Should you drop Cam Newton for Teddy Bridgewater?

“There is no such thing as a new idea. It is impossible. We simply take a lot of old ideas and put them into a sort of mental kaleidoscope. We give them a turn and they make new and curious combinations. We keep on turning and making new combinations indefinitely; but they are the same old pieces of colored glass that have been in use through all the ages.”

– Mark Twain, Mark Twain’s Own Autobiography: The Chapters from the North American Review

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Today’s question comes from Phil B.

I have Cam Newton and Carson Palmer as QBs that I plan to stream. Thinking of dumping Newton for Bridgewater before the season starts. Good move or bad move?

Before we begin anything, there’s a reason a common draft day mantra is “know your league settings.” It really makes a difference in how you should approach the draft and in-season management of your team. With that said, remember that anything that you read about fantasy football must take into consideration each and every league’s quirks. Also, every team is constructed differently, so strategies suitable for one team may not be ideal for someone else’s team.

Ok, let’s get to Phil’s question.

Since Cam Newton entered the league in 2011, he has finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback three out of four years. Fourth in 2011, fourth in 2012, sixth in 2013, and 17th in 2014. Last year was the first time Newton missed any games (two).

The case for Newton

• Healthy – Last year, Newton missed training camp due to offseason ankle surgery. He then suffered broken ribs, which caused him to miss a game. He missed another game because of fractures in his lower back suffered in a car accident. The myriad of injuries affected him even when he was able to play. All indications show green lights on Newton Boulevard.

• Schedule – The Panthers play a relatively soft schedule in 2015 that includes the NFC South, NFC East, and AFC South. They play the Buccaneers, Falcons and Saints twice. None of those teams possess a dominating defense. The Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins are not stout defensively. The Jaguars and Colts are porous. The Texans could pose a challenge, and the Panthers play in Seattle. They also play the Packers at home. I see two difficult matchups there.

• Maturation – Well respected film guru, Greg Cosell, was very impressed with Newton’s development last year when breaking down tape. “Newton is improving from the pocket. He’s getting to a point where you have a much better idea what you’re going to get because he runs and executes the play as it’s called.”

• Greg Olsen – The Pro-Bowl tight end has been Newton’s security blanket since he joined the Panthers the year Newton was drafted. In every year, the targets and receptions have increased. The yardage has been trending upward as well, except for a decrease of 27 yards in 2013.

• History – Newton is the only player in NFL history to have over 10,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards in his first four seasons. He’s also the only player to have over 3,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in four consecutive seasons.

The case against Newton

• Kelvin Benjamin injury – The loss of Benjamin will be huge for Newton. Benjamin hauled in 73 passes for 1,008 yards with nine touchdowns in 2014. The 6’5, 245-lb. frame was able to mitigate the penchant for Newton missing high on his throws. Benjamin was also able to slide into the outside role that Steve Smith Sr. had occupied in Newton’s first three years in the league.

• Devin Funchess – The second-round draft pick of the Panthers was slated to line up opposite Benjamin and form the Twin Towers down in Charlotte. Unfortunately, Benjamin succumbed to a torn ACL and Funchess is dealing with his own hamstring injury. The troubling thing about Funchess is his scouting profile. “Pass-catching is labored.” That’s usually not a good sign when talking about a wide receiver – someone that’s paid to catch the ball.

• Corey “Philly” Brown and Ted Ginn Jr. – The Opening Day starting wide receivers for your Carolina Panthers.

• Lower trending rushing stats – As much as Newton has improved as a passer, no one is mistaking him for Aaron Rodgers. Newton derives much of his value from his rushing prowess. The problem is that his rushing touchdown total has declined every year: 14, eight, six, five. The rushing yardage has gone from 706 to 741 to 585 and 539 last year.

Teddy Bridgewater was viewed as one of the top NFL prospects entering his 2014 college season at Louisville. In fact, he was projected to be the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. He did not disappoint his final season at Louisville, as he passed for 3,970 yards and threw 31 touchdowns with only four interceptions. But then a funny thing started to occur. The haters started coming out of en masse.

• He’s not big enough they said. Bridgewater is 6’2, 214 pounds.
• His hands are too small. They measured 9 ¼ inches.

Bridgewater 9 1/4 hands. Smaller than I thought, many thought. He played w 2 gloves at Louisville. #NFLCombine

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) February 21, 2014

Jimmy Garopollo's hands: 9 1/4. Over the threshold. He'll be fine. #NFLCombine

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) February 21, 2014

Those tweets were written 13 minutes apart.

• He had a shaky pro day. He did not wear a glove. Did Michael Jackson ever moonwalk successfully without his? Ok, this is/was a legitimate concern.

My counter to the above: JaMarcus Russell wows scouts at LSU’s pro day.

Bridgewater played in 13 games last year. He threw for 2,919 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He earned the Pepsi Rookie of the Year Award.

What are the characteristics that we look for in a quarterback?

1. Leadership – “(He’s) becoming more of a leader, and you can tell that this is more of his team as we continue to go,” Zimmer said. “He’s a lot more vocal with the guys, as far as telling them where to go and what routes they should be running. He obviously has a better command of the offense, as well.”
2. Accuracy – Completed 64.4% of his passes his rookie season, which was the third-highest mark for a rookie quarterback in NFL history.
3. Arm strength – He may not possess a cannon like Matthew Stafford, but he can make all the throws. Norv Turner “strongly believes that Bridgewater has the arm strength to make every throw he’ll ever have to make in Turner’s system.” Turner is a disciple of the Air Coryell offense, an offense predicated on timing, rhythm and forcing the defense to defend the entire field.
4. Grace under pressure –  When trailing in a game last year, Bridgewater completed 120 passes in 188 attempts (63.8%) for seven touchdowns and four interceptions. When trailing with less than four minutes to go, 10-for-15 (66.7%) with 1 TD and 1 INT. With less than two minutes to go in a game, 7-for-9 (77.8%) with 0 TDs and 1 INT.
5. Money down – Quarterbacks get paid to convert on third down. Last year, Bridgewater was spectacular:

Answer to Phil’s question

Drop Cam Newton for Teddy Bridgewater.

As talented as Newton is, the lack of weapons and high amount of punishment he’s taken over the years will hold him down. As great as LeBron James is, even he cannot do everything by himself. Yes, Newton will get his, just like how James got his, but what happened when teams started doubling and triple-teaming James? He couldn’t even get an assist because his teammates couldn’t knock down wide open jumpers.

Bridgewater is primed to take that next step. In fact, NFL.com named Bridgewater their number two “Making the Leap” player. Maybe that’s a jinx? It’s possible…if you believe in that sort of thing. Here’s my case for Bridgewater:

• Adrian Peterson returns to the Vikings. A dominant run game is going to open up the passing game.
• The Vikings have assembled an impressive array of pass-catching options – Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson and Kyle Rudolph.
• This is Bridgewater’s second year in the league and in the offense. He should have a comfort level that allows him to progress as a player.
• Bridgewater finished as the No. 22 fantasy quarterback last season. He threw for 225 yards/game last year. I don’t think it’s a stretch to project him for 250 yards/game. If he plays 16 games, that puts him at 4,000 yards on the year. Touchdowns are always difficult to project, but I believe the high 20s is possible. That would put him in top 10 quarterback territory.

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Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.