Fantasy Football Player Notes

Javonte Williams looked like a shelf of his former self in the first season. Yes, I know this was his first season coming off a devastating knee injury, but it still wasn't pretty. Volume wasn't the issue for the RB31 last season, as he rolled up 264 touches, but his efficiency numbers were scary. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Could he bounce back in 2024 and look more like the eventual stud we saw in 2021 and 2022? Sure, it's possible. Is it also possible that a back with a 40th percentile speed score and 72nd percentile burst score never regains his former juice? Yep. Williams looks entrenched as Denver's early down guy, but don't be surprised if Jaleel McLaughlin eats into his carries more this season and capsizes his pass-game usage. Williams is an RB2/3.

Courtland Sutton's outlook for the upcoming season appears less promising, especially with a rookie QB in 12th overall pick Bo Nix. While Sutton saw a resurgence in touchdown production last year, accounting for a significant portion of his fantasy points, it's unlikely to repeat, projecting him in the 4-6 TD range. His target usage parallels Jerry Jeudy's, who has since been traded, solidifying Sutton's role as the team's top WR. Despite competition from Marvin Mims and rookie Troy Franklin, Sutton's consistent WR3 performance suggests a stable floor in fantasy.

Fully expect me to be above consensus regarding Jaleel McLaughlin this season. Last year, he was electric with every touch he earned. Among all running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts or 20 targets, McLaughlin ranked 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and fourth in yards per route run. Denver made it a point to get him involved in the passing game when he was on the field, as he also ranked first in targets per route run. McLaughlin could easily earn more opportunities this season, as Samaje Perine wasn't amazing last season, and Javonte Williams looked like a shadow of his former self. At this juncture, I'm not worried about Audric Estime and Blake Watson stealing any of McLaughlin's work this season. If McLaughlin earns Sean Payton's trust, he could be an RB3/4 that vaults into steady RB2 production.

Marvin Mims Jr., the second-year wideout for the Broncos, stands to benefit from the departure of Jerry Jeudy, which opens up more playing time and opportunities for him in the offense. Despite limited playing time in his rookie year, Mims showed flashes of potential, including a couple of impressive performances early in the season. However, his development was hindered by redundancy in roles with Jeudy and depth at the WR position. While there's optimism for Mims to step up in his 2nd season, the recent drafting of Troy Franklin with an overlapping skillset could potentially complicate his path to a significant role in the offense.

Troy Franklin capped his junior year at Oregon with nearly 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, showcasing his deep-threat capabilities with a 29% dominator rating. Despite concerns about his slender frame at 6-foot-3 and 183 lbs, his rumored 4.35-second 40-yard dash underscores his potential as a top-tier receiver and early breakout age. Drafted early in Round 4 by the Broncos after a disappointing combine, Franklin finds a favorable situation under Sean Payton, who has a history of trading up for wide receivers. Positioned to play the "Z" role previously held by Jerry Jeudy, Franklin's existing chemistry with Broncos QB Bo Nix, his former college teammate, could enhance his opportunity to make an immediate impact.

The Broncos are hoping Nix can stabilize their QB situation after spending the No. 12 overall draft pick on the Oregon quarterback in April. As a five-year college starter, Nix enters the NFL with a wealth of playing experience, having made 61 starts over three seasons at Auburn and two at Oregon. Nix completed 74.9% of his throws at Oregon the last two years, with 74 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Nix is an accurate short passer but doesn't have a big arm. The hope for fantasy is that Nix can be a poor man's Drew Brees for Broncos head coach Sean Payton.