Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans

• HOU -3, O/U 47.5
• Broncos vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Houston has ranked eighth in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last five games, Denvers has had the fifth-slowest neutral pace while bolstering the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Wilson has been turned into a low-ceiling game manager this season. He is the QB16 in fantasy points per game, with only one game above 250 yards passing since Week 4. What has kept his fantasy value afloat as a QB2 is passing touchdowns and his rushing equity. Over his last eight games, Wilson has four weeks with multiple passing scores while averaging 5.8 carries and 26.1 rushing yards. To Wilson’s credit, he has been a damn good game manager. While he has ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 24th in passing yards per game, and 22nd in passing attempts, he is also fifth in passing touchdowns, second in adjusted completion rate, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. Wilson should be able to turn in another efficient performance this week against a Texans’ pass defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest passer rating. Week 13 Positional Value: QB2

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is the QB5 in fantasy, ranking second in passing yards, seventh in passing touchdowns, and ninth in red zone passing attempts. Stroud is third in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, and 13th in CPOE. Stroud runs into a Denver pass defense that has been playing incredible football. Since Week 7, they have kept passers in check with the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the 11th-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. The one area that Denver has struggled against is play-action passing. Since Week 7, Denver has allowed the sixth-highest passer rating, the second-highest adjusted completion rate, and the seventh-most passing touchdowns to play-action passing. Stroud ranks 13th in play-action dropbacks, fourth in play-action yards per attempt, and fifth in play-action passing yards. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Javonte Williams: Since Week 7, Williams has averaged 21.4 touches and 85.6 total yards as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. Williams has played anywhere from 49% of the snaps to 70% of the snaps (last week) weekly. Among 55 qualifying backs, Williams is sixth in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Williams will run into brick walls all day against a Houston run defense that since Week 7 has allowed the 12th-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt while also flaunting the highest stuff rate. Williams is a volume-driven RB2. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2

Samaje Perine: Perine has played less than 30% of the snaps in three of his last five games, averaging 5.6 touches and 47.6 total yards. Perine is the RB41 with only two red zone touches in his last six games. With a tough matchup on deck, Perine is a must-sit. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the 12th-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt while also flaunting the highest stuff rate. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

Devin Singletary: Last week, with Pierce returning, Singletary still played 82% of the snaps with 12 touches and 72 total yards. He saw a huge uptick in pass game usage with seven targets, six receptions, and 54 receiving yards. Since Week 10, Singletary has played at least 81% of the snaps weekly, averaging 22.3 touches and 117 total yards as the RB6 in fantasy. Singletary is eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 36th in explosive run rate. Since Week 7, the Broncos have continued to struggle to stop rushing attacks, ranking eighth in explosive run rate and second in yards after contact per attempt with the highest missed tackles per attempt. Houston could feed Singletary another 20-25 touches this week. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Dameon Pierce: In his return, Pierce played a distant second fiddle to Devin Singletary with only 11 snaps played (18%), six touches and 18 total yards. It looks like this backfield belongs to Singletary. Pierce is droppable. Week 13 Positional Value: Droppable

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton is the WR25 in fantasy, ranking sixth in red zone targets and third in total touchdowns among wide receivers. Sutton has scored in eight of 11 games this season, including five games in a row. That streak was snapped last week. Sutton has a 21.3% target share, a 39.0% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 26.3% first-read share. Since Week 7, Houston has utilized two-high at the fourth-highest rate (58.2%). Against two-high, Sutton has seen his target share decrease to 19.4% with a 39.8% air-yard share, 1.51 YPRR, and a 24.1% first read share. Sutton will run about 76% of his routes against Derek Stingley Jr. (70.6% catch rate and 112.6 passer rating) and Steven Nelson (62.5% catch rate and 71.9 passer rating). Sutton should have a productive day against a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy is the WR56 in Fantasy. Since Week 3, he has only one game with more than 60 receiving yards. Denver has been trying to get him going with four red zone targets over his last four games. Since Week 7, Houston has utilized two-high at the fourth-highest rate (58.2%). Against two-high, Jeudy has had a 15.8% target share with 1.01 YPRR and a 25.0% first-read share. He has a crippling 0.21 fantasy points per route run against two-high. Jeudy is a sit this week, assuming that he is active. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

