Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Snap Counts

To prepare you for Week 4…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

Along with snap counts…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Takeaways

My Week 3 NFL rapid reactions…?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Outlook

New York Giants

Buy Darren Waller, Buy Matt Breida, Add Wan’Dale Robinson

Thursday night was a night to forget for Big Blue.

No Saquon Barkley led to a split backfield between Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell. Although Breida dominated with an 82% snap share to Brightwell’s 18%, the starter totaled just four carries for 17 yards and 1 TD. Brightwell also had four carries, while each RB saw three targets.

If you had to start Breida out of desperation, the TD saved you in Week 3. But the Giants showed zero interest in trying to establish any kind of ground attack versus the 49ers, despite it working in a small sample size. However, I’d be more optimistic about Breida in Week 4 if Barkley is still out versus the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night football. And let’s not pretend like Barkley is any lock to return for Week 4 with his ankle injury track record. The initial timetable for his return was three weeks, so buy low on Breida for those thinking he was just a desperate one-week rental.

As for the receivers, nobody produced much of anything and the target pecking order remained the same.

Darren Waller remained Daniel Jones‘ favorite target – 22% target share, 7 targets – and his usage was elite. 80% route participation and an 82% snap share. But his efficiency was horrible. A few drops and back throws from Danny Dimes resulted in just three catches for 20 yards. As someone who bet over on Waller’s 4.5 receptions Thursday night, it was frustrating to watch with the opportunity ripe for the taking. Still, the tight end position is a wasteland, and the matchup was tough.

The Giants passing game has faced two of the league’s best defenses in their three games, which has definitely played a role in two lackluster performances. With Seattle and Miami coming up, we will see Waller’s fantasy production improve. He’s clearly the No. 1 target in his offense (21% target share, 20 targets) which cannot be said for a lot of tight ends.

Buy low.

As for the “Giants” WRs, the major change was the injection of second-year WR, Wan’Dale Robinson. He was playing in his first game since he tore his ACL, and picked up where he left off. Vacuuming up targets. He ran 9 routes and was targeted five times for 4 catches and 21 yards. Super high target rate per route run (55%).

As a result, Parris Campbell‘s route participation dropped from 77% during Weeks 1-2 to 41% in Week 3. Would presume that Robinson fully supplants Campbell as he gets healthier from the injury and takes on the slot role full-time. Add him off waivers.

Isaiah Hodgins‘ route participation stayed the same (65%) while Jalin Hyatt‘s role increased a bit. 32% snap share versus a 21% snap share in Week 2 (zero targets). Hyatt offers the salivating big-play upside that he could fully unlock with a full-time role. But they are slowly playing him. Meanwhile, Robinson could be looking at a double-digit target game as soon as Week 4 comes around.

Tennessee Titans

Sell Derrick Henry, Buy Treylon Burks

The Tennessee Titans fell behind 13-3 in the first half and it was a lackluster day for Derrick Henry. 11 carries for just 20 yards. Zero targets. Tyjae Spears out-snapped him in the first half – four carries for 6 yards. He also had four catches for 3 yards on 4 targets with the team facing a negative game script.

Spears would out-snap Henry by a grand total of 56% to 38% in Week 3. Henry has now been out-snapped in two of three games by Spears. He has one game with above 50% snap share this season.

If Henry is their best player on offense, why is he not getting the ball more? Are the Titans losing faith? Either way, Spears’ constant usage is not going away and will hinder Henry for the rest of the season. The offensive line is still horrible. I’d be selling Henry for those who think he has a true fantasy RB1 upside. Looks to me like a fantasy RB2 given his current situation.

All Titans WRs underwhelmed versus the elite Browns defense. A matchup that needs to be avoided for fantasy football. DeAndre Hopkins saw a team-high 7 targets (29% target share), catching 3 for 48 yards. But his usage remained low like last week. Ran fewer routes than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who led the team with a 93% route run rate.

Treylon Burks also saw decent opportunities (25% target share, 125 air yards, 50% air yards share) but concluded with one catch for 5 yards. On the first play. Woof. Although I will admit that these passes were just defended well by the Browns’ secondary not just prayer yards. Think there’s some legitimacy to buying Burks as a buy-low target based on his high-value opportunities.

Burks has nearly just as many air yards as Hopkins through three games (33% vs. 35%) but has just 6 catches for 99 yards. Hopkins leads with a 30% target share.

Is Ryan Tannehill just that bad? Or is it the entire offense? Note that they only scored three points because the Browns fumbled giving Tennessee the ball inside the red zone. Through three games, their defense has faced just a handful of plays in the red zone.

-Andrew Erickson