Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 16 | 8.43% | 5.15% | 357.8 | 1 | 7.02% | 4.63% | 342.4 | 1 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 15 | 9.38% | 8.61% | 255.2 | 2 | 7.22% | 6.87% | 229.2 | 3 | -1 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 1.37% | 4.12% | 242.2 | 3 | 1.15% | 3.35% | 228.9 | 4 | -1 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 12 | 6.25% | 5.26% | 239.0 | 4 | 6.06% | 4.88% | 233.2 | 2 | +2 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 16 | 4.29% | 2.21% | 224.6 | 5 | 3.27% | 2.37% | 223.0 | 6 | -1 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 16 | 4.21% | 2.24% | 224.5 | 6 | 3.04% | 1.73% | 210.9 | 7 | -1 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 16 | 4.69% | 3.50% | 216.8 | 7 | 4.70% | 4.07% | 225.5 | 5 | +2 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.29% | 211.4 | 8 | 1.01% | 3.70% | 203.8 | 9 | -1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 14 | 1.41% | 5.49% | 207.1 | 9 | 2.30% | 4.67% | 201.9 | 11 | -2 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.84% | 204.0 | 10 | 5.52% | 1.45% | 206.4 | 8 | +2 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 13 | 1.15% | 2.78% | 195.5 | 11 | 1.35% | 3.38% | 203.1 | 10 | +1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 4.65% | 1.87% | 194.7 | 12 | 4.19% | 1.74% | 190.6 | 14 | -2 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 14 | 4.08% | 3.41% | 191.9 | 13 | 4.39% | 3.28% | 191.1 | 13 | 0 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 13 | 0.00% | 5.94% | 189.2 | 14 | 0.45% | 5.38% | 182.5 | 16 | -2 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 16 | 7.94% | 1.96% | 185.0 | 15 | 5.06% | 1.76% | 171.7 | 20 | -5 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 13 | 6.67% | 2.43% | 180.0 | 16 | 4.65% | 2.40% | 172.3 | 19 | -3 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 16 | 2.04% | 2.18% | 179.8 | 17 | 1.99% | 2.90% | 189.6 | 15 | +2 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.37% | 179.5 | 18 | 1.51% | 3.25% | 198.9 | 12 | +6 |
| Gus Edwards (LAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 6.57% | 178.2 | 19 | 0.27% | 6.08% | 172.7 | 18 | +1 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 14 | 2.70% | 3.65% | 176.3 | 20 | 2.00% | 3.68% | 175.1 | 17 | +3 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 14 | 9.30% | 2.81% | 171.1 | 21 | 6.20% | 2.76% | 162.6 | 23 | -2 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 10 | 8.11% | 7.77% | 164.6 | 22 | 6.61% | 5.55% | 147.6 | 29 | -7 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 13 | 0.00% | 2.58% | 162.6 | 23 | 1.45% | 2.77% | 170.0 | 21 | +2 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.68% | 160.4 | 24 | 0.78% | 2.48% | 162.0 | 24 | 0 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 12 | 6.06% | 3.37% | 159.6 | 25 | 4.48% | 3.35% | 156.2 | 27 | -2 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.14% | 159.2 | 26 | 1.32% | 2.98% | 159.8 | 25 | +1 |
| Zack Moss (CIN) | 13 | 5.41% | 2.73% | 153.1 | 27 | 4.11% | 3.22% | 155.6 | 28 | -1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.10% | 152.8 | 28 | 0.37% | 2.45% | 158.7 | 26 | +2 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 13 | 1.35% | 2.79% | 151.5 | 29 | 1.97% | 3.66% | 163.5 | 22 | +7 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.85% | 139.3 | 30 | 1.03% | 2.28% | 147.2 | 30 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 15 | 3.45% | 1.38% | 138.7 | 31 | 3.29% | 2.05% | 146.8 | 31 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) | 16 | 3.08% | 1.63% | 138.4 | 32 | 2.15% | 1.82% | 136.9 | 32 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 126.7 | 33 | 0.67% | 2.18% | 125.1 | 34 | -1 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 4.35% | 2.15% | 123.7 | 34 | 3.12% | 2.36% | 124.4 | 35 | -1 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 9 | 4.35% | 4.14% | 120.3 | 35 | 4.17% | 3.97% | 118.3 | 37 | -2 |
| Alexander Mattison (LV) | 15 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 114.8 | 36 | 6.87% | 1.39% | 130.0 | 33 | +3 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 14 | 0.00% | 6.67% | 110.0 | 37 | 0.49% | 5.74% | 103.1 | 40 | -3 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 16 | 1.43% | 2.00% | 107.7 | 38 | 1.83% | 2.01% | 109.4 | 39 | -1 |
| AJ Dillon (GB) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.12% | 106.6 | 39 | 0.54% | 2.32% | 120.3 | 36 | +3 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN) | 10 | 2.33% | 1.41% | 103.3 | 40 | 2.80% | 2.37% | 112.7 | 38 | +2 |
| Antonio Gibson (NE) | 15 | 3.39% | 1.54% | 98.3 | 41 | 2.63% | 1.54% | 95.6 | 43 | -2 |
| Khalil Herbert (CIN) | 11 | 3.23% | 1.52% | 97.4 | 42 | 3.37% | 1.41% | 96.8 | 42 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine (KC) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.89% | 91.8 | 43 | 0.67% | 2.91% | 97.3 | 41 | +2 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 15 | 2.56% | 3.57% | 91.2 | 44 | 1.75% | 3.65% | 89.7 | 45 | -1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 16 | 5.56% | 1.32% | 89.9 | 45 | 4.25% | 1.58% | 88.3 | 47 | -2 |