Marvin Mims: Since Week 10, Mims has seen an uptick in his playing time with a 64.6% route run rate, which ranks third on the team during this timeframe. In these three games, Mims has drawn an 8.1% target share and a 15.5% air-yard share with only 0.56 YPRR, so it’s not like he has set the world on fire, but he offers some intrigue in this game and moving forward. Since Week 7, Houston has allowed the most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while also ranking 15th in PPR points per target allowed to slot receivers. He and Sutton are in good spots in this game. Also working in Mims’ favor is the fact that since Week 7, Houston has utilized two-high at the fourth-highest rate (58.2%). Mims has been the team’s most effective receiver against two-high with 2.25 YPRR and 6.4 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception (both lead the team, minimum 25 routes against two-high). Among 119 qualifying wide receivers against two-high, Mims ranks 20th in YPRR, ninth in YAC per reception, and 28th in fantasy points per route run against two-high. This quietly could be the liftoff game for Mims. This is why you should consider stashing Mims now. His upcoming schedule is beautiful. After the Texans, he gets the Chargers, Lions, Patriots, and Chargers. Since Week 7, those teams rank 12th, second, and fourth in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. He could be a stretch-run difference-maker. Week 13 Positional Value: Flex Dart throw

Nico Collins: In the seven games this season that Collins and Dell have been full-time players, Collins has had a 21.0% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, 3.05 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Collins has seven red zone targets over his last four games. Since Week 7, Denver has utilized single-high on 56.8% of their defensive snaps. In those seven games against single-high, Collins has had a 22.3% target share, a 24.2% air-yard share, 4.40 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share (ted with Dell). The biggest issue for Collins is that he will likely see shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain this week. Collins has been a boundary receiver all season, with only one game with higher than a 26.9% slot rate. Surtain has only rolled into the slot for 19 snaps this season, so it should be easy for Surtain (62.7% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating) to stay with him. Surtain has seven games this season in which he has followed the opposing team’s top receiver for at least 57.7% of their routes. The list of receivers is insane. Surtain has shadowed Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson, D.J. Moore, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. Only Hill and Moore surpassed 40 receiving yards in primary coverage with Surtain, and none of them scored touchdowns while shadowed by Surtain. Downgrade Collins this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tank Dell: Dell opened the week with a DNP (calf). He returned to limited sessions on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable. In the seven games this season, with Dell and Nico Collins both playing full-time roles, Dell has had a 21.4% target share, a 35.1% air-yard share, 2.60 YPRR, and a 23.2% first-read share. Since Week 7, Denver has utilized single-high on 56.8% of their defensive snaps. In those seven games against single-high, Dell has had a 25.2% target share, a 37.2% air-yard share, 2.93 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share. Houston has slid Dell inside to the slot on three occasions this season, with Dell seeing a 34.3-42.2% slot rate. They could easily do that again this week to keep Dell away from Surtain. I’m projecting Collins to get the Surtain shadow, which means Dell will see Fabian Moreau (59.3% catch rate and 57.9 passer rating) and Ja’Quan McMillian (60% catch rate and 83.1 passer rating) all day in coverage. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2

Robert Woods: In the five games, Woods has played with Dell and Collins as full-gos, he has had an 18.2% target share, a 24.6% air-yard share, 1.83 YPRR, and a 19.4% first-read share against single-high. Since Week 7, Denver has utilized single-high on 56.8% of their defensive snaps. In those five games, Woods only once cleared 45 yards receiving. If Noah Brown is back this week, Woods is the candidate to see his snaps cut. I don’t see Houston taking Collins or Dell off the field for Brown. Sit Woods. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

Noah Brown: Brown was limited on Wednesday and Thursday (knee). He missed practice on Friday and has been listed as questionable. Even if he plays, I’m not sure that he sees a full workload. The reality is you probably have better flex options this week than Brown, even if he plays. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Schultz didn’t practice at all this week (hamstring). He has been ruled out.

