Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 16 | 8.43% | 5.15% | 324.3 | 1 | 7.02% | 4.63% | 308.9 | 1 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 15 | 9.38% | 8.61% | 242.7 | 2 | 7.22% | 6.87% | 216.7 | 3 | -1 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 12 | 6.25% | 5.26% | 223.0 | 3 | 6.06% | 4.88% | 217.2 | 2 | +1 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 1.37% | 4.12% | 215.7 | 4 | 1.15% | 3.35% | 202.4 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.29% | 197.4 | 5 | 1.01% | 3.70% | 189.8 | 7 | -2 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 16 | 4.29% | 2.21% | 194.6 | 6 | 3.27% | 2.37% | 193.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 16 | 4.69% | 3.50% | 191.3 | 7 | 4.70% | 4.07% | 200.0 | 5 | +2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 16 | 4.21% | 2.24% | 187.5 | 8 | 3.04% | 1.73% | 173.9 | 11 | -3 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.84% | 183.5 | 9 | 5.52% | 1.45% | 185.9 | 8 | +1 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 13 | 0.00% | 5.94% | 181.2 | 10 | 0.45% | 5.38% | 174.5 | 10 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 14 | 1.41% | 5.49% | 181.1 | 11 | 2.30% | 4.67% | 175.9 | 9 | +2 |
| Gus Edwards (LAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 6.57% | 172.2 | 12 | 0.27% | 6.08% | 166.7 | 15 | -3 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 14 | 4.08% | 3.41% | 169.9 | 13 | 4.39% | 3.28% | 169.1 | 14 | -1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 4.65% | 1.87% | 169.2 | 14 | 4.19% | 1.74% | 165.1 | 17 | -3 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 16 | 7.94% | 1.96% | 164.0 | 15 | 5.06% | 1.76% | 150.7 | 21 | -6 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 14 | 2.70% | 3.65% | 162.3 | 16 | 2.00% | 3.68% | 161.1 | 18 | -2 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 13 | 6.67% | 2.43% | 160.5 | 17 | 4.65% | 2.40% | 152.8 | 19 | -2 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 16 | 2.04% | 2.18% | 160.3 | 18 | 1.99% | 2.90% | 170.1 | 13 | +5 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 13 | 1.15% | 2.78% | 158.0 | 19 | 1.35% | 3.38% | 165.6 | 16 | +3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 14 | 9.30% | 2.81% | 154.6 | 20 | 6.20% | 2.76% | 146.1 | 23 | -3 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.37% | 153.0 | 21 | 1.51% | 3.25% | 172.4 | 12 | +9 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 10 | 8.11% | 7.77% | 151.6 | 22 | 6.61% | 5.55% | 134.6 | 28 | -6 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 12 | 6.06% | 3.37% | 148.1 | 23 | 4.48% | 3.35% | 144.7 | 24 | -1 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.14% | 147.2 | 24 | 1.32% | 2.98% | 147.8 | 22 | +2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 13 | 0.00% | 2.58% | 144.1 | 25 | 1.45% | 2.77% | 151.5 | 20 | +5 |
| Zack Moss (CIN) | 13 | 5.41% | 2.73% | 139.6 | 26 | 4.11% | 3.22% | 142.1 | 25 | +1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.10% | 134.3 | 27 | 0.37% | 2.45% | 140.2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.68% | 132.4 | 28 | 0.78% | 2.48% | 134.0 | 29 | -1 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 13 | 1.35% | 2.79% | 129.5 | 29 | 1.97% | 3.66% | 141.5 | 26 | +3 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.85% | 124.8 | 30 | 1.03% | 2.28% | 132.7 | 30 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 15 | 3.45% | 1.38% | 118.7 | 31 | 3.29% | 2.05% | 126.8 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 4.35% | 2.15% | 116.2 | 32 | 3.12% | 2.36% | 116.9 | 32 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) | 16 | 3.08% | 1.63% | 115.4 | 33 | 2.15% | 1.82% | 113.9 | 34 | -1 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 9 | 4.35% | 4.14% | 111.8 | 34 | 4.17% | 3.97% | 109.8 | 35 | -1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 107.7 | 35 | 0.67% | 2.18% | 106.1 | 37 | -2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 14 | 0.00% | 6.67% | 103.0 | 36 | 0.49% | 5.74% | 96.1 | 39 | -3 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 15 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 100.3 | 37 | 6.87% | 1.39% | 115.5 | 33 | +4 |
| AJ Dillon (GB) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.12% | 95.6 | 38 | 0.54% | 2.32% | 109.3 | 36 | +2 |
| Aaron Jones (MIN) | 10 | 2.33% | 1.41% | 90.8 | 39 | 2.80% | 2.37% | 100.2 | 38 | +1 |
| Khalil Herbert (CIN) | 11 | 3.23% | 1.52% | 88.4 | 40 | 3.37% | 1.41% | 87.8 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 16 | 1.43% | 2.00% | 83.2 | 41 | 1.83% | 2.01% | 84.9 | 41 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman (CLE) | 9 | 6.25% | 3.67% | 80.2 | 42 | 5.67% | 3.55% | 78.9 | 43 | -1 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 15 | 2.56% | 3.57% | 78.7 | 43 | 1.75% | 3.65% | 77.2 | 45 | -2 |
| Antonio Gibson (NE) | 15 | 3.39% | 1.54% | 75.8 | 44 | 2.63% | 1.54% | 73.1 | 48 | -4 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 16 | 5.56% | 1.32% | 74.4 | 45 | 4.25% | 1.58% | 72.8 | 49 | -4 |
