Rich Piazza
Fantasy Shed
Twitter: @FantasyShed
Website: http://fantasyshed.com/
Player Note on Le'Veon Bell (RB - NYJ)
Is expected to return in week 5
Player Note on Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN)
Monitor this game, as it is in jeopardy of being played.
Player Note on Josh Allen (QB - BUF)
Monitor this game, as it is in jeopardy of being played.
Player Note on Devin Singletary (RB - BUF)
With McCoy no longer in Buffalo, the opportunity is now there for Singletary to be a lead for the Bills. He's in the RB3 territory with the upside to be a RB2.
Player Note on Tom Brady (QB - NE)
Brady is going to get it done with or without Gronkowski. The only reason he's as low as he is in my rankings, is because guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, are going to provide more fantasy results with their rushing ability. Good news is that he'll have Josh Gordon at his disposal....at least for now.
Player Note on Marlon Mack (RB - IND)
There's no question that everybody on the Colts offense, including the running backs, are going to take some kind of a hit with the Andrew Luck retirement. Mack will get enough usage, and is talented enough, to still finish as a RB2.
Player Note on Jacoby Brissett (QB - IND)
Unless the Colts go out and trade for a someone, Brissett is now the starting quarterback for the Colts following the stunning retirement of Andrew Luck.
Player Note on Cam Newton (QB - CAR)
Despite the ankle sprain suffered in preseason week 3, I'm not dropping him in my rankings. His arm looks good, and he should be available for week one. You should always have a #2 QB on your roster when you draft Newton anyway.
Player Note on Josh Gordon (WR - NE)
Gordon is going to slide into right into the mid-point between a WR2 and WR3. There is always going to be risk involved in drafting Gordon, as we know he can disappear or be suspended at any point.
Player Note on Dalvin Cook (RB - MIN)
There isn't any questioning his workload, talent & upside, and that is exactly why he's ranked where his is. Just keep in mind, he hasn't been able to stay healthy and has had similar rankings / ADP the past two seasons, where he has failed to return that value.
Player Note on Le'Veon Bell (RB - NYJ)
Is expected to return in week 5
Player Note on Ryan Tannehill (QB - TEN)
Monitor this game, as it is in jeopardy of being played.
Player Note on Josh Allen (QB - BUF)
Monitor this game, as it is in jeopardy of being played.
Player Note on Devin Singletary (RB - BUF)
With McCoy no longer in Buffalo, the opportunity is now there for Singletary to be a lead for the Bills. He's in the RB3 territory with the upside to be a RB2.
Player Note on Tom Brady (QB - NE)
Brady is going to get it done with or without Gronkowski. The only reason he's as low as he is in my rankings, is because guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, are going to provide more fantasy results with their rushing ability. Good news is that he'll have Josh Gordon at his disposal....at least for now.
Player Note on Marlon Mack (RB - IND)
There's no question that everybody on the Colts offense, including the running backs, are going to take some kind of a hit with the Andrew Luck retirement. Mack will get enough usage, and is talented enough, to still finish as a RB2.
Player Note on Jacoby Brissett (QB - IND)
Unless the Colts go out and trade for a someone, Brissett is now the starting quarterback for the Colts following the stunning retirement of Andrew Luck.
Player Note on Cam Newton (QB - CAR)
Despite the ankle sprain suffered in preseason week 3, I'm not dropping him in my rankings. His arm looks good, and he should be available for week one. You should always have a #2 QB on your roster when you draft Newton anyway.
Player Note on Josh Gordon (WR - NE)
Gordon is going to slide into right into the mid-point between a WR2 and WR3. There is always going to be risk involved in drafting Gordon, as we know he can disappear or be suspended at any point.
Player Note on Dalvin Cook (RB - MIN)
There isn't any questioning his workload, talent & upside, and that is exactly why he's ranked where his is. Just keep in mind, he hasn't been able to stay healthy and has had similar rankings / ADP the past two seasons, where he has failed to return that value.