Brevin Jordan: Jordan should assume the starting role this week. When he has been active this season, he has had a 13% target per route run rate with 1.33 YPRR. Jordan could be featured more this week, with Dell banged up and Collins likely seeing a shadow from Surtain. Jordan is THE tight-end streaming option this week against the best matchup for tight ends on the board. Denver has allowed the most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 13 Positional Value: TE streaming option with TE1 upside

SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC

Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -4, O/U 40.5
• Browns vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Matthew Stafford‘s return, the Rams have ranked 17th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral rushing rate.
• The Browns rank fifth in neutral pace this season, but that could fluctuate widely depending on who is under center. What should remain constant is the Browns’ love for the run. They are ninth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco: Flacco gets the start this week for Cleveland. The last time we saw him under center for the Jets in 2022, it wasn’t pretty. In Weeks 1-3 to open the season, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 30th in yards per attempt, 15th in adjusted completion rate, and 15th in aDOT. He did open that season by throwing for 309 yards against Baltimore and throwing for 307 against the Browns (with four passing touchdowns), so there is some hope here that Flacco can offer at least league-average quarterback play this week. The Rams have been a pass funnel since Week 7, allowing the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the 11th-highest CPOE. Flacco won’t be in consideration in most 1QB formats, but in Superflex, there are worse QB2 options that you can trot out there. Week 13 Positional Value: QB2

Matthew Stafford: Stafford had his best fantasy outing of the season last week as the QB7 in fantasy, which was fueled by four passing scores. That was only the second game of the season in which Stafford has had multiple passing touchdowns. Outside of the passing touchdown variance assisting Stafford, he has not played well since his return. Since Week 11 among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 16th in catchable throw rate. The Rams should look to limit Stafford’s passing attempts this week against a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest CPOE, and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Week 13 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Jerome Ford: Ford has played at least 64% of the snaps in three of the last four games. In those three contests, Ford averaged 18.6 touches and 88.3 total yards. Ford is the RB25 in fantasy, ranking 17th in carries and 13th in targets. Ford has been one of the best tackle breakers in the NFL this season, ranking 19th in missed tackles forced and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Ford will be running uphill all day against a run defense that, since Week 7, has allowed the lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt, along with the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. Ford is a volume play only. Week 13 Positional Value: RB3

Kareem Hunt: Hunt is a sit. Last week, he played his lowest snap rate since Week 7, with only 26% of snaps played with seven touches and 22 rushing yards. Hunt looked like a shell of himself all season. The Rams are not a team to run on, so I doubt Hunt has success this week. Since Week 7, Los Angeles has allowed the lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt, along with the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

Kyren Williams: Don’t let last week’s 61% snap share fool you. Bellcow Williams is back. Last week, in the first half with the game within two scores, Williams played 77% of the snaps for the Rams. If the Cardinals could have kept the game close, we would have seen a 70-75% snap rate for Williams. The reduction in second-half snaps didn’t stop Williams from destroying the Cardinals for the second time this season with 22 touches, 204 total yards, and two scores. Williams is an elite play this week. Williams ranks 14th in explosive run rate, 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. The Browns’ secondary has been fearsome all season, while their run defense has been as soft as a sponge. Since Week 7, it has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: Elite RB1

