Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 16 | 8.43% | 5.15% | 391.3 | 1 | 7.02% | 4.63% | 375.9 | 1 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 1.37% | 4.12% | 268.7 | 2 | 1.15% | 3.35% | 255.4 | 2 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 15 | 9.38% | 8.61% | 267.7 | 3 | 7.22% | 6.87% | 241.7 | 7 | -4 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 16 | 4.21% | 2.24% | 261.5 | 4 | 3.04% | 1.73% | 247.9 | 6 | -2 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 12 | 6.25% | 5.26% | 255.0 | 5 | 6.06% | 4.88% | 249.2 | 5 | 0 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 16 | 4.29% | 2.21% | 254.6 | 6 | 3.27% | 2.37% | 253.0 | 3 | +3 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 16 | 4.69% | 3.50% | 242.3 | 7 | 4.70% | 4.07% | 251.0 | 4 | +3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 14 | 1.41% | 5.49% | 233.1 | 8 | 2.30% | 4.67% | 227.9 | 9 | -1 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 13 | 1.15% | 2.78% | 233.0 | 9 | 1.35% | 3.38% | 240.6 | 8 | +1 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.29% | 225.4 | 10 | 1.01% | 3.70% | 217.8 | 12 | -2 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.84% | 224.5 | 11 | 5.52% | 1.45% | 226.9 | 10 | +1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 4.65% | 1.87% | 220.2 | 12 | 4.19% | 1.74% | 216.1 | 13 | -1 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 14 | 4.08% | 3.41% | 213.9 | 13 | 4.39% | 3.28% | 213.1 | 14 | -1 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 16 | 7.94% | 1.96% | 206.0 | 14 | 5.06% | 1.76% | 192.7 | 16 | -2 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.37% | 206.0 | 15 | 1.51% | 3.25% | 225.4 | 11 | +4 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 13 | 6.67% | 2.43% | 199.5 | 16 | 4.65% | 2.40% | 191.8 | 17 | -1 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 16 | 2.04% | 2.18% | 199.3 | 17 | 1.99% | 2.90% | 209.1 | 15 | +2 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 13 | 0.00% | 5.94% | 197.2 | 18 | 0.45% | 5.38% | 190.5 | 18 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 14 | 2.70% | 3.65% | 190.3 | 19 | 2.00% | 3.68% | 189.1 | 20 | -1 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.68% | 188.4 | 20 | 0.78% | 2.48% | 190.0 | 19 | +1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 14 | 9.30% | 2.81% | 187.6 | 21 | 6.20% | 2.76% | 179.1 | 23 | -2 |
| Gus Edwards (LAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 6.57% | 184.2 | 22 | 0.27% | 6.08% | 178.7 | 24 | -2 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 13 | 0.00% | 2.58% | 181.1 | 23 | 1.45% | 2.77% | 188.5 | 21 | +2 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 10 | 8.11% | 7.77% | 177.6 | 24 | 6.61% | 5.55% | 160.6 | 31 | -7 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 13 | 1.35% | 2.79% | 173.5 | 25 | 1.97% | 3.66% | 185.5 | 22 | +3 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.10% | 171.3 | 26 | 0.37% | 2.45% | 177.2 | 25 | +1 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.14% | 171.2 | 27 | 1.32% | 2.98% | 171.8 | 26 | +1 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 12 | 6.06% | 3.37% | 171.1 | 28 | 4.48% | 3.35% | 167.7 | 28 | 0 |
| Zack Moss (CIN) | 13 | 5.41% | 2.73% | 166.6 | 29 | 4.11% | 3.22% | 169.1 | 27 | +2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) | 16 | 3.08% | 1.63% | 161.4 | 30 | 2.15% | 1.82% | 159.9 | 32 | -2 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 15 | 3.45% | 1.38% | 158.7 | 31 | 3.29% | 2.05% | 166.8 | 29 | +2 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.85% | 153.8 | 32 | 1.03% | 2.28% | 161.7 | 30 | +2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 145.7 | 33 | 0.67% | 2.18% | 144.1 | 34 | -1 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 16 | 1.43% | 2.00% | 132.2 | 34 | 1.83% | 2.01% | 133.9 | 35 | -1 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 4.35% | 2.15% | 131.2 | 35 | 3.12% | 2.36% | 131.9 | 36 | -1 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 15 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 129.3 | 36 | 6.87% | 1.39% | 144.5 | 33 | +3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 9 | 4.35% | 4.14% | 128.8 | 37 | 4.17% | 3.97% | 126.8 | 38 | -1 |
| Antonio Gibson (NE) | 15 | 3.39% | 1.54% | 120.8 | 38 | 2.63% | 1.54% | 118.1 | 41 | -3 |
| AJ Dillon (GB) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.12% | 117.6 | 39 | 0.54% | 2.32% | 131.3 | 37 | +2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 14 | 0.00% | 6.67% | 117.0 | 40 | 0.49% | 5.74% | 110.1 | 42 | -2 |
| Aaron Jones (MIN) | 10 | 2.33% | 1.41% | 115.8 | 41 | 2.80% | 2.37% | 125.2 | 39 | +2 |
| Samaje Perine (KC) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.89% | 115.3 | 42 | 0.67% | 2.91% | 120.8 | 40 | +2 |
