Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts: Justin Herbert & Will Levis (2024)

Writing about players to avoid/potential busts is one of my favorite annual topics in fantasy football. It’s far too easy to fall in love with every player, but realistically, you can’t afford to have equal exposure to every player, especially those high up on the draft board. You need to be more critical and sometimes bearish compared to the consensus on certain player average draft positions (ADPs).

Before the 2023 season, I published two pieces addressing this strategy: Fantasy Football Bust Guide: Draft Strategy & Advice (2023) and Players to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football). These articles significantly helped position me to sidestep potential pitfalls. In this comprehensive piece, we’ll integrate insights from both articles to help you construct your 2024 list of fantasy football fades.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

I wanted to put Justin Herbert in this article because the market has soured on him like no other top fantasy QB before. And I can’t say that his suppressed ADP isn’t warranted. It is given the unknown of a run-heavy offense orchestrated by Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both gone. Herbert’s 2024 outlook is hardly perfect. But behind an upgraded OL, with an easy schedule and Herbert’s talent as the QB17 off the board…we’ve gone way too far.

Remember, fantasy QB scoring is more tied to rushing and passing efficiency, not necessarily raw passing volume. I believe the market is overestimating the projected rushing of LA’s offense and not considering Herbert’s passing abilities enough.

In 2023, 13 games of healthy Herbert equaled the QB5 in points per game at 19.8. 6th-highest top-6 weekly finisher rate. 5th-highest weekly QB1 rate. When Lamar Jackson played under Greg Roman in Baltimore, the Ravens QB posted a top-7 passing TD rate in three of four seasons. 6.3% TD passing rate overall. That’s better than any TD passing rate Herbert has accomplished during his four-year career. It would have ranked second last season. There’s also a chance Herbert is used more as a rusher, further adding to his upside case.

The Chargers have the second-easiest schedule this year compared to the 27th-most difficult in 2023. They will host the Raiders to open the season, followed by two road games versus the Panthers and Steelers. You don’t need to squint too hard to see the Bolts starting the season on a high note. And you better believe that positive game scripts will allow Jim Harbaugh to establish the run with RB1 Gus Edwards. So even if Herbert’s outlook to start the season is slightly bumpy, it just takes one negative game script to see him realize his late-round potential. Week 4 against the Chiefs should be the perfect jump start for him to post strong passing stats.

Still, I’ll admit that given the lack of early-season schedule appeal, Herbert likely won’t be my No. 1 late-round QB option. In the player pool, yes but not my favorite. For that reason, he is also a QB I’d shy away from in Superflex formats inside the top 3 rounds. Most median projections have Herbert in the QB15 range.

I’d also like to point out one coaching move that works in favor of Herbert that is not being discussed enough.

The Chargers brought back Shane Day as the QBs coach on Harbaugh’s coaching staff. Day spent last season with the Texans (senior offensive assistant) after serving as pass game coordinator and QB coach for the Chargers in 2021-22. Herbert’s a big fan. Before LA, he was hired as the quarterbacks coach under head coach Kyle Shanahan from 2019-2020.

We could see something like Jimmy Garoppolo’s ’19 stat line for Herbert in 2024. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards (nearly 250 yards/game) and 27 TDs. That team ranked 30^th in pass attempts per game. He was the fantasy QB14.

Will Levis (QB – TEN)

The Titans’ Will Levis will likely be discussed as a popular late-round QB. Not for me. Here’s why. Week 1 at the Bears and their vastly improved defense. Week 2. Jets. No thanks. It’s a new offense that could take some time for things to gel.