Royce Freeman: Royce Freeman is a volatile flex play this week that could pay off. Last week, Freeman had 13 carries for 77 rushing yards and a score while playing 34% of the snaps. Williams played 77% of the snaps in the first half, so Freeman’s usage could have looked different if the Cardinals could have kept it closer. The same type of runaway Rams win could play out this week. If it does, Freeman could see 10-15 carries in a fantastic rushing matchup. Among 55 qualifying backs, Freeman ranks 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 7, Cleveland has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: Dice roll flex play

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: Cooper didn’t show up on the injury report to open the week after taking a huge shot to the ribs last week, so for now, we’ll assume that he plays his usual allotment of snaps this week. Cooper has a 21.5% target share, a 40% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 27.4% first read share. Since Week 7, the Rams have had the 12th-highest rate of single-high. Against single-high Cooper has a 21.9% target share, a 38.1% air-yard share, 2.38 YPRR, and a 27.6% first-read share. Since Week 7, the Rams have allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3

Elijah Moore: Moore is the WR60 in fantasy, but his arrow has been trending up with five red zone targets in his last seven games and at least 44 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Since Week 7, the Rams have had the 12th-highest rate of single-high. Against single-high, Moore has a 21.9% target share, 1.15 YPRR, and a 23.5% first-read share. Moore is an interesting flex this week. Since Week 7, the Rams have allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Moore leads the team with four end zone targets against single-high. Week 13 Positional Value: Dart throw flex with upside

Cooper Kupp: In the last four games that Kupp has played at least 84% of the snaps, he has had a 21.3% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, and a 26.7% first read share, producing only 1.00 YPRR and 29 receiving yards per game. Since Week 7, Cleveland has trotted out single high at the highest rate (69.1%) in the NFL. Kupp’s numbers don’t look any better against single-high with only 1.08 YPRR. To make matters worse, Kupp has only two red zone targets over his last five games played. It’s sad to say, but Kupp is difficult to trust in your lineups these days. Since Week 7, the Browns have allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers (Kupp 53% slot). Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3

Puka Nacua: In the last four games with Kupp playing a full-time role, Nacua has had a 27.0% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 2.23 YPRR, and a 31.2% first-read share. He has also led the team, with 21.2% of his looks coming on designed plays (Kupp 3.8%). Since Week 7, Cleveland has trotted out single high at the highest rate (69.1%) in the NFL. In this four-game sample against single-high, Nacua has had a 25.8% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, 3.28 YPRR, and a 30.2% first read share. Since Week 7, Cleveland has ranked 15th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2

Tutu Atwell: Since Week 7, Cleveland has trotted out single high at the highest rate (69.1%) in the NFL. This season, against single-high Atwell, it has had an 18.1% target share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 19.5% first read share. Stafford has had trouble supporting one receiving option in the offense over the last few weeks, much less the fourth or fifth option in the offense like Atwell. Atwell should have been dropped weeks ago. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

David Njoku: Since Week 7, Njoku has ranked fourth in target share (24.2%), 11th in YPRR (1.74), and fifth in first-read share (27.7%) among 36 qualifying tight ends. Since Week 7, Njoku has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game and has seen a ridiculous 12 red zone targets. Njokku has a beautiful matchup this week against a Rams defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1