News Reaction on Alex Smith (QB - FA) - Alex Smith traded to the Washington Redkins
I'm not surprised by the trade, but I am surprised by the lengthy extension they gave him. I don't see Smith's fantasy value move in either direction with this trade, but the Josh Doctson breakout season we have been looking for may be slowed down. Smith also uses his legs, which could impact the amount of check-downs that Chris Thompson sees moving forward.
News Reaction on Rob Gronkowski (TE - FA) - Rob Gronkowski to play in Super Bowl LII?
I don't think anyone is surprised that Gronk will play in Super Bowl 52. Having Gronk out there, will give the Patriots the ability to use its entire play book without limitations. Gronk should be peppered with targets, and will find the end-zone in this one as well.
News Reaction on Adam Thielen (WR - CAR) - Adam Thielen (back) misses practice Wednesday
I have no concerns about Adam Thielen for the NFL Championship game.
News Reaction on Leonard Fournette (RB - FA) - Leonard Fournette (ankle) limited at Wednesday's practice
Limited for most of the week at practice, Fournette has been left off the injury report will be ready to go against the Patriots. Of course there is always the concern of an in-game setback, but this is the AFC Championship. Even if he misses some snaps to get re-taped, he'll be out there and be the focal point of what the Jags will try to do on offense. However, it is well known that the Belichick sets out to stop the opposing team's best player, and in this case, it will be Fournette.
News Reaction on Tom Brady (QB - FA) - Tom Brady jams hand at practice expects to be ready for Sunday
I imagine Tom Brady will be just fine for Sunday's game against the Jaguars. With the way the Patriots handle business, I wouldn't be surprised if Brady really isn't hurt at all. There's no way the team will rely on Brian Hoyer for the championship game, and even at less than 100%, Brady is the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs. The Jaguars defense is going to be more of an issue for him than the hand injury.
News Reaction on DeMarco Murray (RB - FA) - DeMarco Murray RULED OUT vs. Chiefs
Henry will be the featured back against the Chiefs. The good news for Henry is that the KC can be run on, as they give up 4.2 YPC to opposing running backs. The bad news? He averaged 1.8 YPC in week 17 against a Jags defense that also gives up 4.2 YPC to RB's. He did catch a pass in week 17 and brought it 66 yards for a TD, but his 2 targets indicate that he's not really an option in the passing game. Many think this game will be close, but I think Tennessee will be playing from behind.
News Reaction on Devin Funchess (WR - FA) - Devin Funchess (shoulder) misses practice on Thursday
Funchess should be able to go against the Saints on Sunday, but that might not mean much from a production standpoint. Funchess, now the #1 wide receiver for Carolina, has 8 receptions for 108 yards and a TD against the Saints in their two meetings combined this season. That was also with rookie Marshon Lattimore missing both of those games. Cam is going to have to look elsewhere in this one, as I don't like a banged up Funchess going up against a top rated CB in Lattimore.
News Reaction on Carson Palmer (QB - FA) - Carson Palmer retires
The retirement of Carson Palmer shouldn't have much a fantasy impact on any of the Arizona skill position players. David Johnson will come back and be the focal point of the offense regardless of who is behind center. Larry Fitzgerald has already shown that the he can be a top player regardless of the QB. However, with the Palmer retirement, as well as Bruce Arians, Fitzgerald may be forced to reconsider his future with the Cards and NFL in general. Fantasy would surely miss Fitz in this case.
News Reaction on Rob Gronkowski (TE - FA) - Rob Gronkowski suspended 1 game for late hit
Many fantasy owners are going to be without their top tight end for the first week of what could be, your fantasy playoffs. While the wire is probably lacking ideal replacement, Dwayne Allen will be available and may be your only hope. You won't get Gronk-like production out of Allen, but he should be able to give you something against a Miami defense that has given up the 4th most fantasy points to the position.
News Reaction on Eli Manning (QB - FA) - Eli Manning expected to start Week 14
This is the right move for the Giants, and you wish his consecutive games streak wasn't snapped due to ineptitude of a now, former head coach. While Eli will not be worth using, both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard get a bump in value, against a Dallas defense that could struggle in the back end.
Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
Being the underdog is nothing new for the Eagles during this post-season, and they seem to be using that status as motivation. Picking against Tom Brady and the Patriots is never a comfortable thing to do, but I actually think the Eagles could win the game outright. The Eagles need to do something that the Jaguars failed to do, and that is being aggressive and putting pressure on Brady for ALL four quarters.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Over
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 52
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
Being the underdog is nothing new for the Eagles during this post-season, and they seem to be using that status as motivation. Picking against Tom Brady and the Patriots is never a comfortable thing to do, but I actually think the Eagles could win the game outright. The Eagles need to do something that the Jaguars failed to do, and that is being aggressive and putting pressure on Brady for ALL four quarters.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Over
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 52
Against the Spread: Conference Round Picks
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9)
I'll take the points, but I also believe that the Jaguars will win outright. I've been saying for months, that I thought the Jags would be the one team that could stop Brady and company. Jacksonville will get pressure on Brady, and we all know what happens when T.B is uncomfortable.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Tough game to pick because ultimately I think it comes down to a field goal. The Vikings defense is a better all-around unit, and let's face it, they're playing with house money. If momentum carries over to the next game, there isn't much more going than what Minnesota has right now...Wouldn't it be great to see Minnesota host the Super Bowl that they're in?
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9)
I'll take the points, but I also believe that the Jaguars will win outright. I've been saying for months, that I thought the Jags would be the one team that could stop Brady and company. Jacksonville will get pressure on Brady, and we all know what happens when T.B is uncomfortable.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Tough game to pick because ultimately I think it comes down to a field goal. The Vikings defense is a better all-around unit, and let's face it, they're playing with house money. If momentum carries over to the next game, there isn't much more going than what Minnesota has right now...Wouldn't it be great to see Minnesota host the Super Bowl that they're in?
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Against the Spread: Divisional Round Picks
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Nick Foles will play better than he has the past two games, but it won't be enough to overtake the Falcons. The Philly defense is better up front than they are in the secondary, and that could mean a big day for Julio Jones in this one.
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: New England Patriots (-13.5)
It pains me to pick a team that is giving 13.5 points in the playoffs, but we are talking about the Patriots at home against the Titans. Despite beating KC last week, Tennessee doesn't seem like a playoff team, and the Patriots have been under controversy this week. That's usually not a good thing for their opponents.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
I don't expect Roethlisberger to throw 5 picks against them like he did in October, and I don't expect Blake Bortles to lead the Jags in rushing again. What I do expect, is the Jaguars defense to continue being the story. Even with Antonio Brown expected back, and Pittsburgh at home, the Jags should keep it close enough to take the points.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Minnesota gives up the fewest points and yards, while the Saints are the league's 4th highest scoring offense. Something has to give. Case Keenum has played well this season, but in what I expect to be a close game, I'll take the points with the team with the more proven quarterback.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Nick Foles will play better than he has the past two games, but it won't be enough to overtake the Falcons. The Philly defense is better up front than they are in the secondary, and that could mean a big day for Julio Jones in this one.
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: New England Patriots (-13.5)
It pains me to pick a team that is giving 13.5 points in the playoffs, but we are talking about the Patriots at home against the Titans. Despite beating KC last week, Tennessee doesn't seem like a playoff team, and the Patriots have been under controversy this week. That's usually not a good thing for their opponents.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
I don't expect Roethlisberger to throw 5 picks against them like he did in October, and I don't expect Blake Bortles to lead the Jags in rushing again. What I do expect, is the Jaguars defense to continue being the story. Even with Antonio Brown expected back, and Pittsburgh at home, the Jags should keep it close enough to take the points.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Minnesota gives up the fewest points and yards, while the Saints are the league's 4th highest scoring offense. Something has to give. Case Keenum has played well this season, but in what I expect to be a close game, I'll take the points with the team with the more proven quarterback.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
I'll give the 8 points and take the overall better team. Tennessee may be able to slow down the KC running game a bit, but Alex Smith Shouldn't have a problem throwing on them.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
This is the game that I'm looking the most forward to. Anything higher than 5 points, and I may have gone the other way with this one. Todd Gurley is just playing out of his mind, and Jared Goff has multiple weapons that will prove to be too much for the Atlanta defense.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Taking the team with Blake Bortles as the QB and giving 8.5 points is definitely a risk. The Jaguars haven't been playing too well the past couple of weeks, but that defense is just too good. The Bills don't even feel like a playoff team to me, and their best player (McCoy) won't be 100% if he plays.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6)
Saints at home with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram? 6 points is tempting, but give me the home team with the better quarterback, running back and #1 wide receiver. Plus the defense isn't too bad either!
