Fantasy Football Player Notes

The Arthur Smith experiment capsized what could have been an enormous rookie season for Robinson. He ranked ninth in snap share, third in targets, sixth in receptions, and fourth in receiving yards among running backs, but he finished as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. Robinson was the RB12 in expected fantasy points per game, but his opportunity share ranked 31st, and he was also 32nd in red zone touches with Smith's insistence on utilizing Tyler Allgeier. If Robinson receives the bulk of the high-leverage touches under the new Falcons regime, he should crush in 2024. Last year, he ranked 23rd in explosive run rate, 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and 25th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Robinson is my locked-in RB1 overall for 2024.

Allgeier is a talented rusher, but last season, he was the thorn in the side of every Bijan Robinson drafter as Arthur Smith's prized pupil. Allgeier surprised in his rookie season as the RB31 in fantasy, finishing with 226 touches and nearly 1,200 total yards. While Allgeier shocked people in 2023 with 37 red zone touches (24th) and 186 carries, he couldn't carry his rookie season efficiency into last year. Last season, among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 45th in explosive run rate and 35th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). With Smith out of town, Robinson will likely own this backfield in 2024, which leaves Allgeier as a handcuff only.