Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
Twitter: @themick23
Website: https://www.fantraxhq.com/
Player Note on Jalen Hurts (QB - PHI)
Jalen Hurts failed to throw a touchdown pass last week, but scored his ninth rushing touchdowns in the last five games. That softened the blow a bit for fantasy managers, as Hurts posted his ninth top-15 weekly finish in 10 games. Hurts should be in for another high-end performance when the Eagles face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12.
Player Note on Garrett Wilson (WR - NYJ)
Garrett Wilson was a casualty of New York's no-show in Arizona last week. Wilson caught five of six targets but for just 41 scoreless yards. Despite last week's results, the volume should continue to be there for the NFL's target leader. That should keep Wilson in the WR1 conversation in most formats in Week 11 against the Indianapolis Colts. This should be a favorable matchup for Wilson. The Colts rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts, as well as 22nd in DVOA defensively against the pass.
Player Note on Terry McLaurin (WR - WAS)
Terry McLaurin has been one of the most consistent fantasy wide receivers in the entire league this season. After struggling out of the gate in the first two weeks, McLaurin has finished as a top-20 fantasy wideout in seven of the last eight weeks. His worst weekly finish was a WR27 effort in Week 5. Even in that game, McLaurin scored 11.4 fantasy points in Half-PPR formats. Washington will face the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, and McLaurin should be Jayden Daniels' favorite target once again. The Eagles rank seventh in DVOA versus the pass, but just 23rd versus number-one receivers. McLaurin's ceiling is not generally as high as most WR1s, but his floor has been high enough for fantasy managers to trust him in this spot.
Player Note on Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR - SF)
Deebo Samuel Sr. had an efficient day in San Francisco's victory last week, but it did not result in a surplus of fantasy points. Samuel Sr. caught five of six targets for 62 yards, adding three carries for 14 yards. San Francisco hosts the Seattle Seahawks in Week 11. Seattle has struggled defensively in recent weeks, which should improve Samuel Sr.'s outlook. Fantasy managers should continue to treat Samuel Sr. as a low-end WR1 this week.
Player Note on Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA)
Though he finally scored a touchdown for the first time since Week 1, it was not all sunshine and rainbows for Tyreek Hill or his fantasy managers. Hill had just three grabs for 16 yards, finishing as the WR23 for the week. Hill gets a solid Week 11 matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders this week. However, Hill is still dealing with a wrist injury, and is just not seeing the volume we have grown accustomed to in recent years. Tagovailoa has targeted Hill just 18 times in three games since returning from his latest concussion. Last season, Hill's lowest target total in a three-game span was 24. Until Hill either returns to full health or last year's level of volume, it will be hard to trust him as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver.
Player Note on Puka Nacua (WR - LAR)
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp each returned three weeks ago. If you exclude the game in which Nacua was ejected early for throwing a punch, he has 16 catches for 204 yards. Nacua has finished as a top-20 wideout in both games despite not catching a touchdown. This week the Rams square off with the New England Patriots. New England ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, including 24th against number-one receivers and 28th versus number-two receivers. Regardless of which wideout you think fits into each of those boxes, both Rams wide receivers should continue to produce this week.
Player Note on Cooper Kupp (WR - LAR)
Cooper Kupp has finished as a WR2 in 12-team leagues in each of his three games since returning to the lineup last month. Kupp secured all seven of his targets last week, and now has 18 catches over the past two weeks. He will continue to be a major part of the Rams' passing attack this week against the New England Patriots and their 30th-ranked passing defense. Keep Kupp locked into starting lineups this week as one of the few receivers who can score double-digit fantasy points even when he doesn't score a touchdown.
Player Note on George Pickens (WR - PIT)
George Pickens has recorded 276 receiving yards in three games since the Pittsburgh Steelers transitioned to Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback. This is the first stretch in Pickens' three-year NFL career in which he has had at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games. Expect PIckens to keep that streak alive when the Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. They also rank last in the NFL in DVOA against number-one wide receivers. Consider Pickens a top-10 fantasy wideout this week.
Player Note on Nico Collins (WR - HOU)
Houston Texans' wide receiver Nico Collins has been out since Week 5 due to a hamstring injury. Collins is expected to return in Week 11 when Houston faces the Dallas Cowboys. Though there is some risk associated with trusting players coming off a significant layoff, there is a lot to like about Collins' Week 11 prospects. Dallas ranks 31st in EPA and 29th in DVOA against opposing passing attacks this season. Collins earned 43 targets (10.8 per game) in Houston's first four games of the season en route to leading all wide receivers in fantasy points over the first month of the 2024 season. If he gets that level of volume this week, he could put up monster numbers against the Cowboys. Since this game is on Monday night, fantasy managers will need to ensure Collins' availability for this game. Assuming there are no setbacks, Collins should pick up right where he left off on Monday night.
Player Note on Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
Justin Jefferson had his best matchup of the season last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So naturally, he finished with a season-low 48 yards. Go figure. Perhaps the recent return of tight end T.J. Hockenson will continue to cut into Jefferson's workload just a bit. We should get a bit of clarity on that issue this week when the Vikings play the Tennessee Titans. Justin Jefferson should bounce back against Tennessee's pass-funnel defense, so treat him as an elite WR1 in Week 11.
