Fantasy Football Player Notes

Justin Herbert's 2023 season ended after 13 games due to a broken index finger on his throwing hand. Before the injury, he had been providing fantasy managers with low-end QB1 value. Herbert's yearly finishes in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks (six starts minimum): QB7, QB2, QB15, QB10. It would be nice if Herbert could get back to the production level of his first two years in the league. Over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Herbert averaged 292.2 passing yards, 2.2 TD passes and 23.1 fantasy points per game. Over the last two seasons, he's averaged 262.4 passing yards, 1.5 TD passes and 17.7 fantasy points per game. Herbert has exceptional arm talent and rushing upside, but the Chargers will presumably be run-heavy with new head coach Jim Harbaugh in charge and offensive coordinator Greg Roman calling the plays, potentially capping Herbert's fantasy upside.

Gus Edwards arrives in Los Angeles with a two-year deal that is essentially a one-year contract, with the money falling off after 2024. Last season, Edwards was the RB32 in fantasy, with the strength of 13 total touchdowns (fourth-most). Edwards is an early down grinder who only managed a 2.8% target share last season, so all of his value will have to come via rushing. Edwards looks like a player on the decline in the rushing department after finishing 51st in juke rate, 39th in evaded tackles, and 45th in yards created per touch last season. With J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal brought in as competition, Edwards could be on the outside looking with volume this season.

Ladd McConkey emerged in his third season at Georgia as a redshirt sophomore, achieving 762 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with a 20% dominator rating, despite a late breakout at 21 years old. Competing for targets with Brock Bowers, one of college football's top tight ends, and ahead of 2024 second-round pick AD Mitchell on the depth chart, McConkey demonstrated his capability, especially in the two games without Bowers in 2023, posting his highest yardage totals. Although injuries impacted his final year's stats, he remained efficient, ranking 8th nationally in yards per route run (3.26). Known for his quickness and polished route-running rather than size, McConkey's agility and speed, highlighted by a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at the combine, make him a promising professional prospect. Drafted by the Chargers who traded up in Round 2, he enters a team with a weak WR corps, positioning him to potentially lead in targets.

Dobbins has been snakebite over the last two years. First, it was the torn ACL that ended his 2022 season. Last year, in Week 1, Dobbins tore his Achilles. I would tread cautiously if you're looking to draft him in early redraft or best ball. Dobbins only carries a 50k dead cap hit if the team decides to move on from him.

Joshua Palmer emerged as a significant contributor for the Chargers last season, especially when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were sidelined. His performance, particularly in games without Williams, showcased his potential, averaging 10.6 fantasy points per game. Even in the absence of both WRs and QB1 Justin Herbert, Palmer maintained a strong target share and production, averaging 11.5 points per game. While the Chargers are likely to draft a wide receiver, Palmer remains a solid in-house option.

Quentin Johnston's rookie season left much to be desired, with disappointing production. Despite the Chargers' offseason moves opening up opportunities, including the departure of key receivers, Johnston failed to capitalize on his chances. With Ladd McConkey drafted early, Johnston's future role in the offense becomes uncertain. While it may be premature to label him a bust after just one season, his lack of impact in Year 1 (61st among 63 qualifying WRs in yards per route run) raises red flags for his fantasy value moving forward.

Vidal might have tumbled down the NFL draft board, but don't make the mistake of assuming that he lacks the talent profile to take over the Bolts' backfield. His competition (Gus Edwards & J.K. Dobbins) isn't exactly overwhelming. Last year, Vidal ranked 21st in PFF's elusive rating while proving that he can handle volume with at least 23 carries in 57% of his games. With Greg Roman at the controls, there will be plenty of rushing volume to chew on, so even if he doesn't claim the workhorse role. From 2019-2022 with Baltimore, Roman coordinated an offense that ranked first in neutral rushing rate. Vidal could be a flex play in Week 1 with the upside to grow into more (RB2) as the season moves along.

The 27-year-old is hitting free agency (again) after playing a complimentary role with the Panthers in 2023. Chark caught a long pass that was initially ruled a TD in Week 18, but it was overturned to a fumble through the end zone. Woof. He is a free agent in 2024 and will likely land on a new team as a complimentary deep threat who misses games with injuries.
Chark was the WR58 overall in 2023, averaging 6.5 points per game (65th). He led the Panthers in TDs (5) and posted over 1,000 air yards on a team-high 31% air yards share (33rd). No player had more air yards with fewer targets (66) than Chark despite two missed games. D.J. Chark signed with the Chargers after the NFL Draft to a one-year deal worth $5 million.

Brenden Rice brings a compelling combination of size, athleticism, and football pedigree to the wide receiver position, standing out with his 6'3" frame and impressive physical presence. While his collegiate journey included a breakout season at Colorado and a productive senior year at USC, his final season dominator rating fell slightly below expectations. Nevertheless, Rice's ability to make an impact in the red zone and his proficiency in catching touchdowns highlight his potential as a scoring threat at the next level. His comparison to Josh Palmer underscores the importance of his quarterback and offensive situation in maximizing his impact on the field. Joining the Chargers in the seventh round presents Rice with an opportunity to continue his development and carve out a role in their offense.

The LAC DST also looks like an intriguing option late in fantasy drafts given the ease of the schedule to open the year against LV, CAR and PIT. They also boast a top-4 schedule overall per the FP SOS tool.