Fantasy Football Player Notes

A.J. Brown had a solid season, ranking fifth among WRs with an average of 14.8 points per game. He showcased his big-play ability with 105 receptions for over 1,400 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, he struggled towards the end of the season (out-scored by DeVonta Smith after Week 11) coinciding with the Eagles' late-season collapse. With changes in the coaching staff, including the hiring of Kellen Moore, there's uncertainty about Brown's production in 2024 if the team continues to struggle.

The Philly front office has officially gaslit the entire Giants' fanbase. Barkley's move to the Eagles might be met with some blowback because people are worried about his touchdown equity with Jalen Hurts. Barkley and D'Andre Swift are not close to being in the same talent area code. Bringing in Barkley means we likely see a downtick of Hurts' goalline dives in 2024. While the overall counting stats for Barkley look depressed, he's still very much an every-down bell cow with juice left in the tank entering his age-27 season. Last season, he played at least 70% of the snaps in 11 of his 14 games while ranking second in opportunity share and ninth in weighted opportunities. Last season, Barkley was still an explosive player, ranking 17th in explosive run rate, but his tackle-breaking metrics took a hit as he was 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 50 carries per Fantasy Points Data). Barkley remains a stud RB1.

Jalen Hurts finished QB2 in fantasy scoring in 2023, but there are reasons for concern heading into the 2024 season. After averaging 25.6 fantasy points per game during a banner 2022 campaign, Hurts' scoring average dropped to 21.9 FPPG in 2023. His passing yardage per game fell from 246.7 to 226.9, and his yardage per attempt slipped from 8.0 to 7.2. Hurts also had slippage in completion percentage and touchdown rate, and his passer rating plummeted from 101.5 to 89.1. On the bright side, Hurts provided ample rushing value, with 605 rushing yards and 15 TD runs, the most ever for a quarterback in a single season. The fear is that Hurts' fantasy value could take a tumble in 2024 if there's a significant drop-off in rushing touchdowns. TD runs accounted for 24.1% of Hurts' 2023 fantasy points. If Hurts is to remain a top-three fantasy quarterback, he'll probably need to boost his passing efficiency.

DeVonta Smith has showcased his ability to thrive in the absence of key teammates like A.J. Brown or Dallas Goedert over the past two seasons. During Weeks 11-18 this season, he ranked as WR16, averaging 13.6 points per game, demonstrating backend fantasy WR1 potential. However, prior to Week 11, he was WR25 overall with 10.9 points per game. Smith's talent is evident, but for him to reach fantasy WR1 status, others in the Eagles passing game may need to scale back their production. Overall, he finished the year 20th in points per game (12.2) with a 24% target share.

By now, we have a pretty good handle on what sort of player Dallas Goedert is. He reliably puts up good reception and yardage totals, but he's not a prolific touchdown scorer, and he gets banged up quite a bit. Over his last five seasons, Goedert has averaged 4.1 catches and 48.6 receiving yards per game. But Goedert has never scored more than five touchdowns in a single season, and he's missed 14 games due to injury over the last four years. Goedert's efficiency numbers slipped in 2023. After averaging better than 10 yards per target in 2021 and 2022, he averaged 7.1 yards per target last season. he also averaged a career-low 10.0 yards per catch. Goedert's fantasy ceiling may be somewhat limited due to the presence of Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who give Philadelphia one of the best wide receiver combos in the league. Consider Goedert a low-end TE1 for 2024 fantasy drafts.

Johnny Wilson brings a unique blend of size and athleticism to the wide receiver position, standing out with his imposing 6'6" frame. While he faced challenges with a late breakout age and a dip in production in his final collegiate season, his standout performances at Florida State underscore his potential as a red zone threat and contested catch specialist. Wilson's ability to exceed expectations in terms of target rate highlights his impact on the field, despite any statistical fluctuations. The interest from NFL teams in potentially transitioning him to tight end adds another dimension to his potential role at the next level, offering fantasy managers additional flexibility in their roster considerations. Joining the Eagles in the sixth round presents an opportunity for Wilson to further develop and carve out a niche in Philadelphia's offense.

Ainias Smith emerged as a versatile playmaker for the Aggies, showcasing his skills both as a receiver and running back. Despite a setback in 2022 due to injury and off-field issues, he rebounded in his final season with impressive receiving yardage and punt return ability. While not the fastest, his dynamic open-field prowess and versatility make him an intriguing prospect, especially for teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, who have shown interest in him during the pre-draft process. If Smith can put his red flags behind him, he has the potential to contribute early on, possibly even cracking the starting lineup in Philadelphia's receiver corps.