 45.5 total yards. He has had RB33 and RB45 weekly finishes in PPR scoring. Achane also hasn't been breaking tackles anywhere close to how he was last year. Among 53 qualifying backs, Achane has ranked 27th in explosive run rate, 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 47th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line hasn't done him any favors, with the tenth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Achane has another tough matchup this week. New England might be a dumpster fire in many respects, but their run defense has been good. They have held rushers to the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest rushing yards per game, and the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate.
|
|
25.
Jerome Ford
RB - CLE (at WAS)
Ford has been the Browns' clear workhorse in three of four games this season, with at least a 75% snap rate. In those three games, Ford has averaged 16 touches and 74.6 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Ford ranks 20th in explosive run rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. He could be the engine for the Browns offense in Week 5. Washington has not only been terrible at defending passing games. They can't stop the run. The Commanders have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while giving up the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.
|
|
26.
Mike Evans
WR - TB (at ATL)
Mike Evans finally received the type of usage last week that fantasy managers had been clamoring for. After being targeted just 15 times through Tampa's first three games, Evans saw 14 targets last week. He parlayed that into a WR6 weekly finish. Evans has lacked the weekly consistency of his teammate, Chris Godwin. But Evans possesses touchdown upside that is not easy to come across at the wide receiver position. That makes it difficult to consider benching Evans under most conditions. Even though Godwin should face the better individual matchup in the slot, Evans is still a worthy WR1 candidate this week.
|
|
27.
Kareem Hunt
RB - KC (vs . NO)
Hunt took over as the team's leadback last week. He played 45% of the snaps with 16 touches and 85 total yards. Hunt led the way with a 58.3% snap share on rushing plays and split the red zone snaps with Perine (50% for each player). He conceded the passing game work to Perine with only a 32.4% passing down snapshare. Hunt looked good in his first game back, with a 21% missed tackle rate and 2.71 yards after contact per attempt. We'll see if he can maintain that level of tackle-breaking as the volume piles up. Hunt has a decent matchup this week against the Saints, who have allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while also surrendering the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt. The Chiefs' offensive line has done a decent job of opening up room for the backs, ranking 14th-best in yards before contact per attempt.
|
|
28.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR - ARI (at SF)
Harrison Jr. is the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 25% target share, a 43.8% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. Harrison Jr. leads the team with six end-zone targets. The 49ers have utilized single-high on 54.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Harrison has been a target hog with a 31.9% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, 3.30 YPRR, and a 34.3% first-read share. Harrison Jr. will run about 80% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (52.6% catch rate and 92.2 passer rating), Isaac Yiadom (71.4% catch rate and 122.0 passer rating), and Renardo Green (only one career target in his coverage).
|
|
29.
Zack Moss
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Moss is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, but Week 4 saw the rug get pulled out from under him as Chase Brown was more involved. It was the first game that Moss played less than 65% of the snaps (60%). Moos still finished with 19 touches and 78 total yards. In Week 4, he saw his rushing snap rate fall from 71.2% (in Weeks 1-3) to 50%, and his red zone snap rate plummet to 36.4% (Brown 63.6%). Moss hasn't been overly impressive on a per-touch basis. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. This is a horrible matchup for Moss. Baltimore has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
|
|
30.
Trey Sermon
RB - IND (at JAC)
|
|
31.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB (at ATL)
Chris Godwin had a quiet day by his standards last week but still finished as a WR3 in 12-team leagues. Godwin is one of four wideouts (Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, and Justin Jefferson being the others) who have finished inside the top 36 in Half-PPR scoring in every single week thus far. That should be the baseline for Godwin's Week 5 outlook. The Atlanta Falcons are in the middle of the pack in most defensive metrics. Therefore, there is not much that is overly concerning about this matchup. Continue to roll out Chris Godwin as a wideout with a very high weekly floor in Week 5.
|
|
32.
Diontae Johnson
WR - CAR (at CHI)
With Dalton under center, Johnson has been cooking with a 32.1% target share, a 57.2% air-yard share, 2.89 YPRR, and 43.1% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has been the WR3 in fantasy points per game. In just those two games, he has seen an insane six end-zone targets. Chicago has the tenth-highest single high rate (56.5%). Since Week 3 against single-high, Johnson has seen his target share balloon to 38.3% with a 69.7% air-yard share, 3.45 YPRR, and a 50% first-read share. Chicago will be a formidable challenge for Johnson. The Bears have allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Johnson will run about 85% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (53.8% catch rate and 40.1 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (58.6% catch rate and 79.0 passer rating).
|
|
33.
Drake London
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
London has been seeing a massive amount of volume as the clear WR1 for Atlanta. He has a 26.1% target share, a 37.1% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share as the WR31 in fantasy. He leads the Falcons with three end-zone targets. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, London's volume and efficiency metrics have stayed stable near his overall output, while his first-read share has crept up to 38.6%. London will have to overcome a tough Week 5 matchup with volume. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. London will run about 65% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).
|
|
34.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
Aiyuk has disappointed so far this season as the WR67 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn a 19.7% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, and a 21.8% first-read share while producing 1.34 YPRR. I'm not worried about Aiyuk at all, though. His per-route metrics are still amazing, and better days are ahead. Among 111 wide receivers, he ranks fifth in separation and first in route win rate. Arizona has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.5% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Aiyuk has only a 17.4% target share, a 17.1% air-yard share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. That first-read rate is second on the team, behind only Deebo Samuel. Working in Aiyuk's favor is the fact that Arizona's outside corners have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target this season. Last year, Aiyuk was the team's go-to receiver against Cover 3 and Cover 4, with a team-leading 24.4% target share, 3.31 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Aiyuk will run about 84% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (61.5% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating). The big Aiyuk game could happen in Week 5.
|
|
35.
George Pickens
WR - PIT (vs . DAL)
Pickens is the WR38 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn't tell the entire story, as he has two top 24 weekly finishes (WR24, WR22). He has drawn a whopping 26.6% target share, a 54.7% air-yard share, and a 35.3% first-read share with 2.63 YPRR. Pickens is tied for seventh in the NFL in red zone targets with D.J. Moore and Drake London. Dallas has utilized single-high with 56.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Pickens' volume has exploded with a 36.2% target share, a 64% air-yard share, a 52.6% first-read share and 3.08 YPRR. Dallas has allowed the 14th-highest PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Pickens should enjoy another huge game in Week 5.
|
|
36.
Amari Cooper
WR - CLE (at WAS)
Cooper is the WR46 in fantasy points per game, and much of that was scored against the Giants in Week 3. Outside of his eruption game against New York, Cooper hasn't surpassed eight PPR points in any week. Cooper continues to soak up the volume, though, with a 25% target share, a 46.8% air-yard share, and a 30.2% first-read share despite producing just 0.92 YPRR and 37 receiving yards per game. Cooper is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with three. The Commanders have the fifth-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.6%). Against two high, Cooper's target share and first-read shares have dipped to 15.4% and 16.3%. Washington has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, but it is questionable if Cooper will take advantage in Week 5.
|
|
37.
Garrett Wilson
WR - NYJ (at MIN)
Wilson has had a tough run to open the season. Whether it has been defenses scheming up to stop him, Wilson receiving tough shadow coverage, or him and Rodgers not syncing up, it has been rough. Wilson is the WR43 in fantasy points per game despite a 25% target share, a 34% air-yard share, and a 31.2% first-read share. Wilson has produced only 47.8 receiving yards per game and 1.36 YPRR. Wilson is tied with Allen Lazard for the team lead with five red zone targets. This week doesn't look any more promising. Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Wilson will run about 61% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (77.3% catch rate and 92.6 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (47.1% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).
|
|
38.
Chris Olave
WR - NO (at KC)
Olave is the WR26 in fantasy points per game, and since Week 2, he's been leading the way for New Orleans. He leads the team with a 27.3% target share and 3.58 YPRR while ranking second to only Rashid Shaheed in air-yard share (43.2% vs. 52.6%) and first-read share (34% vs. 36%). Olave and Shaheed are tied for the team lead with two red zone targets. Kansas City has the second-highest two-high rate (65.4%). The Saints' attack plan for two-high has been equal measured doses of Olave and Shaheed. Their usage versus two-high is nearly identical. Olave has a 23.8% target share, a 38.6% air-yard share, 3.08 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share against two-high. Against two-high, Shaheed has a 23.8% target share, a 55.8% air-yard share, 3.03 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share. This is a tough matchup for both players, but they have been so good against two-high that they could both easily succeed. Kansas City has allowed the tenth-lowest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
39.
