2024 Fantasy Baseball Rankings (AL)

Corbin Burnes is in the last year of his contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, and it would be somewhat surprising if he still plays for them at the end of the year. The important thing to note is that his pending free agency makes him an even better draft pick in 2024 than usual. And his "usual" is still elite. Burnes landed at 200 strikeouts in 193 2/3 innings with a 3.39 ERA and microscopic 1.07 WHIP. Hitters struggle to make good contact on Burnes's pitches (avgEV of 86.4), but his K% dropped five percent to 25.5. As the third pitcher in Tier 1, he has the most to gain in 2024 and will make an excellent SP1 in fantasy.

Luis Castillo had a successful first season in Seattle, which was to be expected when he got out of Great American Ball Park. Castillo struck out 219 batters in 197 innings and started 33 games for the Mariners, striking out 10.01 K/9 and a 27.3 K%. One negative on his report card was his xERA of 3.82 and xFIP of 3.81, suggesting his 3.34 ERA may have been a bit lucky. Also of note was his 1.28 HR/9, which was the highest it had been since 2018. There is a lot to like about Castillo, but he is one of the more volatile pitchers in Tier 2.

Pablo Lopez had a great first year in Minnesota and established himself as their SP1. He threw 194 innings and struck out 234 batters. Lopez ended the season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.18, but his xERA was much lower at 3.00 with an xFIP of 3.25. Statcast has him ranked in the 98th percentile of pitching run value, and he may come at a small discount compared to where his projections have him. Lopez isn't a flashy SP1 for fantasy managers, but he offers stellar stats and consistency, which ain't bad.

George Kirby has a lot of stats to love, but the one that jumps off the page is that he walked 19 batters in 190 2/3 innings. He struck out 172 batters and carried a 3.35 ERA with 1.04 WHIP. Both his xERA and xFIP were higher than his actual numbers, but he started 31 games, and there is nothing overtly alarming in his underlying metrics. Kirby will cost you a fourth or fifth-round pick in 2024, but there is no better anchor for your ratios.

Kevin Gausman had a great second season north of the border, pitching 185 innings and striking out 237. His 11.53 K/9 was the second-highest of his career, but his walk rate went back up to 7.2% from his career low in 2022 (3.9). He has a couple of questionable metrics, namely his 3.87 xERA compared to his actual 3.16 ERA. His xFIP ended at 3.22, though, so chances are good that number will settle somewhere in the middle. His 31.1% strikeout rate might come back down to earth a little as well. Gausman is a good SP1 from Tier 2.

Tarik Skubal arrived in 2023 and quickly became the Detroit ace. He started 15 games for the Tigers, throwing 80 1/3 innings and striking out 102 batters. More impressively, he ended with a 2.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. On top of that, his xERA was 2.30, and his xFIP was 2.56, which suggests that his production was not an aberration. Looking ahead to 2024, Skubal slots in as an SP2 with an SP1 ceiling that is hard to ignore. He is worth targeting in the fourth or fifth rounds of drafts.

Framber Valdez took a step back in 2023 but still pitched 198 innings of stellar ball for the Astros. He ended with a 3.46 ERA, though his 4.33 xERA suggests he was lucky. On the other hand, his xFIP was 3.39, and he was one of 17 pitchers who struck out 200 or more. Valdez remains a cheat code in leagues with Quality Starts as a category. Even in traditional 5x5 leagues, he is an excellent SP2 with SP1 upside that you can probably get in the fifth round.

Logan Gilbert pitched 190 2/3 innings, struck out 189 batters, and ended with a 3.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The 26-year-old offered an elite BB% of 4.7, and his xERA and xFIP are in line with his actual numbers. Gilbert has started 32 games in each of the last two years, so the durability is there. He has an average K% and Whiff%, which keeps him out of an elite SP tier, but he is a solid SP3 with SP2 upside for those who want to take that risk.