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
I'll give the 8 points and take the overall better team. Tennessee may be able to slow down the KC running game a bit, but Alex Smith Shouldn't have a problem throwing on them.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
This is the game that I'm looking the most forward to. Anything higher than 5 points, and I may have gone the other way with this one. Todd Gurley is just playing out of his mind, and Jared Goff has multiple weapons that will prove to be too much for the Atlanta defense.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Taking the team with Blake Bortles as the QB and giving 8.5 points is definitely a risk. The Jaguars haven't been playing too well the past couple of weeks, but that defense is just too good. The Bills don't even feel like a playoff team to me, and their best player (McCoy) won't be 100% if he plays.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6)
Saints at home with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram? 6 points is tempting, but give me the home team with the better quarterback, running back and #1 wide receiver. Plus the defense isn't too bad either!
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Start/Sit Week 15
Give us a player (non tight end) outside of our top 100 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start and tell us why you think he has upside this week.
Wayne Gallman. With the Giants in evaluation mode for the rest of the 2017 season, they could be looking to see more of Wayne Gallman over the next few weeks. We already saw Gallman dominate the snaps (46%) in the Giants backfield in week 14, and ran the ball effectively with his 12 carries. Gallman is their best option in the passing game as well, and with the team expected to be playing from behind, we could see another 7 reception day out of him.
On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Dion Lewis. While we finally seem to have clear-cut roles for the New England running backs, week 15 in Pittsburgh doesn't bode well for Dion Lewis based on expected game flow. He'll get his share of receptions, but with both defenses struggling against the pass, Lewis can find himself in a similar situation as week 14 when he only had 5 carries for 17 yards.
Wayne Gallman. With the Giants in evaluation mode for the rest of the 2017 season, they could be looking to see more of Wayne Gallman over the next few weeks. We already saw Gallman dominate the snaps (46%) in the Giants backfield in week 14, and ran the ball effectively with his 12 carries. Gallman is their best option in the passing game as well, and with the team expected to be playing from behind, we could see another 7 reception day out of him.
On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Dion Lewis. While we finally seem to have clear-cut roles for the New England running backs, week 15 in Pittsburgh doesn't bode well for Dion Lewis based on expected game flow. He'll get his share of receptions, but with both defenses struggling against the pass, Lewis can find himself in a similar situation as week 14 when he only had 5 carries for 17 yards.
Start/Sit Week 14
Give us a player (non tight end) outside of our top 100 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start and tell us why you think he has upside this week.
Trent Taylor caught all six of his targets last week against the Bears. In week 14 he faces a Houston defense that certainly isn't anything to be worried about. With Jimmy Garoppolo making his 2nd start. Taylor could be looking at wr4/flex consideration
On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Latavius Murray. Murray has put up double digit fantasy points in 4 straight games, but faces a tough Carolina defense that gives up the 6th fewest fantasy points to running backs. This will be a McKinnon week.
Trent Taylor caught all six of his targets last week against the Bears. In week 14 he faces a Houston defense that certainly isn't anything to be worried about. With Jimmy Garoppolo making his 2nd start. Taylor could be looking at wr4/flex consideration
On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 Flex is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?
Latavius Murray. Murray has put up double digit fantasy points in 4 straight games, but faces a tough Carolina defense that gives up the 6th fewest fantasy points to running backs. This will be a McKinnon week.
Go to the Fantasy Accuracy Reports to see how this expert stacks up.