| D'Onta Foreman (CLE) | 9 | 6.25% | 3.67% | 85.7 | 46 | 5.67% | 3.55% | 84.4 | 49 | -3 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.47% | 83.1 | 47 | 1.12% | 3.10% | 88.9 | 46 | +1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.93% | 82.6 | 48 | 0.48% | 2.33% | 92.8 | 44 | +4 |
| Ty Chandler (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.94% | 80.6 | 49 | 1.41% | 2.45% | 79.7 | 52 | -3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.38% | 76.2 | 50 | 0.44% | 2.94% | 80.0 | 51 | -1 |
| Dameon Pierce (HOU) | 13 | 0.00% | 1.38% | 76.2 | 51 | 0.68% | 2.41% | 85.9 | 48 | +3 |
| Latavius Murray | 16 | 0.00% | 5.06% | 74.4 | 52 | 2.74% | 6.19% | 83.3 | 50 | +2 |
| Miles Sanders (CAR) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.78% | 72.3 | 53 | 0.68% | 1.37% | 78.6 | 53 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 15 | 9.09% | 2.25% | 71.5 | 54 | 5.99% | 2.62% | 69.4 | 54 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell (BAL) | 7 | 0.00% | 4.26% | 65.4 | 55 | 1.03% | 2.55% | 61.3 | 56 | -1 |
| Emari Demercado (ARI) | 12 | 0.00% | 3.45% | 62.8 | 56 | 0.87% | 2.36% | 60.6 | 57 | -1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (NO) | 14 | 4.55% | 1.43% | 60.1 | 57 | 6.27% | 1.80% | 63.9 | 55 | +2 |
| Joshua Kelley (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.87% | 57.6 | 58 | 0.37% | 1.98% | 58.6 | 59 | -1 |
| Zamir White (LV) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.96% | 53.8 | 59 | 1.25% | 1.58% | 59.1 | 58 | +1 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 14 | 3.23% | 0.00% | 44.4 | 60 | 3.05% | 1.17% | 46.2 | 61 | -1 |
| Royce Freeman (CHI) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.60% | 43.7 | 61 | 0.15% | 3.45% | 47.7 | 60 | +1 |
| Cam Akers (MIN) | 7 | 0.00% | 3.33% | 41.2 | 62 | 1.23% | 2.87% | 40.4 | 63 | -1 |
| Jamaal Williams (NO) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.94% | 40.9 | 63 | 0.78% | 1.44% | 45.0 | 62 | +1 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 11 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 40.7 | 64 | 3.88% | 0.44% | 39.4 | 65 | -1 |
| Darrell Henderson Jr. | 4 | 0.00% | 4.35% | 38.5 | 65 | 3.64% | 3.87% | 40.2 | 64 | +1 |
| Matt Breida | 16 | 0.00% | 1.82% | 38.4 | 66 | 0.28% | 1.49% | 37.7 | 67 | -1 |
| Jordan Mason (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 7.50% | 37.9 | 67 | 0.26% | 4.80% | 31.5 | 74 | -7 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) | 10 | 0.00% | 3.92% | 36.9 | 68 | 0.19% | 3.54% | 35.8 | 69 | -1 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. (CLE) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.59% | 33.8 | 69 | 0.29% | 1.71% | 34.4 | 70 | -1 |
| Dalvin Cook (DAL) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32.7 | 70 | 0.21% | 0.76% | 36.0 | 68 | +2 |
| Elijah Mitchell (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.67% | 30.8 | 71 | 2.26% | 4.29% | 39.2 | 66 | +5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson (PIT) | 12 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 30.4 | 72 | 6.55% | 1.48% | 33.5 | 72 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson (JAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.9 | 73 | 0.23% | 0.69% | 31.8 | 73 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.8 | 74 | 0.99% | 1.19% | 33.7 | 71 | +3 |
| Chase Edmonds (TB) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.8 | 75 | 0.29% | 0.38% | 31.2 | 75 | 0 |
| Tony Jones Jr. (ARI) | 6 | 0.00% | 7.69% | 28.7 | 76 | 2.78% | 6.16% | 28.0 | 78 | -2 |
| Craig Reynolds (DET) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 27.1 | 77 | 0.34% | 3.58% | 30.0 | 76 | +1 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 8 | 14.29% | 0.00% | 27.0 | 78 | 8.60% | 0.73% | 25.9 | 80 | -2 |
| Darrynton Evans (CHI) | 6 | 0.00% | 3.13% | 26.5 | 79 | 1.21% | 2.71% | 26.6 | 79 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor Jr. (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.5 | 80 | 1.35% | 1.21% | 28.2 | 77 | +3 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 23.9 | 81 | 0.23% | 2.02% | 23.0 | 81 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | 2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21.1 | 82 | 0.94% | 0.64% | 22.4 | 82 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby (JAC) | 14 | 0.00% | 4.00% | 20.7 | 83 | 1.17% | 3.80% | 20.4 | 83 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon (IND) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18.8 | 84 | 0.20% | 0.41% | 19.7 | 84 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon III | 3 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 18.4 | 85 | 0.52% | 2.89% | 17.0 | 86 | -1 |
| Isaiah Spiller (LV) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.0 | 86 | 1.15% | 0.74% | 18.1 | 85 | +1 |
| Ronnie Rivers (LAR) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.4 | 87 | 0.85% | 0.27% | 13.2 | 87 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram (KC) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.0 | 88 | 0.27% | 0.38% | 12.9 | 88 | 0 |
