Underdog Fantasy. By now, most of you know that Underdog has some incredible season-long best ball tournaments and weekly Battle Royale contests. However, they have another contest that will prove to have tremendous appeal to fantasy managers-their Pick ‘Em game. Simply choose two or more fantasy points, yardage, or reception totals, choose over or under, and lock in your wager. There is a ton of value to be had here for fantasy managers as we already familiarize ourselves with important information like depth charts, injuries, yards allowed, fantasy points allowed, and more. This gives us a potential competitive advantage when it comes to identifying and tackling potential values. While there are more than a few totals that will appeal to fantasy managers for Week 1 at Underdog, we will briefly discuss four that have more allure than most.
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D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA): 80.5 receiving yards vs. Colts
D.K. Metcalf is set to explode in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have some serious question marks at cornerback and do not have anyone on the roster who has proven capable of containing someone as talented as D.K. Kenny Moore and Xavier Rhodes are good corners but will have more than they can handle with the Seahawks top receiver. Metcalf hit 80 receiving yards or more in eight of his first nine contests last season and will be a strong play at any number under 86 yards. Metcalf can pick up chunk yards, so it may only take a few receptions for him to hit this number.
Pick: Over
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): 79.5 rushing tards vs. Seahawks
Jonathan Taylor will be looking to build on his excellent rookie season and has a great chance to start his season with a big game thanks to facing a declining Seahawks defense. Seattle still boasts All-Pros in Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams but has very little in terms of high-level talent around them. The Seahawks may be able to limit Taylor’s rushing yards if the gamescript forces the Colts to throw, but if he has more than a couple of drives in neutral or positive gamescript situations, Taylor should be able to hit the number. The presence of Nyheim Hines and the return of Marlon Mack has helped keep Taylor’s total low at Underdog and is something we should look to exploit while we can. Taylor rushed for 81.3 yards per game as a starter last season and should surpass that average if the Colts keep the game competitive.
Pick: Over
James Robinson (RB – JAC): 89.5 receiving + rushing yards vs. Colts
James Robinson is set to be the lead back for the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. Robinson was excellent in 2020 and will have at least one more season as a starter due to the season-ending injury to Travis Etienne. Most suspect that Urban Meyer will give Carlos Hyde a larger workload than any of the Jaguars backups saw last season, but the Houston Texans present a unique situation for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are projected to have a positive gamescript in just two to three games this season. Two of them are against the Houston Texans. Houston seems to be embroiled in an NBA-style depth tanking mission and has very little relative talent on the defensive side of the ball, making Robinson a play to strongly consider. He should see 16+ touches despite the presence of Hyde and has an excellent chance to hit 90 or more yards from scrimmage.
Pick: Over
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL): 44.5 receiving yards vs. Eagles
There were three extreme standout totals posted at Underdog for Week 1. Two of them were on Thursday night. The other is Kyle Pitts. The totals discussed above are all very strong plays, but none present the type of glaring value that Pitts presents. This total is extremely short-sighted but is in line with the industry norm for Pitts. Rookies often offer values in total propositions, and this week is no different, with other rookies like Jaylen Waddle and Ja’Marr Chase beckoning as potential values. Kyle Pitts is the Atlanta Falcons number two receiver and number one tight end. Pitts is a mega-talent and an extremely tough cover that defenses will not be able to focus on due to the emergence of Calvin Ridley. It will be a surprise if Pitts does not hit 44.5 receiving yards in one half of action. Lock Pitts into all of your plays this week at Underdog.
Pick: Over
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.