Tyler Higbee: I refuse to get sucked into recency bias and recommend Higbee as a target after his two-touchdown performance last week. Prior to Week 12, Higbee finished with more than 25 receiving yards only once since Week 5. He has seen more than three targets only once since Week 4. Cleveland is the worst matchup for tight ends. They have allowed the lowest fantasy points per game and the fewest receiving yards per game to the position. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• SF -3, O/U 48
• 49ers vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The 49ers have morphed into a slow-and-throw team. Since Week 7, they still rank dead last in neutral pace, but they have been 14th in neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 7, Philly has been 19th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: Brock Lobster is the QB11 in fantasy points per game this season. He has finished as a QB1 in 55% of his games. Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt and passer rating while also sitting at 12th in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 7, Purdy’s accuracy has improved as he ranks eighth in catchable target rate, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and second in CPOE. This should have been expected the farther away from the arm injury we have gotten, but it’s still nice to see. The Eagles’ pass defense has fallen off as the memories of 2022’s dominance are tough to recall. Since Week 7, Philly has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, the third-most passing yards per game, and the 12th-highest CPOE. Over their last five games, they have especially struggled to defend the deep ball, giving up the 11th-most deep passing yards per game, the third-most deep passing touchdowns, and the sixth-highest deep completion rate. Purdy should have plenty of time in the pocket to wind up deep against a pass rush that, since Week 7, has ranked 17th in pressure rate and 16th in time to pressure. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the QB2 in fantasy as he continues to rack up production on the ground. Hurts ranks first in carries per game, red zone carries per game, and rushing touchdowns. This is not to say that he still isn’t one of the best passers in the NFL because he is. Hurts ranks seventh in yards per attempt, third in CPOE, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in hero throw rate. Since Week 7, the 49ers have been a neutral to above-average matchup for passing attacks, ranking 15th in yards per attempt with the sixth-highest CPOE and second-highest adjusted completion rate allowed. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is the RB1 in fantasy, ranking second in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, and second in weighted opportunities. He is also top-three in carries, targets, and red zone touches among running backs. He has averaged 21.9 touches and 120.8 total yards. Among 55 qualifying backs, McCaffrey ranks tenth in explosive run rate and 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt. McCaffrey will crush a porous Eagles’ run defense. Since Week 7, Philly has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate and the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (McCaffrey 61.7% zone) while also ranking 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB12 in fantasy, averaging 19.3 touches and 96.8 total yards (since Week 2). Swift ranks 14th in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, and 10th in weighted opportunities. He is also sixth in carries and 12th in red zone touches among running backs. Swift ranks 12th in explosive run rate and 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt. He should shred the 49ers’ run defense that has massive discrepancies in what they’ve allowed to zone and gap runs this season. The 49ers haven’t been impervious overall, ranking 15th in explosive run rate and ninth in yards after contact per attempt since Week 7, but where they truly struggle is against zone runs. Against gap runs, they have allowed only 3.16 yards per carry, but versus zone they have given up the tenth-highest yards per carry (4.53) and the second-highest success rate since Week 7. Swift should see 15-20 touches this week. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1/2

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell is only a handcuff at this stage. Over the last four weeks, he has played only 30-37% of the snaps, averaging 4.3 touches and 22.6 total yards. Stash him if you have Swift. Week 13 Positional Value: Handcuff

Wide Receivers

SF vs. single-high per Fantasy Points Data in Weeks 1-5, 11-12

SF vs. man coverage per Fantasy Points Data in Weeks 1-5, 11-12

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR12 in fantasy while leading the 49ers in deep targets (14). His issue remains with his lack of a red zone role, with only one target inside the 20-yard line since Week 4. Aiyuk won’t need the red zone looks this week, though. Since Week 7, the Eagles have operated with the seventh-highest rate of man coverage (33.5%) and with 57% of their defensive snaps in single-high (PHI: fourth-highest fantasy points per dropback allowed in single-high). Aiyuk has destroyed single-high and man coverage, with Samuel in the lineup leading the team in target share, air-yard share, and YPRR against both. Adding Aiyuk’s deep pass game role on top of this, he is set to smash this week. Since Week 7, the Eagles are tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR1

