Fantasy Football Busts: Michael Pittman, Dalton Kincaid, Stefon Diggs

With the Fantasy Football Expo in the rearview mirror from Canton, Ohio, and draft season upon us, managers must put in the time and effort to get a leg up on their competition. Regardless of which platform you use as your host provider (ESPN, Yahoo!, Sleeper, RealTime Fantasy, etc.), an easy task that pays immediate dividends is acclimating yourself to the default rankings and seeing where value or potential pitfalls lie.

Each hosting provider differs slightly in how they evaluate players, creating opportunities to exploit. Understanding these differences can give you a significant competitive advantage when going against competition that relies upon average draft position (ADP) or website-generated rankings.

Most recently, I looked at RealTime Fantasy Sports (RTS for short) and compared their updated 2024 draft rankings to our expert consensus rankings (ECR) at FantasyPros. Their rankings can be found here. There were some interesting differences worth noting, especially about players who had a much higher grade than other providers. RTS isn’t afraid to be bold about endorsing breakout calls, to be sure.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players: RTS Leagues

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman (WR – IND) | ECR – 38th overall/RTS – 16th overall
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU) | ECR – 48th overall/RTS – 13th overall

The folks over at RTS are high on the Indianapolis Colts this season. Michael Pittman’s aggressive rank as their WR9 follows suit with their thoughts on Anthony Richardson, and it makes sense that if they pegged a true breakout season for one, the other should follow suit. Our WR21, Pittman, is coming off the best season of his career, finishing with a 109/1,152/4 split on 156 targets. The unquestioned alpha option for the Colts, Pittman plays the role of an oversized chain-moving option rather than a contested catch or downfield specialist.

The addition of Texas rookie Adonai Mitchell will slightly eat into Pittman’s target share this year, and we expect the team to be more centered on the ground game with Richardson under center. Pittman has the potential for a positive touchdown reception regression (try saying that five times fast), but his ceiling is likely that of a WR2 rather than a back-end WR1.

After six consecutive seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards (five of which he eclipsed the 100-reception mark as well) and a bevy of top-10 finishes at the position, it isn’t easy to think of Diggs as anything other than a WR1 in fantasy football. With that out of the way, it helps to take a step back at the changes that have happened this offseason and the new set of circumstances Diggs finds himself in.

Diggs was traded to Houston during the offseason after a tumultuous departure from Buffalo, where he didn’t feel valued. Now entering his age-31 season, Diggs represents the elder statesman in the receiver room alongside Nick Collins and Tank Dell. He will face stiff competition for targets from C.J. Stroud, and it is unlikely he will ever sniff the near 30% share he had last season in Buffalo again. We are treating Diggs as more of an upside WR3 than a mid-range WR2 this year.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) | ECR – 69th overall/RTS – 42nd overall

Besides Dalton Kincaid, RTS very closely reflected our ECR toward the tight end position. One of the most discussed “sleepers” at the position for 2024, the secret is out on Kincaid, and RTS isn’t afraid to show how bullish they are on his upside. Kincaid finished as the TE15 during his rookie season but showed glimpses of how dominant he could be when fellow Buffalo tight end Dawson Knox was sidelined with a wrist injury midseason.

The departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis opens up a bevy of targets in the passing game, and we anticipate Kincaid (who essentially functions as an oversized receiver in this offense) to inherit a good portion of the vacated looks. An enhanced role in the passing game on a team set for another playoff run makes him a valuable commodity, but 42nd overall is an aggressive stance. Placing him ahead of Jaylen Waddle, Malik Nabers, Derrick Henry and others draws a clear line in the stand that RTS isn’t afraid to get behind.