Player Note on Jalen Hurts (QB - PHI)
Jalen Hurts failed to throw a touchdown pass last week, but scored his ninth rushing touchdowns in the last five games. That softened the blow a bit for fantasy managers, as Hurts posted his ninth top-15 weekly finish in 10 games. Hurts should be in for another high-end performance when the Eagles face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12.
Player Note on Garrett Wilson (WR - NYJ)
Garrett Wilson was a casualty of New York's no-show in Arizona last week. Wilson caught five of six targets but for just 41 scoreless yards. Despite last week's results, the volume should continue to be there for the NFL's target leader. That should keep Wilson in the WR1 conversation in most formats in Week 11 against the Indianapolis Colts. This should be a favorable matchup for Wilson. The Colts rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts, as well as 22nd in DVOA defensively against the pass.
Player Note on Terry McLaurin (WR - WAS)
Terry McLaurin has been one of the most consistent fantasy wide receivers in the entire league this season. After struggling out of the gate in the first two weeks, McLaurin has finished as a top-20 fantasy wideout in seven of the last eight weeks. His worst weekly finish was a WR27 effort in Week 5. Even in that game, McLaurin scored 11.4 fantasy points in Half-PPR formats. Washington will face the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, and McLaurin should be Jayden Daniels' favorite target once again. The Eagles rank seventh in DVOA versus the pass, but just 23rd versus number-one receivers. McLaurin's ceiling is not generally as high as most WR1s, but his floor has been high enough for fantasy managers to trust him in this spot.
Player Note on Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR - SF)
Deebo Samuel Sr. had an efficient day in San Francisco's victory last week, but it did not result in a surplus of fantasy points. Samuel Sr. caught five of six targets for 62 yards, adding three carries for 14 yards. San Francisco hosts the Seattle Seahawks in Week 11. Seattle has struggled defensively in recent weeks, which should improve Samuel Sr.'s outlook. Fantasy managers should continue to treat Samuel Sr. as a low-end WR1 this week.
Player Note on Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA)
Though he finally scored a touchdown for the first time since Week 1, it was not all sunshine and rainbows for Tyreek Hill or his fantasy managers. Hill had just three grabs for 16 yards, finishing as the WR23 for the week. Hill gets a solid Week 11 matchup versus the Las Vegas Raiders this week. However, Hill is still dealing with a wrist injury, and is just not seeing the volume we have grown accustomed to in recent years. Tagovailoa has targeted Hill just 18 times in three games since returning from his latest concussion. Last season, Hill's lowest target total in a three-game span was 24. Until Hill either returns to full health or last year's level of volume, it will be hard to trust him as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver.
Player Note on Puka Nacua (WR - LAR)
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp each returned three weeks ago. If you exclude the game in which Nacua was ejected early for throwing a punch, he has 16 catches for 204 yards. Nacua has finished as a top-20 wideout in both games despite not catching a touchdown. This week the Rams square off with the New England Patriots. New England ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, including 24th against number-one receivers and 28th versus number-two receivers. Regardless of which wideout you think fits into each of those boxes, both Rams wide receivers should continue to produce this week.
Player Note on Cooper Kupp (WR - LAR)
Cooper Kupp has finished as a WR2 in 12-team leagues in each of his three games since returning to the lineup last month. Kupp secured all seven of his targets last week, and now has 18 catches over the past two weeks. He will continue to be a major part of the Rams' passing attack this week against the New England Patriots and their 30th-ranked passing defense. Keep Kupp locked into starting lineups this week as one of the few receivers who can score double-digit fantasy points even when he doesn't score a touchdown.
Player Note on George Pickens (WR - PIT)
George Pickens has recorded 276 receiving yards in three games since the Pittsburgh Steelers transitioned to Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback. This is the first stretch in Pickens' three-year NFL career in which he has had at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games. Expect PIckens to keep that streak alive when the Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. They also rank last in the NFL in DVOA against number-one wide receivers. Consider Pickens a top-10 fantasy wideout this week.
Player Note on Nico Collins (WR - HOU)
Houston Texans' wide receiver Nico Collins has been out since Week 5 due to a hamstring injury. Collins is expected to return in Week 11 when Houston faces the Dallas Cowboys. Though there is some risk associated with trusting players coming off a significant layoff, there is a lot to like about Collins' Week 11 prospects. Dallas ranks 31st in EPA and 29th in DVOA against opposing passing attacks this season. Collins earned 43 targets (10.8 per game) in Houston's first four games of the season en route to leading all wide receivers in fantasy points over the first month of the 2024 season. If he gets that level of volume this week, he could put up monster numbers against the Cowboys. Since this game is on Monday night, fantasy managers will need to ensure Collins' availability for this game. Assuming there are no setbacks, Collins should pick up right where he left off on Monday night.
Player Note on Justin Jefferson (WR - MIN)
Justin Jefferson had his best matchup of the season last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So naturally, he finished with a season-low 48 yards. Go figure. Perhaps the recent return of tight end T.J. Hockenson will continue to cut into Jefferson's workload just a bit. We should get a bit of clarity on that issue this week when the Vikings play the Tennessee Titans. Justin Jefferson should bounce back against Tennessee's pass-funnel defense, so treat him as an elite WR1 in Week 11.
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