Deebo Samuel: Samuel is the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 7, the Eagles have operated with the seventh-highest rate of man coverage (33.5%) and with 57% of their defensive snaps in single-high (PHI: fourth-highest fantasy points per dropback allowed in single-high). Samuel has taken a back seat against single-high and man coverage this season, with Aiyuk and Kittle leading the way. He hasn’t eclipsed 1.4 YPRR or a 17% first-read share against either man coverage or single-high. Samuel should offer solid WR3 production this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR5 in fantasy, ranking second in deep targets. Brown has four red zone looks in his last five games. He’s been relatively quiet over the last three games by his standards, only surpassing 60 receiving yards once. This week, Brown should smash. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 57.5% of their defensive snaps, but last week, it climbed to 62.9% with Talanoa Hufanga out for the season. Among 88 qualifying receivers against single-high, Brown ranks second in target share (34.7%), first in air-yard share (51.2%), third in YPRR (3.87), and first in first-read share (45.1%). Among the same sample of wide receivers, Brown is third in fantasy points per route run against single-high. Brown will dominate this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the WR17 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in deep targets. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 57.5% of their defensive snaps, but last week, it climbed to 62.9% with Talanoa Hufanga out for the season. Against single-high, Smith has a 19.4% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, 1.20 YPRR, and a 19.7% first-read share. His fantasy points per route run have cratered to 0.28, which, among 88 qualifying wide receivers, ranks 62nd immediately behind Robert Woods. This doesn’t project as a Smith smash week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle should bounce back this week after a rare down game in Week 12. Kittle is the TE4 in fantasy, ranking first in deep targets and eighth in red zone looks among tight ends. Kittle is third in receiving yards and yards after the catch. Since Week 7, the Eagles have operated with the seventh-highest rate of man coverage (33.5%) and with 57% of their defensive snaps in single-high. Against single-high and man coverage, Kittle has been the 49ers’ second option in the passing game, with a 21.2% target share against single-high and a 21.8% target share versus man coverage. He ranks second in YPRR against both coverage types, with Samuel healthy. Kittle leads the team with a 25.6% first read share against man coverage while also noting he also leads the team with three end zone targets against single-high. Kittle should crush souls this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and is tied for the most receiving touchdowns per game given up to tight ends. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1

Dallas Goedert: Goedert has been listed as doubtful. Even if Goedert returns this week, the matchup isn’t great for him. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 57.5% of their defensive snaps, but last week, it climbed to 62.9% with Talanoa Hufanga out for the season. In Weeks 1-9, against single-high, Godert saw strong usage with an 18.1% target share, 1.41 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share. The issue is that the 49ers have been good at defending tight ends, allowing the sixth-lowest fantasy points per game, the lowest yards per reception, and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns per game. We’ll see if he can give it a go this week, but even if he suits up, Goedert is only a low-end TE1 this week. Week 13 Positional Value: Low-end TE1 (if active)

SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers

• KC -6.5, O/U 42.5
• Chiefs vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 7, Kansas City has been 12th in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.
• Over their last six games, the Packers have ranked 18th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Despite the up-and-down nature of the Chiefs offense recently, Mahomes is the QB6 in fantasy points per game. There have been no issues with his level of play this season, as he ranks fourth in passing touchdowns, tenth in passer rating, and seventh in CPOE. Jared Goff made the Packers pass defense and pass rush look amazing on Thanksgiving, but if we’re being honest, they have been an average unit. Since Week 7, Green Bay has ranked 17th in CPOE and adjusted completion rate while allowing the 13th-highest passer rating. Over the same timeframe, they ranked 14th in pressure rate with the tenth-lowest time to pressure. Mahomes shouldn’t have many issues against this defense in Week 13. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1

Jordan Love: Love has climbed to QB10 in fantasy points per game with QB12, QB9, and QB5 outings over the last three weeks. I know I haven’t been the biggest Love supporter this season, but I have to give credit where it’s due. Since Week 10, Love has been playing much, much better. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he has been ninth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and seventh in CPOE. In deeper accuracy metrics, he has really shined, ranking eighth in adjusted completion rate, 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth-lowest in turnover-worthy throw rate. This week will be a true litmus test for Love. We shall see if this has been a flash in the pan or if this new version of Love is for real. Since Week 7, the Chiefs have allowed the seventh-fewest passing touchdowns, the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the 10th-lowest CPOE, and the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Over their last five games, Kansas City has also ranked 12th in pressure rate and 10th in time to pressure. Since Week 10, Love has looked like an entirely different quarterback against pressure, ranking fourth in passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and sixth in adjusted completion rate against pressure. Week 13 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.6 touches and 81.1 total yards (since Week 2). Pacheco ranks 16th in explosive run rate and 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt. He is 19th in snap share, 12th in opportunity share, 18th in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. Pacheco should slice through the cheesehead run defense. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1/2

