Fantasy Football Player Notes

It was a weird year for Jonathan Taylor all around. From contract disputes to injuries, we rarely got to see Taylor fully ramped up and healthy in 2023. Entering his age-25 season, Taylor remains firmly in the prime of his career. In Weeks 7-18, he handled 21 touches per game, churning out 99.4 total yards per game. While many of his efficiency metrics were depressed last season, Taylor still ranked 13th in yards after contact per attempt, which tells me all I need to know. He's still one of the best backs in the league and should remain a locked-in RB1 after finishing last season as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. A rushing attack fueled by Taylor and Anthony Richardson should be a nightmare for defensive coordinators this season.

Michael Pittman Jr. showcased his alpha status in the Colts' offense, tallying 109 receptions for over 1,100 yards on 156 targets in 16 games, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Despite limited touchdown production, Pittman Jr. commanded a 33% air yards share and a 30% target share, boasting a high floor. With potential for improved touchdown variance in 2024, especially if Anthony Richardson elevates the offense, Pittman Jr. stands to benefit. The addition of Adonai Mitchell in the draft could enhance the overall offensive output without significantly impacting Pittman's target share.

Injuries limited Anthony Richardson to just four games in his rookie season, but that appetizer-sized portion of Richardson left fantasy managers craving an entree-sized portion in 2024. Richardson went on injured reserve in October after sustaining a grade-3 AC joint sprain in Week 5. He also missed a game after a Week 2 concussion. But in the two full games he played, Richardson was dazzling, with 21.9 fantasy points in Week 1 and 29.6 points in Week 4, good for weekly fantasy finishes of QB4 and QB2. Richardson had three TD passes and four TD runs. He averaged 0.43 fantasy points per snap. Putting that into perspective, Josh Allen, who led all QBs in fantasy scoring, averaged 0.36 fantasy points per snap. The 6-4, 244-pound Richardson has a rare combination of size and speed that makes him one of the best running QBs in the league. And based on the small 2023 sample, he may be a more advanced passer than he was billed as in the run-up to the 2023 NFL Draft. Richardson's fantasy stock is ready to soar.

Josh Downs had a promising rookie season with the Colts, showcasing his skills with 68 receptions and 771 receiving yards. Despite his strong performance, Downs struggled to find the end zone, recording only two touchdowns. However, his production dipped after sustaining a knee injury, impacting his performance in the latter part of the season. Nonetheless, Downs displayed potential from Weeks 1-8, leading the Colts in yards per route run and maintaining a solid 19% target share.

Adonai Mitchell had a standout season with the Texas Longhorns, achieving a 32% dominator rating with 11 touchdowns from 55 receptions. Standing at 6'2" and weighing 205 pounds, his physique is well-suited for an outside receiver role. While he boasts the physical tools and deep threat potential akin to D.J. Chark Jr. or Alec Pierce, Mitchell enters a situation where he may play third fiddle behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. This could limit his weekly fantasy production, although his knack for big plays makes him a worthy consideration in best-ball formats, offering occasional high-scoring outings.

Per the FantasyPros projections, the Colts DST leads all teams in projected sacks.

Unfortunately, Evan Hull got injured in Week 1 of the NFL season, so we were not able to see him in action during the regular season outside of one carry. Hull walks into the 2024 season as Jonathon Taylor's immediate backup. Hull only had 17 rushing attempts in the preseason, but he finished with a passable 2.53 yards after contact per attempt (per PFF). Hull proved in college that he has a three-down skillset with over 1,400 total yards and a 17.3% target share in his final season at Northwestern. Hull is a high-priority handcuff for 2024. If Taylor misses any time, Hull could be this year's Zack Moss.