Javonte Williams
RB - DEN (vs . LV)
Williams is a solid volume-based flex this week. He has played at least 51% of the snaps weekly, averaging 13 touches and 52.3 total yards. Unfortunately, his tackle-breaking juice is seemingly gone. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. The Raiders have proven that they can't stop anyone on the ground, though. They have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt, and rushing yards per game.
|
|
40.
Stefon Diggs
WR - HOU (vs . BUF)
Diggs might not be in his prime anymore, but he still has been good this season as the WR11 in fantasy points per game. Diggs has a 21.1% target share, 1.64 YPRR (6.9 aDOT), and a 25.5% first-read share. He's second on the team in red zone targets. His old team, the Bills, have the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (60.3%). Against two high, Diggs has seen his target share fall to 19.4% and his YPRR slip to 1.42. Passing attacks have been shying away from testing Buffalo's outside corners as the Bills have faced the second-most slot targets and allowed the fourth-most receptions to slot receivers. Buffalo hasn't allowed slot receivers to do much with the volume, though, as they are 16th in receiving yards allowed to slots. Buffalo has allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Diggs could see a lot of volume this week, but it's questionable what he's able to produce with it.
|
|
41.
DJ Moore
WR - CHI (vs . CAR)
Moore has been held down by the lackluster play of Williams thus far this season. Moore is the WR33 in fantasy points per game with a 24.1% target share, a 30.5% air-yard share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share. Moore ranks seventh in NFL in red zone targets (tied). He faces his former team, which is third in single-high rate (68.8%). Against single-high, Moore's target share has increased to 25.3%, and his first-read share has jumped to 34.5%. Carolina has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Moore will run about 82% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (60% catch rate and 73.8 passer rating) and Mike Jackson (63.3% catch rate and 82.2 passer rating).
|
|
42.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Since his return to the lineup, Higgins has had a 21.7% target share, 1.52 YPRR, and a 31% first-read share (leads the team). He also led the team over the last two games with two end-zone targets. Over the last two weeks, Baltimore is fifth in two-high usage (55.1%). Over the last two weeks, Higgins ranks second on the team with a 16.3% target, fourth in TPRR (18%), and tied for first in first-read share (22.2%) against two-high. Higgins will run about 82% of his routes against Brandon Stephens (54.2% catch rate and 84.7 passer rating) and Nate Wiggins (75% catch rate and 110.4 passer rating). Baltimore has allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
43.
Alexander Mattison
RB - LV (at DEN)
Mattison should be the Raiders' workhorse this week with White out. Mattison has averaged 6.1 touches and 41.8 total yards this season as his snapshare has fluctuated from 22-60%. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. While he has 5.1 yards per carry this season, don't let that fool you. His tackle-breaking ability hasn't improved. He has been solid in a small sample in the passing game. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in YPRR. Denver is a middle-of-the-road matchup at best on the ground for Mattison. Denver has held running backs to the sixth-lowest rushing success rate and the 13th-lowest explosive run rate despite ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt.
|
|
44.
Dontayvion Wicks
WR - GB (at LAR)
Last week Wicks blew up after Christian Watson was sidelined with an injury. He finished as the WR3 in fantasy, drawing a 24.1% target share, a 40.3% air-yard share, and a 30.6% first-read share with 1.86 YPRR. He led the team with four end-zone targets. He was fantastic. In Week 5, he should destroy the Rams secondary. The Rams utilize single-high at the seventh-highest rate (57.9%). Against single-high, Wicks leads the team with a 33% TPRR and ranks second to only Jayden Reed with 2.70 YPRR. Last year, he logged a 22% TPRR and 2.10 YPRR against single-high. Wicks will run about 66% of his routes against Tre'Davious White (69.2% catch rate and 147.8 passer rating) and Cobie Durant (56.3% catch rate and 70.3 passer rating). The Rams have allowed the highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
45.
Zay Flowers
WR - BAL (at CIN)
Flowers still leads the Baltimore passing attack with a 23.9% target share and a 29% first-read share despite only producing 1.41 YPRR. Flowers has averaged only 39.5 receiving yards per game, and his puny 7.4 aDOT can be partially to blame. There's hope this week that he can create some big plays and yards after the catch against a defense that has allowed the 13th-most missed tackles. Cincy has the seventh-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single high, Flowers has seen his target share jump to 27.3% and his YPRR increase to 1.57. Since Week 3, Cincy has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
46.
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
Thomas Jr. has hit the ground running in his rookie season as the WR20 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, after Kirk's reintegration into this passing attack, Thomas Jr. has had a 22.8% target share, a 28% air-yard share, 2.06 YPRR, and a 27.2% first-read share. Indy has the 12th-highest single-high rate (56.2%). Over the last two weeks against single-high, Thomas Jr. has led the team with a 28.6% target share, a 32.8% air-yard share, 3.18 YPRR, and ranked second with a 30.3% first-read share. Thomas Jr. will run about 78% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (64% catch rate and 60.6 passer rating) and Samuel Womack lll (66.7% catch rate and 122.2 passer rating). Indy has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
47.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND (at JAC)
Pittman has limped out the gate as the WR55 in fantasy points per game. Richardson has been a big part of the problem, but Pittman has still seen a 28.2% target share, a 27.8% air-yard share, and a 31.9% first-read share with 2.12 YPRR. Pittman leads the team with three red zone targets, and he's gotten involved in the deep passing game (four targets, third on the team). Over the last two weeks, Jacksonville has flipped their defensive approach with the fifth-highest two-high rate (55.6%). Since Josh Downs' return, Pittman ranks first in target share (23.8%, tied with Downs), first in YPRR (2.47), and second in first-read share (26.7%) against two-high. Pittman will run about 78% of his routes against Ronald Darby (79.2% catch rate and 132.1 passer rating) and Montaric Brown (63% catch rate and 90.2 passer rating). Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
48.
Rachaad White
RB - TB (at ATL)
White saw his role change in Week 4. Yes, maybe this was because of the food poisoning he was dealing with last weekend, but it also could be related to his relative ineffectiveness so far this season. Last week was the first time his snapshare has dropped below 70% this season (58%). White had 12 touches and 84 total yards. He had a near-even split with Bucky Irving on the rushing play snaps (54% vs. 50%) while he still dominated the passing down snaps (64%). White did lose the red zone battle with only a 40% snapshare (Irving, 67%). Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate, 39th in yards after contact per attempt, and he has the sixth-highest stuff rate. Atlanta hasn't been an easy team to run on this year, allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (White 68% zone).
|
|
49.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC (vs . NO)
After averaging just 23 receiving yards per game through the first three weeks, Travis Kelce finally broke through last week with an 89-yard effort. Of seemingly greater import is the injury to star wide receiver Rashee Rice. We are still waiting for a definitive word on the severity of the injury. But Kelce may have to reclaim his spot as Patrick Mahomes' top weapon. That puts him back in the overall TE1 conversation, especially given the inconsistency at the position, as well as players like Dallas Goedert and Sam LaPorta having a bye this week.
|
|
50.
Bucky Irving
RB - TB (at ATL)
|
|
51.
Tyreek Hill
WR - MIA (at NE)
Last week, with Huntley under center, Hill had a 31.8% target share, a 76.2% air-yard share, 1.28 YPRR, and a 38.9% first-read share. Hill remained the number one option in this passing attack and the downfield option with an 18.3 aDOT. Hill likely sees shadow coverage this week from Christian Gonzalez (60% catch rate and 80.6 passer rating), who has followed Ja'Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Brandon Aiyuk on 54-90% of their routes. Only Metcalf surpassed 33 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Hill is fourth on the team in red zone targets with two. New England has the sixth-highest rate of two high (52.3%). Against two high, Hill leads the team with a 26% TPRR and a 25.4% first-read share while ranking second in YPRR with 2.11.
|
|
52.
