4 Early-Round Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2024)

Every round of fantasy football drafts will contain mines detrimental to long-term success. These “busts” can be particularly frustrating due to injury or unforeseen off-field issues. The unfortunate reality is these situations cannot be avoided and will occur to all managers at some point.

That being said, certain fantasy profiles have alarming traits that are more predictable and should serve as a sign of caution to drafters. Among the players who have failed to live up to the offseason hype, there are a number of recurring themes. For one, players who are past their primes tend to be unwise investments in fantasy. While this may seem trivial, these players tend to be overpriced based on name-value and potential for volume. The dip in production tends to happen much faster than we predict, especially at the RB position.

Another important red flag to consider is touchdown dependency. We see players over-perform in fantasy due to an anomaly season in the touchdown department. This will result in them flying up draft boards in the subsequent year. Nevertheless, it’s essential to acknowledge the potential for touchdown regression and the resulting decrease in fantasy production.

For this exercise, we will analyze players available in each round of a 12-team, half-PPR league. Here are fantasy football draft picks to avoid in each round.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid

Round 1: A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)

Admittedly, it was quite difficult to pinpoint a player with significant holes in their fantasy profile in Round 1 of drafts. With that said, A.J. Brown’s WR7 finish in 2023 was slightly misleading. Outside of an absurd six-game stretch during which he broke the record for consecutive games with 125 receiving yards, he struggled to find consistency. He failed to tally more than 10 yards on two different occasions. With the arrival of Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia, there are plenty of mouths to feed in this offense. At times, the Eagles will lean on the likes of Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to see games out. This will lead to more fantasy inconsistency for Brown.

Round 2: Davante Adams (WR – LV)

As incredible as Davante Adams has been over the years, he is a player on the tail-end of his career. By all accounts, he showed significant signs of regression in 2023. He posted his lowest marks in Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade, passer rating when targeted and yards after the catch per reception since 2017. The uninspiring QB tandem of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell is unlikely to help reverse this trend. What’s more, target volume will be limited in this slow-paced offensive system. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce has repeatedly expressed the desire to run the ball at an incredibly high rate.

#Raiders coach Antonio Pierce on the impression he wants people coming away with when they watch his team:

“First and foremost, just a mentally tough team. A team that you see out there, saying, ‘Damn, that’s how football’s supposed to be played.’ Running the ball, stopping the… pic.twitter.com/7cKCJyhnjW

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 8, 2023

Round 3: Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)

Like Adams, Stefon Diggs is a household name on the wrong side of his prime. He’s now part of a Houston WR core where, according to nearly every statistical metric, he is the third-best option at C.J. Stroud‘s disposal. In 2023, Nico Collins and Tank Dell outperformed Diggs in PFF receiving grade, yards per route run and yards per reception. He will inevitably lose the competition for targets against the younger and more explosive weapons on this roster. For all three WRs to return value, C.J. Stroud will need to have a historic season. As much promise as the latter showed in his rookie season, predicting that level of production is simply unsound. Dell and Collins are much better investments to make in 2024.

Round 4: Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Josh Jacobs was one of the worst RBs in the league last season. Among 49 RBs with at least 100 carries, he ranked 40th in PFF rushing grade. He also posted career lows in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced, per PFF. Packers head coach Matt Lafleur has consistently opted for an RBBC approach in Green Bay. Jacobs will therefore cede touches to the the likes of A.J. Dillon and MarShawn Lloyd throughout the season. He’ll struggle to provide the efficiency or volume required to be worth the fourth-round investment in drafts.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target

Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)

NFL A.J. Brown Saquon Barkley DeVonta Smith Dallas Goedert Davante Adams Gardner Minshew Stefon Diggs C.J. Stroud Nico Collins Tank Dell Josh Jacobs A.J. Dillon MarShawn Lloyd