| Khalil Herbert (CIN) | 11 | 3.23% | 1.52% | 106.4 | 43 | 3.37% | 1.41% | 105.8 | 45 | -2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 16 | 5.56% | 1.32% | 105.4 | 44 | 4.25% | 1.58% | 103.8 | 46 | -2 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 15 | 2.56% | 3.57% | 103.7 | 45 | 1.75% | 3.65% | 102.2 | 47 | -2 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.47% | 100.1 | 46 | 1.12% | 3.10% | 105.9 | 44 | +2 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.93% | 98.1 | 47 | 0.48% | 2.33% | 108.3 | 43 | +4 |
| D'Onta Foreman (CLE) | 9 | 6.25% | 3.67% | 91.2 | 48 | 5.67% | 3.55% | 89.9 | 52 | -4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.38% | 91.2 | 49 | 0.44% | 2.94% | 95.0 | 48 | +1 |
| Ty Chandler (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.94% | 90.1 | 50 | 1.41% | 2.45% | 89.2 | 53 | -3 |
| Miles Sanders (CAR) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.78% | 85.8 | 51 | 0.68% | 1.37% | 92.1 | 50 | +1 |
| Latavius Murray | 16 | 0.00% | 5.06% | 82.9 | 52 | 2.74% | 6.19% | 91.8 | 51 | +1 |
| Dameon Pierce (HOU) | 13 | 0.00% | 1.38% | 82.7 | 53 | 0.68% | 2.41% | 92.4 | 49 | +4 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 15 | 9.09% | 2.25% | 78.5 | 54 | 5.99% | 2.62% | 76.4 | 54 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado (ARI) | 12 | 0.00% | 3.45% | 73.3 | 55 | 0.87% | 2.36% | 71.1 | 56 | -1 |
| Keaton Mitchell (BAL) | 7 | 0.00% | 4.26% | 69.9 | 56 | 1.03% | 2.55% | 65.8 | 58 | -2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) | 14 | 4.55% | 1.43% | 68.1 | 57 | 6.27% | 1.80% | 71.9 | 55 | +2 |
| Joshua Kelley (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.87% | 61.6 | 58 | 0.37% | 1.98% | 62.6 | 59 | -1 |
| Zamir White (LV) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.96% | 60.8 | 59 | 1.25% | 1.58% | 66.1 | 57 | +2 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 14 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 55.9 | 60 | 3.05% | 1.17% | 57.7 | 60 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams (NO) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.94% | 48.4 | 61 | 0.78% | 1.44% | 52.5 | 61 | 0 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 11 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 47.2 | 62 | 3.88% | 0.44% | 45.9 | 65 | -3 |
| Matt Breida | 16 | 0.00% | 1.82% | 46.9 | 63 | 0.28% | 1.49% | 46.2 | 63 | 0 |
| Cam Akers (MIN) | 7 | 0.00% | 3.33% | 46.7 | 64 | 1.23% | 2.87% | 45.9 | 64 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 10 | 0.00% | 2.60% | 43.7 | 65 | 0.15% | 3.45% | 47.7 | 62 | +3 |
| Darrell Henderson Jr. | 4 | 0.00% | 4.35% | 43.5 | 66 | 3.64% | 3.87% | 45.2 | 66 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook (DAL) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.2 | 67 | 0.21% | 0.76% | 43.5 | 67 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 7.50% | 38.9 | 68 | 0.26% | 4.80% | 32.5 | 77 | -9 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 10 | 0.00% | 3.92% | 37.9 | 69 | 0.19% | 3.54% | 36.8 | 73 | -4 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 36.8 | 70 | 0.99% | 1.19% | 40.7 | 69 | +1 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. (CLE) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.59% | 36.3 | 71 | 0.29% | 1.71% | 36.9 | 72 | -1 |
| Chase Edmonds (TB) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 36.3 | 72 | 0.29% | 0.38% | 37.7 | 71 | +1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson (PIT) | 12 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 34.9 | 73 | 6.55% | 1.48% | 38.0 | 70 | +3 |
| D'Ernest Johnson (JAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 34.9 | 74 | 0.23% | 0.69% | 36.8 | 74 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.67% | 32.8 | 75 | 2.26% | 4.29% | 41.2 | 68 | +7 |
| Tony Jones Jr. | 6 | 0.00% | 7.69% | 32.2 | 76 | 2.78% | 6.16% | 31.5 | 78 | -2 |
| Patrick Taylor Jr. (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 77 | 1.35% | 1.21% | 33.7 | 75 | +2 |
| Darrynton Evans (CHI) | 6 | 0.00% | 3.13% | 30.0 | 78 | 1.21% | 2.71% | 30.1 | 79 | -1 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 8 | 14.29% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 79 | 8.60% | 0.73% | 28.9 | 80 | -1 |
| Craig Reynolds (DET) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 29.6 | 80 | 0.34% | 3.58% | 32.5 | 76 | +4 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 28.4 | 81 | 0.23% | 2.02% | 27.5 | 81 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | 2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.1 | 82 | 0.94% | 0.64% | 24.4 | 82 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAC) | 14 | 0.00% | 4.00% | 21.2 | 83 | 1.17% | 3.80% | 20.9 | 85 | -2 |
| Trey Sermon (IND) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.3 | 84 | 0.20% | 0.41% | 21.2 | 83 | +1 |
| Melvin Gordon III | 3 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 19.9 | 85 | 0.52% | 2.89% | 18.5 | 86 | -1 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.0 | 86 | 1.15% | 0.74% | 21.1 | 84 | +2 |
| Ronnie Rivers (LAR) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.9 | 87 | 0.85% | 0.27% | 15.7 | 87 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram (KC) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.0 | 88 | 0.27% | 0.38% | 14.9 | 88 | 0 |