Xavier Worthy
WR - KC (vs . NO)
After losing Rashee Rice to injury, Kansas City will be forced to lean more on Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy. Overall, he has an 11.6% target share, a 28.4% air-yard share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share. Last week, after Rice was sidelined, Worthy's route share bumped up to 82% while he had a 12.5% target share, a 36.7% air-yard share, and a 23.1% first-read share (second to only Kelce). Over the last three weeks, New Orleans has the eighth-highest two-high rate (50.4%). Against two-high, Worthy's market share has stayed stable with his overall numbers, but his YPRR has jumped to 2.20, and his first-read share has increased to 19.4%. Worthy could have a strong game this week. New Orleans has held perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-lowest PPR points per target while also surrendering the most receiving yards per game. Mahomes will lean on Worthy and Kelce.
|
|
53.
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
Stevenson is the RB26 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.6 touches and 75 total yards. He has languished over the last two weeks in poor game scripts in blowouts. He is running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, which ranks fifth-lowest in yards before contact per attempt. The things that Stevenson can control ie. breaking tackles, he has done extremely well. Among 53 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Every week is just an uphill battle for him. This, unfortunately, is the case for Stevenson again this week. Miami has allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest rushing success rate, and has the fourth-best stuff rate. Stevenson gets bumped down a peg this week as the team announced he will not be starting in Week 5 as punishment for his fumbling issues (four fumbles this season). We'll see how long the team will sideline arguably their best offensive player this week. This feels like an overreaction for a player who has only seven fumbles across his three previous NFL seasons. Stevenson is an RB3 this week.
|
|
54.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS (vs . CLE)
McLaurin is the WR31 in fantasy points per game, demanding a 25.5% target share, a 54% air-yard share, and a 31.6% first-read share while producing 1.74 YPRR. Cleveland has the highest single-high rate in the NFL (74.3%). Among 78 qualifying receivers, McLaurin ranks 40th in TPRR and 39th in route win rate against single-high. Cleveland has allowed the 12th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, but McLaurin could quietly be headed toward a solid Week 5. Kliff Kingsbury keeps McLaurin planted as the left wide receiver in formations, which will work in his favor this week. McLaurin will run about 77% of his routes against Martin Emerson Jr.(65% catch rate and 120.4 passer rating), who has been the weak link in Cleveland's pass defense.
|
|
55.
Rashid Shaheed
WR - NO (at KC)
Shaheed is the WR28 in fantasy points per game, and since Week 2, he's been Olave's running mate. Over the last three games, Shaheed has had a 26% target share, a 52.6% air-yard share, 2.56 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. Shaheed is tied with Olave for the team lead in red zone targets. Kansas City has the second-highest two-high rate (65.4%). The Saints' attack plan for two-high has been equal measured doses of Olave and Shaheed. Their usage versus two-high is nearly identical. Olave has a 23.8% target share, a 38.6% air-yard share, 3.08 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share against two-high. Against two-high, Shaheed has a 23.8% target share, a 55.8% air-yard share, 3.03 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share. This is a tough matchup for both players, but they have been so good against two-high that they could both easily succeed. Kansas City has allowed the tenth-lowest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
56.
Rico Dowdle
RB - DAL (at PIT)
Over the last two weeks, Dowdle has slowly earned more work in this backfield. He has led the way with a 53% snap share on rushing plays while playing 43.4% of the passing down snaps and logging a 55.6% snap rate inside the red zone. Dowdle has averaged 11.5 touches and 58.5 total yards. In that same period, among 40 qualifying backs, he has shown some tackle-breaking hope, ranking 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. With all that said, Dowdle is a touchdown-dependent flex this week. Pittsburgh has kept backs in check, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing yards per game, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
|
|
57.
George Kittle
TE - SF (vs . ARI)
George Kittle is the lone tight end who has finished inside the top 10 in each game he has played this season. But therein lies the rub. Kittle has already missed one game this season and now enters Week 5 questionable with a rib injury. He missed practice on Wednesday as a result of the injury. With San Francisco hosting a game in the late window on Sunday afternoon, fantasy managers may have to seek out a backup plan in case Kittle misses this game. The Arizona Cardinals have been better than expected at limiting tight end production. However, if George Kittle can suit up, he should be started in all leagues.
|
|
58.
Christian Kirk
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
In Week 3, Dougie P woke up and realized that Kirk should be featured more in the game plan. Since that time, he has had a 27.8% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 2.06 YPRR, and a team-leading 36.4% first-read share. Kirk is tied for second on the team in red zone targets (two) and tied for the team lead with six deep targets. Indy has the 12th-highest single-high rate (56.2%). Over the last two weeks, Kirk is second on the team with a 28.6% target share, has 1.71 YPRR, and leads the team with a 33.3% first-read share against single-high. Indy has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Kirk will run about 84% of his routes against Chris Lammons (83.3% catch rate and 115.3 passer rating).
|
|
59.
Cam Akers
RB - HOU (vs . BUF)
Akers has been Houstonâs starting back for the last two weeks, playing 40-43% of the snaps while averaging 11.5 touches and 41 total yards. Heâll be the Texansâ starting tailback again this week in a wonderful matchup for Houston to bump up his rushing usage. Over the last two games, Akers has played 69.7% of the snaps on rushing plays, but sadly, only 27.3% of the snaps in the red zone (Dare Ogunbowale 59.1%). Weâll see if Akersâ red zone usage bumps up this week or if Ogunbowale continues to steal high-leverage snaps. Akers has been surprisingly efficient with his rushing work this season. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth with a whopping 29% missed tackle rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.24). Weâve seen Houston lean heavily into their run game when the matchup presents itself. Well, thatâs the case here against the Bills. The Bills have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
|
|
60.
Courtland Sutton
WR - DEN (vs . LV)
Sutton was the only Denver receiving option to log at least an 80% route share in Week 4. Sutton is the WR47 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 25.4% target share, a 49% air-yard share, and a 32.6% first-read share with 1.57 YPRR. Sutton is tied with Diontae Johnson for the most red zone targets in the NFL. The Raiders have the ninth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (49.7%). Against two-high, Sutton has seen his numbers jump even higher with a 29.5% target share, a 67.3% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. Sutton will run about 81% of his routes against Jack Jones (66.7% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating) and Jakorian Bennett (40% catch rate and 55.1 passer rating).
|
|
61.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RB - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
62.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
Smith-Njigba has seen his target volume level out after Week 4. He has a 20.8% target share, 1.52 YPRR, and a 21.6% first-read share as Seattle's WR2 and the WR33 in fantasy. Smith-Njigba is second on the team in deep targets and has seen one red zone target. New York has the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59%). Against single-high, Smith-Njigba has seen his first-read share increase to 25% while the rest of his metrics mirror his overall numbers. The Giants have been relatively untested against slot receivers facing the third-fewest slot targets in the NFL. He will run about 87% of his routes against Cor'Dale Flott, who has been a turnstile, allowing an 81.3% catch rate and 128.4 passer rating. Smith-Njigba should be busy again this week.
|
|
63.
Jake Ferguson
TE - DAL (at PIT)
Ferguson is the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying tight ends, he ranks third in target share (20.9%), fourth in YPRR (2.01) and receiving yards per game (53), and fourth in first-read share (19.8%). Ferguson hasn't drawn a red zone target yet. Temper your expectations for Ferguson this week. The Steelers have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards and the fifth-lowest yards per reception to tight ends.
|
|
64.
Darnell Mooney
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
Mooney is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with two top 36 weekly finishes (WR18, WR36) this season. He has drawn a 19.3% target share with a 32.9% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a strong 24.3% first-read share. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, his target share has dropped slightly to 17.6%, and his YPRR has cratered (0.94). Mooney is best left on the bench this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Mooney will run about 58% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).
|
|
65.
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR - NYG (at SEA)
With Malik Nabers out, Robinson should operate as the Giants WR1 this week. Robinson is the WR28 in fantasy points per game with three WR3 or better outings this season (WR31, WR35, WR17). Robinson has been a volume magnet with a 25.5% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 26.5% first-read share. Robinson leads the Giants in red zone targets and is tied for the second-most red zone targets in the NFL. Seattle has the ninth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (57.0%). Against single-high, his target share and YPRR have increased to 27.1% and 1.95. Robinson has a tough slot matchup this week as Seattle has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Robinson will run about 80% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (72.2% catch rate and 90.3 passer rating).
|
|
66.