A.J. Dillon: In his four starts this season, Dillon has been underwhelming, and that’s putting it kindly. He has averaged 16 touches and 63.2 total yards with RB33, RB56, RB13, and RB25 weekly finishes. Dillon has been running like a fullback this season. Among 55 qualifying backs, Dillon ranks 40th in explosive run rate and 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Dillon’s matchup this week is amazing. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the highest yards per carry to zone runs (Dillon 51.1% zone). It’s fair to question if Dillon can take advantage of this amazing matchup, though. Week 13 Positional Value: RB3 (if Jones is out)

Aaron Jones: Jones has been ruled out. 

Wide Receivers

Rashee Rice: Last week, Rice had a 63.2% route run rate, a 29.4% target share, a 29.4% air-yard share, 4.46 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. The rookie genie is out of the bottle. After Rice’s eight receptions and 107 receiving yard explosion last week, I don’t see the team cutting his snaps again. Rice also graduated into an outside receiver role, running 66.7% of his routes on the perimeter last week. Rice is 16th among wide receivers in red zone targets this season. Since Week 7, Green Bay has allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2

Christian Watson: Watson is coming off arguably his best game of the season. Since Week 5, he has had a 16.6% target share, a 36.8% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share (first on the team). Since Week 7, Kansas City has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.7%). Against two-high, Watson has seen his target share fall to 14.6%, his air-yard share dip to 25.6%, his YPRR crater to 0.55, and his first-read share flop at 18.8%. All of these numbers paint a grim picture for Watson in Week 13. Sit him if you can. Week 13 Positional Value: Sit

Romeo Doubs: Doubs could lead Green Bay in receiving production this week. Since Week 7, Kansas City has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.7%). Against two high since Week 5, Doubs has had a 19.8% target share, a 31.3% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 24.6% first read share. Doubs could get shadowed by L’Jarius Sneed this week, which would be crippling for him. Sneed has been lockdown as a shadow corner. Sneed has followed Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore, Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and Josh Palmer on at least 54.3% of their routes. In shadow coverage, Sneed hasn’t allowed a receiving touchdown, and only Adams has finished with more than 50 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4

Jayden Reed: Reed didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday (chest). He managed a limited practice on Friday. Over the last two weeks, Reed has had a 72.7% route run rate, an 18.1% target share, a 15.3% air-yard share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 23.5% first-read share. Reed is in the flex conversation again this week. Kansas City has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers since Week 7. Since Week 7, Kansas City has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (70.7%). Against two high, Reed has had a 12.7% target share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 15.5% first-read share. Week 13 Positional Value: Solid flex play

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce is a must-start weekly. Yes, I know that is groundbreaking info. Kelce is the TE1 in fantasy, ranking second in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He is sixth in deep targets and second in red zone targets. Do you really need me to discuss the matchup for Kelce? I didn’t think so. Play him. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1

Tucker Kraft: Last week, Kraft had an 82% route run rate, a 6.3% target share, and a 4.3% first-read share. Both of his targets came inside the red zone last week. He spiked a touchdown to save his day and finish as the TE11 in fantasy. This is not the week to consider streaming him. Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Week 13 Positional Value: TE2

SEA vs. DAL | IND vs. TEN | LAC vs. NE | DET vs. NO | ATL vs. NYJ | ARI vs. PIT | CAR vs. TB | MIA vs. WAS | DEN vs. HOU | CLE vs. LAR | SF vs. PHI | KC vs. GB | CIN vs. JAC