Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 16 | 6.63% | 14.29% | 245.7 | 1 | 6.52% | 11.04% | 241.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 15 | 7.60% | 0.00% | 243.2 | 2 | 6.72% | 1.39% | 234.7 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 16 | 9.56% | 0.00% | 201.3 | 3 | 7.24% | 0.00% | 182.4 | 6 | -3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 15 | 6.02% | 0.00% | 191.5 | 4 | 5.45% | 2.84% | 186.5 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 16 | 4.43% | 0.00% | 184.7 | 5 | 4.37% | 0.00% | 184.1 | 5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 5.88% | 25.00% | 184.1 | 6 | 5.05% | 15.25% | 174.9 | 7 | -1 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 16 | 3.75% | 0.00% | 183.4 | 7 | 3.96% | 2.61% | 187.3 | 3 | +4 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF) | 14 | 7.87% | 13.51% | 180.5 | 8 | 6.47% | 10.15% | 165.6 | 9 | -1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 171.7 | 9 | 5.22% | 0.00% | 162.6 | 10 | -1 |
| Keenan Allen (CHI) | 13 | 4.67% | 0.00% | 170.9 | 10 | 4.36% | 6.01% | 168.9 | 8 | +2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 15 | 4.83% | 0.00% | 160.8 | 11 | 4.89% | 0.00% | 161.3 | 11 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (SEA) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 158.4 | 12 | 6.48% | 0.00% | 157.0 | 13 | -1 |
| Stefon Diggs (HOU) | 16 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 158.1 | 13 | 4.31% | 11.54% | 152.2 | 15 | -2 |
| Amari Cooper (CLE) | 15 | 3.91% | 0.00% | 155.0 | 14 | 3.79% | 0.00% | 154.1 | 14 | 0 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 14 | 7.34% | 0.00% | 154.9 | 15 | 6.36% | 2.38% | 148.6 | 16 | -1 |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 16 | 4.57% | 0.00% | 151.8 | 16 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 157.6 | 12 | +4 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 146.6 | 17 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 137.5 | 20 | -3 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 16 | 4.72% | 0.00% | 145.5 | 18 | 3.88% | 0.36% | 140.2 | 19 | -1 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 15 | 8.51% | 18.18% | 142.0 | 19 | 7.32% | 11.24% | 130.7 | 26 | -7 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 16 | 9.26% | 0.00% | 139.6 | 20 | 7.37% | 7.33% | 127.8 | 29 | -9 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 15 | 2.56% | 0.00% | 138.8 | 21 | 3.34% | 0.00% | 146.1 | 17 | +4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) | 16 | 5.11% | 0.00% | 138.0 | 22 | 4.77% | 9.44% | 136.4 | 21 | +1 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 137.3 | 23 | 6.15% | 2.02% | 140.6 | 18 | +5 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 16 | 6.86% | 0.00% | 133.5 | 24 | 6.96% | 0.49% | 134.1 | 23 | +1 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 15 | 3.62% | 0.00% | 132.7 | 25 | 3.82% | 0.00% | 134.3 | 22 | +3 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 15 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 131.0 | 26 | 8.57% | 0.00% | 117.3 | 33 | -7 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 4.63% | 12.50% | 129.4 | 27 | 4.80% | 9.12% | 128.9 | 28 | -1 |
| Jakobi Meyers (LV) | 15 | 7.55% | 50.00% | 129.0 | 28 | 6.55% | 34.89% | 119.0 | 32 | -4 |
| Adam Thielen (CAR) | 16 | 2.92% | 0.00% | 126.8 | 29 | 3.76% | 7.01% | 134.1 | 24 | +5 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 14 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 126.6 | 30 | 4.24% | 0.47% | 129.1 | 27 | +3 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 16 | 1.53% | 25.00% | 120.7 | 31 | 3.27% | 14.51% | 131.9 | 25 | +6 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 16 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 118.6 | 32 | 3.14% | 0.00% | 119.5 | 31 | +1 |
| Tank Dell (HOU) | 11 | 9.33% | 0.00% | 118.0 | 33 | 6.64% | 2.13% | 107.3 | 40 | -7 |
| Gabe Davis (JAC) | 16 | 8.64% | 0.00% | 116.4 | 34 | 6.95% | 0.00% | 108.2 | 39 | -5 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 16 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 115.4 | 35 | 7.22% | 0.00% | 109.0 | 38 | -3 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 16 | 1.79% | 0.00% | 114.8 | 36 | 2.90% | 0.32% | 126.1 | 30 | +6 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 9 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 110.2 | 37 | 4.91% | 11.54% | 110.4 | 35 | +2 |
| Brandin Cooks (DAL) | 15 | 9.88% | 0.00% | 109.0 | 38 | 8.10% | 4.50% | 101.7 | 41 | -3 |