Josh Downs
WR - IND (at JAC)
Since his return to the lineup, Downs is tied with Pittman for the team lead in target share (28%) while posting 2.67 YPRR and a 37.8% first-read share (first on the team). Over the last two weeks, Jacksonville has flipped their defensive approach with the fifth-highest two-high rate (55.6%). Since Week 3, against two-high, Downs has tied Pittman in target share (23.8%), ranked second in YPRR (1.94), and led the team in first-read share (33.3%). Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the ninth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Downs will run about 95% of his routes against Jarrian Jones (78.6% catch rate and 111.6 passer rating).
|
|
67.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - CLE (at WAS)
Jeudy has been a WR3 in weekly fantasy scoring in three of his four games this season (WR33, WR27, WR31). He has a 19.6% target share, a 33.2% air-yard share, 1.26 YPRR, and a 21.7% first-read share. Jeudy is tied for the team lead with three red zone targets. The Cleveland passing volume should lean towards Jeudy this week against Washington's two high coverage scheme (fifth-highest rate, 60.6%). Against two high, Jeudy has seen his YPRR increase to 1.55 and his first-read share bump to 23.3%. Washington has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jeudy could finally register his first WR2 fantasy scoring week in Week 5.
|
|
68.
Tank Dell
WR - HOU (vs . BUF)
Dell will be back this week. He has been listed with no injury designation. He has only a 14.3% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 1.01 YPRR, and a 13.5% first-read share. Dell has one end-zone target and two red-zone looks this season. Buffalo has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Dell this week.
|
|
69.
Chase Brown
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Last week Brown played a season-high 40% of snaps producing 92 total yards and two scores with his 17 touches. He ate into Moss's workload with a 50% rushing play snap rate and a 67% red zone snap rate. Brown has been lightning in a bottle. When he has received touches, he has made the most of his opportunities. Among 55 qualifying backs, Brown ranks 13th in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, he's tasked with a horrendous matchup for Week 5. Baltimore has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
|
|
70.
Tutu Atwell
WR - LAR (vs . GB)
Last week, Atwell was third on the team with a 17.2% target share while leading the way with a 36.7% air-yard share, 3.28 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Atwell has drawn one red zone target this season. Green Bay has the 11th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (56.2%). Since Week 2, against single-high, he ranks second on the team with a 24% TPRR and leads the team with 4.16 YPRR and a 31% first-read share. Atwell should be the WR1B in the Rams' offense this week. Green Bay has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
71.
Braelon Allen
RB - NYJ (at MIN)
Allen has played 32-36% of the snaps weekly, averaging 10.7 touches and 56.7 total yards. Allen is the RB37 in fantasy points per game. He has been extremely efficient with his touches, ranking fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Despite that fact, this isn't a week to consider flexing Allen. Minnesota has been incredible as a run defense, allowing the lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-fewest rushing yards per game.
|
|
72.
Jordan Whittington
WR - LAR (vs . GB)
Last week, in his first full starting opportunity, Whittington had a 27.6% target share, a 29% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share (third on the team). He had one end-zone target. Green Bay has the 11th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (56.2%). Since Week 2, against single-high, Whittington ranks first on the team with a 30% TPRR and second with 2.24 YPRR. Whittington could lead the team in targets in Week 5 as Stafford's WR1. Green Bay has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
73.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - LV (at DEN)
Last week, without Adams in the lineup, Meyers had a 41.7% target share, a 53% air-yard share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 45% first-read share. How much does all of this volume matter in Week 5? Very little. Without Adams in the lineup again this week, Meyers will be shadowed by Patrick Surtain, who is a coffin nail for his fantasy value. Surtain has followed D.K. Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Garrett Wilson this season on 60-95% of their routes, and none of them eclipsed 30 receiving yards in his coverage. Sit Meyers this week.
|
|
74.
Tyler Allgeier
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
Allgeier is a viable flex this week. Last week, he played a season-high 38% of the snaps with ten touches and 80 total yards. Overall this season, Allgeier is tied with Bijan Robinson with six red zone rushing attempts. Among 55 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 11th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Atlanta should lean on their ground game this week against the Bucs. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL. Don't be surprised if Allgeier finishes the week as a low-end RB2 (if he gets into the end zone).
|
|
75.
Antonio Gibson
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
76.
Xavier Legette
WR - CAR (at CHI)
Last week Legette finally got unleashed as a full-time player in the Panthers' offense. He had an 81.4% route share, a 24.4% target share, a 33.8% air-yard share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 31% first-read share. Last week, among 74 qualifying receivers, Legette ranked 15th in separation and 12th in route win rate. It was a wonderful breakout game for a talented rookie who could use this as a springboard to a solid rest of the 2024 season. Chicago has the tenth-highest single-high rate (56.5%). Against single-high, Legette ranks second on the team with a 20% TPRR and 2.19 YPRR. Legette will have a tough matchup this week, so we'll see how he responds. The Bears have allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Johnson will run about 63% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (53.8% catch rate and 40.1 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (58.6% catch rate and 79.0 passer rating).
|
|
77.
Keenan Allen
WR - CHI (vs . CAR)
Last week, Allen returned to the lineup with a 69% route share, a 13% target share, 1.06 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. Last week, Williams was locked onto D.J. Moore (42.9% first-read share) and no one else. Hopefully, Allen can bounce back this week, but it's tough to trust him and to be honest, it's not really an Allen thing. It's the fact that Williams isn't playing well enough to support one receiver weekly, much less 2-3 wide receivers. Carolina is third in single-high rate (68.8%). Against single-high, Allen has a 23.3% target share and a 28.6% first-read share. The Panthers have been tougher against slot receivers, ranking 15th in PPR points per target and allowing the 12th-lowest passer rating when targeted. Allen will run about 56% of his routes against Troy Hill (88.9% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating).
|
|
78.
Trey McBride
TE - ARI (at SF)
Trey McBride is also questionable for Sunday's game in San Francisco. McBride is still recovering from a concussion that cost him last week's contest. McBride took part in a limited practice on Wednesday, which hopefully is a good sign. He still has some hurdles to clear before he is given the go-ahead to suit up on Sunday. But even in a tough matchup, McBride has bankable volume that makes him a weekly start.
|
|
79.
Jordan Addison
WR - MIN (vs . NYJ)
Last week, Addison made his return to the lineup and was very efficient with his work. He had a 69.7% route share, a 14.3% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, 3.13 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. He scored two touchdowns (one through the air and a rushing score). I can't count on Addison to continue that type of efficiency with his limited volume this week. The Jets have allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Addison will run about 69% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (70% catch rate and 137.9 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (36.4% catch rate and 44.9 passer rating).
|
|
80.
Brock Bowers
TE - LV (at DEN)
Just when it looked like Brock Bowers was on the cusp of taking the mantle of TE1, the rookie posted an unseemly 2-19-0 line. And in a game without Davante Adams no less. This is why we cannot have nice things. Tight ends just appear to be destined to deal with massive bouts of weekly inconsistency. Fantasy managers will hope for better days ahead in Week 5 when Bowers faces the Denver Broncos. Adams will be out once again for the Raiders, and rumors are swirling that his time in Las Vegas may soon come to an end. That means Bowers' volume will likely be more consistent going forward. Despite last week's blip, fantasy managers should continue to start the rookie in all formats.
|
|
81.
Jauan Jennings
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
82.
Rome Odunze
WR - CHI (vs . CAR)
Odunze isn't playable in fantasy right now. In Allen's two active games this season, Odunze has had only an 11.5% target share, a 21.5% air-yard share, and an 8.8% first-read share. He's been an afterthought in a passing offense led by a struggling rookie quarterback. Until Williams reverses course, Odunze is tough to fit into any fantasy lineup.
|
|
83.
Jaylen Waddle
WR - MIA (at NE)
If Hill is getting shadow treatment from Gonzalez this week, Waddle could lead the way through the air for Miami. Last week with Huntley, Waddle had a 27.3% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. New England has the sixth-highest rate of two high (52.3%). Against two high, Waddle ranks third on the team in TPRR (20%), first in YPRR (2.40), and second in first-read share (18.6%). With Gonzalez stuck to Hill, Waddle will tangle with Jonathan Jones (66.7% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (career: 69.6% catch rate and 115.7 passer rating) for most of the day. New England has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
84.