| Ty Chandler (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.94% | 71.1 | 46 | 1.41% | 2.45% | 70.2 | 51 | -5 |
| Dameon Pierce (HOU) | 13 | 0.00% | 1.38% | 69.7 | 47 | 0.68% | 2.41% | 79.4 | 42 | +5 |
| Samaje Perine (KC) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.89% | 68.3 | 48 | 0.67% | 2.91% | 73.8 | 47 | +1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.93% | 67.1 | 49 | 0.48% | 2.33% | 77.3 | 44 | +5 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.47% | 66.1 | 50 | 1.12% | 3.10% | 71.9 | 50 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 16 | 0.00% | 5.06% | 65.9 | 51 | 2.74% | 6.19% | 74.8 | 46 | +5 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 15 | 9.09% | 2.25% | 64.5 | 52 | 5.99% | 2.62% | 62.4 | 54 | -2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.38% | 61.2 | 53 | 0.44% | 2.94% | 65.0 | 53 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell (BAL) | 7 | 0.00% | 4.26% | 60.9 | 54 | 1.03% | 2.55% | 56.8 | 55 | -1 |
| Miles Sanders (CAR) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.78% | 58.8 | 55 | 0.68% | 1.37% | 65.1 | 52 | +3 |
| Joshua Kelley (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.87% | 53.6 | 56 | 0.37% | 1.98% | 54.6 | 57 | -1 |
| Emari Demercado (ARI) | 12 | 0.00% | 3.45% | 52.3 | 57 | 0.87% | 2.36% | 50.1 | 59 | -2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) | 14 | 4.55% | 1.43% | 52.1 | 58 | 6.27% | 1.80% | 55.9 | 56 | +2 |
| Zamir White (LV) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.96% | 46.8 | 59 | 1.25% | 1.58% | 52.1 | 58 | +1 |
| Royce Freeman | 10 | 0.00% | 2.60% | 43.7 | 60 | 0.15% | 3.45% | 47.7 | 60 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 7.50% | 36.9 | 61 | 0.26% | 4.80% | 30.5 | 69 | -8 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 10 | 0.00% | 3.92% | 35.9 | 62 | 0.19% | 3.54% | 34.8 | 65 | -3 |
| Cam Akers (MIN) | 7 | 0.00% | 3.33% | 35.7 | 63 | 1.23% | 2.87% | 34.9 | 64 | -1 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 11 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 34.2 | 64 | 3.88% | 0.44% | 32.9 | 67 | -3 |
| Darrell Henderson Jr. | 4 | 0.00% | 4.35% | 33.5 | 65 | 3.64% | 3.87% | 35.2 | 63 | +2 |
| Jamaal Williams (NO) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.94% | 33.4 | 66 | 0.78% | 1.44% | 37.5 | 61 | +5 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 14 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 32.9 | 67 | 3.05% | 1.17% | 34.7 | 66 | +1 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. (CLE) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.59% | 31.3 | 68 | 0.29% | 1.71% | 31.9 | 68 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 16 | 0.00% | 1.82% | 29.9 | 69 | 0.28% | 1.49% | 29.2 | 70 | -1 |
| Elijah Mitchell (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.67% | 28.8 | 70 | 2.26% | 4.29% | 37.2 | 62 | +8 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson (PIT) | 12 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 25.9 | 71 | 6.55% | 1.48% | 29.0 | 71 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook (DAL) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.2 | 72 | 0.21% | 0.76% | 28.5 | 72 | 0 |
| Tony Jones Jr. | 6 | 0.00% | 7.69% | 25.2 | 73 | 2.78% | 6.16% | 24.5 | 77 | -4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson (JAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.9 | 74 | 0.23% | 0.69% | 26.8 | 74 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds (DET) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 24.6 | 75 | 0.34% | 3.58% | 27.5 | 73 | +2 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 8 | 14.29% | 0.00% | 24.0 | 76 | 8.60% | 0.73% | 22.9 | 79 | -3 |
| Chase Edmonds (TB) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.3 | 77 | 0.29% | 0.38% | 24.7 | 76 | +1 |
| Darrynton Evans (CHI) | 6 | 0.00% | 3.13% | 23.0 | 78 | 1.21% | 2.71% | 23.1 | 78 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.8 | 79 | 0.99% | 1.19% | 26.7 | 75 | +4 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAC) | 14 | 0.00% | 4.00% | 20.2 | 80 | 1.17% | 3.80% | 19.9 | 82 | -2 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 19.4 | 81 | 0.23% | 2.02% | 18.5 | 83 | -2 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | 2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.1 | 82 | 0.94% | 0.64% | 20.4 | 81 | +1 |
| Patrick Taylor Jr. (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.0 | 83 | 1.35% | 1.21% | 22.7 | 80 | +3 |
| Trey Sermon (IND) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.3 | 84 | 0.20% | 0.41% | 18.2 | 84 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon III | 3 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 16.9 | 85 | 0.52% | 2.89% | 15.5 | 85 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.0 | 86 | 1.15% | 0.74% | 15.1 | 86 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram (KC) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.0 | 87 | 0.27% | 0.38% | 10.9 | 87 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers (LAR) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.9 | 88 | 0.85% | 0.27% | 10.7 | 88 | 0 |