| Tyler Lockett (SEA) | 16 | 4.10% | 0.00% | 108.3 | 39 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 109.7 | 37 | +2 |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 12 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 105.4 | 40 | 5.98% | 7.01% | 109.9 | 36 | +4 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 15 | 1.82% | 0.00% | 101.3 | 41 | 3.40% | 0.00% | 111.7 | 34 | +7 |
| Rashid Shaheed (NO) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 97.1 | 42 | 5.18% | 1.03% | 90.8 | 45 | -3 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 12 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 95.6 | 43 | 5.83% | 0.00% | 92.2 | 44 | -1 |
| Christian Kirk (JAC) | 12 | 3.53% | 0.00% | 93.3 | 44 | 3.35% | 0.00% | 92.4 | 43 | +1 |
| Curtis Samuel (BUF) | 15 | 4.40% | 14.29% | 92.2 | 45 | 5.11% | 14.27% | 96.1 | 42 | +3 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 16 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 88.8 | 46 | 3.49% | 0.00% | 81.4 | 53 | -7 |
| Diontae Johnson (CAR) | 12 | 5.75% | 0.00% | 86.8 | 47 | 5.14% | 0.00% | 83.6 | 49 | -2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 4.30% | 0.00% | 85.4 | 48 | 4.11% | 0.00% | 84.3 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds (DEN) | 15 | 7.81% | 0.00% | 84.4 | 49 | 7.16% | 0.00% | 81.9 | 51 | -2 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 84.3 | 50 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 90.4 | 46 | +4 |
| Marquise Brown (KC) | 14 | 3.96% | 0.00% | 83.7 | 51 | 3.85% | 0.40% | 83.1 | 50 | +1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 78.4 | 52 | 3.02% | 2.01% | 84.4 | 47 | +5 |
| DJ Chark Jr. (LAC) | 14 | 7.58% | 0.00% | 77.9 | 53 | 5.86% | 0.00% | 71.1 | 60 | -7 |
| Jahan Dotson (WAS) | 16 | 4.82% | 0.00% | 74.1 | 54 | 5.30% | 0.00% | 76.5 | 55 | -1 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 15 | 2.30% | 0.00% | 73.9 | 55 | 3.50% | 0.00% | 80.1 | 54 | +1 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 9 | 9.43% | 0.00% | 73.3 | 56 | 8.44% | 1.83% | 70.6 | 61 | -5 |
| Elijah Moore (CLE) | 16 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 57 | 3.16% | 1.07% | 81.4 | 52 | +5 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. (MIA) | 14 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 72.5 | 58 | 5.39% | 0.00% | 75.2 | 56 | +2 |
| K.J. Osborn (NE) | 15 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 71.1 | 59 | 4.73% | 0.00% | 74.4 | 57 | +2 |
| Tutu Atwell (LAR) | 15 | 4.48% | 0.00% | 71.1 | 60 | 4.46% | 2.03% | 71.6 | 59 | +1 |
| Noah Brown (HOU) | 10 | 3.64% | 0.00% | 68.6 | 61 | 4.61% | 7.01% | 72.2 | 58 | +3 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 12 | 5.17% | 0.00% | 67.0 | 62 | 5.07% | 0.00% | 66.6 | 63 | -1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 14 | 1.28% | 11.11% | 64.7 | 63 | 1.94% | 7.01% | 65.5 | 64 | -1 |
| Joshua Palmer (LAC) | 10 | 3.28% | 0.00% | 63.7 | 64 | 4.30% | 0.00% | 67.4 | 62 | +2 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 15 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 63.6 | 65 | 3.81% | 7.01% | 62.3 | 68 | -3 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 16 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 63.4 | 66 | 3.43% | 0.00% | 64.8 | 65 | +1 |
| Kendrick Bourne (NE) | 8 | 7.27% | 0.00% | 63.0 | 67 | 5.94% | 0.49% | 58.6 | 72 | -5 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 14 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 62.7 | 68 | 5.59% | 1.63% | 58.2 | 73 | -5 |
| Justin Watson (KC) | 15 | 5.66% | 0.00% | 62.0 | 69 | 5.18% | 0.00% | 60.5 | 69 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson (LAR) | 8 | 10.26% | 0.00% | 61.4 | 70 | 9.51% | 1.09% | 59.7 | 71 | -1 |
| Rondale Moore (ATL) | 16 | 1.61% | 3.57% | 61.4 | 71 | 2.32% | 2.74% | 62.6 | 67 | +4 |
| Nelson Agholor (BAL) | 16 | 8.89% | 0.00% | 58.2 | 72 | 6.74% | 0.00% | 52.4 | 81 | -9 |
| Kalif Raymond (DET) | 16 | 2.27% | 0.00% | 57.4 | 73 | 2.90% | 2.18% | 60.0 | 70 | +3 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 13 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 57.0 | 74 | 5.89% | 0.00% | 54.9 | 78 | -4 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 56.9 | 75 | 1.64% | 0.37% | 64.7 | 66 | +9 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 12 | 4.76% | 33.33% | 56.3 | 76 | 3.85% | 20.66% | 51.7 | 82 | -6 |
| Trey Palmer (TB) | 16 | 4.41% | 0.00% | 55.7 | 77 | 3.85% | 0.18% | 53.4 | 80 | -3 |
| Michael Gallup (LV) | 16 | 3.51% | 0.00% | 53.8 | 78 | 3.72% | 0.00% | 54.5 | 79 | -1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 16 | 2.99% | 0.00% | 53.7 | 79 | 3.66% | 0.79% | 56.5 | 75 | +4 |
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 50.8 | 80 | 3.21% | 0.00% | 57.1 | 74 | +6 |