Dalton Kincaid
TE - BUF (at HOU)
Dalton Kincaid has not cleared 50 yards in a game and has finished as a top-12 tight end just once in four games. And yet he enters Week 5 seventh among all tight ends in total fantasy points. Such is the current state of the tight end position in 2024. Kincaid has not been bad by any means. But Josh Allen has thrown the ball just 101 times this year. On a per-pass attempt basis, Kincaid's numbers are slightly improved over his rookie campaign. While the Bills are expected to rely more on the pass in a Week 5 game against Houston, the matchup could not be much more difficult for Kincaid. Houston has given up a total of 49 yards this season to opposing tight ends. Fantasy managers should still start Kincaid in most situations, but he is no sure thing.
|
|
85.
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
Lockett has become the definitive WR3 for Seattle. He has a 15.1% target share, an 18.3% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 17.6% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with two red zone targets. New York has the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59%). Against single-high, his numbers have fallen with a 12.7% target share, 1.16 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share. Sit Lockett this week.
|
|
86.
Tre Tucker
WR - LV (at DEN)
Last week without Adams, Tucker had a 25% target share, an 18.4% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share. He's likely to see substantial volume again this week with Meyers locked up with Surtain. This means Tucker will match up with Riley Moss (64% catch rate and 92.9 passer rating) for most of the day. Denver is fifth in single-high rate (57.9%). Tucker's numbers against single-high aren't great, as he has logged a 13% TPRR and only 1.05 YPRR. Tucker does hold some deep PPR league flex appeal if you're in a pinch.
|
|
87.
Keon Coleman
WR - BUF (at HOU)
Coleman saw his route share increase last week to 67.6% as he had a 12.9% target share, a 26.6% air-yard share, 2.04 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. Houston has the fourth-highest single-high rate (66.1%). Against single-high, Coleman is fifth on the Bills in TPRR (15%), second in YPRR (2.02), and third in first-read share (15%). Coleman will run about 96% of his routes against Derek Stingley Jr. (60% catch rate and 53.8 passer rating) and Kamari Lassiter (41.2% catch rate and 42.0 passer rating). Houston has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to perimeter receivers, but they haven't allowed them to do much with the volume, with the eighth-lowest PPR points per target given up.
|
|
88.
Tucker Kraft
TE - GB (at LAR)
Last week, with Love back, Kraft had an 84% route share, a 13% target share, 1.13 YPRR, 53 receiving yards, and an 11.1% first-read share. Overall, this season, Kraft is the TE12 in fantasy points per game. Kraft is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with four. Kraft is a low-end TE1 this week against a Rams pass defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
|
|
89.
Gabe Davis
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
Over the last two games, Jacksonville's passing attack has been extremely consolidated, leaving Davis on the outside looking in. He has had only a 13.9% target share, a 19.4% air-yard share, 0.25 YPRR, and a 12.7% first-read share. He has averaged only eight receiving yards per game. At this juncture, Davis is droppable.
|
|
90.
Allen Lazard
WR - NYJ (at MIN)
Lazard has surprised this season as the WR24 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for the team lead in red zone targets while also registering a 17.6% target share, a 23.5% air-yard share, 1.66 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (78.6%). Against two high, Lazard has seen his target share and first-read shares increase to 19.4% and 24.4%. He leads the team in FD/RR against two high (0.095). With all that said, he also has a tough matchup this week, so temper your expectations. Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Lazard will run about 56% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (77.3% catch rate and 92.6 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (47.1% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).
|
|
91.
Justice Hill
RB - BAL (at CIN)
Hill has been a viable flex this season, averaging 7.5 touches and 59.3 total yards per game. The bulk of that has come through the air, as Hill has averaged four receptions and 40.3 receiving yards per game. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hill ranks fifth in target share (15.6%), third in YPRR, and fourth in receiving yards per game. Cincy has allowed the ninth-most receptions to running backs this season.
|
|
92.
Tank Bigsby
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
Bigsby qualifies as a deep league flex play this week. He has played 29-32% of the snaps in two games this season, averaging 10.5 rushing attempts and 82.5 rushing yards. In those two games, he has only managed a 21.4% snap rate inside the red zone, so if he scores, it will likely have to be on a long run. Among 53 qualifying backs, Bigsby ranks first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Indy is 15th in stuff rate, has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, and has given up the 10th-highest yards before contact per attempt. They have also struggled to defend gap runs, giving up the 13th-highest yards per carry and the 12th-highest success rate (Bigsby 66.7% gap).
|
|
93.
Roschon Johnson
RB - CHI (vs . CAR)
Last week's "extended look" at Roschon Johnson looked eerily similar to Week 3. Johnson didn't see an expanded role in the offense, as he had the exact same snap rate (37%) while handling seven touches and producing 26 rushing yards. Swift took back the red zone snap lead, too (54.5% vs. 45.5%). We found out last year that this coaching staff can't be trusted with running back usage and reporting. Well, it remains early in the 2024 season, but once again, we have been "Eberflused." Johnson rolls back into the desperation flex play or RB3 area code. Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
|
|
94.
Austin Ekeler
RB - WAS (vs . CLE)
Ekeler has cleared the concussion protocol. He could be the Commandersâ starting running back in Week 5 if Robinson Jr. canât go. If Robinson Jr. is out, Ekeler could be a bell-cow, only coming off the field for a breather here and there with Jeremy McNichols filling in. Ekeler has been serviceable on early downs with a 15% missed tackle rate and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt. While his rushing prowess has been passable, his receiving ability remains top-shelf. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks second in YPRR, third in receiving yards per game, and tenth in TPRR. If Robinson Jr. is out, Ekeler is a volume-based RB2. If Robinson Jr. plays, Ekeler is an RB3. Cleveland has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-most rushing yards per game. They have shut down receiving backs, giving up the 13th-lowest yards per reception and the fifth-fewest receptions.
|
|
95.
Michael Wilson
WR - ARI (at SF)
Wilson is the WR65 in fantasy this season with one game on his 2024 ledger with more than eighth PPR points. He has commanded an 18.5% target share, 22% air-yard share, and a 21.3% first-read share while producing 1.27 YPRR. He has one end-zone target this season. The 49ers have utilized single-high on 54.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Wilson has seen his target share slightly increase to 19.1%, but his YPRR fall to 0.80, and his first-read share fall slightly to 20%. This isn't a week to consider flexing Wilson. The 49ers' perimeter corners have held wide receivers to the fifth-lowest PPR points per target this season.
|
|
96.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - LAR (vs . GB)
Last week, Robinson was fourth on the team, with a 10.3% target share, only 1.48 YPRR, and a 10% first-read share. Green Bay has the 11th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (56.2%). Since Week 2, against single-high, Robinson is sixth on the team with a 12% TPRR, fourth in YPRR (1.40), and fifth in first-read share (10.3%). Sit Robinson this week. Atwell and Whittington should lead the passing attack this week.
|
|
97.
Jalen Tolbert
WR - DAL (at PIT)
Tolbert is the WR58 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn an 11.8% target share, a 20% air-yard share, and a 14% first-read share with 1.27 YPRR. This isn't the matchup to consider flexing him. With CeeDee Lamb residing in the slot, Tolbert will match up with Joey Porter Jr. (69.2% catch rate and 124.2 passer rating) and Donte Jackson (52.9% catch rate and 45.2 passer rating) with about 69% of his routes. Porter Jr. has followed receivers to the slot on only nine snaps this season. Prior to last week's poor showing, Pittsburgh had allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 12th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
|
|
98.
Emanuel Wilson
RB - GB (at LAR)
|
|
99.
Zach Charbonnet
RB - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
100.
Mike Williams
WR - NYJ (at MIN)
Williams is a sit this week. Since Week 2, he has had a 54.8% route share, a 9.3% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (78.6%). Against two high, Williams has a mild increase to this target share to 13.7% with 2.03 YPRR and an 18.2% first-read share (third on the team). Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Williams will run about 82% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (77.3% catch rate and 92.6 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (47.1% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).
|
|
101.
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
102.
Curtis Samuel
WR - BUF (at HOU)
Samuel will assume the starting slot receiver role this week, with Khalil Shakir sidelined. Samuel has a 24% TPRR, 1.26 YPRR, and a 14% first-read share in limited action this season. Houston has the eighth-highest rate of single-high this season (57.6%). Against single-high, Samuelâs TPRR and YPRR have increased to 27% and 1.73. Donât be surprised if Samuel leads the team in targets this week. Houston has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
|
|
103.