I think it's fair to say that Grayson Rodriguez stumbled onto the scene in 2023. In the first half of the season, the rookie threw 45 1/3 innings and gave up 13 home runs and 21 walks on his way to a 7.35 ERA and a trip back to Triple-A. When he returned, the prospect everyone wanted to see arrived. He allowed only three home runs over his final 76 2/3 innings and finished that half with a 2.58 ERA. The good news is that the 24-year-old's second season should be more in line with the latter half of 2023. With a 94th percentile (97.4 mph) fastball velocity, Rodriguez is best considered an SP3 with an SP2 upside in 2024.

Before 2023, Zach Eflin received an abundance of "sleeper" predictions because of the Tampa Bump. Pitchers going TO the Rays are targets. Pitchers going away from them are typically labeled busts. It was difficult to believe a guy with a career ERA over 4.00 would suddenly be worth chasing. Alas, Eflin bought into his hype, apparently. He had a career-high K/9 of 9.42, striking out 186 batters in 177 2/3 innings. He ended with an ERA of 3.50, and his xFIP of 3.12 suggests he was even better than that. His WHIP was 1.02 thanks to a BB% of 3.4 and a Chase% of 34. Eflin's 2024 outlook suggests some regression but nothing to scare fantasy managers away from his SP3 draft price.

Joe Ryan started 29 games for the Twins last year, ending up with an ERA (4.51) that was almost a full run higher than in 2022 (3.55). His xERA last year, though, was 3.53, and chances are good that he was just snakebit by a .305 BABIP. He also gave up a lot of hard contact (1.78 HR/9), but he struck out 197 batters and walked fewer than two per game. He should bounce back nicely in 2024, and you can draft him in the ninth round to be your SP2 or SP3.

Cole Ragans arrived on the scene in 2023 and has quickly risen to the top of the Darlings of Fantasy Baseball. It's not hard to see why. In 96 innings, the 26-year-old struck out 113 batters while maintaining a stellar 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His fastball touches 96, but his changeup that induced a 35.6 Whiff% is the pitch that made him rise up draft boards this season. Projections have his ERA landing closer to 4.00 and his K% dropping a few points to the 25 range. (This is still solid.) As with every hot name in draft season, balancing value with excitement is essential. His current ADP of 101 feels right, considering we're not sure what we'll get from an entire season.

Tanner Bibee arrived in the majors in 2023 and produced an impressive 2.98 ERA with a promising 3.13 K/BB rate. There is a lot to like about Bibee, though it would be prudent to expect an uptick in ERA (FIP of 3.52, xFIP of 4.22) in 2024. One of the best things about him is that his ADP is in the SP "dead zone" around 107. He can serve as an SP3, though he's probably better considered an SP4 heading into drafts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Justin Verlander finally began to show his age in 2023. While his ERA was 3.22, his xERA was 3.69, and his xFIP was 4.56 across 162 1/3 innings. His K% fell to 21.5, and his BB% jumped up 6.7. His SIERA was the highest it has been since 2008, and it's also noteworthy to realize that 2008 was 16 years ago. Verlander is a name-brand pitcher, but his ADP of 120.4 is more nostalgia than skill at this point.

 

Until we know about Gerrit Cole's elbow injury, it is difficult to know how early it is worth the risk to draft him. Cole made 33 starts last season, totaling 209.0 innings pitched and struck out 222 batters. However, his K/9 of 9.56 was the lowest in the last five seasons. He remained an elite ace, allowing 157 hits and 48 walks, with a home run total of 20, reflecting his ability to limit long balls, a critical factor in his success. The Yankees are giving us nothing to go on regarding how much time their ace is going to miss, leaving it up to fantasy managers to determine what their risk tolerance is. My personal tolerance stops at "pitcher with elbow issues." Proceed with caution.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**The Orioles announced on February 15 that Bradish will open the season on the IL with a UCL sprain** Kyle Bradish had an excellent 2023 campaign. He struck out 168 batters in 168 2/3 innings, with a beautiful 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He should come with a bit of a warning for 2024, though. His xERA was 3.82, and a low .270 BABIP added a heavy filter to his Insta-worthy stats. Bradish's four-seam fastball got lit up by batters (.563 SLG), and he will need that to improve to accompany his elite slider, which induced a 36.4 Whiff%. With the injury, fantasy managers in redraft leagues should avoid the 27-year-old, only taking him as a flier in the late rounds.