Sleepers can mean different things to different fantasy managers. For us, we’re referring to players that we feel provide upside compared to their draft day cost, otherwise known as average draft position (ADP). Let’s take a look at our favorite early sleepers of the fantasy football draft season.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
Quarterback Sleepers
Trey Lance (SF)
ECR QB13 | ADP QB14
Trey Lance is slipping in fantasy drafts due to several reports surfacing about his underwhelming play at OTAs and because veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the roster. But after 49ers beat reporters butchered the Trey Sermon situation last season and the 49ers’ massive investment in Lance last year, I view this situation as an easy buy-low scenario.
Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery is the reason he hasn’t been traded. Coach Kyle Shanahan recently said he still thinks the 49ers will trade Garoppolo — which they were trying to do before his surgery — but that he’s not certain of the outcome. Once he is deemed healthy, I’d presume he gets moved to a QB-needy team or to a roster that sustains an injury at the position.
That sets the stage for Lance to start in Year 2 and smash for fantasy football.
He only started two games as a rookie but flashed the rushing prowess that excited fantasy managers during last year’s draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points (QB4 last season) and 60 rushing yards per game.
Lance averaged 54 rushing yards per game in his three games played with at least a 50% snap share. The mark was the highest ever by a rookie quarterback.
Justin Fields (CHI)
ECR QB17 | ADP QB17
Justin Fields has plummeted to QB18 in early best ball ADP. Everyone is afraid of the situation in Chicago. But don’t forget that a washed-up Cam Newton went from irrelevant to a top-12 ranked QB in one week last year because of rushing production.
Fields finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in his last four full games in 2021, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. He also averaged 56 rushing yards per game over his last six. All in all, Fields averaged 35 rushing yards per game during his rookie season. The last three rookie QBs to do so? Newton, Josh Allen and Robert Griffin. They all finished as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in their second seasons, with the two former QBs finishing top six.
It won’t take long for the narrative to spin on the talented Fields after he starts the season hot out of the gates. Five of the Bears’ first six matchups are against secondaries that are the weak part of their respective defense, lost talent in free agency, and/or are unproven.
In Week 1, Fields takes on the 49ers. He rushed for over 100 yards against them last season.
Jameis Winston (NO)
ECR QB21 | ADP QB22
The additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are massive benefits for quarterback Jameis Winston, who is starting to emerge from this offseason as an intriguing late-round quarterback fantasy option.
Winston played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game — good for QB14 on the year. The Saints quarterback also finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career.
Winston led all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64). He also ranked fourth in aDOT, which lends itself to spiked fantasy weeks.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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