Raheem Mostert
RB - MIA (at NE)
|
|
104.
Ty Chandler
RB - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
105.
Pat Freiermuth
TE - PIT (vs . DAL)
Freiermuth is the TE7 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. Freiermuth has a 17.6% target share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. These are all extremely strong metrics, ranking seventh, ninth, and seventh among 35 qualifying tight ends. Dallas has utilized single-high with 56.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Freiermuth's target share has increased to 20.7%, and his first-read share has bumped up to 21.1%. Dallas has faced the fewest targets to tight ends (tied), but they have allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception to the position.
|
|
106.
Kyle Pitts
TE - ATL (vs . TB)
Just as Pitts offered some hope last week with a season-high five targets and 59 receiving yards, he followed that game up with his worst outing of the season. Pitts only saw three targets last week and failed to secure any of them as he blanked the box score. Pitts has only managed a pitiful 10.9% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 9.5% first-read share. That minuscule first-read share ranks fifth on the Atlanta depth chart. Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 15th in receptions per game allowed to the position. Sit Pitts this week.
|
|
107.
David Njoku
TE - CLE (at WAS)
Njoku might be back this week. He has been listed as questionable after limited practice sessions on Wednesday and Friday. Njoku left Week 1 due to injury after essentially only playing two quarters. In this limited sample, he drew a 26.7% target share with a 33.3% first-read share. If Njoku is back, I have to wonder what his route share will look like. I lean that they probably hold him out this week, considering he isnât even healthy enough to practice every day this week and hasnât logged any full practices yet, but you never know, and this Browns team is sitting with only one win, and possibly staring at another loss this week. Washington has been a terrible pass defense this season, but they have been relatively untested against tight ends. They have faced the fewest tight end targets in the NFL (tied), but they have also allowed the seventh-lowest yards per reception to the position. Itâs such a small sample that I donât know how many conclusions we can draw from that, though. Considering the state of the tight end position, if Njoku plays (even in a limited role), he could be your best option for Week 5.
|
|
108.
Darius Slayton
WR - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
109.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
110.
Miles Sanders
RB - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
111.
Andrei Iosivas
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Over the last two weeks with Tee Higgins back, Iosivas has earned an 11.6% target share with 1.42 YPRR and a 9.5% first-read share. He's seen a target squeeze with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins soaking up so much of the volume. Over the last two weeks, Baltimore is fifth in two-high usage (55.1%). This season, against two high, his numbers have improved versus his last two-game sample. Against two high, Iosivas has had a 14.6% target share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 13.2% first-read share. None of these numbers are amazing. Iosivas is tied for second on the team with two end zone targets against two high. Iosivas will run about 72% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (60.9% catch rate and 65.5 passer rating).
|
|
112.
Alec Pierce
WR - IND (at JAC)
Pierce has fallen off since the return of Josh Downs, with only an 8% target share, a 23.3% air-yard share, 1.26 YPRR, and a 10.8% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, Jacksonville has flipped its defensive approach with the fifth-highest two-high rate (55.6%). Since Week 3, against two-high, Pierce has been a ghost with a 4.8% target share and a 6.7% first-read share. Sit Pierce this week.
|
|
113.
D'Onta Foreman
RB - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
114.
Rashod Bateman
WR - BAL (at CIN)
Bateman has only seen a 12.8% target share (1.45 YPRR) and a 13% first-read share as Baltimore's deep threat. He has a 29.3% air-yard share (15.4 aDOT) and leads the team with four deep targets. There's some hope that Bateman can offer some flex appeal this week against a Bengals' secondary that has allowed the 12th-highest passer rating and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Cincy has the seventh-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single high, Bateman has seen his target share climb to 15.9% and his first-read share bump to 20%. Since Week 3, Cincy has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers. If you're dealing with injuries or bye week hell, consider Bateman for a flex spot.
|
|
115.
Colby Parkinson
TE - LAR (vs . GB)
Parkinson is a match-up-based streamer when the match-up is right. It's right this week. Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Parkinson is the TE21 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 13.7% target share with 0.97 YPRR and a 14.1% first-read share. He's second on the team with four red zone targets.
|
|
116.
Cole Kmet
TE - CHI (vs . CAR)
Since Week 3, Kmet has had a 59.8% route share, an 18.7% target share, 2.67 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. Kmet is second in red zone targets for Chicago. Kmet is a borderline TE1 this week against a Panthers' pass defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
117.
Greg Dortch
WR - ARI (at SF)
Sit Dortch this week. He hasn't had more than eight PPR points in any game since Week 1. The 49ers have utilized single-high on 54.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Dortch has had a 12.8% target share, 0.43 YPRR, and a 17.1% first-read share. None of these metrics say, "Hey, flex me!"
|
|
118.
Tyler Goodson
RB - IND (at JAC)
|
|
119.
Samaje Perine
RB - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
120.
Bo Melton
WR - GB (at LAR)
|
|
121.
Zach Ertz
TE - WAS (vs . CLE)
Ertz is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 15.1% target share and a 14.5% first-read share while producing 1.55 YPRR and 37.5 receiving yards per game. Ertz's volume has been a bit hollow as he has yet to draw a deep target or a target inside the red zone. This is a week to consider other streaming options at tight end. Cleveland has given up the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
122.
Isaiah Likely
TE - BAL (at CIN)
Likely isn't playable in fantasy right now. Since Week 2, he has a 43% route share, an 8.8% target share, and has averaged only 18.7 receiving yards per game. If you need the room on your bench, he's droppable. The Bengals have held tight ends to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards.
|
|
123.
Tyler Conklin
TE - NYJ (at MIN)
Conklin's box score explosion was short-lived. In Week 4, he came crashing back to earth with 17 receiving yards despite drawing eight targets. Overall, he has a 12.5% target share, 1.06 YPRR, and a paltry 7.5% first-read share. He has drawn only one red zone target. Conklin could see an elevated role again this week and produce with his volume. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (78.6%). Against two high, Conklin has seen his target share increase to 16.4% while his YPRR has bumped to a strong 1.75. His first read share remains a watered-down 8.9%, so it's not all sunshine and rainbows for Conklin. The matchup is wonderful, though. Minnesota has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
|
|
124.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - DAL (at PIT)
Elliott is droppable in all formats. He hasn't played more than 19% of the snaps over the last two games while averaging only five touches and 18 total yards.
|
|
125.
Ja'Lynn Polk
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
Last week, New England finally decided to install Polk as a full-time receiver in the offense with an 82% route share, a 21.9% target share, a 62.2% air-yard share, and a 28% first-read share. This almost feels like a trap as New England has been rotating without any semblance of reasoning the focal point of the passing attack weekly. One week it is Hunter Henry, then DeMario Douglas, and now Polk. I'm sure there's no way the rug gets pulled out from under us in Week 5 (it probably does...). At this point, there's no way I have any confidence in starting anyone from the New England passing attack unless we possibly see them featured in multiple weeks. This offense is a mess. Polk is worth picking up where you can and stash him, though.
|
|
126.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL (at CIN)
Andrews' fantasy appeal is on life support. Last week, he only had a 30% route share and a 5.3% target share. Even if we expand our gaze to the last two weeks, the outlook isn't any prettier. Since Week 3, Andrews has had a 27% route share, a 5.9% target share, and zero receptions. I just don't get it, but this is where we are with the Baltimore passing attack. At this point, we need a prove-it game from Andrews in order to trust him in a fantasy lineup. That's a sentence I never thought I'd type, but it's true. Cincy doesn't offer a rosie outlook for Andrews this week. The Bengals have held tight ends to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards.
|
|
127.
Justin Watson
WR - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
128.
DeMario Douglas
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
Only Polk, Douglas, and Hunter Henry had route shares above 64% last week. Against a slot funnel defense, Douglas saw only a 9.4% target share, 4.9% air-yard share, and a 12% first-read share. Little of what New England is doing on offense makes sense right now. Again, I'm not trusting anyone in this offense in fantasy in my lineups outside of Rhamondre Stevenson. It has been a roulette wheel weekly with who has been featured that lacks any discernible reasoning. Hold Douglas on the end of your bench as he has proven that when the team decides to feature him, he is immensely talented, but until the usage of players in this offense levels out, there's no way to feel good about starting them.
|
|
129.
