Fantasy Football Player Notes

Christian Kirk ended 2023 with 57 receptions on 85 targets (21% target share) for 787 yards. But Kirk only found the end zone 3 times during the season. In 12 games, Kirk accumulated 121.8 fantasy points, averaging 11 points per game, positioning him as a reliable flex option in fantasy leagues. WR28 in points per game. When he and Calvin Ridley were both healthy, Kirk posted the higher target share at 21% as the WR23 overall. With Ridley replaced by the "can't earn targets" Gabe Davis and 1st-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (another non-elite target earner) Kirk projects as the WR1 in the Jaguars offense in target volume.

Brian Thomas Jr. emerged as a force in his junior year at LSU, boasting a 33% dominator rating and leading the FBS with 17 touchdowns. Standing at 6'4" and 205 lbs, he possesses the size and speed of a boundary X-receiver, evidenced by his impressive college production. Despite not being the primary target, Thomas still earned a 24% dominator rating, competing for catches with fellow standout Malik Nabers. Drafted by the Jaguars in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, Thomas has the opportunity to absorb a significant portion of targets left by departing players, potentially exceeding 100 targets. While he offers high-end splash week potential, his weekly consistency may vary due to Jacksonville's diverse offensive weapons.

Gabe Davis's move to the Jaguars offers him a fresh start after a mixed performance with the Bills in 2023. While he showcased his big-play ability with 7 touchdowns and 1,200 air yards, his inconsistency, including four catchless games in his last eight appearances, raises concerns. In Jacksonville, Davis could see an uptick in targets following the departures of Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley, but his boom-or-bust nature may persist. With Trevor Lawrence leading the offense and competition from established pass-catchers and rookie Brian Thomas Jr., Davis's fantasy outlook remains uncertain, making him a better fit for best ball formats where his spiked weeks could still offer value.