Najee Harris

Harris opened this week with a DNP (ankle). He practiced in full for the rest of the week and doesn't carry an injury designation into Week 11. Harris is the RB26 this season, ranking 23rd in opportunity share, eighth in carries, and ninth in red zone touches. He has averaged 19.3 touches and 88.6 total yards per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, Harris ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. He needs a touchdown to likely pay off for fantasy this week, with a horrible rushing matchup incoming. Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, and the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate.

In the ground game, Jaylen Warren led the team with 14 carries for 66 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, with a long of 12 yards. Najee Harris carried the ball 21 times for 53 yards and scored a touchdown, averaging 2.5 yards per carry with a long of 11 yards. Harris did get banged up in this contest but returned in the fourth quarter. Five red-zone rushing attempts, one rushing touchdown.
Cordarrelle Patterson contributed 14 yards on three carries, also averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Warren had five carries in the first half to Harris' eight. Warren also had three red-zone rushing attempts, but fumbled at the goal line. Not a ringing endorsement for him to see more red-zone touches. Warren didn't touch the ball again after the fumble.
• Najee Harris: 37 snaps, 47% snap share
• Jaylen Warren: 35 snaps, 45% snap share
• Cordarrelle Patterson: 8 snaps, 10% snap share
I talked through several versions of the fantasy football forecast how slow Najee has been traditionally, so I'd like to think this is a sign of things to come. His last four games have been great. But the matchups against the Commanders, Raiders, Jets and Giants have been extremely soft spots. I have probably been too aggressive trying to be "early" on selling Harris, but the time is now.
I'd use another great game as the exact opportunity to sell high on Harris (11th in the NFL in touches). The schedule gets much tougher in the second half of the season with all six AFC North matchups. Warren is getting healthier and looking good, which could create problems for Harris in the second half of the season. Again, Warren led the Steelers in rushing with a 50% success rate in Week 10 compared to Harris' 29% success rate and 2.5 yards per carry. The two Ravens matchup and KC in the playoffs is brutal for Harris.