Overvalued Players: T.J. Hockenson, Nick Chubb, James Conner, Patrick Mahomes

Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering a plethora of options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is FFPC, which caters to higher budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands. The most popular is their flagship contest, the $125 best ball tournament. FFPC uses a full PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception. These are the most obvious overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on FFPC in June. Below are my biggest fades in FFPC drafts.

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): 96.3 ADP

On Underdog and DraftKings it’s not uncommon to see T.J. Hockenson fall into the 150-pick range of drafts, which still feels a tad high for a player coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenario expects Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point he will be expected to get up to speed with a new rookie quarterback. By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The tight end-premium scoring makes the position more valuable, but parting with a top-100 pick for a player who could give you nothing for half a season feels like a steep price to pay. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone until his average draft position (ADP) gets to around 150, which it likely will as we get to training camp when he lands on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.

Kevin O’Connell said T.J. Hockenson is on schedule with his recovery process; he didn’t have a timetable on when Hockenson could return, but said the short-term IR rules might keep the #Vikings from needing to put Hockenson on the PUP list to start the regular season.

– Ben Goessling (@BenGoessling) June 4, 2024

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): 116.9 ADP

Cleveland hasn’t particularly made it sound like they expect Nick Chubb to come back strong in 2024 after bringing in the more than capable D’Onta Foreman to share the workload with Jerome Ford, who was steady last year but far from an every-down type of player. Chubb underwent multiple surgeries to deal with an ACL injury that also included other ligament damage. Last year, Breece Hall showed us that younger running backs coming off a clean ACL tear can be productive straight away. However, when other ligaments are involved, like with JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams and Kyler Murray, then typically it’s a trickier recovery ahead. Not to mention that Chubb is turning 29 this year, and never had the pass-catching upside to bulk his stats. If Chubb can’t break away and is unable to command large volume, it’s tough to imagine him regaining his every-down role. Not to mention the fact Chubb is only back with the Browns because he agreed to a sizable pay cut. Chubb is by far one of the most fun running backs in the league, but expecting him to make a big difference in 2024 might be a little too hopeful. Taking him in this range means passing on a lot of healthy and interesting backs.

James Conner (RB – ARI): 70.0 ADP

When James Conner played with Kyler Murray in 2023 he averaged 18 PPR points per game, almost double the 11 he averaged in games without Murray, so there is a positive case to be made for Conner but he’s being drafted as the RB21, which feels a little excessive. Contrast this to Underdog, where Conner is the RB27 and it feels all the more expensive, even though Conner will add value in the receiving game. Conner currently goes ahead of Zamir White, Jonathan Brooks, Zack Moss and Raheem Mostert, showing what a muddled area this is. At that cost, with rookie Trey Benson lurking, this might be higher than necessary.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): 35.1 ADP

With the additions the Kansas City Chiefs made it’s fair to expect a bounceback season for Patrick Mahomes after a career-worst QB14 finish last year, the first time he finished outside the top six as a starter. Mahomes, though, is currently going as the QB2 on FFPC, ahead of both Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, who have a far bigger weekly upside due to their rushing floor. Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 48 quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 rushing attempts per game. Of that 48, 64% finished as top-12 quarterbacks in points per game with 46% finishing in the top 12 in total points scored. This is the barrier Mahomes has to overcome with excellent efficiency every year. While he’s done it plenty of times in his career, it’s risky at this cost.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target

Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)

NFL T.J. Hockenson Justin Jefferson Jordan Addison Nick Chubb D’Onta Foreman Jerome Ford Breece Hall JK Dobbins Javonte Williams Kyler Murray James Conner Zamir White Zack Moss Raheem Mostert Trey Benson Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts Lamar Jackson