Cade Otton
TE - TB (at ATL)
Otton has a 15.5% target share, 0.99 YPRR, and a 13.5% first-read share. He is third on the team with three red zone targets. Atlanta has utilized single-high on 55.9% of their defensive snaps.Against single-high, his target share has bumped to 16%, while his first-read share has also increased to 17.9%. Otton is on the streaming radar this week against a Falcons defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receptions to tight ends.
|
|
130.
Dalton Schultz
TE - HOU (vs . BUF)
Schultz has only had a 10.5% target share and a 10.2% first-read share. He has only one red zone target and hasn't had more than 34 receiving yards in any game this season. I don't see that changing this week. Buffalo has faced the fourth-most tight end targets, but they have held the position to the 11th-most receptions and the ninth-lowest yards per reception.
|
|
131.
Hunter Henry
TE - NE (vs . MIA)
Henry leads the team in route share (74.1%), target share (17.4%), receiving yards per game (37), YPRR (1.48) and ranks third in first-read share (13.7%). Outside of his massive Week 2 performance, Henry hasn't surpassed 18 receiving yards in any game this season. Henry is a must-sit this week. The matchup is brutal. Miami has held tight ends to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game.
|
|
132.
Jamaal Williams
RB - NO (at KC)
|
|
133.
Ray Davis
RB - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
134.
Mike Gesicki
TE - CIN (vs . BAL)
Last week, Gesicki only managed one target, but he was still Cincyâs starting tight end with a 53% route share. Overall, this season, Gesicki has a 14.2% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 17.8% first-read share. Gesicki has two end zone targets as the TE14 in fantasy points per game. Gesicki is a fringe TE1 again this week if he doesnât take a backseat to Erick All. All has been one of the teamâs go-tos against two-high. Before leaning single-high heavy in Week 4 against Buffalo, Baltimore had the sixth-highest two-high usage (52.7%). Since Week 2, against two-high, Gesicki ranks third on the team in TPRR (24%), third in YPRR (1.70), and third in first-read share (17.5%). These arenât bad numbers until you compare them against Allâs. Since Week 2, against two-high, All is second on the team with a 39% TPRR; nine of his 12 targets have come against this coverage type, and he leads the team in YPRR and FD/RR. Weâll see if Gesicki can keep him at bay for another game. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
|
|
135.
Sterling Shepard
WR - TB (at ATL)
|
|
136.
Josh Reynolds
WR - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
137.
Elijah Moore
WR - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
138.
Carson Steele
RB - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
139.
Luke McCaffrey
WR - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
140.
Jalen Nailor
WR - MIN (vs . NYJ)
With Jordan Addison back, Nailor's route share dropped to 33.3%, and his target share crumbled to 7.1%. In deeper formats, he's worth holding on your rosters, but in 12-team leagues, Nailor is droppable, and he's not startable unless his route share comes back up.
|
|
141.
Jonathan Mingo
WR - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
142.
Dare Ogunbowale
RB - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
143.
Juwan Johnson
TE - NO (at KC)
Over the last two games, Johnson has seen his usage increase with a 52.3% route share. The bump in playing time hasn't equaled more targets, as he's had only a 4.9% target share and a 2.6% first-read share. This requires a leap of faith, but if you're struggling at tight end this week, Johnson is on the match-up-based streaming radar. Kansas City has allowed the more receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
|
|
144.
Ty Johnson
RB - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
145.
Noah Fant
TE - SEA (vs . NYG)
Fant is the TE22 in fantasy points per game. He has been a distant fourth-wheel in the Seattle passing attack with a 9.4% target share, 1.05 YPRR, and a 12.7% first-read share. He has one red zone target this season. Fant is a low-end tight-end streamer this week against a Giants' pass defense that has allowed the ninth-most receptions and the tenth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
|
|
146.
Brenton Strange
TE - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
147.
Mack Hollins
WR - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
148.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
149.
Eric Gray
RB - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
150.
Noah Gray
TE - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
151.
Trey Benson
RB - ARI (at SF)
|
|
152.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
153.
Isaac Guerendo
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
154.
Calvin Austin III
WR - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
155.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
WR - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
156.
Erick All Jr.
TE - CIN (vs . BAL)
Ok, after stewing about his usage later this week and looking deeper, I have begun to wonder if this could be the All breakout game. Since Week 2, he has played at least 54% of the snaps in two of three games, but most of these snaps have been in run support and blocking. He has only had a 27% route share over the last three games, but he has made the most of his routes. All has had an 11.4% target share, 2.65 YPRR, a ridiculous 39% TPRR, and 0.161 FD/RR. Among 42 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 19th, second, first, and first in those categories. Where All comes in as a possible breakout player this week is his role against two-high. Before leaning single-high heavy in Week 4 against Buffalo, Baltimore had the sixth-highest two-high usage (52.7%). All has been one of Burrowâs favorite targets against two-high. Since Week 2, against two-high, he is second on the team with a 39% TPRR, nine of his 12 targets have come against this coverage type, and he leads the team in YPRR and FD/RR. He is crushing it on a per-route basis and is screaming for more work in the passing game. The matchup is juicy enough for him to make the most of his opportunities in Week 5. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
|
|
157.
KaVontae Turpin
WR - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
158.
Ronnie Rivers
RB - LAR (vs . GB)
|
|
159.
Jonnu Smith
TE - MIA (at NE)
|
|
160.
Johnny Mundt
TE - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
161.
Adonai Mitchell
WR - IND (at JAC)
|
|
162.
Jaylen Wright
RB - MIA (at NE)
|
|
163.
Tommy Tremble
TE - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
164.
Jalin Hyatt
WR - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
165.
Greg Dulcich
TE - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
166.
Van Jefferson
WR - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
167.
Tyler Johnson
WR - LAR (vs . GB)
|
|
168.
Dyami Brown
WR - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
169.
Emari Demercado
RB - ARI (at SF)
|
|
170.
Khalil Herbert
RB - CHI (vs . CAR)
|
|
171.
Nelson Agholor
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
172.
Dawson Knox
TE - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
173.
Theo Johnson
TE - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
174.
Hunter Luepke
RB - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
175.
DJ Turner
WR - LV (at DEN)
|
|
176.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
177.
Ameer Abdullah
RB - LV (at DEN)
|
|
178.
Kyle Juszczyk
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
179.
Troy Franklin
WR - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
180.
Jeremy McNichols
RB - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
181.
Jalen Brooks
WR - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
182.
Mason Tipton
WR - NO (at KC)
|
|
183.
Elijah Higgins
TE - ARI (at SF)
|
|
184.
Skyy Moore
WR - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
185.
Jordan Akins
TE - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
186.
Aaron Shampklin
RB - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
187.
K.J. Osborn
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
188.
Foster Moreau
TE - NO (at KC)
|
|
189.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
190.
Austin Hooper
TE - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
191.
Malik Heath
WR - GB (at LAR)
|
|
192.
Brandon Powell
WR - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
193.
JaMycal Hasty
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
194.
Marvin Mims Jr.
WR - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
195.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
196.
Harrison Bryant
TE - LV (at DEN)
|
|
197.
Deuce Vaughn
RB - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
198.
Robert Woods
WR - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
199.
Cedric Tillman
WR - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
200.
Xavier Gipson
WR - NYJ (at MIN)
|
|
201.
J.J. Taylor
RB - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
202.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
WR - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
203.
Parker Washington
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
204.
Kylen Granson
TE - IND (at JAC)
|
|
205.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB - MIA (at NE)
|
|
206.
Blake Corum
RB - LAR (vs . GB)
|
|
207.
Luke Musgrave
TE - GB (at LAR)
|
|
208.
Evan Hull
RB - IND (at JAC)
|
|
209.
Jake Bobo
WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
210.
Jeremy Ruckert
TE - NYJ (at MIN)
|
|
211.
Kendrick Bourne
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
212.
Josh Oliver
TE - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
213.
AJ Barner
TE - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
214.
Darnell Washington
TE - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
215.
Braxton Berrios
WR - MIA (at NE)
|
|
216.
Dylan Laube
RB - LV (at DEN)
|
|
217.
