Fantasy Football Player Notes

Justin Jefferson showcased his elite talent in 2023, finishing 5th in points per game despite missing seven games and losing starting QB Kirk Cousins. With 68 receptions for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns, he commanded a 28% target share and excelled even without Cousins on the field, averaging 18.4 points per game in the final stretch. Before Cousins' injury, he led all WRs in fantasy points scored (21.7 per game). Heading into 2024, Jefferson's ability to thrive regardless of the quarterback situation positions him as one of the NFL's top receivers, supported by the offensive infrastructure set up by Kevin O'Connell. Sam Darnold will be the QB1 to start the season with J.J. McCarthy injured.

Father Time comes calling for all of us. The hope for Aaron Jones is that he can keep him at bay for one more year. Last season, Jones objectively wasn't healthy until the end of the season. Luckily for him, when he was healthy, we got to see that Jones has plenty left in the tank to consider reinvesting in him in fantasy for one more season. In Weeks 15-20, Jones averaged 21.6 touches and 120.3 total yards as he was a weekly stud. During that same stretch, among 47 qualifying backs, he was eighth in explosive run rate and 10th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Jones should lead the Vikings backfield in 2024 as an RB2 with RB1 upside if he can stay healthy.

Jordan Addison had a solid rookie campaign, recording 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns on a 17% target share. His consistent contributions earned him an average of 11 fantasy points per game, ranking him as WR28 overall. Despite his promising performance, his fantasy outlook for 2024 is clouded by uncertainty at the quarterback position following Kirk Cousins' departure. At least, the absence of T.J. Hockenson due to injury could boost Addison's role in the offense to open the season. However a potential 3-game suspension due to an alleged offseason DUI and an ankle injury that might linger into Week 1 raise serious question marks about Addison's usefulness in 2024.

With Aaron Jones now in Minnesota, Ty Chandler will be a backup for the Vikings in 2024. In Weeks 15-18, he played at least 53% of the snaps in every game, averaging 15.3 touches and 81.8 total yards. Chandler topped 90 total yards once in that four-game span, and his per-touch efficiency was in the toilet overall. Among 49 qualifying backs, Chandler ranked 47th last season in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Chandler had hope entering this offseason that he had hopefully done enough in 2023 to have a shot at the starter's role, but sadly, that isn't in the cards for next season.

T.J. Hockenson would have been drafted as a top-six tight end in the vast majority of 2024 fantasy leagues if he hadn't torn his ACL and MCL on Dec. 24, putting his early-season availability for the new season in doubt. It's possible that the recovery from multiple ligament tears will keep Hockenson out until around midseason, and that he won't be his typically impactful self immediately upon his return. A healthy Hockenson is a fantasy difference-maker. He had 86 catches for 914 yards and six touchdowns in 2022, good for a TE2 finish in PPR fantasy scoring behind only Travis Kelce. Hockenson was having an even better season in 2023, with 95 catches for 960 yards and five touchdowns before the injury. Monitor the reports on Hockenson's recovery throughout the offseason, and resist the temptation to overspend on a player trying to come back from major knee surgery.

Is it far-fetched to think that we might get a rebound from Daniel Jones in 2024 after his ugly, injury-shortened season in 2023? Optimists will note that Jones finished QB9 in fantasy points per game in 2022, fueled by 708 rushing yards and seven TD runs. They'll also point out that with the Giants spending the No. 6 pick in the NFL Draft on Malik Nabers, Jones will have a true No. 1 receiver for the first time in his professional career. The pessimists will note that in the six games Jones played last year before getting hurt, he posted a dismal passer rating of 70.5, with two TD passes and six interceptions. They'll add that Daniels has averaged fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in all five of his NFL seasons. The ceiling for Jones may be higher than some fantasy managers realize, but it's entirely possible that Jones will stumble early in the season and be replaced by Drew Lock.

With first-round rookie J.J. McCarthy out for the season with a torn meniscus, Sam Darnold is expected to be the Vikings' starter throughout the 2024, barring injury or a clamitous stumble. Perhaps we shouldn't dismiss the possibility of stumble, given that Darnold's tenures with the Jets and Panthers went poorly. In fairness, Darnold was saddled with mediocre supporting casts for some of his early NFL seasons, and the playcalling of Adam Gase (Jets) and Matt Rhule (Panthers) probably didn't do Darnold any favors either. A healthy dose of skepiticism is probably warranted when assessing Darnold's fantasy value, considering that his 78.3 career passer rating is lower than the career passer ratings for Desmond Ridder (84.1) and Drew Lock (79.5). But Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is regarded as a passing-game wizard, and Darnold will get to work with the WR duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Darnold also runs a bit, too. No one is drafting him to be a fantasy starter, but Darnold is a potentially useful backup who could become an appealing waiver option at some point this season.