| Robert Woods (HOU) | 14 | 1.33% | 0.00% | 49.3 | 81 | 2.90% | 0.49% | 56.4 | 76 | +5 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 14 | 1.64% | 0.00% | 47.9 | 82 | 3.43% | 4.21% | 54.9 | 77 | +5 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 15 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 47.0 | 83 | 2.69% | 2.14% | 47.5 | 85 | -2 |
| Brandon Johnson (DEN) | 12 | 13.33% | 0.00% | 45.6 | 84 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 40.0 | 93 | -9 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. (NO) | 13 | 7.89% | 0.00% | 45.2 | 85 | 7.20% | 0.00% | 43.6 | 88 | -3 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 15 | 1.79% | 0.00% | 44.5 | 86 | 2.87% | 0.49% | 48.2 | 83 | +3 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 13 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 43.8 | 87 | 4.89% | 1.53% | 42.7 | 89 | -2 |
| Chris Moore (ARI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 43.3 | 88 | 0.92% | 0.00% | 45.2 | 86 | +2 |
| Jonathan Mingo (CAR) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 41.8 | 89 | 1.24% | 0.00% | 48.1 | 84 | +5 |
| Zay Jones | 8 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 39.4 | 90 | 4.33% | 0.00% | 44.0 | 87 | +3 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 15 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 39.1 | 91 | 4.10% | 0.00% | 37.2 | 97 | -6 |
| DeVante Parker (PHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.8 | 92 | 0.96% | 0.00% | 42.0 | 91 | +1 |
| Brandon Powell (MIN) | 16 | 2.27% | 0.00% | 37.9 | 93 | 3.90% | 0.91% | 42.5 | 90 | +3 |
| Xavier Gipson (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 12.50% | 37.3 | 94 | 2.28% | 8.93% | 40.8 | 92 | +2 |
| Allen Lazard (NYJ) | 14 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 37.1 | 95 | 2.55% | 0.00% | 38.6 | 95 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt (NYG) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 36.8 | 96 | 0.89% | 0.00% | 38.9 | 94 | +2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 16 | 2.38% | 0.00% | 35.5 | 97 | 2.81% | 0.00% | 36.6 | 98 | -1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins (NYG) | 16 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 35.4 | 98 | 6.99% | 0.00% | 31.2 | 105 | -7 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 16 | 3.33% | 9.09% | 34.9 | 99 | 2.47% | 6.24% | 31.5 | 104 | -5 |
| Trenton Irwin (CIN) | 14 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 34.2 | 100 | 5.23% | 0.00% | 38.3 | 96 | +4 |
| Skyy Moore (KC) | 14 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 32.7 | 101 | 3.97% | 1.72% | 36.1 | 99 | +2 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 13 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 32.5 | 102 | 3.38% | 0.00% | 33.2 | 102 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) | 11 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 32.0 | 103 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 33.4 | 100 | +3 |
| Mike Williams (NYJ) | 3 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 31.2 | 104 | 3.65% | 0.00% | 30.9 | 106 | -2 |
| Braxton Berrios (MIA) | 15 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 105 | 2.98% | 0.00% | 29.9 | 107 | -2 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 15 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 106 | 5.49% | 0.00% | 29.8 | 108 | -2 |
| Allen Robinson II | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 28.0 | 107 | 1.83% | 0.00% | 33.4 | 101 | +6 |
| Alex Erickson (LAC) | 7 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 26.3 | 108 | 3.05% | 0.00% | 25.6 | 112 | -4 |
| Kadarius Toney (KC) | 13 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 26.0 | 109 | 4.10% | 4.20% | 32.1 | 103 | +6 |
| Mack Hollins (BUF) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.1 | 110 | 1.65% | 0.00% | 28.1 | 109 | +1 |
| Treylon Burks (TEN) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.9 | 111 | 0.99% | 2.04% | 26.3 | 111 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.5 | 112 | 1.66% | 0.00% | 27.2 | 110 | +2 |
| Van Jefferson (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.0 | 113 | 1.30% | 0.00% | 23.4 | 114 | -1 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18.9 | 114 | 2.29% | 0.31% | 25.0 | 113 | +1 |
| Tyler Scott (CHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.7 | 115 | 2.73% | 0.81% | 23.3 | 115 | 0 |
| John Metchie III (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.7 | 116 | 2.74% | 7.33% | 21.1 | 116 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.4 | 117 | 1.45% | 0.00% | 16.3 | 117 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell (PHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.4 | 118 | 2.39% | 0.00% | 14.3 | 118 | 0 |