Tyquan Thornton
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
218.
Kameron Johnson
WR - TB (at ATL)
|
|
219.
Jermaine Burton
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
220.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND (at JAC)
|
|
221.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - MIA (at NE)
|
|
222.
Drew Ogletree
TE - IND (at JAC)
|
|
223.
Cade Stover
TE - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
224.
Evan Engram
TE - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
225.
Jonathan Ward
RB - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
226.
Blake Watson
RB - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
227.
Pierre Strong Jr.
RB - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
228.
Gerald Everett
TE - CHI (vs . CAR)
|
|
229.
Dameon Pierce
RB - HOU (vs . BUF)
Pierce has been listed as questionable, but heâs closer to doubtful. He didnât practice this week until Friday when he only managed a limited session. I expect him to miss Week 5.
|
|
230.
David Moore
WR - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
231.
Pharaoh Brown
TE - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
232.
John Bates
TE - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
233.
Malik Washington
WR - MIA (at NE)
|
|
234.
Daniel Bellinger
TE - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
235.
Drew Sample
TE - CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
236.
DeAndre Carter
WR - CHI (vs . CAR)
|
|
237.
Luke Farrell
TE - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
238.
Michael Burton
RB - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
239.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
240.
Luke Schoonmaker
TE - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
241.
Scotty Miller
WR - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
242.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
WR - NO (at KC)
|
|
243.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton
WR - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
244.
Ashton Dulin
WR - IND (at JAC)
|
|
245.
Durham Smythe
TE - MIA (at NE)
|
|
246.
Nate Adkins
TE - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
247.
Kayshon Boutte
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
248.
Adam Trautman
TE - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
249.
Kendre Miller
RB - NO (at KC)
|
|
250.
Eric Saubert
TE - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
251.
Patrick Ricard
RB - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
252.
Xavier Hutchinson
WR - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
253.
Alec Ingold
RB - MIA (at NE)
|
|
254.
Isaiah Davis
RB - NYJ (at MIN)
|
|
255.
Devin Duvernay
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
256.
Ben Sinnott
TE - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
257.
Sean Tucker
RB - TB (at ATL)
|
|
258.
Kenny McIntosh
RB - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
259.
Jacob Cowing
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
260.
Charlie Kolar
TE - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
261.
Trenton Irwin
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
262.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
WR - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
263.
Will Mallory
TE - IND (at JAC)
|
|
264.
Tylan Wallace
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
265.
Jared Wiley
TE - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
266.
Hunter Long
TE - LAR (vs . GB)
|
|
267.
Ben Sims
TE - GB (at LAR)
|
|
268.
Adam Prentice
RB - NO (at KC)
|
|
269.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
WR - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
270.
Julian Hill
TE - MIA (at NE)
|
|
271.
Connor Heyward
TE - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
|
272.
Jalen Coker
WR - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
273.
Ryan Flournoy
WR - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
274.
Raheem Blackshear
RB - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
275.
Charlie Woerner
TE - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
276.
Tanner Hudson
TE - CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
277.
C.J. Ham
RB - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
278.
Payne Durham
TE - TB (at ATL)
|
|
279.
Davis Allen
TE - LAR (vs . GB)
|
|
280.
Dante Miller
RB - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
281.
Ross Dwelley
TE - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
282.
KhaDarel Hodge
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
283.
Isaiah Hodgins
WR - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
284.
Devin Singletary
RB - NYG (at SEA)
Singletary has been solid this season. If his offensive line were better, then he would be producing at a higher level than RB26 in fantasy points per game. The Giants line has the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Singletary has had to make plays on his own. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 19th in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Seattle has been a tough run defense this season, but there's a ray of hope for Singletary this week. Seattle has held rushers to the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, but they have also yielded the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the sixth-highest success rate to gap runs (Singletary 60.7% gap). Singletary has the 13th-highest gap run success rate.
|
|
285.
Quintin Morris
TE - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
286.
Tip Reiman
TE - ARI (at SF)
|
|
287.
Bub Means
WR - NO (at KC)
|
|
288.
Charlie Jones
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
289.
Tanner Conner
TE - MIA (at NE)
|
|
290.
Trayveon Williams
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
291.
Ronnie Bell
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
292.
Chris Moore
WR - ARI (at SF)
|
|
293.
Chris Brooks
RB - GB (at LAR)
|
|
294.
James Proche II
WR - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
295.
Zach Pascal
WR - ARI (at SF)
|
|
296.
Tyreik McAllister
RB,WR - LV (at DEN)
|
|
297.
Taysom Hill
QB,TE - NO (at KC)
|
|
298.
Marcedes Lewis
TE - CHI (vs . CAR)
|
|
299.
Gary Brightwell
RB - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
300.
Devaughn Vele
WR - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
301.
Patrick Taylor Jr.
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
302.
Christian Watson
WR - GB (at LAR)
|
|
303.
Avery Williams
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
304.
Ko Kieft
TE - TB (at ATL)
|
|
305.
Dee Eskridge
WR - MIA (at NE)
|
|
306.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
307.
Tim Jones
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
308.
Tyler Scott
WR - CHI (vs . CAR)
|
|
309.
Javon Baker
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
310.
Chris Conley
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
311.
British Brooks
RB - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
312.
Devontez Walker
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
313.
Jordan Mims
RB - NO (at KC)
|
|
314.
Blake Whiteheart
TE - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
315.
Chris Manhertz
TE - NYG (at SEA)
|
|
316.
Dalvin Cook
RB - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
317.
Sincere McCormick
RB - LV (at DEN)
|
|
318.
Jody Fortson Jr.
TE - KC (vs . NO)
|
|
319.
Brycen Tremayne
WR - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
320.
Robert Tonyan
TE - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
321.
Brady Russell
TE - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
322.
John Metchie III
WR - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
323.
Erik Ezukanma
WR - MIA (at NE)
|
|
324.
Jake Tonges
TE - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
325.
Deonte Harty
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
326.
Roman Wilson
WR - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
327.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - ARI (at SF)
|
|
328.
Lucas Krull
TE - DEN (vs . LV)
|
|
329.
Tyrell Shavers
WR - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
330.
Xavier Smith
WR - LAR (vs . GB)
|
|
331.
Jaheim Bell
TE - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
332.
Myles Gaskin
RB - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
|
333.
Reggie Gilliam
RB - BUF (at HOU)
|
|
334.
Andrew Beck
RB - GB (at LAR)
|
|
335.
Brevyn Spann-Ford
TE - DAL (at PIT)
|
|
336.
Casey Washington
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
337.
Cody Thompson
WR - TB (at ATL)
|
|
338.
Brenden Bates
TE - NYJ (at MIN)
|
|
339.
Steven Sims Jr.
WR - HOU (vs . BUF)
|
|
340.
Brandon Johnson
WR - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
341.
Josiah Deguara
TE - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
342.
Cole Turner
TE - WAS (vs . CLE)
|
|
343.
Chris Collier
RB - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
344.
Dareke Young
WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
345.
John Samuel Shenker
TE - LV (at DEN)
|
|
346.
Alex Bachman
WR - LV (at DEN)
|
|
347.
Irvin Charles
WR - NYJ (at MIN)
|
|
348.
Jamari Thrash
WR - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
349.
Jordan Matthews
TE,WR - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
350.
Dallin Holker
TE - NO (at KC)
|
|
351.
Cody Schrader
RB - LAR (vs . GB)
|
|
352.
Xavier Weaver
WR - ARI (at SF)
|
|
353.
Trent Taylor
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
354.
Velus Jones Jr.
RB,WR - CHI (vs . CAR)
|
|
355.
Jordan Franks
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
356.
A.T. Perry
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
357.
Mike Boone
RB - CAR (at CHI)
|
|
358.
Geoff Swaim
TE - CLE (at WAS)
|
|
359.
Cornelius Johnson
WR - GB (at LAR)
|
|
360.
Anthony Gould
WR - IND (at JAC)
|
|
361.
Messiah Swinson
TE - GB (at LAR)
|
|
362.
Dee Williams
CB,WR - SEA (vs . NYG)
|
|
363.
Chris Blair
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
364.
Rodney Williams
TE - PIT (vs . DAL)
|
|
365.
Trishton Jackson
WR - MIN (vs . NYJ)
|
