“Put a grain of boldness into everything you do.”
-Baltasar Gracian
It’s time for weekly bold predictions.
The point here is that if you follow the consensus, you’re probably going to have a good team. But in order to go from good to great, you have to take some chances. You have to do your homework and figure out where you can zig when the rest of your league (or at least your opponent this week) zags. In short, you need to know how and when to be bold.
We asked our analysts to provide a bold prediction for Week 12. Their answers and justifications are below.
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Week 12 Bold Predictions
Parris Campbell goes NUCLEAR
Pittsburgh ranks last in fantasy points per game allowed to slot WRs. Therefore, it’s Parris Campbell SZN. In his last four games with Matt Ryan, Campbell owns a 24.5% target share. He has also averaged over 7 receptions, 9.5 targets and 67.5 receiving yards. I say he hits the 100-yard mark in Week 12 and scores.
– Andrew Erickson
Jeff Wilson finishes as a top-5 RB in Week 12
When last we saw our hero El Jeffe, he was the clear number one back in the Miami offense. Coming off a bye, with more time to absorb the playbook and a juicy matchup against Houston, Wilson is poised for a big day. Oh, did I mention his last performance was RB 6 in half PPR?? Well, I just did!
– Joe Pisapia
Drake London is a top-20 WR in Week 12
Drake London: With Kyle Pitts sidelined, London could vacuum up targets in this run-first offense. London has had no issues demanding work this year, ranking 13th in target share (27.1%) and 11th in target per route run rate (11th). The problem has been the raw passing volume (5.9 targets per game), but that could be curtailed moving forward. The rest of the wide receiver depth chart is filled with practice squad-level talents. London is 17th in PFF receiving grade and 50th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets, per PFF). London will run about 55% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (61.8% catch rate, 103.2 passer rating, per PFF).
– Derek Brown
Michael Carter will be a top-12 fantasy scorer at RB
The Jets’ QB change should give Carter’s fantasy value a nice boost. Mike White takes over for Zach Wilson, and in the three 2021 games in which White took a majority of the QB snaps, Carter had 21-205-0 receiving on 29 targets. Simply put, White is a checkdown machine. The Jets will probably try to run the ball quite a bit to take some of the pressure off White in his fourth NFL start, and Carter’s carries will come against a Bears defense that has given up 1,205 rushing yards (fifth-most in the league) and 12 TD runs (tied for third-most) to running backs this season.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Geno Smith finishes as a top-3 fantasy quarterback
Smith is No. 1 in completion percentage (72.8%) and No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.149) and AY/A (8.3) – just as we all expected before the season started.
He’s now the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year (-135 at DraftKings). At home in Seattle, Smith is 5-1 ATS and should be rested and ready off the Week 11 bye. Smith has a five-star matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.224) and pass DVOA (32.5%). Smash city.
– Matthew Freedman
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