Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers: Derek Carr, Jayden Daniels, Geno Smith (2024)

The 2024 fantasy football 2023 delivered some incredible quarterback values in the later rounds, with C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love and Brock Purdy all finishing as top-12 options at the position, along with the elite Joe Flacco being undrafted.

Quarterback ADP as a whole is lower this year after many of the top options didn’t quite return value in 2023, pushing some values even deeper into the late rounds.

These are the best fantasy football sleepers at quarterback based on the current Underdog Fantasy ADP.

Fantasy Football Sleepers: Best Ball QBs (2024)

Derek Carr (QB – NO) | 201.2 ADP

With an ADP of 201.2 and a wide receiver room that boasts only one true talent in Chris Olave, Derek Carr is occasionally slipping out of some drafts altogether. If you don’t have Olave on your roster, how desperate are you to draft a quarterback who hasn’t finished higher than QB12 since 2016?

However, there is reason for optimism in 2024, and after all, as the QB25, there are plenty of avenues for Carr to return value. Carr finished 2023 with two top-seven fantasy finishes in the final three weeks, along with 264 passing yards and four touchdowns in the Week 18 demolition of the Falcons that served as the final nail in Arthur Smith’s head coaching coffin. From Week 12 onwards, Carr averaged 3.0 passing touchdowns per game, a massive uptick from the 1.0 per game he averaged in Weeks 1-11.

DEREK CARR ???? RASHID SHAHEEDpic.twitter.com/AQdSbdW5up

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) October 15, 2023

A new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak represents a massive upgrade from what was a stale offense in 2023, ranking dead last in the percentage of plays with a player in motion. Kubiak arrives from the 49ers, where he coordinated their passing game in 2024, a team that fully understood motion and other more creative aspects of offense. With Rashid Shaheed seemingly a bigger part of their 2024 plans and Olave still having room to grow, Carr might not be a top-12 quarterback, but a top-18 is well within his range of outcomes, and that would be a decent return on investment.

Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) | 102.3 ADP

If Jayden Daniels was a bit bulkier and didn’t love running face-first into linebackers, he’d likely be drafted 20 picks higher than he currently is. Remember, he is coming off throwing for 3,811 yards and 40 touchdowns in his final season at LSU while also rushing for 1250 yards and 10 touchdowns. That was an average of a massive 11.25 rush attempts per game despite the big hits. It’s hard to imagine that turns into less than 5.0 attempts per game in the NFL, which is a number that bears plenty of significance for dual-threat quarterbacks.

Couldn’t sleep at 5am and wondered why I hadn’t done this already, but here’s Jayden Daniels & Drowning Pool. pic.twitter.com/iOtpkbURqJ

— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) April 23, 2024

In 2022 & 2023 combined, there were 44 instances of a quarterback scoring more than 30.0 points during the fantasy season. Of those 44 instances, 27 (61%) featured a quarterback rushing for five or more attempts, and 22 of those performances involved a quarterback rushing for 39 yards or more. Quarterbacks who rush for over 5.0 attempts per game have a better-than-average chance of giving us a nuclear outcome, something we care greatly about in best ball, where the ceiling is the aim of the game.

If drafting Daniels makes you uncomfortable, then it’s easy enough to build him into three quarterback builds with more safe veterans around him. However, ignoring him completely could be a very expensive choice.

Geno Smith (QB – SEA) | 173.0 ADP

It was a fall from grace for Geno Smith in 2023, after finishing 2022 as a Pro Bowler with a QB rating of 105.3 (the second-highest) and the fourth-most passing touchdowns (30). Smith followed that up with 10 fewer touchdowns in 2024 and regressed in almost every category, including a 5% dip in completion rate, down from the impressive 69.8% in 2023 to 64.7%. If Smith doesn’t turn things around, then he’ll struggle to find another starting job in 2025, but for now, there are reasons to be optimistic.

Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron left to join the Bears, much to Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s delight, and new head coach Mike Macdonald brought in Ryan Grubb from the University of Washington, fresh off a National Championship run, having led one of the best offenses in College Football for three years.

Having added experience to their young offensive line by signing Laken Tomlinson to play guard and drafted better depth with three additional linemen added in the draft, Smith should be kept upright far more than he was in 2023 when he was sacked 31 times. That alone should lead to more passing volume, and Smith can bounce back thanks to the excellent receivers surrounding him.